Communities Q4 2018 Earnings Presentation February 28, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

communities
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Communities Q4 2018 Earnings Presentation February 28, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investing in Communities Q4 2018 Earnings Presentation February 28, 2019 Disclaimer General You are advised to read this disclaimer carefully before reading, accessing or making any This presentation may contain information and statistics


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Investing in Communities

Q4 2018 Earnings Presentation February 28, 2019

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Disclaimer

General

You are advised to read this disclaimer carefully before reading, accessing or making any

  • ther use of the information included herewith. These materials are not an offer or the

solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities or make any investment. This presentation includes information about Tricon Capital Group Inc. and its subsidiaries and investees (together, the “Company”) as of December 31, 2018, unless otherwise stated. These materials should also be reviewed in conjunction with the Company’s Financial Statements and Management Discussion and Analysis for the periods ending December 31, 2018. All dollar amounts are expressed in U.S. Dollars unless otherwise stated. The Company measures the success of its business in part by employing several key performance indicators that are not recognized under IFRS. These indicators should not be considered an alternative to IFRS financial measures, such as net income. As non- IFRS financial measures do not have standardized definitions prescribed by IFRS, they are less likely to be comparable with other issuers or peer companies. A description of the non-IFRS measures used by the Company in measuring its performance is included in its Management Discussion and Analysis available

  • n

the Company’s website at www.triconcapital.com and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. This presentation may contain information and statistics regarding the markets in which the Company and its investees operate. Some of this information has been obtained from market research, publicly available information and industry publications. This information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness

  • f such information has not been independently verified by the Company and cannot be

guaranteed.

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information relating to expected future events and the Company’s financial and operating results and projections, including statements regarding the Company’s growth and investment opportunities and the performance goals and expectations of its investees, including, in particular, targeted returns, that involve risks and uncertainties. Such forward-looking information is typically indicated by the use of words such as “will”, “may”, “expects” or “intends”. The forward- looking statements and information contained in this presentation include statements regarding expected or targeted investment returns and performance including project timing and cash flow; the ability of the Company to generate fee income from investments and the quantum of these fees; the ability to attract third-party investment; the timing and availability

  • f

new investment

  • pportunities,

future net income from investments; expectations for the growth in the business; and the availability and quantum of debt reduction opportunities and the Company’s ability to avail itself of them. These statements are based on management’s current expectations, intentions and assumptions which management believes to be reasonable having regard to its understanding of prevailing market conditions and the current terms on which investment opportunities may be available. Projected returns and performance fees are based in part on projected cash flows for incomplete projects. Numerous factors, many of which are not in the Company’s control, and including known and unknown risks, general and local market conditions and general economic conditions (such as prevailing interest rates and rates of inflation) may cause actual investment performance and fee income to differ from current projections. Accordingly, although we believe that our anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and information are based upon reasonable assumptions and expectations, the reader should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information. If known or unknown risks materialize, or if any of the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may differ materially from management expectations as projected in such forward-looking statements. Examples of such risks are described in the Company’s continuous disclosure materials from time-to-time, as available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or

  • therwise, unless required by applicable law.

1

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Financial Review

Wissam Francis - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

2

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % YoY Salaries (4.1) $ (3.9) $ 5% AIP 2.7 1.5 83% LTIP (7.3) (2.4) 209% Total (8.6) $ (4.8) $ 81% For the three months ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % YoY PF&A Revenue 9.6 $ 7.3 $ 30% TAH Investment Income 38.2 45.7 (17%) THP Investment Income 1.9 1.2 57% TLR Investment Income 10.7 6.0 79% Total Revenue 60.3 $ 60.2 $ 0% Compensation Expense (8.6) (4.8) 81% G&A Expense (2.7) (2.1) 27% Interest Expenses (6.9) (7.2) (4%) Other (Expenses) / Income1 1.6 (20.6) NMF Realized and Unrealized FX gain (0.4) (0.9) (54%) Total Operating Expenses (17.0) $ (35.6) $ (52%) Income from Discontinued Operations

  • $

1.1 $ NMF Net Income 43.3 $ 25.7 $ 68% Diluted Earnings Per Share 0.23 $ 0.19 $ 21% Includes TAH 2017-2 securitization transaction costs incurred in Q4 2017

Q4 2018 IFRS Results

3

1. Includes non-controlling interest and tax adjustments.

Bridge to Non-IFRS Results

(in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % YoY Net Change in FV of Derivative (8.6) $ 13.4 $ NMF Accrued LTIP Expense 6.6 1.8 267% FX Loss/(Gain) 3.8 1.2 230% Other (2.3) (1.9) 24% For the three months ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % YoY Net Income 43.3 $ 25.7 $ 68% Non-recurring adjustments 3.3 19.3 (83%) Non-cash adjustments (0.5) 14.5 NMF Adjusted Net Income 46.1 $ 59.5 $ (22%) Includes: (in millions of U.S. dollars)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Q4 2018 Non-IFRS Results

