Carried Out in the Preparatory Phase of EELA Workshop on Energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Findings of the Market Study on EE Lighting Carried Out in the Preparatory Phase of EELA

Michael Scholand 11 February 2019 Workshop on Energy Efficient Lighting and Appliances in EAC and SADC Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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Draft Market Assessment for Review…22 Feb

• High-level market assessment

covering EAC and SADC

• Government, policy, economy,

lighting technology, supply- chain and economic analysis

• Focus on six countries out of

twenty-one

• Conclusions and

Recommendations

• Comments / updates /

improvements by 22 February

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Methodology – Focus on Six Countries

• Twenty-one countries across

East and Southern Africa

• 446 million people
• 36% on grid (162 m)
• 64% off-grid (284 m)]
• Budget and time constraints

required to focus on six countries, 35% of population

• Madagascar, Namibia, South

Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe

• GDP, Population and

GDP/capita were considered

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Methodology – Research Phase

• Literature review – SIDA study; CTCN (DNV GL); ADB;

IFC/World Bank; EACREEE; SACREEE; DSM studies

• Interviews – government, utilities, private sector,

standardization experts (with interview guide)

• Interview guides – issued to 21 countries; 11 responses
• Data – UN Comtrade; papers/reports
• Covering both on-grid and off-grid lighting technologies

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Methodology - Analysis

• Policies – identifying common aspects; regional objectives

(e.g., SADC phase-out incandescent)

• Technology mix – assess which technologies are on the

market, how rapidly is LED entering; price trends

• Market barriers to efficient-lighting – what is slowing down

efficient lighting? 5A’s: Availability, Awareness, Accessibility, Affordability and/or Acceptance

• Prepare economic analysis for each country – on-grid and
• ff-grid, comparing baseline technology with more efficient
• Prepare inventory stock model of on-grid lamps – eight years
• f shipments, rated life and operating hours
• Off-grid stock is based on UNEP 2015 study

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Economic Growth in EAC and SADC

• GDP of 21 Countries from 2000 to 2017, current US$
• US$235bn (2000) to US$803bn (2017); CAGR: 7.5%

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit GDP

• South Africa - highest emissions, at 1.4 kg CO2/US$ GDP
• Most are less CO2 intensive, being 0.2-0.4 kg CO2/US$ GDP

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Regional Electrification Rates….64% People Off-Grid

Country 2010 % electrified 2016 % electrified 2016 % urban electrified 2016 % rural electrified Population On- Grid Population Off- Grid Angola 40% 35% 69% 6% 9,750,757 18,108,548 Botswana 45% 55% 69% 32% 1,215,058 994,139 Burundi 5% 10% 35% 7% 1,019,927 9,179,343 Comoros 40% 71% 89% 62% 551,971 225,453

• Dem. Rep. Congo

15% 15% 35% 0% 11,429,493 64,767,126 Eswatini 35% 84% 90% 71% 1,107,969 211,042 Kenya 18% 65% 78% 60% 30,703,568 16,532,691 Lesotho 17% 34% 63% 24% 739,379 1,435,266 Madagascar 17% 23% 52% 7% 5,573,840 18,660,248 Malawi 9% 11% 49% 3% 1,933,097 15,640,510 Mauritius 99% 100% 100% 100% 1,262,605

• Mozambique

15% 29% 57% 15% 8,123,100 19,887,591 Namibia 44% 56% 78% 34% 1,358,314 1,067,247 Rwanda 10% 30% 72% 12% 3,488,866 8,140,687 Seychelles 58% 99% 99% 99% 92,485 934 South Africa 83% 86% 87% 83% 47,550,454 7,740,772 South Sudan 0% 1% 4% 0% 118,821 11,763,315 Tanzania 15% 33% 65% 17% 17,780,386 36,099,571 Uganda 9% 19% 23% 19% 7,627,525 32,517,345 Zambia 19% 34% 67% 7% 5,474,200 10,626,387 Zimbabwe 37% 34% 81% 11% 5,364,333 10,413,118 Totals: 70% 43% 162,266,149 284,011,331

Sources: Electrification rates are from IEA, 2017. Population data is World Bank, 2018.

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Madagascar - Overview

• No lamp or luminaire manufacturers; 100% imported
• All technologies are offered, LED is entering market
• Lighting (0.3 TWh/yr) is 14% of electricity use (2.2 TWh/yr)
• Draft law to phase-out incandescent – expected June 2019;

draft national EE policy being drafted

• Renewable energy products

are VAT-free

• IEC standards for LED lamps

have been adopted

• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 3.5 months; LED saves US$157 over 10 years

• Off-grid: solar system payback

is between 0.4 to 2.6 years

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Namibia - Overview

• No lamp or luminaire manufacturers; 100% imported
• All technologies are offered, LED is entering market
• Lighting (0.6 TWh/yr) is 16% of electricity use (3.8 TWh/yr)
• Draft National EE policy being drafted; expected in 2020; SADC issued a

regional directive to ban incandescent lamps

• Suppliers often use SABS

standards to assure quality

• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 5.1 months; LED saves US$105 over 10 years

