Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics David - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 16, 2022 175 likes •340 views

Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics David Spiegelhalter Chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge President, Royal Statistical Society Migration Statistics User Forum 2018

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Communicating uncertainty about mig igration statistics

David Spiegelhalter

Chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge President, Royal Statistical Society

Migration Statistics User Forum 2018

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with

Alex Freeman Anne Martha van der Bles Sarah Dryhurst

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Baroness Onora O’Neill..

Organisations should not be aiming to

‘increase trust’

Rather, aim to demonstrate trustworthiness
Information should be
accessible
intelligible
useable
assessable

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Epistemic uncertainty

Can we communicate uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, in a trustworthy way?

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Uncertainty about statistics

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Uncertainty about statistics

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Uncertainty about statistics

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Uncertainty about statistics

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Uncertainty about statistics

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February 2018 Inflation report

ONS do not provide ‘error’
n GDP

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Randomised trial of communicating epistemic uncertainty

Topics:
Number unemployed,
Tigers in India,
Global temperature change
Format:
Estimate
Range
Verbal qualifier,
Trust/credibility: in number and source
Design: Online panel, between-person, 1126 participants

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August 2018 report

Only visualises sampling error Quality issues as verbal caveats

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Plans for Winton Centre

Continue collaboration with ONS on

communicating uncertainty

Conducting interviews for user requirements
Evaluate alternative formats