Community conversation about the future for our County Dunn County - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Community conversation about the future for our County

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Why vision?

Successful regional communities create a shared vision which helps groups and people strive towards a common future.

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Community Visioning

The process we are following…….

May 10 – Scenario Planning – Part 1

• Explore global and regional trends and internal community dynamics.
• Identify key drivers potentially shaping the local region.

May 31 – Scenario Planning – Part 2

• Define four plausible future directions for the region.
• Develop detailed narratives of the implications of each of the four possible

directions.

Summer 2007 – Community Conversations

• Community-wide conversations – identify the preferred future.

Fall 2007 – Identify Actions

• Identify key strategic actions needed to move towards the preferred

scenario.

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Scenario Planning

• Draws together over 100 different groups

representing the ‘voices’ of our community

• Representation based on community

capitals framework

• Included range of ages, multiple

perspectives and experiences

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Our Workforce Development Stout Typographical Society

Our Current Sponsors

Dunn County University of Wisconsin-Stout Xcel Energy Stout Ale House

And several other community supporters

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

What have we been learning about the future?

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Forces impacting the world – what are the emerging global drivers…..

• Energy consumption is increasing
• Wealth in the US being distributed to fewer

people

• Dramatic increase in wealth and workforce

size in China and India – and expected to continue to grow

• Decline in US economic power in the world
• Climate change emerging as major global

issue

• Media power shifting to internet and away from

traditional media

Summary – deliberations at 2007 World Economic Forum

Forces impacting the region – what are the emerging regional drivers…..

• Twin cities sprawl – increasing population
• Loss of young people – aging population,

lack of suitable jobs

• Energy – rising costs; potential for

renewable energy in region

• Loss and degradation of natural resources

– water and farm land

Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop

Dynamic at play inside our community….

• We are weak at encouraging new leaders to

step forward.

• We have strong traditional organizations –

which are the ‘backbone’ of our community.

• We have strong community pride; but are not

very inclusive of new people and ideas.

• We are weak at supporting local businesses.
• We are not very self reliant and don’t look to

the long term future.

Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop

Dunn County – score against top ten attributes

• f successful communities

Attribute Strong

%

Weak

%

Evidence of strong community pride and inclusive culture

71 29

Invest in the future—built to last

32 68

Participatory approach to community decision making

35 65

Creatively build new economic opportunities

54 46

Support local businesses

26 74

Deliberate transition of power to new leaders

2 98

Strong belief in and support for education

54 46

Strong presence of traditional institutions

96 4

Willingness to seek help from the outside

57 43

Communities are self-reliant

12 88

What are the key drivers that will shape the future of Dunn County?

Summary – deliberations at May 10 Scenario Planning Workshop

Key drivers shaping the future of Dunn County

(as determined by workshop participants)

1. New leadership developed 2. Cost and availability of energy 3. Understanding human diversity 4. Education – utilizes technology 5. Protect water resources 6. Affordable housing 7. Public transportation 8. Twin City sprawl

• 9. Building on arts, history,

culture

• 10. Land-use planning
• 11. Strength of Downtown
• 12. Attractability and retainability

to young people

• 13. Availability of skilled workforce
• 14. Infrastructure development
• 15. Equity across community –

equal access to benefits

• 16. Cost and availability of

healthcare

• 17. Sustainability of agriculture
• 18. Changing technology
• 19. Responsive, responsible, and

cohesive policy and political environment

• 20. Entrepreneurial economic

environment

Summary deliberations – Dunn County Scenario Planning Workshop

Mapping the key drivers

• personal visa

Cost/Available Energy Understanding Human Diversity Education Utilizing Technology Protect Water Resources Twin Cities Sprawl Land Use Policies Strength of Downtown Attracting and Retaining Young People Availability of a Skilled Workforce Infrastructure Development Equity Across Community Cost and Availability of Health Care Sustainability of Agriculture Changing Technology Political and policy environment Entrepreneurial economic environment Public Transportation New Leadership Developed Affordable Housing Building Arts, Cultural History

