[PDF] - Climate Change Adaptation and Developing Countries S.V.R.K. PDF Document

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Climate Change Adaptation and Developing Countries

S.V.R.K. Prabhakar, PhD. Senior Climate Policy Researcher and Task Manager (Adaptation Task) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Hayama, Japan prabhakar@iges.or.jp

Presented at Keio University SFC Campus, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan. 15 11 2013

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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Outline

GHG emissions and mitigation in developing countries

– Comparison of GHG emissions between developed and developing countries – Potential for GHG mitigation in developing countries – Constraints for GHG mitigation in developing countries

Adaptation to climate change

– Need for adaptation in developing countries – Past and projected climate change impacts in AP region – Priority areas for adaptation – Financing adaptation is crucial: Current needs and gaps – Strategies for promoting adaptation: Adaptation Governance

Conclusions
Group Discussion on Scenario 2112 (Class Exercise)

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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GHG Emissions and Global Warming

3

(IPCC 2013)

The strong

evidence linking human actions and global warming: Global mean surface temperature increase is directly correlated to cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870s.

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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IPCC. 2007. AR 4

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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Global Warming and Climate Change

“Warming of the climate

system is unequivocal, as is now evident from

bservations of

increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” (IPCC 2007)

5 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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Impact of Global Warming on Vapour Circulation

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(IPCC 2007, WG I, Ch14)

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Phenomenon and direction

f trend

Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960) Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES scenarios Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Very likely Likely Virtually certain Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain Warm spells/heat waves.Frequency increases

ver most land areas

Likely More likely than not Very likely Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls)increases over most areas Likely More likely than not Very likely Area affected by droughts increases Likely in many regions since 1970s More likely than not Likely Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely in some regions since 1970 More likely than not Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely More likely than not Likely

Current and Future Impacts

7

(IPCC 2007)

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Relation Between Climate Change and Development

8

(IPCC SREX 2012)

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Climate Change: Developed Countries Vs Developing Countries

Possible debate(able) points:
Past:

– Climate change has ‘history’ (since post-industrialization period) – Developed countries have emitted (and hence developed) ‘first’ and hence contributed to climate change ‘first’

Present and future:

– Developed countries have more obligation to mitigate because of their historical emissions (historical responsibility) – Developing countries have development priorities and hence argue for ‘right to emit’ (arguably mitigation is costly for them) – Developed countries argue that emissions from some of the developing countries are on the rise and hence they should take responsibility in a progressive manner

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GHG EMISSIONS, MITIGATION AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

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GHG Emissions Dissected

11 16 14 728 623 17 3 224 46 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Total (BtCO2e) Percapita (tons) Total (BtCO2e) Percapita (tons) 2005 emissions Cumulative emissions (1850-2005)

GHG emissions from OECD and G77-China

OECD G-77 China Data source: WRI CAIT, 2009

GHG emissions are rapidly growing for all countries with higher rate

in developing countries after 1975

However, per capita emissions of developing countries are 1/4th of

the developed countries (historically it is 1/13th)

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World Bank, 2009

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GHG Emissions Dissected

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Land-use Changes contribute to

second largest emissions after power in middle income countries

In low-income countries, LUCs can

account up to 50% of total emissions followed by agriculture

World Bank, 2009

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GHG Emissions from Developing Countries

14 World Bank, 2009

The nature of emissions from developed and developing countries is different: LUCs are significant in developing world

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GHG Mitigation Investment Requirements

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McKinsey, 2010

(billion Euros per annum until 2030)

High investment costs have become

deterrents for developing countries to act upon mitigation

There is a developing consensus that

developing countries need external support to mitigate

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Potential Sectors for GHG Mitigation in Developing Countries

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World Bank, 2009

There is high potential for low cost mitigation options in developing countries
Relatively low potential for low cost mitigation in agriculture and forestry for

developing countries

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Developmental Needs of Developing Countries

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So, adaptation is important for developing countries!

