CMCC Use Case Presentation Edoardo Bucchignani, Paola Mercogliano - - PDF document

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13/03/2013 CMCC Use Case Presentation Edoardo Bucchignani, Paola Mercogliano and ISC team Euromediterranean Center on Climate Change Impact on Soil and Coasts Division Use Case defined in JRA5 Evaluation of the effects of climate changes on

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CMCC Use Case Presentation

Edoardo Bucchignani, Paola Mercogliano and ISC team

Euromediterranean Center on Climate Change Impact on Soil and Coasts Division

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How will the ongoing climate change influence the landslide activity in the Mediterranean area (and in special way in Italy) ? Evaluation of the effects of climate changes on landslides phenomena triggered by precipitation events (clay strain).

The landslide mass moves with considerable internal deformations; at the base of the landslide a flow surface exists.

Use Case defined in JRA5

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Use Case Description

Summary: this test case describes the procedure used in order to make usable the output data of the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM to the SEEP/W (GEO‐SLOPE International Ltd.) model. The last one is used for stability analysis in order to evaluate landslide risk scenarios. Location: Bucciano, S. Martino V. C., Cervinara (Italy). Data needs: atmospheric variables on mesoscale (obtained using the COSMO‐ CLM regional model initialized by the global model CMCC‐MED): precipitation, temperature at 2m (daily, min and max) wind at 10 m, relative humidity. Resolution: 8 km, every 6 hours.

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  • CMCC climate researchers prepare datasets in NETCDF format containing

the solutions (saved every 6 hours) related to a well defined domain (i.e. Italy) for past period (1971-2000) and XXI century (A1B scenario).

  • These data are stored on a Data Center.
  • Geotechnical engineers search on these datasets the information related to

the subdomain and to the period of their interest. If this subdomain contains more than one grid points, data are averaged in order to produce a single value for each variable (at each time step).

  • Geotechnical Engineers download data via FTP or WEB.
  • Geotechnical Engineers run their Finite Elements model (SEEP/W).

Use Case Description

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Output COSMO-CLM

NETCDF Files: each file contains the solution saved every 6 hrs, with a resolution of 8 km. (T2m, Totprec, U10m, rel hum…) Postprocessing (UNIX scripts based on CDO) Ascii files containing the transient history of variables (e.g. T2M and Tot. Prec.) in the site of interest SEEP/W: Finite Element Code for the evaluation of the effects on the soil of precipitations

Details on the Num. Hydro. Climate Chain

  • The COSMO‐CLM is the Climate Mode of the COSMO model system:
  • It is a non hydrostatic regional climate model atmospheric prediction system, developed by

the CLM‐Community.

  • It is designed for simulations on time scales up to centuries and spatial resolutions down to 1

km.

  • It is the only limited area numerical model system in Europe which has a range of

applicability encompassing: 1.

  • perational numerical weather prediction (COSMO)

2. regional climate modelling of past, present and future (CLM), 3. the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol (ART) and 4. idealized studies (ITC)

  • It is applicable for downscaling in all regions of the world and of most of the Global

Climate simulations available

  • It is fully documented.

The COSMO‐CLM regional climate model

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Climate change in Mediterranean area

Giorgi and Lionello (2008)

  • decreasing yearly cumulated rainfall values:
  • increasing surface warming:

2001‐2020 2081‐2100 summer ‐7% ‐28% fall ‐3% ‐15% spring ‐2% ‐14% winter ‐2% ‐8% 2001‐2020 2081‐2100 summer +0.7°C +4.6°C winter +0.7°C +3.1°C

  • intensified hydrological cycle due to greater atmospheric water holding

capacity

  • increasing variability: heavier rainfall events separated by longer dry periods

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Landslides with a shorter antecedent period, or those exhibit a strong response to relatively short term rainfall events, could be more vulnerable to the predicted increase variability of winter rainfall and so could experience a shorter return period for slope movements. …However, slope instability caused by longer periods of antecedent rainfall may occur less often in response to drier summers with increased evapotranspiration” Dixon&Brook(2007))

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Previous works

case study climatological model downscaling approach impact model

Boisivre (SE France) effective precipitation ‐> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) GCM (ECHAM4‐OPYC3; HADCM2GG; HADCM2GS) emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog‐downscaling empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope approach) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation‐> 90‐120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a weather generator 1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis MamTor(England) effective precipitation‐> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006) GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution rainfall thresholds

