Cities and Climate Change UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Cities and Climate Change UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 29, 2022 473 likes •742 views

Cities and Climate Change UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change and Development Policy Greening Cities in Developing Countries Marcus Lee Urban Development Unit, The World Bank www.worldbank.org/urban THE WORLD BANK Urbanization continues

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Cities and Climate Change

Marcus Lee Urban Development Unit, The World Bank www.worldbank.org/urban

UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change and Development Policy Greening Cities in Developing Countries

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Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzhen today

Urbanization continues apace across much of the world – more than 1 million new resident weekly

Source for data: WHO – Global Health Observatory, 2012 Source for images: www.shenzenparty.com

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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 urban population (millions) percent urban urban population percent urban

Africa is the next frontier for urbanization – take Nairobi, for example

Created by: Henry Jewell (FEUUR), Katie McWilliams and Alex Stoicof, SDNIS-World Bank

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Source: W DR2 0 0 9

Cities are drivers of economic growth and prosperity – although urban poverty remains a challenge

Percentage of national GDP generated in urban areas (McKinsey 2012):

US: 85%

China: 78%

Western Europe: 65%

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 Up to 80% of global GHG emissions are ultimately attributable to the residents of cities (including embodied emissions)  Cities account for 67% of global energy consumption today (IEA 2009) Cities need to build infrastructure now, to support the large population inflow, making them the fastest growing source of GHG emissions  Cities continuously face the challenge to balance development and environmental needs

Cities are essential for global climate change mitigation

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China

Brazil Germany

India

Japan United States Sweden Korea, Rep. South Africa

5 10 15 20 25 15 35 55 75

Urban population ( % of total)

Source: World Development I ndicators

Bubble size corresponds to total carbon dioxide emissions (kilotons)

Carbon dioxide emissions, 1967-2005 (tons per capita)

Global trends in income, urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions

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Source: World Development Report, World Bank 2010 (World Bank Urban Strategy, 2009).

Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption

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Decisions today are limited by decisions in the past

Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007).

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Few cities with high incomes and low emissions…

Source: World Bank, Towards a Partnership for Sustainable Cities (forthcoming)

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Sectoral analysis of GHG emissions from selected cities

Source: World Bank, 2010.

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An international standard is essential for establishing baselines and monitoring progress

Supported by UNEP , UN-HABITAT, World Bank and World Resources Institute http: / / blogs.worldbank.org/ sustainablecities

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Elements of a city-wide approach to mitigation efforts

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A city-wide approach to carbon finance enables aggregation of city GHG reductions across sectors

Rationale: overcome hurdle of high transaction costs for individual CDM Project Activities (CPAs) in a given city

The door is now open for city-wide Programmes of Activities (PoAs)

  • Cancun: Decision 3/ CMP.6 – Parties requested CDM Executive

Board (EB) to simplify PoAs for multiple methodologies, “including for possible city-wide programmes”

  • Sept 2011: EB 63/ Annex 4 – Standard for Application of Multiple

CDM Methodologies for PoAs

VCS generally accepts all CDM rules, so now – in principle – could validate a city-wide project

Rio de Janeiro is also developing and implementing its Low Carbon City Development Program – enables standardized MRV of emissions reductions

Yet, uncertainty on post-2012 regime, and globally depressed carbon prices

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TRANSPORT BUILDINGS PUBLIC LIGHTING WATER & WASTEWATER POWER & HEATING SOLID WASTE

Exam ple: Tool for Rapid Assessm ent of City Energy ( TRACE)

An I nnovative Decision Support Tool for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Cities

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Urban vulnerability to climate change

CITIES IN HIGHLY IMPACTED REGIONS: tropical, sub-tropical ecosystems, arid and water-stressed countries, island states

COASTAL CITIES: all coastal cities, particularly those in deltaic environments, those with high levels of land-reclamation

CITIES IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: where institutional resilience, financial resources and technical capacity are scarce

Djibouti-Ville (Bigio)/Jakarta (Ratnaningsih)

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Climate change impacts on cities

DI RECT

 Sea level rise  Flooding and landslides  Heat waves  Increased “heat island

effect”