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ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPING WORLD

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Globally, Adaptation is Important for Centuries to Come

Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

After CO2 emissions are reduced and atmospheric concentrations stabilized, climate change impacts will continue to be felt several years into the future

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High CC Impacts in Developing Countries

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Net high impacts in Asia Pacific region due to high exposure, high sensitivity and poor adaptive capacity

High Exposure High Sensitivity Potential Impacts Poor Adaptive Capacity Net High Impacts

Climate change impacts are function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
Impacts are directly proportional to exposure and sensitivity and indirectly

proportional to adaptive capacity.

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High poverty levels, especially in rural areas (500 million

subsistence farmers in AP region), characterized by low human development index

High dependency on primary production sectors such as

agriculture and animal husbandry (nearly 60% of total population), that are directly impacted by climate change, coupled with lack of diversified livelihood options

Least access to resources (inequality) coupled with rapid

degradation of natural resource base including forests

Poor governance and institutional systems (political, social,

environmental and economic) reflecting fragmented and slow progress in development

Adaptation is Important for Developing Countries: High Sensitivity

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High Exposure of Asia to Climatic Events

High incidence of hydro-met events such as droughts, floods, cyclones/typhoons, heat

waves etc in Asia.

Source: ISDR, 2009

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Current Impacts: Hydro-meteorological Disasters

India Vietnam

Source: EMDAT, 2007 Source: EMDAT, 2007

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Country GDP per capita (USD) Population (million) Number of typhoons Fatalities Fatalities per event

Japan 38,160 126 13 352 27 Philippines 1,200 74 39 6,835 175 Bangladesh 360 124 14 151,045 10,788

Source: Mechler, 2004

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Costs of Natural Hazards are Increasing

24 Source: ADB, 2009

Estimated costs of damage from floods and storms

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Adaptive Capacity in Developing and Developed Asia and Pacific

Determinants of adaptive capacity Developing South Asia Developing East Asia Pacific World

Per capita GNI, PPP basis (USD) 2733 5399 10,357 Technology patent applications (total since 2000) 129,035 1,214,326 12,420,319 % of paved roads in total (proxy) 30.8 (2000) [57 (2004)] 11.4 (2000) 36 (2000) Resource allocation (IRAI, rated

n 1-6 scale)

3.5 (IDA countries) 3.3 (IDA countries) 3.3 (IDA countries)

The World Bank, 2009; WIPO, 2009

Developing South Asia lag in economic development and technology

exports

Developing East Asia Pacific lag in infrastructure and resource

allocation

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Current Impacts: Glacier Melting and Vulnerable River Basins

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Glacial melting in Himalayas can seriously impact fresh water availability in several river basins in the region.
Melting leads to expansion of glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Source: http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com

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Other Significant Observed Impacts in AP Region

Increase in frequency of glacial lake outbursts in

Himalayan region: From 0.38 events per year in 1950s to 0.54 events per year in 1990s

Increase in glacial lake size: 0.23 km2 in 1957 to 1.65

km2 in 1997

Shoreline erosion due to coral bleaching, mangrove

clearance, and sand mining in SE Asia and Indian Ocean

IPCC FAR, 2007 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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Future Impacts of Climate Change

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Global warming would negatively impact agricultural yields in most

f the

developing world

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Key Future Impacts in AP Region

Greater food security challenges for South Asia due to

decline in rice and wheat yields and area under wheat

Decline in freshwater availability in many parts of Asia
Spring flooding and irrigation shortage in South Asia
Coastal flooding due to SLR in South, East and South-

East Asia with –ve impact on Asian Megadeltas

Enhanced glacial melt and related outbursts in Himalayan

region

Increase in malaria and cholera in South and Central Asia

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Priority Areas for Adaptation in Asia Pacific

Analysis of NAPAs indicate that highest importance has been given to the

following sectors by most Non-Annex I countries:

– Agriculture – Water – Coastal Zone Management

Priority sectors and costs differs from country to country

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Country Priority area NAPA Cost s (USD Million) Priority area National Total Bangladesh Coastal Zone Management 23 41.67 Bhutan GLOF mitigation 3.19 7.53 Cambodia Irrigation systems 45 128.85 Maldives Fresh water availability 9.3 24.04

Source: UNFCCC, 2009

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Cost-benefit of Adaptation

31 Source: ADB, 2009

Adaptation benefits are

much higher than the costs in the 4 countries of South East Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam; Figure on left)

