causal mechanisms and process tracing
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Causal Mechanisms and Process Tracing Department of Government - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Causal Mechanisms and Process Tracing Department of Government London School of Economics and Political Science Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1 Review 2 Mechanisms 3 Process Tracing Review Mechanisms

  1. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Causal Mechanisms and Process Tracing Department of Government London School of Economics and Political Science

  2. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1 Review 2 Mechanisms 3 Process Tracing

  3. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1 Review 2 Mechanisms 3 Process Tracing

  4. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Review Case Studies Many uses of case studies In case comparisons (last week), we focused on scoring cases on variables to test theories between cases

  5. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Theory testing involves: Between-case comparisons, or Across-time comparisons, or Between-case & across-time comparisons Within-case comparisons at a lower level of analysis

  6. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Theory testing involves: Between-case comparisons, or Across-time comparisons , or Between-case & across-time comparisons Within-case comparisons at a lower level of analysis

  7. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing

  8. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1 Review 2 Mechanisms 3 Process Tracing

  9. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Four (or five) principles of causality 1 1 Correlation 2 Nonconfounding 3 Direction (“temporal precedence”) 4 Mechanism 5 (Appropriate level of analysis) 1 From Kellstedt and Whitten

  10. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing D Y

  11. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing A D Y

  12. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing A D Y B

  13. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D Y B

  14. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z Confounding A D Y B

  15. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D Y B

  16. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Four (or five) principles of causality 1 1 Correlation 2 Nonconfounding 3 Direction (“temporal precedence”) 4 Mechanism 5 (Appropriate level of analysis) 1 From Kellstedt and Whitten

  17. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Four (or five) principles of causality 1 1 Correlation 2 Nonconfounding 3 Direction (“temporal precedence”) 4 Mechanism 5 (Appropriate level of analysis) 1 From Kellstedt and Whitten

  18. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Mediators/Mechanisms Definition: “the generative mechanism through which the focal independent variable is able to influence the dependent variable of interest” 2 Dropping the tautology, “the pathway(s) or process(es) by which an effect is produced” Allows us to distinguish: Direct effects Indirect effects 2 p. 1173 from Baron, R.M., and Kenny, D.A. 1986. “The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51(6): 1173–1182.

  19. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D Y B

  20. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D M Y B

  21. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D M Y B

  22. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D M Y B

  23. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Z A D M Y B

  24. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Two Uses of Studying Mechanisms 1 Determine how a causal effect comes about 2 Establish seemingly disconnected cause and outcome through a chain of smaller causal effects

  25. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1. The how of the why A causal effect is an explanation of why something occurs Mechanisms explain how that effect occurs

  26. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Example: Smoking We know that smoking kills. How does this effect occur? Source: c � Wellcome Trust

  27. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 2. Sum of small effects We may be able to establish a number of small linkages The product (multiplication) of these effects is the total effect

  28. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 2. Sum of small effects We may be able to establish a number of small linkages The product (multiplication) of these effects is the total effect Two ways to conceptualize this: Deterministic causality Probabilistic causality

  29. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Pearl’s Front Door Criterion Same rules for understanding mechanisms as causes Y generally D M Mechanisms must be: exhaustive isolated

  30. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Pearl’s Front Door Criterion Same rules for understanding M2 mechanisms as causes Y generally D Mechanisms must be: M1 exhaustive isolated

  31. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Pearl’s Front Door Criterion M2 Same rules for understanding M1 Y mechanisms as causes D generally Mechanisms must be: exhaustive M3 isolated

  32. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Pearl’s Front Door Criterion Same rules for Z understanding M2 mechanisms as causes generally Y Mechanisms must be: D M1 exhaustive isolated

  33. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Pearl’s Front Door Criterion Same rules for understanding M2 mechanisms as causes generally Y D Mechanisms must be: exhaustive isolated

  34. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing

  35. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Do We Care About Mechanisms? Write for two minutes Is understanding a mechanism necessary for causal inference? When should we be satisfied that we have “bottomed out” a causal process?

  36. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing 1 Review 2 Mechanisms 3 Process Tracing

  37. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Process Tracing Definition: “analysis of processes of change that seeks to uncover causal mechanisms and causal sequences” 3 Single-case method Focused on gathering CPOs Sequence of counterfactuals 3 p.300 from Brady, H.E., and Collier, D. 2004. Rethinking Social Inquiry . Rowman & Littlefield.

  38. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Causal Process Observations Definition: “An insight or piece of data that provides information about the context, process, or mechanism, and that contributes distinctive leverage in causal inference” 4 Might be used to: Inductively generate hypotheses Deductively test a chain of causal relationships 4 Brady and Collier 2004, p.277

  39. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Inductive Process Tracing Broad search for sequential steps necessary for an event to occur No a priori expectations to test Analogous to Source: Public Domain detective work

  40. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Deductive Process Tracing Sequence of within-case hypothesis tests Theory or extant evidence guide chosen comparisons May iterate if there is no or very weak evidence for one’s hypothesis(es)

  41. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Four Process Tracing Tests 5 Broadly consistent with Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing. 1 Straw-in-the-wind test 2 Hoop test 3 Smoking gun test 4 Doubly decisive test 5 Note: I am not a fan of this typology.

  42. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Major Caveat: Uncertainty Our uncertainty is a function of n

  43. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Major Caveat: Uncertainty Our uncertainty is a function of n Process-tracing is a single-case design Reduce uncertainty by finding within-case variation Accept only high certainty about specific case

  44. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Major Caveat: Uncertainty Our uncertainty is a function of n Process-tracing is a single-case design Reduce uncertainty by finding within-case variation Accept only high certainty about specific case Can we gather within-case DSOs at a lower level of analysis to better understand causality?

  45. Review Mechanisms Process Tracing Major Caveat: Uncertainty Our uncertainty is a function of n Process-tracing is a single-case design Reduce uncertainty by finding within-case variation Accept only high certainty about specific case Can we gather within-case DSOs at a lower level of analysis to better understand causality? Local-level geographical variation Across-time variation

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