Commodity Market Outlook Todd Hubbs jhubbs3@Illinois.edu - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nov 27, 2022 229 likes •461 views

Commodity Market Outlook Todd Hubbs jhubbs3@Illinois.edu Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu www.farmdoc.illinois.edu U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

SLIDE 1

www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu www.farmdoc.illinois.edu

Commodity Market Outlook

Todd Hubbs jhubbs3@Illinois.edu Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois

SLIDE 2

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 USDA Est. 2018/19 USDA Forecast Area Planted

(mil. Acres)

95.4 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1

Area Harvested

(mil. Acres)

87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.8

Yield

(Bu./acre)

158.1 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.9

Production

(mil. Bu.)

13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626

Imports

(mil. Bu.)

36 32 67 57 36 50

Total Supply

(mil. Bu.)

14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,816

Feed and Residual

(mil. Bu.)

5,002 5,284 5,113 5,472 5,298 5,500

Food, Seed, and Industrial

(mil. Bu.)

6,493 6,601 6,643 6,883 7,058 7,130

Ethanol

(mil. Bu.)

5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,650

Exports

(mil. Bu.)

1,920 1,867 1,901 2,293 2,438 2,450

Total Use

(mil. Bu.)

13,454 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,080

Ending Stocks

(mil. Bu.)

1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140

1,736

Season Average Price

($ per Bu.)

$4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.20 - $4.00

SLIDE 3

U.S. Feed and Residual Use and Grain Consuming Animal Units

5,819 5,845 5,545 5,778 6,132 6,111 5,535 5,853 5,128 5,096 4,770 4,512 4,309 5,002 5,286 5,118 5,470 5,298 5,500

80 85 90 95 100 105 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million Animal Units Millions of Bushels

Feed and Residual Use Grain Consuming Animal Units

Data: NASS

SLIDE 4

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol

630 707 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,119 3,049 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,650

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Millions of Bushels

Data: WASDE

SLIDE 5

U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 World Brazil Canada China India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Peru Phillippines Millions of Gallons

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Data: EIA

SLIDE 6

U.S. Corn Exports

2,134 2,125 2,437 1,849 1,979 1,831 1,539 730 1,921 1,867 1,899 2,294 2,438 2,450

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Millions of Bushels

World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia

Data: FAS GATS

SLIDE 7

U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Dollars per Bushel

Percent

Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price

Data: WASDE

SLIDE 8

Corn Production

12.4 12.3 10.8 13.8 14.2 13.6 15.1 14.6 14.6 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.9 3.3 3.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Billion of Bushels United States Brazil Argentina FSU - 12

Data: NASS

SLIDE 9

y = 1.8749t + 59.275 R² = 0.9079

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Bushels per Acre

2018 Yield Projection = 178.9 bpa Data: NASS

U.S. Average Corn Yield

SLIDE 10

89,128

60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 Thousand Acres

Planted Harvested

Data: NASS

U.S. Corn Acreage

SLIDE 11

Corn Balance Sheet

2018-19 Current USDA Forecast 2018-19 Forecast 2019-20 Forecast Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 89.1 89.1 91.8 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 81.8 81.8 84.5 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 178.9 177.6 174.2 Total Production(million bushels) 14,626 14,528 14,720 Beginning Stocks(million bushels) 2,140 2,140 1,768 Imports (million bushels) 50 40 40 Total Supply (million bushels) 16,816 16,708 16,528 Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,500 5,450 5,400 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,130 7,100 7,090 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,650 5,620 5,600 Exports (million bushels) 2,450 2,390 2,275 Total Consumption (million bushels) 15,080 14,940 14,765 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,736 1,768 1,763 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 11.5% 11.8% 11.9% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.60 $3.70 $3.65

SLIDE 12

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 USDA Estimate 2018/19 USDA Forecast

Area Planted

(mil. Acres)

76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1

Area Harvested

(mil. Acres)

76.3 82.6 81.7 82.7 89.5 88.3

Yield

(Bu./acre)

44 47.5 48 52.0 49.3 52.1

Production

(mil. Bu.)

3,358 3,927 3,296 4,296 4,411 4,600

Imports

(mil. Bu.)

72 33 24 22 22 25

Total Supply

(mil. Bu.)

3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063

Crush

(mil. Bu.)

1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080

Seed and Residual

(mil. Bu.)

107 146 122 146 122 128

Exports

(mil. Bu.)

1,638 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,900

Total Use

(mil. Bu.)

3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,296 4,107

Ending Stocks

(mil. Bu.)

92 191 197 302 438 955

Season Average Price

($ per Bu.)

$13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $7.60 - $9.60

SLIDE 13

1,640 1,700 1,615 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,808 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200

Millions of Bushels

U.S. Soybean Crush

Data: WASDE

SLIDE 14

U.S. Soybean Exports

996 1,064 1,044 887 1,097 940 1,116 1,159 1,279 1,499 1,505 1,366 1,328 1,639 1,842 1,942 2,166 2,129 1,900

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Million Bushels

U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico Japan

Data: FAS GATS

SLIDE 15

487 382 787 622 948 1,041 1,056 1,390 1,510 1,819 1,923 2,113 2,200 2,535 2,879 3,058 3,436 3,454 3,307

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Millions of Bushels

China Soybean Imports

Data: FAS

SLIDE 16

2018 Daily Soybean Export Prices for Paranagua Brazil and New Orleans

Data: CEPES and AMS

SLIDE 17

Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Millions of Bushels U.S. 5-Year Avg. U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 5-Year Avg. Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19

Data: COMEX VIS and FAS

SLIDE 18

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Dollars per Bushel Percent U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio

Avg. Farm Price

Data: WASDE

SLIDE 19

Soybean Production

3.1 3.2 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.1

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Billions of Bushels

United States Brazil Argentina

Data: NASS

SLIDE 20

y = 0.0039t2 + 0.1989t + 23.618 R² = 0.9079

10 20 30 40 50 60

Bushels per Acre

U.S. Soybean Average Yield

Data: NASS

Current USDA Forecast= 52.1 bpa

SLIDE 21

89,145

50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000

Thousands of Acres

Planted

Harvested

U.S. Soybean Acreage

Data: NASS

SLIDE 22

Soybean Balance Sheet

2018-19 Current USDA Forecast 2018-19 Forecast 2019-20 Forecast Supply: Planted Acreage (mil.) 89.1 89.1 85.7 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 88.3 88.3 84.9 Yield (bu./ac.) 52.1 51.8 49.2 Production (mil. bu.) 4,600 4,574 4,177 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 438 438 929 Imports (mil. bu.) 25 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 5,063 5,037 5,131 Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 2,080 2,070 2,055 Export (mil. bu.) 1,900 1,910 1,930 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 124 Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 4,107 4,108 4,109 Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 955 929 1,022 Stocks-to-use 23.3% 22.6% 24.8% Average farm price ($/bu.) $8.60 $8.50 $8.40