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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee
GEOS INSTITUTE
U.S. BLM NOAA
- W. Stewert
Whole Community Adaptation
BUILT ECONOMIC HUMAN NATURAL CULTURAL
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
U.S. BLM NOAA W. Stewert Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Town of Truckee GEOS INSTITUTE Whole Community Adaptation HUMAN BUILT NATURAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL Components of Vulnerability Climate change is simple, serious,
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Components of Vulnerability
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Climate change is simple, serious, solvable
- Basic chemistry
- Models created to help predict future
trends, not to explain climate change
- OK to have doubts about the science
C C O O O O O O O O O O
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Global and Regional change
1.7 ○ F on average
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Truckee, CA Climate Trends
- Historical weather station (BOCA)
- Cal-Adapt (4 primary models)
- LOCA (downscaling)
- Variables – temp, precip, snow,
drought stress, runoff, vegetation, carbon storage
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
Degrees Fahrenheit
+2.0○ F on average 1937-66 vs. 1987-2016
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# Days Below Freezing
- 8 days/year
In 2017 there were 240 days!
# Days Above 90○ F +10 days/year
In 2017 there were 35 days!
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
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Precipitation Trends
Percent Change in Annual Precipitation, from 1901-1960 (historical) to current
Percent Change
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AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
Precipitation in inches
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AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
Inches of precipitation
- 1% on average
1937-66 vs. 1987-2016
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AVERAGE SNOWFALL
Inches of snow
- 15% on average
1945-74 vs. 1988-2017
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Snowpack (April 1 SWE)
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
+80% +60% +40% +20%
- 90% of stations show
declines
- Loss of 15-30% overall
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Temperature Projections
From IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2017 WE ARE HERE 5-11○ F 2-6○ F 1-4○ F
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From IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2017 5-11○ F 1-4○ F 6-22○ F 2-3○ F WE ARE HERE
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Truckee temperature projections
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BY 2050s ▪ Maximum temp +6○ to +7○ F ▪ 14-31 more days above 90 ○ F ▪ Avg. Precipitation -11% to +37% ▪ Snow water equivalent -68% to -71% ▪ Drought stress +32 to +51% ▪ 55 to 68 fewer nights below freezing ▪ -8% to +91% increase in wildfire
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BY 2080s ▪ Maximum temp +8○ to +11○ F ▪ 32-57 more days above 90 ○ F ▪ Avg. Precipitation +1% to +61% ▪ Snow water equivalent -84% to -96% ▪ Drought stress +44 to +78% ▪ 78 to 115 fewer nights below freezing ▪ -15% to +60% increase in wildfire
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2050s 2080s
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Runoff – Percent of total each month
From 2018 UCLA report Climate Change in the Sierra Nevada: California’s Water Future
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Baseline (1981-2000) Future (2081-2100)
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What does this mean for Truckee?
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Questions?
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Snowfall -15%