By 2100, the benefits of

adaptation would reach to the tune of 1.9% of GDP when compared to costs at 0.2%

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Critical Barriers and Options for Enhanced Adaptation in Asia Pacific Region

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Adaptation Costs

Source Measures Cost (2010-15) USD Billion Cost (2030) USD Billion World Bank Climate proofing developmental assistance (a) 9-41 Stern review (a) 4-37 UNDP (a)+ climate proofing PRSP and DM 86-109 Oxfam (a)+NAPAs and NGOs >50 UNFCCC Ag., water, forestry, water, health, coastal protection etc (2) 28-67 Project catalyst Capacity building, research, DM, + (2) 15-37 World Bank (EACC) (2)+extreme weather events >80

Source: WB WDR 2010

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Big gap between need and available resources
Possible conflict between adaptation (as private good) and public

investments (public good) is limiting the potential investments?

Source Amount (million USD) Time period Adaptation Fund (2% levy) 1151 Until 2012 GEF SCCF 34.52 Currently undisbursed GEF LDC 75.17 Currently undisbursed GEF Trust Fund 3130 (deposited) Until June 2010 WB SCF 1700 (Pledges) NA Cool Earth Partnership, GOJ 2000 (Pledges) Until 2013 Total 8090.69

Available Finances for Adaptation

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Two-Pronged Approach for Climate Risk Reduction

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a. Non-catastrophic risks: Risks from change of mean state of climate

a. Within the capacity of national

systems

b. Local knowledge is useful
c. E.g. Community based

adaptation, weather based crop insurance schemes etc. b. Catastrophic risks: Risks from changes in extremes

a. Need external assistance in

terms of finances and experiences

b. Local knowledge often fall

short

c. E.g. Global and regional

catastrophic risk insurance schemes, adaptation networks

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Insurance Penetration in Developing World

36 Source: SwissRe, 2007

Insurance has largely been developed in developed countries
Risk insurance costs in developing countries are huge due to poor

infrastructure and high vulnerabilities

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Reasons for Poor Penetration of Insurance

High base risks
Poor enabling environment (government policies,

reactive culture of governments)

Poor private sector presence
Poor presence of re-insurers
Social and cultural factors related to risk

management (lethal attitude)

Lack of historical data on various risk factors that

help in designing risk insurance systems (e.g. rainfall amount and corresponding crop loss)

37 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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Two Approaches to Climate Decision Making

►Decision making based on the past climate

– Assumes general development programs would suffice to take care of climate change – Most followed ideology – Many national communications generally list developmental programs in the place of adaptation initiations

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Decisions those are valid for the future, based on future

climate forecasts

– Less information – No dependable climate forecasts

Time scales (near and far)
Spatial scale (AR4:~110 sqkm, AR3: 180 sqkm; FAR: 500sqkm)

– Less understanding on the climate system

Complex ocean and atmospheric interaction
Solar and lunar influence

Two Approaches to Climate Decision Making…

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Adaptation Governance is Crucial

Mitigation Adaptation Has a protocol (KP) that governs No ‘protocol’ to govern adaptation There are GHG reduction targets to meet with coordinated efforts There are no ‘adaptation targets’ to meet Ways and means to measure the impact of collective actions No streamlined measurement system for adaptation Global actions and global benefits (more

rganized at global level)

Mostly local actions and local benefits (with some undeniable global spillover benefits) Physical principles that govern mitigation At nascent stages: Complex interaction of biophysical and socioeconomic elements

Adaptation deals with systems

– that are at different levels of adaptive capacity – Several adaptation options deferring in their effectiveness and outcomes

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Adaptation Governance is Crucial

Higher stakes now since even more funds are to be

spent on adaptation

There would be greater role played by global institutions

who may not fully understand the local priorities

Inadequate experience of implementing adaptation in a

large scale (if we think that the current course of development is not contributing to adaptation).

– NAPAs are mostly project focused and not programmatic. – Additional capacity is also needed to accept funds.

Successful adaptation regime may demand extensive

monitoring leading to high transaction costs

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What Does Adaptation Governance Mean?

Current situation:
Fragmented institutional mechanisms
Project based initiatives and programs, often replicated across ministries and agencies
Monitoring has traditionally been limited to financial and infrastructure and least on human/social

aspects

Accountability for effective implementation has not been well developed

UNFCCC/ COP/ MOP A Body on Adaptation National Governments

National & Sectoral Developm ent strategies/ prog ram s/ policies Basis for allocation Basis for m onitoring Basis for reporting Basis for incentives Basis for allocation Basis for m onitoring Basis for reporting Basis for incentives

Software Hardware

I nstitutions AFB WB MDBs

I nstitutional system s for

fund allocation, im plem entation, m onitoring, and reporting

Hum an resources

Local Governments

Action Platform

Basis for allocation Basis for m onitoring Basis for reporting Basis for incentives

I nstitutional system s for

im plem entation, m onitoring, and reporting

Hum an resources

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Why Better Adaptation Governance?

1. Past Experience: Global Developmental Initiatives
Johannesburg Plan of Action (SD)

– Non-binding (voluntary) – No financial incentives for countries – Limited understanding on sustainable development at the early stages

MDGs

– Overly ambitious for some and inadequate for others – Insufficient funding – Doesn’t cover the entire gamut of SD

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

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n=54; Source: Survey on monitoring Paris Declaration, 2008

Why Better Adaptation Governance?

2. Past Experience: ODA

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MRVs for Improving Governance

Ability to measure adaptation progress

– Adaptation metrics toolkit? – Over emphasis may divert attention?

Identifying adaptation benchmarks/ baseline

year/targets

Extensive transaction costs

– Monitoring and reporting

Country sovereignty issue

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Need for Metrics: BAP on Adaptation (Section c, i-v)

“Enhanced action on adaptation with consideration of

…prioritization of actions…and support adaptation in a coherent and integrated manner”

“Positive incentives for developing countries for

enhanced mitigation and adaptation actions”

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How to Prioritize and Incentivize Adaptation Actions?

By

– Knowing where we want to go (adaptation targets?) – Setting a time frame – Knowing how much ‘adaptation’ we want to achieve at each stage to meet the target

This is facilitated by

– Setting a base line of adaptation (to compare the progress and effectiveness) – And agreeing on a measurement system (adaptation metrics)

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Adaptation Metrics

Metric:

–A system of measurement –The unit of measurement –Value of the unit

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Advantages of Adaptation Metrics

Ability to measure adaptation at any given point
f time
Provide a means to compare the level of

adaptation reached across locations, regions, societies and nations

Help in decision making related to identification

and prioritization of appropriate adaptation actions and for funding

Help track the progress over the time scales
Help in minimizing the risk of mal-adaptation

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Adaptation Metrics for Planned Adaptation

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Climate Change (Including variability) Planned adaptation Mitigation Human Interference Exposure Impacts Autonomous Ad. Net impacts Policy Responses Impacts Vulnerabilities

Adaptation Metrics

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Criteria for Adaptation Metrics

Measurable

– Cost effective

Scalable
Comparable

– Across time and geographical scales

Context specific

– Specific to system being measured

Sensitive to degree of adaptation
Learning and evolving

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Different Metrics

Qualitative and quantitative

– Cost and time resources, effectiveness

Direct and proxy

– To accommodate those cannot be directly measured

Ex-ante vs. Ex-post

– To chose options and to measure outcomes

Local vs National

– To accommodate differential impacts of climate change at different scales

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Adaptation Metrics in Agriculture Sector

Metric/s Reference Description on availability and limitations (includes authors judgement) Mean and variability of yield and production, income, aggregate of value added Tubiello and Rosenzweig, 2008 Measured and computed metrics. Available at local, national, regional and international levels in many countries. The aggregate of value added may need to be computed at the local level as such statistics will not be readily available. Nutrition index Tubiello and Rosenzweig, 2008 Computed metric (sum of local production and net imports divided by total food demand). Can be computed at national and regional level. Yield estimates (remotely sensed), yield variability, highest relative yield/yield percentile Luers et al., 2003 Estimates could help in filling the gaps in the existing yield data, validating the measured yield data etc. Accuracy could be an issue when resolution of remote sensing is low. Agricultural export, farm income, out-migration from farming, emergency payments Venema, 2006 Agricultural exports and out-migration of farming are mostly applicable at the macro-economic level, while data on rest of the metrics (emergency payments) could be sparingly available. Sources of income, livestock number, source of fertilizer Brooks and Adger, 2005 It was not clear on how many sources of income is considered as optimal, and also the number of cattle. However, it is suggested that the higher the sources of income, with more diversification into non-farm sources, the higher the adaptive capacity.

