Chance Dan Hoek PHI 371 Foundations of Probability and Decision - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Chance Dan Hoek PHI 371 Foundations of Probability and Decision Theory Princeton April 2020 Examples Gambling Coins, Dice, Roulette wheels, Card Draws, Balls from An Urn What is the chance of throwing 7 with two dice?

Chance Dan Hoek — PHI 371 Foundations of Probability and Decision Theory — Princeton — April 2020
Examples • Gambling Coins, Dice, Roulette wheels, Card Draws, Balls from An Urn “What is the chance of throwing 7 with two dice?” • Weather “What is the Chance of rain tomorrow?” • Sports matches “What is the chance the Patriots will beat the Rams?” • Physics “What is the chance this Uranium atom will decay in the next hour?”
Nature of Chance • What is chance? • Frequentism • Subjectivism • Primitivism • Are there di ff erent kinds of chance?
Chance and Frequency • Chances predict future frequencies. • Observed frequencies can be used to measure / approximate the chances. • Reference Class problem • One-o ff Probabilities
Chance and Determinism • Determinism : “The total state of the universe + the laws of nature, determine the state of the universe at all later times” • Are chances compatible with determinism? • Chance in the Casino • Chance in Statistical Mechanics • Chance in Biology • Chance in Geology
Chance and Credence • What is the relationship between chances and rational credences? • “Rational credence should equal the known chances” • The Principal Principle • What justifies PP? • What is “admissible” evidence?
Michael Strevens: Chance and Symmetry
David Albert: Chance in Quantum Mechanics

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