Chinas One-Child Policy Identifying the Economic, Social, and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

China’s One-Child Policy

Identifying the Economic, Social, and Demographic Consequences Jeffrey R. Bloem

Public Affairs 8331 - Economic Demography

April 3, 2017

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

Peng (2011)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ In the years following World War II (1945) and China’s

civil war (1950) a high birth rate was encouraged

◮ Mothers with many births were called “Hero Mothers” Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ In the years following World War II (1945) and China’s

civil war (1950) a high birth rate was encouraged

◮ Mothers with many births were called “Hero Mothers”

◮ This sparked China’s own “Baby Boom” and the birth rate

was at around 6 per mother

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ In the years following World War II (1945) and China’s

civil war (1950) a high birth rate was encouraged

◮ Mothers with many births were called “Hero Mothers”

◮ This sparked China’s own “Baby Boom” and the birth rate

was at around 6 per mother

◮ In the late 1950s, The Great Famine dramatically reduced

the birth rate

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ In the years following World War II (1945) and China’s

civil war (1950) a high birth rate was encouraged

◮ Mothers with many births were called “Hero Mothers”

◮ This sparked China’s own “Baby Boom” and the birth rate

was at around 6 per mother

◮ In the late 1950s, The Great Famine dramatically reduced

the birth rate

◮ However, after the famine ended the birth rate regained

pre-famine levels

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

Cameron and Meng (2014)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ Beginning in the 1960s fear that the country would soon

not be able to feed it’s population spread among the ruling elite

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ Beginning in the 1960s fear that the country would soon

not be able to feed it’s population spread among the ruling elite

◮ In 1973, the “later, longer, fewer” encouragement policy

was enacted

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ Beginning in the 1960s fear that the country would soon

not be able to feed it’s population spread among the ruling elite

◮ In 1973, the “later, longer, fewer” encouragement policy

was enacted

◮ During the 1970s the birth rate fell from over 5 to about 2

births per mother

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

History

◮ Beginning in the 1960s fear that the country would soon

not be able to feed it’s population spread among the ruling elite

◮ In 1973, the “later, longer, fewer” encouragement policy

was enacted

◮ During the 1970s the birth rate fell from over 5 to about 2

births per mother

◮ In 1978, the One-Child Policy (OCP) was officially enacted

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

◮ Memory of The Great Famine and fears of a “Malthusian

Collapse”

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

◮ Memory of The Great Famine and fears of a “Malthusian

Collapse”

◮ Explicit goals:

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

◮ Memory of The Great Famine and fears of a “Malthusian

Collapse”

◮ Explicit goals:

◮ $1,000 per capita GDP by 2000 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

◮ Memory of The Great Famine and fears of a “Malthusian

Collapse”

◮ Explicit goals:

◮ $1,000 per capita GDP by 2000 ◮ Total population of 1.2 Billion by 2000 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Why?

◮ Low agricultural productivity, economic slow down, and

isolation due to the Cold War

◮ Memory of The Great Famine and fears of a “Malthusian

Collapse”

◮ Explicit goals:

◮ $1,000 per capita GDP by 2000 ◮ Total population of 1.2 Billion by 2000 ◮ Population growth rate of zero by 2000 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Implementation

◮ Intended to cover the entire country

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Implementation

◮ Intended to cover the entire country ◮ In practice enforcement was less strict in rural areas

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Implementation

◮ Intended to cover the entire country ◮ In practice enforcement was less strict in rural areas ◮ Different rules for minority groups, often times leading to

less strict enforcement

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Implementation

◮ Intended to cover the entire country ◮ In practice enforcement was less strict in rural areas ◮ Different rules for minority groups, often times leading to

less strict enforcement

◮ Carrot: Financial rewards for families who obey the policy

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Implementation

◮ Intended to cover the entire country ◮ In practice enforcement was less strict in rural areas ◮ Different rules for minority groups, often times leading to

less strict enforcement

◮ Carrot: Financial rewards for families who obey the policy ◮ Stick: Fines and higher fees of child’s education and

healthcare for families who don’t obey the policy

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Chinese Government Claim

◮ 400 million births were prevented

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Chinese Government Claim

◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated?

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Chinese Government Claim

◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated?

◮ Simply extrapolated what the birth rate would have been if

it followed the trajectory of decline between 1950 and 1970

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Chinese Government Claim

◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated?

◮ Simply extrapolated what the birth rate would have been if

it followed the trajectory of decline between 1950 and 1970

◮ Predicted that the crude birth rate would be 29.7 per

thousand by 1990

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Chinese Government Claim

◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated?