3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

Uncertainty Importance

Scenario shaping ‘clusters’ of drivers

Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment

• New leadership developed
• Political and policy environment
• Attracting and retaining young people
• Availability of a skilled workforce
• Entrepreneurial economic environment

Providing and protecting physical resources

• Cost and available of energy
• Cost and availability of Health Care
• Protect water resources
• Land-use policies
• Sustainability of agriculture

Key clusters of drivers – Dunn County Scenario Planning Workshop

Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

increase decrease decrease

Scenario B Scenario A Scenario D Scenario C

increase

Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment Providing and protecting physical resources

Developing the four plausible scenarios

• The Scenario Planning workshop participants

explored how the future might unfold under each scenario.

• In their deliberations, they considered the ‘triple

bottom line’ of social, economic; and environment impacts.

• They looked out to 2010, 2020 and 2030 to see

how the future might look.

• They looked at how the key sets of

drivers will shape the future.

Developing the four plausible scenarios

Four plausible scenarios for the future

increase decrease decrease

‘Snooze; you lose!’

increase Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment Providing and protecting physical resources

‘Vintage Village’ ‘Boom to Gloom’ ‘Destination Dunn’

Scenario A - ‘Vintage Village’

• Environment in good health and protected.
• Attractive for elderly and tourists, but lack
• f opportunity for youth.
• Business attracted by physical resources

but lack of local skilled workforce.

• Less smaller local entrepreneurial

businesses, but healthcare sector and tourism industries vibrant.

• Stagnation and conservative leadership –

less open and tolerant community; resists new ideas and change.

• More people commute to work; and less

community support for education system.

Scenario Summary – Vintage Village

Predictable Characteristics

Scenario B - ‘Destination Dunn’

• Engaged citizens and strong leadership with

participatory community decision making.

• Open and welcoming community that

celebrates diversity and creativity.

• Strong focus on sustainable development and

renewable energy businesses.

• Network of public infrastructure and transport.
• Development of energy efficient commuter

systems and recreation trails.

• Strong collaborative approach – public /private

partnerships common and effective.

• Good health care and workforce development.

Scenario Summary – Destination Dunn

Predictable Characteristics

Scenario C - ‘Boom and Gloom’

• Starts with strong economic growth and good

well paying jobs – local entrepreneurs do well.

• Unplanned rapid growth begins to stress public

infrastructure and public funding.

• Environmental degradation begins to occur with

more pollution and loss of farming land and less

• pen public space.
• Intensive development along transportation

corridor with urban sprawl into countryside.

• Large companies begin to dominate industry

sectors, and area starts to become less attractive for new businesses, families and young people.

Scenario Summary – Boom to Gloom

Predictable Characteristics

Scenario D - ‘Snooze; you lose!’

• Poor decisions see environment degraded and

sold off for any development.

• Lack of public funding and decay of infrastructure

– roads, health, education all suffer.

• Pollution increases and attractiveness declines
• Increased community fragmentation – crime,

drug use, social unrest increases.

• Community apathy and widening of gap between

the ‘haves’ and ‘have not's’.

• Increase in industry such as sand mining, coal

fired power stations and polluting industries.

• Agriculture declines and water is polluted.

Scenario Summary – Snooze; you lose!

Predictable Characteristics

Four plausible scenarios for the future

increase decrease decrease

‘Snooze; you lose!’

increase Entrepreneurial and responsive community environment Providing and protecting physical resources

‘Vintage Village’ ‘Boom to Gloom’ ‘Destination Dunn’

Discussion

• What does this scenario planning tell us

about our future choices and direction of Dunn County?

• Which scenario do you think the community
• f Dunn County should strive towards? –

Why?

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Discussion

• What action / steps do you think are going

to be critical as we move towards creating

• ur preferred future?
• What role do you think you / your group

can play to help make this a reality?

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Thank you for your input!!