IGES, 2008

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Problems with Earlier Suggestions

Several single metrics doesn’t often provide

an intuitive overall picture of adaptation in a sector

Policy makers may often prefer single

composite index representing the entire sector with a single number (not withstanding their intrinsic limitation)

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Some Composite Indices

GDP, HDI…

– Grossly averages out, and even nullifies, the impacts at the sectoral and sub- national level – Criticized as either too primitive or too unattainable (e.g. HDI) – Lack of consensus among various stakeholders

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Some Composite Indices

Index of Usefulness of Practices for

Adaptation to climate change (IUPA) Index (Claudio Szlafsztein, Federal University of Para, Brazil)

– Integrates both qualitative and quantitative parameters into a single index – Choosing the weightings for individual parameters is a question

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A Framework for Institutionalizing Adaptation Metrics

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Determinants of adaptive capacity

Economic resources Technology Information and skills Infrastructure Institutions Equity

Determinants adequate Determinants inadequate Net high impacts Enhanced vulnerability Net low impacts Reduced vulnerability

Figure: Determinants of adaptive capacity and their link with climatic vulnerability (Prabhakar and Srinivasan, 2009)

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1

Ac Ac Aex  

Where Aex is effectiveness of adaptation action x; Ac0 and Ac1 are Adaptive Capacity at points

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What Asian Countries have done so far? A Brief Update

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Agriculture

Some of the countries have already initiated

vulnerability assessments with respect to climate change.

These vulnerability assessments consisted of

identifying and analyzing the impact of climate change and variability on natural eco-systems, socio-economic systems, and human health.

Some assessments also considered the

institutional and financial capacities of the local communities, assessing the spontaneous and planned adaptation measures already taken up, and developing technical, institutional and financial strategies to reduce vulnerabilities.

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Agriculture…

Major adaptation initiatives being taken up by the countries in Asia

Pacific region could broadly be grouped into the following

– Development of crop varieties that are tolerant to perceived threats that includes droughts, pests and diseases (Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam) – Expanding area under irrigation and efforts for better water management including watershed management practices (Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Vietnam) – Improving weather forecasts and linking with farm decision making (Australia and India) – Drought monitoring systems are being put in place though do not completely cover the entire country or are in inception stage (China, India, Vietnam, Australia) – Investment in rural infrastructure that promotes access to markets that in turn enhances the resilience of rural communities which is more relevant for the developing countries in the region (India, China, Sri Lanka)

Source: From different sources SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Water Scarcity

Country Significant initiatives Bangladesh  National level comprehensive disaster management initiative that encompasses drought as a theme which in turn brings together various stakeholders  Promotion of groundwater use in Barind region  Development of appropriate land and crop management practices to reduce the drought risk China  Drought monitoring using ground based observatories and remote sensing  Drought risk zoning classification in place  Massive plantations being planned and implemented to stabilize the desertification process India  National crop weather watch group that monitors drought during monsoon season  Integrated watershed development projects being taken up in drought prone areas  Desert development program (DDP) has been implemented in areas prone to desertification Indonesia  Integrated water resource management in Citarum river basin, climate field schools, SRI Vietnam  Laws and decrees exist that provides for drought and water management  Peoples participation in water resource management  Development of water resource monitoring network  International cooperation in water resource management  Establishment of Mekong River Commission Australia  Drought relief payment system put in place for the affected farmers  National water initiative by Australian Water Fund  Water proofing projects, water strategies at state level, improving water use efficiency in various water-dependent sectors, emphasis on water recycling, water conservation measures are in place

Source: From different sources

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Other Vulnerability Reduction Initiatives

Country Land and rural development initiatives Bangladesh  Livestock enterprise development  Microfinance through self help groups China  Legal changes that would give farmers long-term security on the land (to provide tenure security) India  Secure drinking water supply  Wage employment, employment assurance, food for work, rural housing, social security programs, land reforms etc  Watershed development programs such as Drought Prone Areas Program (DPAP) and Desert Development Program (DDP) Indonesia  Food security enhancement program Vietnam  Agricultural diversification  Strengthening the agriculture extension programs  Ongoing efforts to improve access to rural water supply and sanitation Sri Lanka  Significant investment in natural resource management

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Climate change adaptation and development are closely

intertwined.