◮ Simply extrapolated what the birth rate would have been if

it followed the trajectory of decline between 1950 and 1970

◮ Predicted that the crude birth rate would be 29.7 per

thousand by 1990

◮ The difference between the observed birth rate the and the

predicted birth rate yields ≈ 338 million births

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to

pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to

pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself

◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates

(Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to

pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself

◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates

(Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980

◮ By 2010, the model predicts that the fertility rate would be

at 1.5 births per woman

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

What is the correct counterfactual?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth

rate - beginning in 1970

◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to

pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself

◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates

(Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980

◮ By 2010, the model predicts that the fertility rate would be

at 1.5 births per woman

◮ This is what was actually observed! Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Birth rates of comparable countries

Wang et al. (2013)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society

◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society

◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one

child

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society

◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one

child

◮ This represents roughly 50 million families Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

So, what’s the problem?

Wang et al. (2013)

◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is

negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy?

◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society

◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one

child

◮ This represents roughly 50 million families ◮ This share is higher in urban areas (e.g. Shanghai and

Beijing with roughly 80%) than rural areas (e.g. Guizhou, Yunnan, and Tibet with roughly 20%)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Some stylized facts

◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting

for roughly a third of all families

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Some stylized facts

◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting

for roughly a third of all families

◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than

65

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Some stylized facts

◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting

for roughly a third of all families

◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than

65

◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9%

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Some stylized facts

◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting

for roughly a third of all families

◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than

65

◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9% ◮ Compared to US and Japan with 13% and 23%,

respectively, of their population older than 65

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Some stylized facts

◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting

for roughly a third of all families

◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than

65

◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9% ◮ Compared to US and Japan with 13% and 23%,

respectively, of their population older than 65

◮ Cause for concern: China is much lower individual income

than both the US and Japan

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Share of population over 65 and per capital GDP rank

Cameron and Meng (2014)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the

rural pension system

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the

rural pension system

◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing

responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the

rural pension system

◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing

responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents

◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the

rural pension system

◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing

responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents

◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas

◮ In urban areas aging has been slowed due to immigration

• f young workers

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Public Finance

◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for

the elderly

◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40%

• f the urban population

◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the

rural pension system

◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing

responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents

◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas

◮ In urban areas aging has been slowed due to immigration

• f young workers

◮ This makes the aging problem even more serious in rural

areas

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Geography of Aging, 65+

Peng (2011)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Geography of Aging, 0-14

Peng (2011)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Sex ratio by birth cohort

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The “Missing Girls” of China

Ebenstein (2010)

◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese

women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing”

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The “Missing Girls” of China

Ebenstein (2010)

◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese

women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing”

◮ Summary:

◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the

OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The “Missing Girls” of China

Ebenstein (2010)

◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese

women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing”

◮ Summary:

◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the

OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005)

◮ “This forced decline in fertility and rise in the male fraction

• f births appear to be causally linked”

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The “Missing Girls” of China

Ebenstein (2010)

◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese

women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing”

◮ Summary:

◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the

OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005)

◮ “This forced decline in fertility and rise in the male fraction

• f births appear to be causally linked”

◮ The OCP also impacted birth patterns - sons are preceded

by longer intervals than daughters

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Male births following female births

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

How many girls are missing?

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Geographical distribution of fines

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Rising sex ratio after 1990

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Are fertility regulations causing sex ratio changes?

Ebenstein (2010)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical

marriage ages between 20-30 million

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical

marriage ages between 20-30 million

◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal

implications:

◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more

women from abroad...)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical

marriage ages between 20-30 million

◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal

implications:

◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more

women from abroad...)

◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be

husbands

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical

marriage ages between 20-30 million

◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal

implications:

◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more

women from abroad...)

◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be

husbands

◮ Implications for foreign exchange reserves and the

macroeconomy

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical

marriage ages between 20-30 million

◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal

implications:

◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more

women from abroad...)

◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be

husbands

◮ Implications for foreign exchange reserves and the

macroeconomy

◮ The price of marriage - market distorted due to OCP Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on

quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves)

◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower

APGAR scores and birth weights

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on

quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves)

◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower

APGAR scores and birth weights

◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the

allocation of resources for each child

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on

quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves)

◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower

APGAR scores and birth weights

◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the

allocation of resources for each child

◮ Summary:

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on

quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves)

◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower

APGAR scores and birth weights

◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the

allocation of resources for each child

◮ Summary:

◮ Empirical studies using twinning for exogeneity may

underestimate the Q-Q trade-off

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

The Q-Q model

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity,

have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model

◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on

quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves)

◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower

APGAR scores and birth weights

◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the

allocation of resources for each child

◮ Summary:

◮ Empirical studies using twinning for exogeneity may

underestimate the Q-Q trade-off

◮ Despite evidence of a Q-Q trade-off, the impact of the OCP

• n human capital is still modest

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Identifying the Q-Q effect using first-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Estimate of exogenous increase in quantity on schooling

and health outcomes of first-birth twins and non-twins

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Identifying the Q-Q effect using first-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Estimate of exogenous increase in quantity on schooling

and health outcomes of first-birth twins and non-twins

◮ H1j = ηTj + δe1j + λa1j + ǫ1j

◮ H1j is the child quality indicator for any child of parity 1 in

family j.