Key Variance Drivers

1. Includes adjusted stock option expense and adjusted amortization expense. For the three months ended December 31 (in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % YoY PF&A Revenue, net of NCI 9.0 $ 6.4 $ 39% TAH Adjusted EBITDA 61.2 83.5 (27%) THP Adjusted EBITDA 2.5 1.4 78% TLR Adjusted EBITDA 11.4 9.1 26% TLC Adjusted EBITDA

  • 1.5

NMF Adjusted EBITDA before overhead 84.1 $ 101.9 $ (17%) Adjusted Compensation Expense (1.8) (2.8) (38%) Adjusted G&A Expense (2.7) (2.1) 27% Adjusted EBITDA 79.7 $ 97.0 $ (18%) Adjusted Interest Expenses (27.3) (26.5) 3% Adjusted Other Expenses1 (1.4) (0.9) 63% Adjusted Tax Expense (4.9) (10.1) (52%) Adjusted Net Income 46.1 $ 59.5 $ (22%) Diluted Earnings Per Share 0.30 $ 0.39 $ (23%) (in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 YoY $ % YoY NOI 41.4 $ 34.7 $ 6.7 $ 19% FV Gain 24.8 51.3 (26.5) (52%) Driven by new TAH JV and development fees from TLR CA Increase in fair value gain from The Selby nearing substantial completion and The Taylor achieving development milestones

4

Excludes accrued LTIP expense of $6.6M in Q4 2018 and $1.8M in Q4 2017 per IFRS results

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Debt Assets

$0.4B $1.7B

19%

Debt Assets

66% 59% Q4 2017 Q4 2018

Prudent Use of Leverage

Cash Generation TAH Debt Profile1

  • 1. All Debt figures are presented net of cash.

Non-Recourse Debt/Assets

Tricon Lifestyle Communities Divestiture of 14 park portfolio Tricon Lifestyle Rentals U.S. Sale of assets upon stabilization (in progress)

  • T

H P

Completed Tricon American Homes Disposition of non-core homes Tricon Housing Partners Strong net cash flow profile Private Funds and Advisory Recurring fee income related to third-party capital in all verticals Tricon Lifestyle Rentals Operating cash flow Tricon American Homes Operating cash flow

2017 2018 2019 2020

Overall Leverage Profile1

$2.0B $3.2B

59%

$0.3B

0%

$0.1B $0.1B

46%

Recourse Debt/Assets

Corporate TAH THP TLR LTV Ratio Fixed Rate Debt

63% 73% Q4 2017 Q4 2018 5

11% excluding convertible debentures

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Operational Review

Gary Berman – President and Chief Executive Officer

6

slide-8
SLIDE 8
  • 4%

Track Record of Growth

7 $3.0B $4.6B $5.7B + 90% + 19% + 35% + 135% + 32% N/A + 96% + 56% + 15% + 22% + 75%

2016 2017 2018

AUM Fees $26.6M $25.4M $30.3M TAH Managed Homes 7,765 15,218 17,442 TLR Units

(Canada + U.S.)

~1,300 ~1,300 ~3,200 Adjusted EBITDA $114.8M $269.7M $364.0M Adjusted Diluted EPS $0.58 $1.10 $1.45

slide-9
SLIDE 9

$3.40 $4.76 $5.23 $6.09 $6.47 $6.87 $8.28 C$3.38 C$5.06 C$6.07 C$8.43 C$8.69 C$8.62 C$10.88

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Track Record of Value Creation

8

23% CAGR in C$ (16% in US$)

$CAD $USD

Book Value Per Share does not fully capture:

  • Value of the Private

Funds & Advisory fee stream ($9.6M in Q4 2018; $30.3M in 2018)

Book Value Per Share Growth1 Value Creation1

USD Book Value CAD Book Value TCN Per Share Total Return2 S&P/TSX Total Return2 2013 40% 50% 25% 10% 2014 10% 20% 17% 9% 2015 16% 39% 6% (11%) 2016 6% 3% 8% 18% 2017 6% (1%) 25% 7% 2018 21% 31% (14%) (11%) 2019 - Current N/A N/A 10% 11% Current Value $8.28 C$10.88 C$10.72 16,001 Compound Annual Return (2012 - Current) 16% 23% 12% 7% Overall Gain (2012 - Current) 143% 234% 97% 54% Annual Percentage Change

1. Financial statements in 2012 and 2013 were presented in Canadian dollars, and for subsequent years in U.S. dollars. The figures in the chart and table have been converted at year-end exchange rates. 2. Total Returns assume dividend reinvestment. Current share price is as at Feb. 21st, 2019. 3. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

slide-10
SLIDE 10

27.6% 24.9% 30.9% 27.7% 23.6% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 4.4% 5.0% 6.4% 6.7% 6.4% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Strong Performance Metrics at TAH

Total Portfolio

9

Same Home Portfolio

  • 1. All NOI metrics exclude impact of hurricanes.

