Climate Change Adaptation and Developing Countries S.V.R.K. - PDF document

Climate Change Adaptation and Developing Countries S.V.R.K. Prabhakar, PhD. Senior Climate Policy Researcher and Task Manager (Adaptation Task) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Hayama, Japan prabhakar@iges.or.jp Presented at Keio University SFC Campus, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan. 15 11 2013 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Outline • GHG emissions and mitigation in developing countries – Comparison of GHG emissions between developed and developing countries – Potential for GHG mitigation in developing countries – Constraints for GHG mitigation in developing countries • Adaptation to climate change – Need for adaptation in developing countries – Past and projected climate change impacts in AP region – Priority areas for adaptation – Financing adaptation is crucial: Current needs and gaps – Strategies for promoting adaptation: Adaptation Governance • Conclusions • Group Discussion on Scenario 2112 (Class Exercise) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG Emissions and Global Warming • The strong evidence linking human actions and global warming: Global mean surface temperature increase is directly correlated to cumulative total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from 1870s. (IPCC 2013) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 3 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IPCC. 2007. AR 4 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 4

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Global Warming and Climate Change • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” (IPCC 2007) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 5 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Impact of Global Warming on Vapour Circulation (IPCC 2007, WG I, Ch14) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 6

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Current and Future Impacts Likelihood of future trends Likelihood that trend occurred Likelihood of a human based on projections for 21st in late 20th century (typically contribution to observed century using SRES Phenomenon and direction post 1960) trend scenarios of trend Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land Very likely Likely Virtually certain areas Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain land areas Warm spells/heat waves.Frequency increases Likely More likely than not Very likely over most land areas Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from Likely More likely than not Very likely heavy falls)increases over most areas Area affected by droughts Likely in many regions since More likely than not Likely increases 1970s Intense tropical cyclone Likely in some regions since More likely than not Likely activity increases 1970 Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Likely More likely than not Likely (excludes tsunamis) (IPCC 2007) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 7 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Relation Between Climate Change and Development (IPCC SREX 2012) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 8

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Climate Change: Developed Countries Vs Developing Countries • Possible debate(able) points: • Past: – Climate change has ‘history’ (since post-industrialization period) – Developed countries have emitted (and hence developed) ‘first’ and hence contributed to climate change ‘first’ • Present and future: – Developed countries have more obligation to mitigate because of their historical emissions (historical responsibility) – Developing countries have development priorities and hence argue for ‘right to emit’ (arguably mitigation is costly for them) – Developed countries argue that emissions from some of the developing countries are on the rise and hence they should take responsibility in a progressive manner SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 9 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG EMISSIONS, MITIGATION AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 10

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG Emissions Dissected GHG emissions from OECD and G77-China 800 700 OECD G-77 China 600 500 400 728 623 300 200 224 100 16 17 14 3 46 0 Total (BtCO2e) Percapita (tons) Total (BtCO2e) Percapita (tons) 2005 emissions Cumulative emissions (1850-2005) Data source: WRI CAIT, 2009 • GHG emissions are rapidly growing for all countries with higher rate in developing countries after 1975 However, per capita emissions of developing countries are 1/4 th of • the developed countries (historically it is 1/13 th ) SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 11 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies World Bank, 2009 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 12

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG Emissions Dissected • Land-use Changes contribute to second largest emissions after power in middle income countries • In low-income countries, LUCs can account up to 50% of total emissions followed by agriculture World Bank, 2009 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 13 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG Emissions from Developing Countries The nature of emissions from developed and developing countries is different: LUCs are significant in developing world World Bank, 2009 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 14

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies GHG Mitigation Investment Requirements (billion Euros per annum until 2030) • High investment costs have become deterrents for developing countries to act upon mitigation • There is a developing consensus that developing countries need external support to mitigate McKinsey, 2010 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 15 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Potential Sectors for GHG Mitigation in Developing Countries World Bank, 2009 • There is high potential for low cost mitigation options in developing countries • Relatively low potential for low cost mitigation in agriculture and forestry for developing countries SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 16

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Developmental Needs of Developing Countries So, adaptation is important for developing countries! SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 17 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPING WORLD SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 18

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Globally, Adaptation is Important for Centuries to Come Source: IPCC TAR, 2001 After CO 2 emissions are reduced and atmospheric concentrations stabilized, climate change impacts will continue to be felt several years into the future SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies High CC Impacts in Developing Countries High Exposure High Sensitivity Poor Adaptive Capacity Potential Impacts Net High Impacts Net high impacts in Asia Pacific region due to high exposure, high sensitivity and poor adaptive capacity • Climate change impacts are function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. • Impacts are directly proportional to exposure and sensitivity and indirectly proportional to adaptive capacity. SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013 20