Category Behavioural aspects and the role of citizens and local authorities in energy modelling
Funded by 23 Optimum structure of centralized and decentralized generation in the German energy system with enhanced �odelli�g of a�tors’ i�vest�e�t �ehaviour Transport Supply Energy Supply Industry Households Other Consumers Mohammad Ahanchian
Reinforcement Learning in Local Energy 24 Markets The multi-agent based model demonstrates the application of reinforcement learning (a type of machine learning) for intelligent agent strategy for trading in the local energy market (LEM) supported by Demand Response. The model setup: • 100 household agents 45 Agents with PV installation (Prosumers) 10 Agents with mCHP installation (Prosumers) 45 Agents with generation units (Consumers) • Merit order model market mechanism • Price based Demand Response • Intelligent Agent strategy through modified Erev-Roth algorithm • Sensitivity analysis Increasing PV installation from 5 kWp to 25 kWp Figure: Simulation Setup Increasing peak shaving in DR from 0% to 50% Regulatory Upper Limit Lower Limit (c€/kWh) (c€/kWh) Result sneak-peek: Scenarios PV mCHP Increase DR % → increase by 25-50% Local Sufficiency (%): → increase by 6-30% Increase PV Public Network 29.86 36.74 35.81 Increase DR% → no effect Microgrid 29.86 25.01 24.09 Market Closing Price: → increase by 5c €/kWh Increase PV Favorable 29.86 16.83 15.90 Regulation Increase DR% → decrease by 50% Annual Peak Demand: → no effect Increase PV Figure: Upper and lower bounds of trading window (Regulatory scenarios) 1 Samrat Bose (bose@eifer.org) | 08.10.2019
25 ODEN — URBAN N BUILDI DING NG ENERGY MODEL AND DASHBOARD D FOR SWEDISH CITIES bit.do/oden
Local Energy Sharing Considering Different Technologies, 26 Individual Preferences, and Contributions FRESH:COM “ F ai R E nergy SH aring in local COM munities “ • Linear optimization model • Local Energy Community (EC): • Members are Consumer, Producer, or Prosumer • Participants have different reasons to join an EC ( economic or ecologic aspects ) • Fully democratic participation: voluntary participation, willingness-to-pay for renewable energy • Renewable energy technologies: PV and battery storage • Peer-to-peer trading via public grid • Grid topology: IEEE 33 Bus Distribution Network • Objective function: Maximizing the community's Theresia Perger, TU Wien perger@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
27 Changes in the energy metabolic pattern of Europe and China 2000-2016 Raúl Velasco-Fernández and Mario Giampietro • Characterization of changes in the performance of the economy Energy consumption per hour of work vs hours p.c. in main sectors in biophysical terms using MuSIASEM • Multi-scale integrated analysis of the energy metabolic pattern • Alternative economic accounting based on energetics • Considering complexity implications for policy advice • Opening black-boxes and handling impredicativity Human activity in hours per capita in main sectors This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 689669.
Category: Energy and climate strategy, targets and scenarios
Methodology for the characterization and impact 28 assessment of energy scenarios at a city level Iñigo Muñoz; Patxi Hernández; Eneko Arrizabalaga; Nekane Hermoso; Juan Pedrero S t e p 2 : C i t y E n e r g y S c e n a r i o s The model represents how energy usage in each sector could evolve S t e p 1 : C i t y E n e r g y C h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n resulting in a combination of different pathways that the city can face • Top-down real consumption data supplied by the city is disaggregated through integrating bottom-up approaches. 2,00 • ENERKAD tool is used to disaggregate the energy consumed in the city’s building stock. Mton CO2eq 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Business as Usual Alternative scenario nº1 Alternative scenario nº2 S t e p 3 : C i t y S c e n a r i o s A s s e s s m e n t By weighting their impacts, the scenarios are prioritized and the city can identify the one that best suits its objectives, being this the first step for the elaboration of an energy action plan. Contact Information: Energy Modelling Platform for Europe 2019 EMP-E 2019 Modelling the Implementation of A Clean Planet for All Strategy Iñigo Muñoz 1 Tel.: +34 664 119 538 inigo.munoz@tecnalia.com
29 ADDRESSING RISING ENERGY NEEDS OF MEGACITIES IN A SUSTAINABLE WAY – CASE STUDY OF GREATER CAIRO S. Abd Alla*, S.G. Simoes, V. Bianco (*) contact author: sara.abd.alla@edu.unige.it Si� �odelled socio-eco�o�ic & CO 2 �itigatio� sce�arios Fi�al e�erg� co�su�ptio� �FEC� Mai� Co�clusio�s I�p�o�i�g �uality of life �ill lead to a BAU INFA INFB BAUc INFAc INFBc �e�essa�y i���ease i� e�e�gy �o�su�ptio� that if satisfied �ith �o�- GDP, GDP, I�te��ediate As BAU + As INFA + As INFB + INFBc �e�e�a�le e�e�gy �RES� sou��es �ill �o�st�u�tio� �o�st�u�tio� GDP, CO� CO� CO� al�ost dou�le the CO � e�issio�s pe� a�d �o�ility a�d �o�ility �o�st�u�tio� e�issio�s e�issio�s e�issio�s �apita �INFA�. g�o� as g�o� as i� a�d �o�ility �itigatio� �itigatio� �itigatio� ����-����; Cai�o Visio�; g�o�th; �y �ap i� �ap i� �ap i� RES a�e �e�essa�y fo� the sustai�a�le �o �ha�ges �y ����/���� ����/���� ���� of ���� of ���� of i� % i�fo��al �7%/��% 7%/�7% ��% ��% ��% u��a� e�e�gy t�a�sitio� of �ega�ities settle�e�ts i�ha�. i�ha�. �elo� �elo� �elo� �BAU�/INFA�/INFB��. i�fo��al settl. i�fo��al settl. ���� ���� ���� �elo�ated �elo�ated U��a� e�e�gy syste� �odelli�g allo�s �ega�ities to assess the de�elop�e�t g�o�th a�d to d�a� sustai�a�le path�ays to �eet the �apidly i���easi�g e�e�gy �eeds. Depe�di�g o� the so�io-e�o�o�i� path�ay & CO � �itigatio� a��itio�, FEC Mai� �halle�ges a�e a��ess to data a�d �a� g�o� ���� f�o� ���� �alues: ��-7% i� de�elopi�g �o�ust s�e�a�ios o� BAU/�, �9�-�9�% i� INFA/� o� 9�-��% i� de�og�aphy, e�o�o�i� g�o�th a�d INFB/�. lifestyle �ha�ges.
Kategorie 3: Energy and climate strategy, targets and scenarios Using a myopic energy system model to analyse EU memeber states‘ diverging energy policies 30 Max Fydrich
Collecting Silences Silences What market accounting governance needs to be in place to assign value to reductions of intangible commodities? Noise Systems of demand and supply to align market accounting governance and organizational activity with societal needs and planetary boundaries. Such system are evident in energy demand reduction, demand-side response and flexibility markets. On a global level, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change contains provisions for the establishment of demand and supply systems. Colin Nolden - EMP-E 2019, Brussels, 8-9 th Oct. 2019
Kategorie 3: Energy and climate strategy, targets and scenarios Titel 32 Claire Nicolas
33 Energy Transition Pathways for Turkish Electricity System E�re Çele�i, Gökha� Kirkil and Ahmet Deniz Yü�ekaya • Accounting (LEAP) and The primary energy demand in Turkey is met predominantly by fossil fuels. Optimization (OSeMOSYS) Models • Scenarios • Business As Usual (BAU) • Energy Efficiency (EE) In 2017, total emissions in Turkey • Renewable Energy (REN) increased by 140% compared to 1990 . Main Insights: • improving energy efficiency • EE_OPT scenario proved to be the [National Energy Efficiency Action most cost-efficient scenario and Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023] the least import dependent scenario. • renewable energy utilization • REN_OPT has the least amounts [National Renewable Energy of GHGs and to increase the RES Action Plan (NREAP) 2014] utilization in Turkey
34 Exploring European decarbonization potential with MEDEAS model I. Perissi, F. Di Patti, S. Falsini, G. Martelloni and U. Bardi The authors estimated the remaining carbon budgets at Global and EU levels, compatibile with a 2°C of global warming by 2100. We found that: Global level: 1950 GtCO2eq (2012-2100 ) EU-28 level: 122 GtCO2eq (2012-2100) Let’s go to the poster to discuss the conclusions! 1 Perissi, I.; Falsini, S.; Bardi, U.; Natalini, D.; Green, M.; Jones, A.; Solé, J. Potential European Emissions Trajectories within the Global Carbon Budget. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4225
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