 Water scarcity  Decreasing water

quality

 Worsening air quality  Ground ozone

formation

I NDI RECT

 Frequency, intensity of

natural disasters

 Accelerated urbanization  Environmental refugees  Increased energy

demand for heating or cooling

 Epidemics, worsening

public health

 Availability and pricing of

food

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SECTOR Clim ate Scenario DRY W ET Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 2 .5 2 .6 W ater supply 1 9 .7 1 4 .4 Hum an health 1 .5 2 .0 Coastal zones 2 7 .6 2 8 .5 I nfrastructure 1 3 .0 2 7 .5 Extrem e events 6 .4 6 .7 Total 7 1 .2 8 1 .5 Adding costs differently 7 0 .0 1 0 0 .0

2005 Constant Prices, 0% Discounting Source: World Bank 2010, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change

Annual global costs of adaptation, by sector

2010-2050, in USD billions

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Urban Risk Assessment

I nstitutional Assessm ent Hazard Assessm ent Socioeconom ic Assessm ent

  • Legal

Foundations

  • National/ Region

al Fram ew orks

  • Basic I nform ation

; Land Use, Basic Services, Geophysical

  • Dem ographic

I nform ation Institutional mapping for disaster risk and climate change Hazard analysis for city Socioeconomic analysis of city residents Interventions analysis; key resources, policies, tools, programs, coordination Hazard exposure maps Identification of vulnerable areas Interventions gap analysis Risk modeling for natural hazards and climate change Community profiles and Slum mapping Adaptive capacity assessments; fiscal transfers Probabilistic risk assessment software Household hazard and vulnerability surveys

C O S T C O M P L E X I T Y

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  • Suggests steps for integrated

climate change adaptation and ways to build partnerships

  • Gives actual examples of actions at

the local level

  • Proposes a roadmap for adaptation

and suggests performance indicators

  • Analyzes financial challenges and
  • pportunities for adaptation at the

city level

  • Emphasizes cross-sectoral

collaboration and outlines 9 different sectors (informal settlements, transportation, public health, etc.)

PDF document at http://go.worldbank.org/F6TB1XE3M0

  • Guide for urban practitioners & mayors to understand specifics and

importance of engaging in climate change adaptation at the city level

  • Provides practical insights about climate change for cities in developing

countries, addressing main challenges & possible opportunities

Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities

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Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor

Some key findings

  • The urban poor are particularly vulnerable

to climate change and natural hazards due to where they live within cities and the lack of reliable basic services.

  • Local governments play a vital role in

providing basic services to address risks and increase resilience of the urban poor.

  • Adapting to climate change and reducing

disaster risk is best address and sustained through integration with existing urban planning and management.

  • Significant financial support is needed;

cities need to leverage existing and new resources to meet shortfalls in service delivery and basic infrastructure

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Look to climate finance more broadly, but there is less available than commonly thought

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UNDP-WB effort: www.climatefinanceoptions.org

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This m odule is part of a learning course on CDM PoA

Learning: Clim ate Finance opportunities in cities

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  • Matching:

A ‘professional dating’ service that automatically matches urban policymakers, decision makers and technical professionals to each other worldwide.

  • Messaging:

Get in direct contact with your counterparts in other cities.

  • Communities of Practice:

Community-based Q&A.

  • 1. CONNECTIONS
  • Exchange:

Tightly-focused videoconferences on the most knotty knowledge gaps.

  • Policy insights:

New collaborative research on policy-relevant questions.

  • Briefings:

Pithy summaries of knowledge exchange events, and expert viewpoints.

2. KNOWLEDGE

  • Indicators:

Common indicators to benchmark cities for international comparisons.

  • Integration with Open311 and Google:

Open access to municipal-level data.

  • 3. CITIES DATA

Our Objective

UrbanKnowledge.Org aims to put the world’s best knowledge and data in the hands of policymakers and practitioners, in order to harness urban growth for better development outcomes.

Our 3 Components Our 4 Thematic Pillars

ECONOMIC: rural-to-urban transition. Happens once in a country's lifetime ...but how can it best be facilitated for economic growth? ENVIRONMENTAL: sustainable urban growth Low-density cities are hardwiring environmental costs ...so how to manage urbanization to improve sustainability? GOVERNANCE: creating accountable cities and towns Poorly governed cities don’t deliver on the promise of urbanization ...so what systems of governance are suited for managing urbanization?

Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 4

SOCIAL: social inclusion and mobility Urbanization embodies structural inequalities ...so how to incorporate the urban poor in a city's economic fabric?

Meet o

  • ur

r Partn tners: An And y d you?

Urbanization Know ledge Platform

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Thank You