Please complete the survey – your comments and input are vital to shaping the future of Dunn County. For more information please visit our website www.dunnvision.org

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

Appendix

Detailed characteristics and possibilities for each scenario – as recorded at workshop.

• Scenario A
• Scenario B
• Scenario C
• Scenario D

Dunn County Community Visioning Process - 2007

‘Vintage Village’ – Scenario A

Social and cultural characteristics

• Less open/tolerant population
• Stagnation & apathy in leadership & government
• Aging society-loss of creativity & enthusiasm
• Attractive to retirees (from near-by areas) & tourism
• Sharing of community land (with better land use policies)
• Decline in work ethic
• Basic needs (food, healthcare, etc.) satisfied-content
• Social & cultural groups pitted against each other for increasing resources

Economic characteristics

• Less new, local, and small businesses
• More traditional mind-set, lack of innovation
• Labor shortage and lack of financial support for education
• May effect the already strong schools within the community
• Companies attracted by physical resources
• Relocate employees here; bring employees with them rather than recruiting from the area
• Entertainment & shopping is done elsewhere
• Healthcare companies expand/locate here since it would likely be an older community
• Attract tourists with the natural resources; sort-of a resort scenario

Environmental characteristics

• Rich in environmental resources lots of pristine land
• Decline in population and an ageing population
• Assets lend to strong potential for tourism, recreation, & agriculture
• Concern about sustaining healthcare assets because of the loss of skilled workers
• Seasonal population
• Environmentally, our location is an asset;
• We have young people here, it’s just a matter of getting them to stay.
• I94/University population

Vintage Village - Scenario A -Triple bottom line possibilities Social Economic Environmental

2010

• Educational funding problems
• Land use policies
• Aging population creates apathy for

educational & community funding

2010

• Economic development decreases

(less company start-ups)

• Less financial support for education
• Companies close because of a

shortage of skilled workers (3M)

• Decrease of available capital (debt &

equity)

2010

• Less rural housing development
• More environmental education

programs

• More emphasis on historic

restoration

2020

• Limited Resources & tax base

continue to strain the county

• Drop in average income for citizens
• Depletion of social/cultural venues

& networks

2020

• Specialty centers (cancer centers)
• Tourism & resorts on local lakes

(low paying jobs)

• Assisted living facilities open up
• Local & regional sustainable

agriculture

• Last downtown shop closes

2020

• Improved air quality
• Less erosion, pollution
• More non-residential farm owners
• More diversity in agriculture
• Less pavement-more green space
• More walking trails

2030

• Redesigned education system
• Lack of support for UW-Stout
• More intolerant population
• Relying on outside labor & dollars
• Agribusiness controlled by the
• utside

2030

• License new casino on Lake

Menomin (more low paying jobs)

• UW-Stout takes over downtown

2030

• Resort areas building up
• More emphasis/reliance on tourism

‘Destination Dunn’ – Scenario B

Social and cultural characteristics

*Community is open/ welcoming & helpful * Safe viable, diversity in populations and cultural opportunities * Great paying jobs, * Social cultural activities available, high quality Education * Broad community representative leadership, * Healthy respect for Dissent * Leaders model win-win, * Higher level of participation in political and policy environment, *Healthcare affordable, available to all, * Lake is clean, Sustainable land use policies have been developed by broad community input and adhered to by elected officials.

Economic characteristics

* Sustainable economic development/ using triple bottom line: profits, people, place (Fairmont Model) * Diversified Economy / Private and Public Partnerships * Provide cultural & Recreational Opportunities ( Make County a cool place to live) * Wired/ wireless Community / Allow to work and be connected at home *Public transportation Bus routes through city & county, Commuter rail between E.C and cities ( Businesses will receive incentives for providing bus passes, creating van pools/ ride share program) * Renewable Energy Local investment in providing renewable energy, Locally available * Younger Workforce / Schools will be full, jobs for both spouses * Regional Localized Economy, Great Health Care accessibility Employees provide affordable Healthcare insurance.

