Asia Pacific Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft 2019-2038 Ye TIAN (Yanni) Airbus Marketing Asia
2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year 2019 2018 7.4% 5.0% RPK growth RPK growth 3.2% 2.7% GDP growth GDP growth +280 +200 million passengers million passengers 81.9% 82.1% Record Load factor Record Load factor 9 th 10 th year of solid year of solid airline profitability airline profitability Note: IATA forecast as of June 2019 2 Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
10 years of strong growth and solid profitability World annual added traffic (billion RPKs) Oil Gulf Asian Financial 9/11 SARS 750 Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis Billions +600 billion 600 RPKs 450 300 150 0 2018 2019 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -150 $269 bn $292 bn Profit* profit * IATA Forecast, June 2019 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019 3
Drivers for Growth Urbanisation Liberalisation Wealth - 2000: - On average - 2000: 47% 700 net routes ~ 900 million of World population in urban areas added each year since 2000 emerging countries Middle-Class - 2018: - 2018: 55% 2.7 billion Source: UN Population, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019 4
The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity +2 8.4 1998 Daily Utilisation 2018 10.7 hours/day 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 +18 160 1998 Average +40% 300m 1998 RPK (m) 178 2018 Seats per seats/flight per a/c 2018 415m Flight 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 400 +13pp Load 69% 1998 Factor 82% 2018 0% 50% 100% Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus GMF 2019 5
Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO 2 reduction Fuel consumption & CO 2 emissions Base 100 in 1990 based on Kilograms per RPK (avg.) 100 90 -53% 80 2018 vs. 1990 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: IATA, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019 6
New generation 400 twin-aisle Family A350XWB-1000 25% 25% less fuel than previous generation* 350 Seating Capacity 4 optimally sized long-haul aircraft A350XWB-900 Same Same pilot and passenger experience 300 A330-900neo Typical 3-class configurations shown *Previous generation competitors: 767 and 777 A330-800neo
Asia-Pacific – Key Drivers Leading economic and air traffic growth Economy growth 4.1% GDP growth* A DIVERSE AND VERY DYNAMIC REGION Advanced and emerging economies (39 countries) Above the 2.8% World yearly average More than 4.1bn people (54% of the World population) with the heavyweights China and India close to 1.4bn people each. Traffic China and India expected to become number 1 and 3 global economies over the next 20 years. 5.4% traffic growth* Private consumption from growing Middle Class (from 2bn people today to 3.3bn by 5.8% Intra-regional & Domestic 2038) expected to be one of the main drivers of future air traffic growth. 4.6% Inter-regional Tourism expected to continue to develop strongly (2 nd most visited region after Europe). Asia-Pacific real GDP is expected to grow at +4.1% p.a. by 2038 (above the +2.8% Fleet World yearly average). 16,540 new deliveries** THE REGION N°1 FOR AIR TRANSPORT China, India and other Asia-Pacific emerging markets are the main engines of air 7,440 aircraft in service beginning 2019 transport growth. 20,010 aircraft in service in 2038 Strong penetration of LCCs (25% of domestic and intra-regional markets). Air freight plays a crucial role in Asia-Pacific. * 2018-2038 CAGR ** cumulative 20 years deliveries Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Key insights 8
