Challenges for Global Challenges for Global Feed Industries Feed - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Challenges for Global Feed Industries Challenges for Global Feed Industries

• Dr. Andreas Kocher,

Technical Manager, Alltech Australia

• Dr. Andreas Kocher,

Technical Manager, Alltech Australia Poultry in the 21st Century Bangkok, 5 November 2007 Poultry in the 21st Century Bangkok, 5 November 2007

Industry Survey Indicated (Jan ’07) Industry Survey Indicated (Jan ’07)

• Raw material prices
• By-product utilization
• Mycotoxins
• Production of quality progeny

As the 4 major issues faced related to;

• Maximizing physical performance
• Bottom line profitability
• Food Safety
• Traceability
• Raw material prices
• By-product utilization
• Mycotoxins
• Production of quality progeny

As the 4 major issues faced related to;

• Maximizing physical performance
• Bottom line profitability
• Food Safety
• Traceability

Snapshot of

• ur

industry

Snapshot of

• ur

industry

• Feed: 700 million

tons globally

• Critical part of the

food chain

• $130 billion
• Growing 2-3%

per year

• Global grains are limited:

2,000 million tons

• Feed: 700 million

tons globally

• Critical part of the

food chain

• $130 billion
• Growing 2-3%

per year

• Global grains are limited:

2,000 million tons

The relationship between meat consumption and per capita income in 2002

Income and population growth are the key drivers behind increased food consumption… Income and population growth are the key drivers behind increased food consumption…

Expected population and income growth, selected countries

Germany France Italy US Brazil Mexico China India Russia Japan

• 2.0%
• 1.5%
• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Expected Income Growth 2005/10 (%) Annual Population Growth 2005/10

Expected population and income growth, selected countries

Germany France Italy US Brazil Mexico China India Russia Japan

• 2.0%
• 1.5%
• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Expected Income Growth 2005/10 (%) Annual Population Growth 2005/10

Rabobank analysis base on UN-Population department and IMF data Rabobank analysis base on UN-Population department and IMF data

2030 - China’s requirements for meat… 2030 - China’s requirements for meat…

*FCR = 3.5

Population: 1.5 billion Population: 1.5 billion Meat per person: 70 kilos Meat per person: 70 kilos

320 million more tons of feed For China alone!! 320 million more tons of feed For China alone!!

Global production of pig and poultry meat 2050*

• Raw material consequences:

1706 488 375 2030 2082 1050 x 3.54 (av FCR) (MT) 595 300 Liveweight x 1-3 killing out % (MT) 465 229 Global Meat Production (MT) 2050 2000

An increased need of 1032 MT raw material

*excludes Dairy

The 2050 impact of Asia with The 2050 impact of Asia with

~66% world’s population ~236,000,000T more meat consumed ~1,032,000,000T more raw materials for pig and poultry feed

?What raw materials? ?What % of Asia’s meat requirement be produced in Asia?

~66% world’s population ~236,000,000T more meat consumed ~1,032,000,000T more raw materials for pig and poultry feed

?What raw materials? ?What % of Asia’s meat requirement be produced in Asia?

THE FUTURE for the poultry industry

• Grain: Food/Feed/Fuel?
• Sustainability?
• Diseases?
• Traceability?

State of the Union Address State of the Union Address

The new mandate:

• Cut US gasoline usage by

20% in next 10 years (substitute with ethanol)

• Target: 35 B gal. of alcohol

by 2017

• Corn required 350M Tons
• DDGs produced 116 M

Tons

• If all the plants have the

same size, this means 400 more alcohol plants The new mandate:

• Cut US gasoline usage by

20% in next 10 years (substitute with ethanol)

• Target: 35 B gal. of alcohol

by 2017

• Corn required 350M Tons
• DDGs produced 116 M

Tons

• If all the plants have the

same size, this means 400 more alcohol plants

Dateline January 23, 2007 Dateline January 23, 2007 “This is 5 times the current target.” George W. Bush, 2007 “This is 5 times the current target.” George W. Bush, 2007

Feedstuffs, January 22, 2007

Poultry industry feels ethanol squeeze Poultry industry feels ethanol squeeze

• Higher feed costs

hitting bottom lines in poultry industry: going up 18% due to corn prices

• The projected increase

cost for US chicken & Turkey – U$ 2 Billion

• The projected increase

cost for the egg industry – U$ 750M

• The projected increase

globally – U$ 9 Billion

Cereal and Starch: The world’s current supplies 2000 million tons Cereal and Starch: The world’s current supplies 2000 million tons

Corn (Maize) Wheat Barley Rice 700 million tons 620 million tons 137 million tons 400 million tons USA - 300 EU- 122 EU- 53 China- 127 China - 140 China- 97 Russia- 16 India- 87 EU- 131 India- 72 Canada- 13 Indonesia-36 Brazil- 43 USA- 57 Australia- 10 Vietnam- 22 India- 33 Russia- 47 Ukraine- 9 Bangladesh- 28 Mexico- 26 Canada- 17 Turkey- 8 Thailand- 18 Canada- 26 Australia- 24 Ukraine- 18 Ukraine- 1 Argentina- 18 Turkey- 18 Corn (Maize) Wheat Barley Rice 700 million tons 620 million tons 137 million tons 400 million tons USA - 300 EU- 122 EU- 53 China- 127 China - 140 China- 97 Russia- 16 India- 87 EU- 131 India- 72 Canada- 13 Indonesia-36 Brazil- 43 USA- 57 Australia- 10 Vietnam- 22 India- 33 Russia- 47 Ukraine- 9 Bangladesh- 28 Mexico- 26 Canada- 17 Turkey- 8 Thailand- 18 Canada- 26 Australia- 24 Ukraine- 18 Ukraine- 1 Argentina- 18 Turkey- 18

