Cities, Airports & Aircraft 2019-2038 Ye TIAN (Yanni) Airbus - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ye TIAN (Yanni) Airbus Marketing Asia

Asia Pacific Market Forecast

Cities, Airports & Aircraft

2019-2038

2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year

Note: IATA forecast as of June 2019 Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

7.4%

RPK growth

5.0%

RPK growth

2018 2019

3.2%

GDP growth

2.7%

GDP growth

+280

million passengers

+200

million passengers

81.9%

Record Load factor

82.1%

Record Load factor

9th

year of solid airline profitability

10th

year of solid airline profitability

2

• 150

150 300 450 600 750 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Billions

10 years of strong growth and solid profitability

3

World annual added traffic (billion RPKs)

* IATA Forecast, June 2019 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019

9/11 Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis SARS Financial Crisis

+600 billion RPKs

2019 2018

$292 bn

profit

$269 bn

Profit*

4 Source: UN Population, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019

Drivers for Growth

Urbanisation

• 2000:

47%

• f World population in urban areas
• 2018:

55%

Wealth

• 2000:

~900 million emerging countries Middle-Class

• 2018:

2.7 billion

Liberalisation

• On average

700 net routes

added each year since 2000

The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity

5 Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus GMF 2019

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2018 1998 50 100 150 200 2018 1998 0% 50% 100% 2018 1998 100 200 300 400 2018 1998

+2

hours/day Daily Utilisation

+18

seats/flight Average Seats per Flight

+13pp

Load Factor

160 178 69% 82%

+40%

RPK (m) per a/c

300m 415m 8.4 10.7

Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO2 reduction

6

Fuel consumption & CO2 emissions Base 100 in 1990 based on Kilograms per RPK (avg.)

Source: IATA, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

• 53%

2018 vs. 1990

Typical 3-class configurations shown *Previous generation competitors: 767 and 777

25% 25% less fuel than previous generation* 4 optimally sized long-haul aircraft Same Same pilot and passenger experience New generation twin-aisle Family

400 350 300 Seating Capacity

A350XWB-1000 A350XWB-900 A330-900neo A330-800neo

Leading economic and air traffic growth growth

8 Key insights

Asia-Pacific – Key Drivers

A DIVERSE AND VERY DYNAMIC REGION

Economy

4.1% GDP growth*

Above the 2.8% World yearly average

THE REGION N°1 FOR AIR TRANSPORT

• China, India and other Asia-Pacific emerging markets are the main engines of air

transport growth.

• Strong penetration of LCCs (25% of domestic and intra-regional markets).
• Air freight plays a crucial role in Asia-Pacific.

Traffic

5.4% traffic growth*

5.8% Intra-regional & Domestic 4.6% Inter-regional

Fleet

16,540 new deliveries**

7,440 aircraft in service beginning 2019 20,010 aircraft in service in 2038

* 2018-2038 CAGR ** cumulative 20 years deliveries Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

• Advanced and emerging economies (39 countries)
• More than 4.1bn people (54% of the World population) with the heavyweights China

and India close to 1.4bn people each.

• China and India expected to become number 1 and 3 global economies over the next

20 years.

• Private consumption from growing Middle Class (from 2bn people today to 3.3bn by

2038) expected to be one of the main drivers of future air traffic growth.

• Tourism expected to continue to develop strongly (2nd most visited region after

Europe).

• Asia-Pacific real GDP is expected to grow at +4.1% p.a. by 2038 (above the +2.8%

World yearly average).