Asia-Pacific – Key insights Challenges Economy 4.1% GDP growth* MACRO-ECONOMICS Transition to consumption and services driven economy Above the 2.8% World yearly average Dependence on China which accounted for 62% of the 2000-2018 Asia- Pacific’s total economic growth Traffic Urbanisation and environmental sustainability Political stability 5.4% traffic growth* 5.8% Intra-regional & Domestic 4.6% Inter-regional AIR TRAVEL Regional integration and market deregulation Fleet Air transport profitability in a very competitive environment 16,540 new deliveries** Airport and Air Traffic Management (ATM) congestion 7,440 aircraft in service beginning 2019 Pilot and technician availability 20,010 aircraft in service in 2038 * 2018-2038 CAGR ** cumulative 20 years deliveries Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Key insights 9
In 2018, there were ~0.38 trips per capita for Asia-Pacific countries 2018 trips per capita 10 Indonesia 0.50 trips per capita Asia-Pacific Other 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Bubble size proportional to population Japan 1.22 trips per capita 0,1 China 0.43 trips per capita India 0.12 trips per capita 0,01 2018 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity) Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country Socio & Macro economy 10
By 2038, Asia-Pacific trips per capita will be multiplied by 2.5 (~0.94) 2038 trips per capita 10 Asia-Pacific Japan Other 2.12 trips per capita 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Bubble size proportional to population China 1.40 trips per capita 0,1 Indonesia 1.56 trips per capita India 0.48 trips per capita 0,01 2038 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity) Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country Socio & Macro economy 11
71% of additional traffic in 2038 is driven by Domestic markets Traffic from/to/within Asia-Pacific forecast to multiply by 3.1 by 2038 O&D passengers on TOP20 country-pairs from/to/within Asia-Pacific (millions) x3.3 20 Domestic PRC Domestic India x4.8 19 Domestic Indonesia x3.7 18 Domestic Japan x1.3 17 Domestic Vietnam x 4.4 16 Domestic Philippines x3.9 15 Domestic Australia x1.9 Domestic Thailand 14 Domestic Malaysia 13 x2.7 PRC - Thailand 12 x3.3 PRC - South Korea x3.5 11 PRC - Japan x3.2 10 PRC - Taiwan x2.9 9 India - UAE x3.3 8 Japan - South Korea x3.8 Domestic South Korea 7 PRC - USA x2.3 6 Indonesia - Malaysia x1.5 5 Japan - Taiwan x3.3 4 PRC - Malaysia x3.1 2018 3 x2.4 2 2038 x3.7 1 0 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 Source: Airbus GMF 2019 Millions Traffic forecast 12
Seats 4700 nm Full market Up to 244 seats coverage 200 A321neo/LR/XLR 3450 nm Up to 194 seats Our Family covers A320neo 100% of the single- aisle market 3350 nm 150 141 seats A319neo From 100 to 244 A220-300 3700 nm 3400 nm seats 140 seats 116 seats A220-100 Up to 4,700nm 100 Most capable aircraft Typical 2-class layout Range capability JAR3% - 200nm alternate
Asia-Pacific O&D traffic expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years • O&D traffic from/to/within Asia-Pacific forecast to grow at 5.8% per year O&D traffic forecast – 2018-2038 CAGR Domestic Asia-Pacific CIS 6.0% 4.3% Europe 4.4% North America Domestic & Middle East Intra-Asia-Pacific 4.3% Intra-regional 6.4% 5.7% 5.9% Africa Asia-Pacific - Rest of 6.9% Latin America World & the Caribbean 5.1% 5.2% Total 5.8% Source: Airbus GMF 2019 14 Traffic forecast
Demand for some 16,540 new aircraft in Asia-Pacific Aircraft demand is split between growth (76%) and replacement (24%) Number of aircraft 25.000 20,010 20.000 15.000 12.570 Growth 16.540 New deliveries 10.000 7,440 Replace 3.970 5.000 7.440 Stay 3.470 0 Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2019 15 Fleet forecast
Global demand for 16,540 new passenger & freighter aircraft 12,760 aircraft 2,270 aircraft 1,510 aircraft 9% 78% share of total new del. 13% share of total new del. share of total new del /300 Source: Airbus GMF 2019 15 Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
Services market is forecast to reach $1.8tn in Asia-Pacific Services demand forecast SERVICES VALUE $1.8tn NEW PILOTS 223,210 NEW TECHS 259,690 41% 37% 41% of global of total of global demand market value demand SERVICES MARKET PILOTS TECHNICIANS 17
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