Coronavirus And The Markets Update Presented by Bob Barber & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Coronavirus And The Markets Update

Presented by Bob Barber & Mary Jo Lyons

Disclosures

This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of some aspects of the current economic environment. It is designed to provide general information and is not intended to provide specific legal, investment, accounting, tax, or

• ther professional advice. The information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and

completeness is not guaranteed. For specific advice on these aspects of your overall financial plan, you should consult your professional advisor. Any asset and/or returns shown in this report are not intended to predict nor guarantee the actual results of an investment product. This presentation expresses the views of CIS Wealth’s personnel, and there is no guarantee that such views are accurate. The material provided herein is for informational purposes only and is confidential. There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses. Investment advisory services offered through Christian Investment Advisors Inc. dba CIS Wealth Management Group, a registered investment advisor.

For God has not given us a spirit of fear and timidity, but of power, love, and self-discipline.

2 Timothy 1:7 (NLT)

What Should A Christian’s Response Be To All This?

A Biblical Worldview

1. God is ultimately in Control of Everything and it ALL belongs to Him - Psalm 24:1 2. Self worth is associated with a relationship with Christ, not with net worth - John 3:16 3. Peace, Patience, Self Control, and Wisdom over Panic and Chaos - Galatians 5:22-23 4. Contentment is in Christ, not the news, the stock markets, or external circumstances - Philippians 4:12 5. Pray for each other, our nation, the world, and healing - Philippians 4:6 6. Provide Hope - now, more than ever is the time to let God’s Light shine in a desperate world that needs real hope only found in Christ. People are scared and we have the answer - Matthew 5:14-16 7. Know the financial condition of your household - monthly expenses and cash reserves - Proverbs 27:23

The United States population is approximately 330 million If 1% of the nation or 3,300,000 of us gets the Coronavirus, 1 out of every 100 people would have the infection.

The Coronavirus and Numbers

Image from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

Help is coming quickly as every major pharmaceutical company on the planet seeks a solution and will be highly rewarded when they do.

The Markets

Bear markets cause panic as the sell off period causes people to believe it’s different this time and the markets will never come back. So, those who panic sell to those who know it’s NOT different, and it will come back. After bear markets, the markets have always gone on to new highs. What makes this time any different?

Bear Markets

Bull and Bear Market Facts

Bull and Bear Market Facts (cont’d)

There are difgerent kinds of bear markets...

Source: Goldman Sachs

S&P 500 Moving Averages 60 & 90 Days

S&P 500 Moving Averages 60 & 120 Days

2008 - Subprime mortgage, housing bubble, Lehman Brothers Scandal 2000 - Dot.com bubble, Enron 1987 - Black Monday. Caused by programming and investor panic 1989 - Savings and Loan Bailout 1970 to 1974 - Vietnam, oil embargo and quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC, Nixon impeachment and high unemployment. 1958 - Major Recession 1929 - Stock market crash and the great depression following 1918 - Spanish Flu that took an estimated 20- 50 million lives

Every single time in history the rebound has gone on to newer highs

(But for disclosure purposes, I must say: Past performance is no indication of future results)

Past Bear Markets and Chaotic Times Where Markets Rebounded

Time In The Markets Vs. Timing The Markets

Be very careful of changing a long term 5-10 year strategy because of short term consequences that may last only 3-18 months

A Time For Everything

Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 (NLT) For everything there is a season, a time for every activity under heaven. A time to be born and a time to die. A time to plant and a time to harvest. A time to kill and a time to heal. A time to tear down and a time to build up. A time to cry and a time to laugh. A time to grieve and a time to dance. A time to scatter stones and a time to gather stones. A time to embrace and a time to turn away. A time to search and a time to quit searching. A time to keep and a time to throw away. A time to tear and a time to mend. A time to be quiet and a time to

• speak. A time to love and a time to hate. A time

for war and a time for peace.

The Strategy For Times Like This

Ultra Conservative - 100% Fixed income & Cash, No Stocks Conservative - 80% Fixed income & Cash, 20% Stocks. Monthly Income is taken from Fixed Income side Moderate - 40% Fixed income & Cash, 60%

• Stocks. Monthly income is taken from

Fixed income side Growth and Aggressive Growth - Not used for income. 8-10 year time horizon or longer

We make sure that those who need income from their portfolios like our retirees always have enough outside of the markets to last years if the markets turned down like they did this past month.