Challenges

9 Key insights

Asia-Pacific – Key insights Economy

4.1% GDP growth*

Above the 2.8% World yearly average

MACRO-ECONOMICS

• Transition to consumption and services driven economy
• Dependence on China which accounted for 62% of the 2000-2018 Asia-Pacific’s total

economic growth

• Urbanisation and environmental sustainability
• Political stability

AIR TRAVEL

• Regional integration and market deregulation
• Air transport profitability in a very competitive environment
• Airport and Air Traffic Management (ATM) congestion
• Pilot and technician availability

Traffic

5.4% traffic growth*

5.8% Intra-regional & Domestic 4.6% Inter-regional

Fleet

16,540 new deliveries**

7,440 aircraft in service beginning 2019 20,010 aircraft in service in 2038

* 2018-2038 CAGR ** cumulative 20 years deliveries Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

10

0,01 0,1 1 10 20 40 60 80 100

Socio & Macro economy

Other Asia-Pacific

Bubble size proportional to population

2018 trips per capita 2018 real GDP per capita

(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

In 2018, there were ~0.38 trips per capita for Asia-Pacific countries

India

0.12 trips per capita

China

0.43 trips per capita

Indonesia

0.50 trips per capita Japan

1.22 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

11

0,01 0,1 1 10 20 40 60 80 100

Socio & Macro economy

Other Asia-Pacific

Bubble size proportional to population

2038 trips per capita 2038 real GDP per capita

(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

By 2038, Asia-Pacific trips per capita will be multiplied by 2.5 (~0.94)

India

0.48 trips per capita

Indonesia

1.56 trips per capita Japan

2.12 trips per capita

China

1.40 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

Traffic from/to/within Asia-Pacific forecast to multiply by 3.1 by 2038

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

500 1.000 1.500 2.000

Millions

O&D passengers on TOP20 country-pairs from/to/within Asia-Pacific (millions)

12 Traffic forecast Source: Airbus GMF 2019

71% of additional traffic in 2038 is driven by Domestic markets

Domestic PRC Domestic India Domestic Indonesia Domestic Japan Domestic Vietnam Domestic Philippines Domestic Australia Domestic Thailand Domestic Malaysia PRC - Thailand PRC - South Korea PRC - Japan PRC - Taiwan India - UAE Japan - South Korea Domestic South Korea PRC - USA Indonesia - Malaysia Japan - Taiwan PRC - Malaysia

2018 2038

x1.5 x3.3 x3.1 x2.4 x3.7 x3.2 x2.9 x3.3 x3.8 x2.3 x2.7 x3.3 x3.5 x3.9 x 4.4 x1.9 x1.3 x3.7 x4.8 x3.3

Our Family covers 100% of the single- aisle market From 100 to 244 seats Up to 4,700nm

Full market coverage

Most capable aircraft Typical 2-class layout JAR3% - 200nm alternate

150 200 100

Range capability Seats

3350 nm 3450 nm 3700 nm 3400 nm Up to 244 seats 140 seats 4700 nm 116 seats 141 seats Up to 194 seats

A321neo/LR/XLR A320neo A319neo A220-100 A220-300

• O&D traffic from/to/within Asia-Pacific forecast to grow at 5.8% per

year

14 Traffic forecast

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

O&D traffic forecast – 2018-2038 CAGR

North America

4.3%

CIS

4.3%

Europe

4.4%

Middle East

6.4%

Africa

6.9%

Latin America & the Caribbean

5.2%

Asia-Pacific O&D traffic expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years

Domestic & Intra-regional

5.9%

Domestic Asia-Pacific

6.0%

Intra-Asia-Pacific

5.7%

Asia-Pacific - Rest of World

5.1%

Total

5.8%

Aircraft demand is split between growth (76%) and replacement (24%)

15

Fleet forecast

7.440 3.470 3.970 12.570 16.540

5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries

Stay Replace Growth

Number of aircraft

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Demand for some 16,540 new aircraft in Asia-Pacific

New deliveries

7,440 20,010

Global demand for 16,540 new passenger & freighter aircraft

12,760 aircraft 78% share of total new del. 2,270 aircraft 13% share of total new del. 1,510 aircraft 9%

share of total new del

Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t Source: Airbus GMF 2019 15

/300

17

Services demand forecast

Services market is forecast to reach $1.8tn in Asia-Pacific

SERVICES VALUE

$1.8tn

NEW PILOTS

223,210

NEW TECHS

259,690

TECHNICIANS

41%

• f global

demand

41%

• f global

demand

PILOTS

37%

• f total

market value

SERVICES MARKET

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