Environmental characteristics

*Clean Lakes * Greater emphasis on green space * Aquifer clean and full * greater use of recycling and conservation, *Clean and renewable energy 1) Transport - Elec. Fuels and bio fuels 2) Buildings – wind, geothermal, solar, * revitalized downtowns, * Less driving, more biking and walking, Public transportation. * Investment in sustainability personal, business, government. * Sustainable agriculture, local and organic

Destination Dunn - Scenario B - Triple bottom line possibilities Social Economic Environmental

2010

* Political & Civic Engagement Leadership through training -> Diversity, Celebrate Diversity, Advocacy State HealthCare Town Hall Meetings

2010 Public policy in place to

support substantial economic development, Ride share 41, public transport plan in place, wireless county, county bike route in place, support for community Ag. Establish public/private partnerships, universal HC healthcare

2010 Public education –

Environment & Sustainability begin stage research planning, likely decline in environmental quality, In spite of best case scenario to group B

2020

More of 2010

2020 Continued growth

sustainable development, Bus route in place, Begin energy efficient commuter system from EC to MSP, County Bike Routes constructed, Less petroleum based AG. Workable public/private partnerships in place, Schools full

2020 Implementation stage of

policies of sustainability Growth of renewable energy use, increase of public transportation, lake/river quality improving, global warming still impacting weather, land, water, etc

2030

More of 2010

2030 Energy Efficient Commuter

passenger rail system in place, living in well-paid Nirvana

2030 Fully integrated public

transport system/ decline in local air pollution, more biking & walking. Lakes and rivers significant improvement, locally produced food.

‘Boom and Gloom’ – Scenario C

Social and cultural characteristics-

New leadership developed and retaining young people- reduce brain drain, WI families remain closer to home, more established community ties, more invested in community, commitment to community (incentives WI schools paid for, better, affordable housing made available) Availability of a skilled workforce- less turnover, better services available, recruitment and retention of well qualified workforce. Cost and availability of energy- less affordable gas : may equal government assistance, could be an incentive to work closer to home. Cost of heath care- likelihood of government intervention, poor health: could be an incentive for healthier living- work out, eat well, less smoking and alcohol. Land use politics- sprawl: could be an opportunity to create lower cost housing (make houses on former agriculture land) System of agriculture- more fragmented.

Economic characteristics

POSITIVE- increased jobs, increased capital, attract and retain skilled workers, increased tax base, pro growth public policy/leadership. NEGATIVE- strain on infrastructure and public services (education, health care, sewer/water, transportation) environmental degradation, not self sustaining, short sited leadership, long term costs. A lot of tension and there needs to be a balance

Environmental characteristics

• Poor unplanned development- industrial, residential and service and retail.
• Pollution- water, land.
• Resource stress- water (A.G. impacts, business and residential), waste (land fills, waste water, industrial/business)

Boom and Gloom - Scenario C - Triple bottom line possibilities

Social

Starts to increase and then downslide

Economic

Constant Downslide

Environmental

Parallel to Social

2010

Status quo

2010-

Seeing serious potential Small company growth Perhaps one large company Increase in retail and homes

2010

Status quo

2020

Energy costs increase Health care costs increase Housing increase Younger people are staying and raising families getting involved Improved cultural activities and support services

2020

Significant growth is realized A few large companies A lot of small and medium companies More retail and roads Same as 1970’s and 1980’s

2020

Sprawl of poor land use Air and water quality begin to decline Shifts in political environment away from environmental issues to economic gain Few small farms left

2030

Crime increase Transportation stressed- road decay Education system declines Stress on human services agencies Young people are beginning to leave

2030-

Continue to intensify along transportation lines Stress will begin to put stress on growth Degradation of resources begin to restrict growth

2030

Downtown deterioration Air and water polluted Agriculture is fragmented No small farms Waste and sprawl a HUGE issue

