Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

U.S. BLM NOAA W. Stewert Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee GEOS INSTITUTE

Whole Community Adaptation HUMAN BUILT NATURAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL

Components of Vulnerability

Climate change is simple, serious, solvable • Basic chemistry • Models created to help predict future trends, not to explain climate change • OK to have doubts about the science O O O C O C O O O O O O

Global and Regional change 1.7 ○ F on average

Truckee, CA Climate Trends • Historical weather station (BOCA) • Cal-Adapt (4 primary models) • LOCA (downscaling) • Variables – temp, precip, snow, drought stress, runoff, vegetation, carbon storage

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE +2.0 ○ F on average 1937-66 vs. 1987-2016 Degrees Fahrenheit

EXTREME TEMPERATURE # Days Above 90 ○ F # Days Below Freezing -8 days/year +10 days/year In 2017 there were 240 days! In 2017 there were 35 days!

Precipitation Trends Percent Change in Annual Precipitation, from 1901-1960 (historical) to current Percent Change

Precipitation in inches AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

AVERAGE PRECIPITATION -1% on average 1937-66 vs. 1987-2016 Inches of precipitation

AVERAGE SNOWFALL -15% on average 1945-74 vs. 1988-2017 Inches of snow

Snowpack (April 1 SWE) -80% +80% -60% +60% -40% +40% -20% +20% • 90% of stations show declines • Loss of 15-30% overall

Temperature Projections WE ARE HERE 5-11 ○ F 2-6 ○ F 1-4 ○ F From IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2017

6-22 ○ F WE ARE HERE 5-11 ○ F 1-4 ○ F 2-3 ○ F From IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2017

Truckee temperature projections

BY 2050s ▪ Maximum temp +6 ○ to +7 ○ F ▪ 14-31 more days above 90 ○ F ▪ Avg. Precipitation -11% to +37% ▪ Snow water equivalent -68% to -71% ▪ Drought stress +32 to +51% ▪ 55 to 68 fewer nights below freezing ▪ -8% to +91% increase in wildfire

BY 2080s ▪ Maximum temp +8 ○ to +11 ○ F ▪ 32-57 more days above 90 ○ F ▪ Avg. Precipitation +1% to +61% ▪ Snow water equivalent -84% to -96% ▪ Drought stress +44 to +78% ▪ 78 to 115 fewer nights below freezing ▪ -15% to +60% increase in wildfire

2050s 2080s

Runoff – Percent of total each month OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Baseline (1981-2000) Future (2081-2100) From 2018 UCLA report Climate Change in the Sierra Nevada: California’s Water Future

What does this mean for Truckee?

Questions?

Snowfall -15%