SLIDE 13 cred-c.org | 13
Number of Observations
Netflows: Logs (Sub GW): Logs (DMS): 802 Snort alerts: 296 164 105 Total: 1367
Number of events per week: 100 substations one year
# of Anomalies >> # of Attacks Need to identify key events to monitor! 3,494,504 events
Assume: Attack generates 5 events 1 attack/year IDS
Reference: The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection Stefan Axelsson. ACM Transactions on Information and System Security, Vol. 3, No. 3, August 2000, Pages 186–205.
True Positive = .999 Prob attack = 1.4 x 10-6 False Positive = .001 Probability of attack given an event P(I|A) = ~0.1%