Blended Rental Growth Annualized Turnover Number of Homes, NOI and NOI Margin1

61.1% 62.2% 61.1% 58.9% 62.6% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 3.6% 4.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.1% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Blended Rental Growth NOI Margin1 Same Home NOI Growth1

7.9% on new leases 5.6% on renewals 7.0% on new leases 5.6% on renewals $35.5M $35.6M $36.5M $37.2M $41.4M

64.4% 62.8% 62.0% 60.9% 64.5%

10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% $30.0M $35.0M $40.0M $45.0M $50.0M

Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

15,218 15,584 15,995 16,766 17,442

7.7% 5.9% 5.1% 8.0% 8.6% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

slide-11
SLIDE 11

~C$200M

Projected Total Cost

~C$300M

Investment Property Value

Development Progress

The Selby: Case Study

10

Q4 2016

~6.00%1

Development Yield

~C$2.90

Underwritten Rent Per SqFt

~C$3.75

Market Rent Per SqFt

Amenities

Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Lobby Common Room Gym

  • 1. Based on projected stabilized NOI.
slide-12
SLIDE 12

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 The Selby (592 Sherbourne) The Taylor (57 Spadina) The James (Scrivener Square) TBD 8 Gloucester West Don Lands (2 land parcels) 7 Labatt

Progress on TLR CA Developments

Footprint1

11

3

The James (Scrivener Square)

1

The Selby (592 Sherbourne)

6

7 Labatt 8 Gloucester

4 5

West Don Lands

2

The Taylor (57 Spadina) Leasing Construction Stabilized 1. Photos include artists renderings. 2. Timelines are based on current plans and subject to change.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Construction, Lease-Up and Stabilization2

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Progress on TLR US Developments

12

The McKenzie, Dallas, TX The Maxwell, Frisco, TX

Currently 43% Leased Currently 35% Leased (in millions of U.S. dollars) Outstanding Invested Capital at Cost Investment at Fair Value Project Debt Total Fair Value TLR US Projects 58.7 $ 80.9 $ 81.0 $ 161.9 $

The McKenzie Interior

Investment at fair value is shown before $21.3 million of net liabilities and non-controlling interest

slide-14
SLIDE 14

2,353 2,819 2,326 2,828 3,293 3,820 2016 2017 2018

Johnson Lot Sales Third-Party Home Sales in Johnson MPCs

Leading indicator for future lot sales

THP Highlights

13

Reduced THP Balance Sheet Exposure Johnson Lot Sales and Third-Party Home Sales

1. Refer to the general disclaimer on page 1. 2016 2017 2018

$1.0B $0.3B

24%

$1.4B $0.3B

18%

$1.7B $0.3B

15%

Investment Vehicle Summary

Investment Vehicle (in millions of U.S. dollars) Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Invested Capital at Cost Projected Net Cash to TCN THP1 US ($1.7) $57.1 $109.0 THP2 US (1.5) 22.0 20.1 THP3 Canada (0.1) 7.3 7.7 Trinity Falls 3.6 85.1 290.5 Separate accounts 5.3 55.5 127.6 Side-cars (3.7) 20.8 22.2 Tax and Unrealized FX 0.6 n/a n/a Total $2.5 $247.8 $577.1 Adjusted EBITDA - 2018 (12 months) $12.5 Outstanding Invested Capital at Dec 31, 2018 $247.8 as a % of Invested Capital 5%

THP Principal Investments TCN Balance Sheet Assets

1

slide-15
SLIDE 15

$10.6M $10.3M $9.6M $13.7M $12.2M $12.1M $2.8M $1.5M $2.4M $3.8M $2.1M

$26.6M $25.4M $30.3M

2016 2017 2018

+ 19%

Private Funds and Advisory

14

Contractual Fees

Johnson TLR Performance Fees TAH THP Recently launched JV Development fees from a growing portfolio of multi-family projects Projected to accelerate as legacy investments mature Driven by stable third-party AUM Projected to grow with increasing lot sales $92.3M of performance fees expected from all verticals over 8 to 10 years

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Growth Strategy

15 1. Based on projected development yield of 5.25%, TLR currently holds a ~30% equity stake in these projects. 2. Performance fees and future cash flows are projected based on current project plans. Realized fees may vary.

Recurring cash flow

30% Third-Party 70% Principal TLR $0.3B THP $0.3B

Portfolio of 17,442 managed rental homes generated $152M of NOI and $54M of core FFO in 2018 Recently announced joint venture with two leading institutional investors to acquire 10,000 – 12,000 homes THP third-party managed assets generated $22M of fee revenue in 2018 and are projected to generate $50M of performance fees over 8 to 10 years2 Multi-family development assets projected to generate $60M to $65M

  • f NOI upon stabilization1

TAH $3.3B THP $0.9B TLR $0.3B

Land and homebuilding development assets projected to generate ~$600M

  • f cash to Tricon over 8 to 10 years2

TAH $0.6B

Episodic cash flow

$5.7B

AUM

~ $8.0B

AUM

by completing existing TAH/TLR commitments Increase Balance Sheet Exposure Reduce Balance Sheet Exposure Tricon 3.0

slide-17
SLIDE 17

www.triconcapital.com

Gary Berman

Managing Director, Capital Markets 416.925.2409 wnowak@triconcapital.com

Wissam Francis

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 416.323.2484 wfrancis@triconcapital.com

Wojtek Nowak

President and Chief Executive Officer 416.928.4122 gberman@triconcapital.com