SOURCE: JP MORGAN and Motley Fool

It’s Time, Not Timing

JANUARY 4, 1999 - DECEMBER 31, 2018 Annualized Performance Fully invested through good and bad times (S&P 500 index) + 5.62% average return Invested through the good and bad but missed the 10 best days + 2.01% average return Invested through the good and bad but missed the 20 best days

• 0.33% average return

Invested through the good and bad but missed the 30 best days

• 2.35% average return

Invested through the good and bad but missed the 40 best days

• 4.2% average return

Invested through the good and bad but missed the 50 best days

• 5.87% average return

Invested through the good and bad but missed the 60 best days

• 7.41% average return

Risk and Portfolio Strategies

Greater risk potentially equals greater rewards which equals greater volatility. Less risk equals less rewards which equals less volatility.

What’s Your Risk Number? Let's Find Out.

https://www.ciswealth.com/what-we-offer/riskalyze/

Bucket Strategy & Diversification

Ecclesiastes 11:2 (NLT) But divide your investments among many places, for you do not know what risks

might lie ahead.

If You Can, Buy More While Markets Are On Sale

Example: Share Price before decline $100 a share: $1,000 buys 10 shares Share Price declines to $70 a share: $1000 buys 14.28 shares Share Price bottoms at $50 a share: $1,000 buys 20 shares Total Investment: $3,000 and 34.28 shares owned If price goes back to where it was when things were normal within 2 years, 34.28 shares would be worth $3,428 which computes to a average return of approximately 5% annually, not including any dividends you may receive.

The Financial Planning Process

• Review and Track Current Spending
• Do we need to adjust the levers?

○ Work Longer ○ Save More ○ Spend Less

• Re-prioritize Goals

○ Both short and long term

• Implementation
• Monitoring progress, making

adjustments

Financial Planning in the Midst of Chaos

The numbers have changed, have your questions changed?

• Am I still ok to retire?
• Do I now need to adjust my

spending?

• Should I consider doing a Roth

Conversion?

• If I reduce my equity exposure

going forward will this impact the ability to meet my goals?

That is why I tell you not to worry about everyday life—whether you have enough food and drink, or enough clothes to wear. Isn’t life more than food, and your body more than clothing? Look at the birds. They don’t plant or harvest or store food in barns, for your heavenly Father feeds them. And aren’t you far more valuable to him than they are? Can all your worries add a single moment to your life? “And why worry about your clothing? Look at the lilies (bluebonnets in Texas) of the field and how they grow. They don’t work or make their clothing, yet Solomon in all his glory was not dressed as beautifully as they are.

Matthew 6:25-29 (NLT)

Christian Fellowship

• Attend online church services
• Connect with family members and
• ld friends via Skype or Facetime
• Call an old friend who may be shut in
• Check in on your neighbors
• Read Scripture - Get into his word
• Give Generously

Give Generously - Open Your Hearts and Hands

• Support your local food bank
• Buy discounted gift cards to local

restaurants

• Support a local small business
• Encourage younger generations to make

an appointment at their local blood bank and give blood

• Engage with seniors in your

neighborhoods and local communities

• Babysit for a young mom who has to get
• ut so she doesn’t have to take her young

children with her or a young family whose parents need to work

There is no better time to consider giving to those in need and to those that have lost jobs during this crisis.

Ecclesiastes 4:9-12 (NIV) Two are better than one, because they have a good return for their labor: If either of them falls down, one can help the other up. But pity anyone who falls and has no one to help them up. Also, if two lie down together, they will keep warm. But how can one keep warm alone? Though one may be overpowered, two can defend themselves. A cord of three strands is not quickly broken. Psalm 1:1-3 (NIV) Blessed is the one who does not walk in step with the wicked or stand in the way that sinners take or sit in the company of mockers, but whose delight is in the law of the Lord, and who meditates on his law day and

• night. That person is like a tree planted by streams of water, which yields its fruit in season and whose leaf

does not wither— whatever they do prospers.

We Are Here For You

If you want to talk to a CIS Wealth advisor, you have many options to reach out us to set a phone or online meeting: Call: 830-609-6986 Schedule A Meeting: www.ciswealth.com/meet Text (Service): 830-256-8172 Email: service@ciswealth.com Bob’s direct email: bob@ciswealth.com (Financial Planning & Investment Management) Mary Jo’s direct email: maryjo@ciswealth.com Our staff is still working from our physical office locations. We’re practicing social distancing and encouraging phone and online meetings at this time. CIS Wealth has the capacity to continue business as usual even if the situation progresses to require our staff working from home offices.

We Are Here For You