‘Snooze; you lose!’ – Scenario D

Social and cultural characteristics

No tax base; No new leadership; No jobs for skilled workforce; No public school funding – fewer students; Less support for museums and libraries; Increase in income disparity; Population decrease; Decrease in tourism; Loss of smaller family farms and increase in Corporate farms; No local ownership; Increase in crime, increase in people needing Social Services Increase in alcohol and drugs; Increase in domestic violence; Increase in medical needs; Increase in aging population Decrease of health in population; Harder to recruit professionals; Only Wal-Mart to shop at; Individualism wins out over the “greater good”/public well being; Dunn becomes a way station for Minneapolis – housing and strip mall/commuting workforce; “Company Town” – whichever industry needs the land and pays for it, owns the people; Abandoned houses – too expensive to drive out of town to work – population leaves; Gambling industry potential; Increase in multi-family dwellings; Homes not affordable for young families; Public apathy

Economic characteristics

Constantly degraded business and resource base with all the attendant losses associated; Loss of tax base – public service and education suffers; No viable downtown or business district; could have only liquor stores, pawn shops, car repair, & tobacco. Low end retail; No social hub, lack of church communities; Aging population, no local care; Continuing loss of jobs, industry & population; Remaining workforce commutes or moves out and those left have the low end paying jobs; Consolidation of schools and brain drain; Stout has closed, online university has replaced it; Unable to attract good teachers and new and vibrant community leaders; Youth at risk; Unresponsive community environment; Poor housing, no desire to keep the community clean Infrastructure deterioration; No buying power, no resources to initiate new business

Environmental characteristics

Poor decisions by leaders result in decline in natural resources; Increased cost of energy – dirty energy, people move from area, degrades environment; Decline in health, decline in availability of health care, decline in water resources and quality, less tourism Increase in air pollution, more cars; Pressure on Infrastructure; Loss of community character, hodgepodge - anyone can do what they want; Department of Agriculture rules resulting in land degradation; Loss of small farms; Increase in chemical and water usage.

Snooze; you lose! – Scenario D - Triple bottom line possibilities

Social Economic Environmental

2010

Continued decreases in public funding for social services and education Increase in crime and drug use (gang activity) Increase in need for social services and public education resources Citizen apathy

2010

Isolated non-metallic sand mines Wholesale land acquisition begins I-94 Corridor begins to focus on transient business Unresponsive community environment begins to dominate; we lose watchdog groups, etc.

2010

Relax DNR environmental rules Ashbore, Oakwilt, VHS affect plants and animals Poor government choices – zoning laws, no support for mass transit More phosphorus in lake and river Excel approves coal plant at Tyrone Two more large mines approved – exported

2020

Population decrease Increase in people commuting to work Blighted areas and substandard living conditions Breakdown in relationships in community and community orgs Gated communities where desirable housing exists B&B’s = Bars and Brothels

2020

Widespread non-metallic sand mines Corporate agriculture expands I-94 Corridor, no depth Cultural attractions are dominated by the “Shooter” variety Massive community migration, school closings and consolidation. Infrastructure deterioration; 3M closes UW Stout closed by the State

2020

DNR disbanded New nuclear plant added to Tyrone Lakes dying – smells, no recreational use, fish die No taxes from abandoned lakeshore homes Aquifer polluted due to corporate monoculture; Ethanol plant abandoned, switches to grain alcohol I-94 expanded to 6 lanes

2030

No social order or cultural resources Offer by nuclear storage facility to move to Dunn County Suburb of St. Paul/Minneapolis – E.

• St. Paul

Menomonie school district merges with Hudson

2030

Corporate domination – non-metallic mining, corporate ag, water quality deteriorating County annexation Remaining population considers joining Minnesota – but remain Packer fans

2030

Second largest coal fire in Wheeler – energy exported Terrorists bomb nuclear plant Human carcinogens wrack the public Knapp hills denuded – cutting trees for fuel Results in flooding Knapp, last deer killed Hoffman Hills changed to Hoffman desert Big Dipper not visible due to air pollution