USDA-NASS 10-12-07

U.S. Corn Production

9.50 11.8 11.1 8.97 9.43 9.21 9.76 9.92 10.09 10.5 13.3 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 Billion Bushels

USDA-NASS 10-12-07

U.S. Soybean Production

2.74 2.76 2.45 2.65 2.69 2.76 2.89 3.12 3.06 3.19 2.60 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 Billion Bushels

Where are we going? Where are we going? Food Feed Fuel Food Feed Fuel

The impact of a country policy change The impact of a country policy change

Back to where the livestock industry started: By-product utilization Back to where the livestock industry started: By-product utilization

• Vegetable offals
• Oilseed Meals
• Starch/Distilling
• Novel plant materials/by-products?
• Vegetable offals
• Oilseed Meals
• Starch/Distilling
• Novel plant materials/by-products?

Wheat

Rice Soya Rapeseed Coconut Palm Corn (DDGS) Cassava residue? Sweet potato Wheat/sorghum

• 110 MT
• 60 MT

300 MT

• 30 MT

=

(Estimated volumes)

What are the major challenges

Mycotoxins Variability

• 120.0

120.0 50.0 50.0 100 100

Vomitoxin Vomitoxin

70.0 70.0 20.0 20.0 75 75

Fumonisin Fumonisin

87.5 87.5 38.5 38.5 100 100

Zearalenone Zearalenone

23.8 23.8 16.2 16.2 60 60

T T-

• 2 toxin

2 toxin

18.1 18.1 6.5 6.5 100 100

Ochratoxin Ochratoxin

23.6 23.6 9.5 9.5 100 100

Aflatoxin Aflatoxin

Maximum, ppb Maximum, ppb Average, ppb Average, ppb % Positive % Positive

Mycotoxin

190 190 120 120 100 100

Vomitoxin Vomitoxin

250 250 80 80 100 100

Fumonisin Fumonisin

82.1 82.1 56.0 56.0 100 100

Zearalenone Zearalenone

70.1 70.1 41.5 41.5 100 100

T T-

• 2 toxin

2 toxin

33.2 33.2 20.8 20.8 100 100

Ochratoxin Ochratoxin

52.7 52.7 28.8 28.8 100 100

Aflatoxin Aflatoxin

Maximum Maximum ppb ppb Average Average ppb ppb % % Positive Positive

Mycotoxin

Mycotoxins in Copra Meal? Mycotoxins in Copra Meal?

Mycotoxins in Rice Bran? Mycotoxins in Rice Bran?

140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 100 100

Vomitoxin Vomitoxin

460.0 460.0 130.0 130.0 83.3 83.3

Fumonisin Fumonisin

591.7 591.7 112.7 112.7 100 100

Zearalenone Zearalenone

252.1 252.1 68.3 68.3 100 100

T T-

• 2 toxin

2 toxin

170.1 170.1 29.0 29.0 100 100

Ochratoxin Ochratoxin

64.6 64.6 15.8 15.8 100 100

Aflatoxin Aflatoxin Maximum, Maximum, ppb ppb Average, Average, ppb ppb % Positive % Positive Mycotoxin

Trends to consider

• Decrease the dietary energy

and nutrient level

• Incur in higher cost of

production of their diets

• y = -0,0753x + 4,4163

R2 = 0,7536 3,9000 3,9500 4,0000 4,0500 4,1000 4,1500 4,2000 4,2500 4,3000 4,3500 4,4000 3.050 3.120 3.190 3.260 CR 23 a 44d Linear (CR 23 a 44d) ME (kcall/kg) y = 0,0304x + 1,9436 R2 = 0,9208 1,9000 1,9200 1,9400 1,9600 1,9800 2,0000 2,0200 2,0400 2,0600 2,0800 3.050 3.120 3.190 3.260 GPD 23 a 44d Linear (GPD 23 a 44d)

• ME (kcal/kg)

Penz (unpublished data)

How important is the energy for broilers?

y = -0,0697x + 2,2721 R2 = 0,9657 1,8500 1,9000 1,9500 2,0000 2,0500 2,1000 2,1500 2,2000 2,2500 3.050 3.120 3.190 3.260 CA 23 44d Linear (CA 23 44d)

• ME (kcal/kg)

Solutions? Unlock nutrients by growing a microbe on raw material we are breaking down cell walls Solutions? Unlock nutrients by growing a microbe on raw material we are breaking down cell walls

59% 11% 30%

Carbohydrases Protease Phytase

33% 28% 39%

Carbohydrases Protease Phytase

DDGS Wheat bran

Issues for Consideration Issues for Consideration

• Ethanol production will continue to utilize corn/oilseeds until

more cellulose based distilleries become operational.

• Corn/oilseed meal prices remain firm due to demand.
• A “black hole” by 2050 equivalent to 1.1 billion tonnes of raw

material for animal feed, 75% in Asia (assuming local meat production).

• The future is based on fibre utilization
• Solid State Fermentation derived enzymes
• Biorefinery by-products
• Look to utilize more “alternative raw materials”.

• 1.Be more efficient
• Reduce costs
• Use alternative raw materials
• 2. Be environmental conscientious
• 3. Be receptive to the consumer
• 4. Use the technologies faster
• 5. Solve the issues now

1.Be more efficient

• Reduce costs
• Use alternative raw materials
• 2. Be environmental conscientious
• 3. Be receptive to the consumer
• 4. Use the technologies faster
• 5. Solve the issues now

Global Feed Issues, Re-imagining of Poultry Feeding Global Feed Issues, Re-imagining of Poultry Feeding

Thank you Thank you