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CMCC first attempt: quantile based bias correction

case study climatological model downscaling approach impact model

  • Basento valley (Basilicata Region, South Italy)
  • effective precipitation ‐> wet season rainfalls
  • Comegna et al. (Landslides, 2012, DOI: 10.1007/s10346‐012‐0339‐3)

COSMO‐CLM 4.8 forced by CMCC‐MED; spatial resolution 8 km; IPCC scenario A1B; time period 1965‐2100 «quantile based» bias correction approach (Wood et al., 2004) hydrological : Vadose solving numerically the simoultaneous equations regulating thermal and hydraulic soil behaviour mechanical: relationship between pore water pressure and landslide movements

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Main results: expected (water pressure) landslide velocities

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CMCC second attempt: intermediate degree of grain

case study climatological model assumptions based on expected changes in annual rainfall regime impact model

  • Cervinara (Campania Region, south Italy)
  • effective precipitation (coupled effect of a trigger precipitation over a short

interval [24ore] + antecedent precipitations over a long time span [90d]

  • Damiano & Mercogliano [2011] (II World Landslides Forum )

COSMO‐CLM 4.8 forced by CMCC‐MED; spatial resolution 8 km; IPCC scenario A1B; considered time 1965‐2100

  • increase in storm intensities and number of dry days; no change in yearly

rainfall

  • increase in storm intensities during winter
  • heavy rainfall event added at the end of wet season

IMOD 3D‐ GIS model regional scale home‐made code hydrological : solving numerically Richards’ equation for estimating water pressure in isothermal conditions mechanical: infinite slope approach

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Main results: comparison between factors of stability (FS)

Assumption 1: increase in storm intensities and number of dry days; no change in yearly rainfall Assumption 2: increase in storm intensities during winter Assumption 3: heavy rainfall event added at the end of wet season

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Under development

Step 1: Simulation of the climate of the period 1971‐2000 with the regional model COSMO‐ CLM forced by ERA40 as perfect boundary

  • conditions. Data are calibrated using the MOS

downscaling technique. Step 2: Simulation of the climate of the period 1971‐2000 with the regional model COSMO‐ CLM forced by a global model. Calibration as in step 1. Step 3: Generation of regional climate scenarios for the XXI century . Calibration as in step 1  Input for the impact numerical modelization.

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Under development

MOS analog method: ‐the closest historical predictor B (the analog) considering the Euclidean distance between the two raw predictor fields is found, ‐then, the local precipitation observed, b, correspondent to the analog day B, is used as the downscaled precipitation of the day A (i.e. a=b). Turco et al. (2011) MOS downscaling for hydrological application

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CASE‐HISTORIES

‐ Orvieto (Umbria,Central Italy) ‐ Fosso San Martino (Abruzzo,Central Italy) ‐ Cervinara (Campania, South Italy) they are selected by virtue of wide availability

  • f data regarding previous landslide activity, soil

hydraulic and mechanical behaviour, meteorological observations

Under development

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Weather Analyst

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Gis tool for the study of the impact on soil of climate changes All the impact studies request data easily manipulated by GIS infrastructures and high space/time resolutions Weather Analyst is an extension

  • f Arcgis Desktop able to manage

atmospheric data provided by different sources (climate models, satellite data, radar, observations) The tools allows to perform:

  • Analysis of historical series
  • Analysis of climate scenarios
  • Statistical and stochastical downscaling

Griglie Cosmo LM NetCDF Rainfall Data

Input

Output

Xls .M Files

Esri GeoDB

ArcMap / Esri tools .Shp / .Kml Web GIS Catalogo

Weather Analyst

IMOD Export

Dati Satellitari

Interface Scheme

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Primo vicino Primo vicino Primo vicino Con buffer Primo vicino Con buffer Trend Polynomial Trend Polynomial Natural Neighbor Natural Neighbor IDW IDW RBF Spline RBF Spline Kriging Kriging MRI MRI RainFARM RainFARM Not in literature Not in literature Neighborhood Neighborhood Interpolating Interpolating Probabilistic Probabilistic

Downscaling techniques implemented Thanks