◮ Tj = 1 if the child is in a household with a first-birth twin

pair

◮ e1j is a measure of birth endowment (birth weight) ◮ a1j is the age of the mother at the first birth ◮ ǫ1j is an error term Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Estimates using first-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in

families with first-birth twins

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in

families with first-birth twins

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Compare these impacts to...

◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in

Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Compare these impacts to...

◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in

Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years

◮ Schultz (2004) found that the Progresa program in Mexico

increased years of schooling by 0.66 years

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in

families with first-birth twins

◮ Compare these impacts to...

◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in

Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years

◮ Schultz (2004) found that the Progresa program in Mexico

increased years of schooling by 0.66 years

◮ Miguel and Kremer (2004) found in Kenya that provision of

a de-worming pill increased years of schooling by 0.14 years

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Identifying the Q-Q effect using second-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Estimate the effects of an additional child at the second

birth on both second-birth and first-birth children

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Identifying the Q-Q effect using second-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Estimate the effects of an additional child at the second

birth on both second-birth and first-birth children

◮ Hij = η0Tj+η1(Tj×Fij)+η2Fij+δ1e∗ 2j+δ2(e∗ 2j×Fij)+µj+ζij

◮ Hij is the quality of a child at parity i (1 or 2) in household

j

◮ Tj = 1 if the child is in a household with a second-birth

twin pair

◮ Fij = 1 if child i is a singleton first-born ◮ e∗

2j = the average birth weight of the second-birth child

(twins)

◮ µj is a family (mother) fixed effect ◮ ζij is a random error term Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Estimates using second-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among

second-birth twins

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among

second-birth twins

◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65

years for the twins

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among

second-birth twins

◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65

years for the twins

◮ The impacts of twinning at second pregnancy is less

negative on first-birth than on second-birth children

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among

second-birth twins

◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65

years for the twins

◮ The impacts of twinning at second pregnancy is less

negative on first-birth than on second-birth children

◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.23

years for the first child

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Estimates using second-birth twins

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force

participation could constrain China’s economy

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force

participation could constrain China’s economy

◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human

capital

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force

participation could constrain China’s economy

◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human

capital

◮ What was the impact of the OCP on human capital?

◮ Upper-bound estimates suggest that the OCP decreased

family size by a third of a child

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Discussion

Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009)

◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1

billion

◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force

participation could constrain China’s economy

◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human

capital

◮ What was the impact of the OCP on human capital?

◮ Upper-bound estimates suggest that the OCP decreased

family size by a third of a child

◮ Increased educational attainment by 4%, the probability of

attending college by 9%, school grades by 1%, and incidence

• f good or excellent health by 4%

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Consequences of not having siblings

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by

parents and by social interactions with peers

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Consequences of not having siblings

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by

parents and by social interactions with peers

◮ Psychologists have identified both positive and negative

impacts of being an only child

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Consequences of not having siblings

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by

parents and by social interactions with peers

◮ Psychologists have identified both positive and negative

impacts of being an only child

◮ Only children may be more confident and secure due to

more parental attention

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Consequences of not having siblings

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by

parents and by social interactions with peers

◮ Psychologists have identified both positive and negative

impacts of being an only child

◮ Only children may be more confident and secure due to

more parental attention

◮ Only children may be self-centered and less cooperative due

to less peer interaction

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Details

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Sample: 421 participants from the general population of

Beijing with parents of urban residency

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Details

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Sample: 421 participants from the general population of

Beijing with parents of urban residency

◮ Pre-OCP cohorts: people born in 1975 or 1978

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Details

Cameron et al. (2013)

◮ Sample: 421 participants from the general population of

Beijing with parents of urban residency

◮ Pre-OCP cohorts: people born in 1975 or 1978 ◮ Post-OCP cohorts: people born in 1980 or 1983

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Outcomes in economic games, unconditional means

Cameron et al. (2013)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Outcomes in economic games, ‘naive model’

Cameron et al. (2013)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Outcomes in economic games, IV estimation

Cameron et al. (2013)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Sex Ratio Imbalance

Li et al. (2011)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy

Background

• Pop. Size
• Pop. Aging

Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings

Hepatitis B and “Missing Women”

Oster (2005)

Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy