CARS AND REAL ESTATE UCLA Ziman Center June 27, 2017 Taylor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 27, 2023 190 likes •305 views

DRIVERLESS CARS AND REAL ESTATE UCLA Ziman Center June 27, 2017 Taylor Mammen, Managing Director THE IDEA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES HAS BEEN AROUND FOR DECADES Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 2 SEVERAL TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS ARE

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DRIVERLESS CARS AND REAL ESTATE

UCLA Ziman Center June 27, 2017 Taylor Mammen, Managing Director

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Ziman Center |

THE IDEA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES HAS BEEN AROUND FOR DECADES

6/27/2017 | 2

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Ziman Center |

SEVERAL TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS ARE FACILITATING AV DEVELOPMENT TODAY

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Video cameras detect traffic lights, read road signs, keep track of the position of other vehicles and look out for pedestrians and

bstacles on the road

Radar sensors monitor the position of other vehicles nearby. Such sensors are already used in adaptive cruise-control systems Ultrasonic sensors may be used to measure the position

f objects very close to the

vehicle, such as curbs and

ther vehicles

Radar sensor Signals from GPS satellites are combined with readings from tachometers, altimeters and gyroscopes to provide more accurate positioning than is possible with GPS alone Lidar (light detection and ranging) sensors bounce pulses of light off the surroundings. These are analyzed to identify lane markings and the edges of roads. Information from all of the sensors is analyzed by a central computer that manipulates the steering accelerator and brakes. Its software must understand the rules of the road, both formal and informal.

Internet of Things (V2V, V2I Connectivity)
Ubiquitous Internet
Virtual Reality
E-commerce (Amazon Drones)
Electric Cars
Processing Capacity

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Ziman Center |

AUTOMATION OCCURS ALONG A SPECTRUM

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Fully Autonomous Fully Manual

LEVEL LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4

No-Automation Driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls at all times Function-specific Automation Automation involves one or more specific control functions. Examples include electronic stability control or pre-charged brakes. Combined Function Automation This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions. For example adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering. Limited Self-Driving Automation Vehicle allows driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control. Full Self-Driving Automation Vehicle designed to perform all safety-critical functions and monitor road conditions for entire trip. Driver may provide navigation input but is not expected to be available for control at any point in the trip.

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Ziman Center |

MANY FACTORS, FROM DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, DRIVE AV DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION

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Ziman Center |

NO CONSENSUS ON TIMING, BUT AVS COULD IMPACT 10-YEAR UNDERWRITING PRO FORMA…

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2 4 6 8 10 12 2020 2025 2030 Number of Experts Year Released to Public

Industry Experts Anticipated "Release Date" of Autonomous Vehicles

PRIVATE FIRM/RESEARCH INSTITUTION TECH COMPANY AUTOMAKER

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Ziman Center |

WE MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING ANALOG IMPACTS

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Already, up to 11 vehicles removed per carsharing vehicle.

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Ziman Center |

SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS DEPEND ON THE MODEL THAT RESULTS

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Computer Operated Human Operated Asset Owned Asset Shared

2) Owned Autonomy 1) Shared Autonomy 3) Owned Dependence 4) Shared Dependence

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Ziman Center |

NUMEROUS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS:

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Parking needs/preferences/requirements, and impacts on land residual values
Consumer spending, household income available for housing
Building and urban design and form
Existing building conversion (or obsolescence?)
Additional urban land availability, and impacts on land values
Winners and losers: urban/suburban, neighborhoods, product types, etc.
What happens to TOD?
e-Commerce and distribution
Major job dislocation
Changes in how people spend their time
Changes in capital markets
Changes in infrastructure financing
Changes in insurance liability

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Ziman Center |

WHENEVER IT SEEMS FAR-FETCHED…

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AUSTIN LA ORLANDO DC

221 W 6th St Suite 2030 Austin, TX 78701 11601 Wilshire Blvd Suite 1650 Los Angeles, CA 90025 964 Lake Baldwin Ln Suite 100 Orlando, FL 32814 7200 Wisconsin Ave Suite 1110 Bethesda, MD 20814

Taylor Mammen Managing Director / Director of Institutional Advisory P: (310) 282-0437 E: TMAMMEN@RCLCO.COM W: RCLCO.COM