Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics David - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics David Spiegelhalter Chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge President, Royal Statistical Society Migration Statistics User Forum 2018

Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics David Spiegelhalter Chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge President, Royal Statistical Society Migration Statistics User Forum 2018
with Alex Freeman Anne Martha van der Bles Sarah Dryhurst
Baroness Onora O’Neill.. • Organisations should not be aiming to ‘increase trust’ • Rather, aim to demonstrate trustworthiness • Information should be • accessible • intelligible • useable • assessable
Epistemic uncertainty Can we communicate uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, in a trustworthy way?
Uncertainty about statistics
Uncertainty about statistics
Uncertainty about statistics
Uncertainty about statistics
Uncertainty about statistics
February 2018 Inflation report • ONS do not provide ‘error’ on GDP
Randomised trial of communicating epistemic uncertainty • Topics: • Number unemployed, • Tigers in India, • Global temperature change • Format : • Estimate • Range • Verbal qualifier, • Trust/credibility : in number and source • Design: Online panel, between-person, 1126 participants
August 2018 report Only visualises sampling error Quality issues as verbal caveats
Plans for Winton Centre • Continue collaboration with ONS on communicating uncertainty • Conducting interviews for user requirements • Evaluate alternative formats

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