There is a need for enhancing the coordination between

various institutions and governments at the local, national and regional levels.

regional cooperation could be identified in the areas of

drought and desertification monitoring.

Relevant weather and climate forecasts that help the end-

users to take decisions with more confidence by improving the consistency, quality and value of the forecasts.

The potential of resource conserving technologies such as

zero and reduced tillage may be explored in the region as they conserve the soil moisture and reduce the off-farm inputs considerably.

Conclusion

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Conclusion

Integrated river basin management should be

given more thrust than they are being given at the moment.

Demand side management of natural resources

is another issue needs more consideration.

A prudent water sharing mechanism between

various water using sectors is an absolute necessity for the countries in the region (complete water balance).

There is a clear linkage between coping

capacity and land tenure arrangement. Countries in the region enhance the process of streamlining land tenure arrangements.

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Conclusion

Enhancing the capacities of local

governments and communities is important for achieving resilience to climate change.

Community based planning can enable

governments to gain better understanding on the vulnerabilities of the communities.

A shift from ad-hoc measures to planned

relief interventions that aims at creating longer-term livelihood options is an important thing to be considered for better vulnerability reduction.

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Way Forward: Some requisites

►Mainstreaming climate change adaptation concerns in developmental planning

– Strategic thinking: Short term goals vs longer term problem – Validity of current actions in future

►Identification of win-win strategies ►Act where hints are clear and keep on watch where hints are not clear

– Reducing the uncertainty: Understanding climate system for dependable climate forecast – Climate Vulnerability Impact Assessment of projects and programs

n the lines of EIA

►Developing capacities for decision making under uncertainty: Climate integrated decision making, climate task groups (CTGs)

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Way Forward: climate regime under UNFCCC can help progress adaptation in agriculture and water sectors

►Identify agriculture and water sectors as priority areas for investment of global adaptation funds ►New and innovative financing adaptation: Soil carbon sequestration credits can help fund adaptation ►Facilitate enhanced agro-technology transfer from haves to have-nots

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

CLASS EXERCISE (GROUP DISCUSSION)

Lecture on Climate Change Adaptation in Asia

69

SVRK Prabhakar, IGES, Hayama, Japan Schedule: 30 min Discussion 10 min Presentation

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

The Scenario 2112

Global GHG emissions and temperatures have

stabilized at 1990 level.

Droughts and floods are a rare events
The desertification has stopped in most places and

retreated in few places

Global biodiversity loss has been stabilized
People have returned to coastal areas
Food production is now possible on all the global arable

land

Urbanization and industrialization are no more

degrading the environment and hence are no more a threat to sustainable development

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SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Derive answers for these questions

Do you think this is a possible scenario? Give a probability

rating for this to happen.

What has led to this situation?
Who are the reason behind these trends?
Countries (developed or developing) and socio-economic

profile of people within each country behind these impacts

What options (technology and policy) have we used?
Who (developed or developing countries) had the

technologies, finances and human resources and how they got them to others who needed them?

What global architecture was designed to facilitate that

transaction and transition?

71 SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

What principles governed the negotiations between developed and

developing countries for achieving this transition?

What is/are your message/s to the future governments? (1-3

messages are sufficient)

Presentation of outcomes in 10 min each group
Email the discussion notes to prabhakar@iges.or.jp!

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Derive answers for these questions

SLIDE 37

SVRK Prabhakar IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Keio University Lecture, 15 Nov 2013

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

THANK YOU!

Contact: prabhakar@iges.or.jp; sivapuram.prabhakar@gmail.com

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