• Off-grid: solar system payback

is between 0.4 to 2.1 years

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South Africa - Overview

• 43% of regional GDP (SADC and EAC); 55 million people (2nd largest)
• Lighting (25.1 TWh/yr) is 11% of electricity use (228.2 TWh/yr)
• Ran EE lighting programmes since the mid 1990’s (ElektroWISE); banned

incandescent lamps in 2014; working on lighting MEPS – NRCS/UNDP

• Some domestic luminaire assembly (30%) vs. imports (70%)
• Regional hub for wholesale distribution – products come through RSA ports
• Many standards - SABS

standards to assure quality

• New installations – LED
• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 6.1 months; LED saves US$63 over 10 years

• Off-grid: solar system payback

is between 0.4 to 2.75 years

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Uganda - Overview

• Policies in place for CFLs, LFLs and Ballasts; Energy Efficiency and

Conservation Bill in draft

• Lighting (0.8 TWh/yr) is 25% of electricity use (3.25 TWh/yr)
• Affiliate member of IEC and upgrading this year to full membership
• All lamps and luminaires are imported; some small businesses have

expressed interest in local assembly, but haven’t started yet

• Two Manufacturer Associations

that could cover EE lighting

• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 2.2 months; LED saves US$142 over 10 years

• Off-grid: solar system payback

is between 0.5 to 2 years;

• Solar off-grid is 2-5 times cheaper

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Zambia - Overview

• Zambia has a CFL assembly plant in Ndola (utility owned), using imported

parts; all other lighting products and equipment are imported

• Lighting is 1.4 TWh/yr, or 11.8% of the total national electricity use
• Banned incandescent lighting with Statutory Instrument No. 74 of 2016
• LED is rapidly taking off, with ZESCO running a communications strategy and a

3 million lamp trade-in; they have run CFL schemes in the past

• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 3.9 months; LED saves US$90

• ver 10 years
• Off-grid: solar system

payback is between 0.7 to 2.5 years

• Solar lighting systems

are 2-3 times cheaper to own and operate

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Zimbabwe - Overview

• Primarily an import market, has some limited local assembly. All four of the

largest importers are bringing in LED products in addition to other lamp types

• Banned inefficient lighting products (2016) and required labelling of lighting

products (2018)

• All lighting technologies, including LEDs are offered in the market; pre-pay

meters make customers more sensitive to running costs, boosting LED

• Lighting is 1.5 TWh/yr or about 18.4% of national electricity (8 TWh/yr)
• On-grid: payback for

LED lamp is 5.5 months; LED saves US$88

• ver 10 years
• Off-grid: solar system

payback is between 0.1 and 2.0 years, highly cost-effective

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Summary of Findings

• Electrical grid stability is a problem in several countries;

blackout / brownouts

• Some utilities are implementing demand side management
• Lighting is so important that fuel-based lighting is used even

though it comes with such a high social and economic cost

• Lighting markets are opening up to LED lighting; both on-grid

and off-grid LED technology are highly cost-effective

• Quality of LED lighting products is a concern – premature

failures cited

• Many policies and programmes to promote energy-efficient

lighting, but lack a coordinated / harmonised approach

• Some manufacturer associations, but lack organisation

amongst energy-efficiency providers

• Opportunity to adopt policies now and develop along a more

sustainable pathway

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Given that, what are some potential Interventions?

Fundamentals

• 1. Interlaboratory Comparison – regional laboratories (initially)
• 2. Legislative Framework – for regulating products
• 3. Participate in Regional Energy-Efficiency Centres (EACREEE / SACEEE)

Market-Pull

• 4. Green Procurement Specification – institutions buy efficient
• 5. ESCO Funding Scheme – set-up finance and incentives
• 6. Electric Utility Engagement – raise awareness, conduct DSM
• 7. Efficient Business Development – green tech incubator

Market Transformation

• 8. Quality and Performance Regulations – product regulations, lighting
• 9. Market Surveillance – enforce the regulations

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• 1. Interlaboratory Comparison - regional laboratories
• Regional action (at least initially)
• An Interlaboratory Comparison to promote

accreditation and strengthen laboratories through mutual recognition

• Test on-grid and off-grid lighting products:
• On-grid: CIE S 025/E:2015 – Test Method for

LED Lamps, LED Luminaires and LED Modules

• Off-grid: IEC TS 62257-9-5:2018

Recommendations for renewable energy and hybrid systems for rural electrification - Part 9-5: Integrated systems - Laboratory evaluation of stand-alone renewable energy products for rural electrification

• Ensure laboratories are calibrated to same

international standards

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• 2. Legislative Framework – Regulating Products
• National action, not all countries will need this
• Create a legislative framework that grants authority to a

Department / Ministry for set mandatory product regulations (i.e., efficiency requirements)

• Legislation bestows authority; outlines the policy

process to follow; the products to cover; and can even set some regulatory requirements

• Product regulations are the cornerstone
• f national market transformation initiatives
• Examples from Europe and elsewhere

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• 3. Participate in Regional EE Centres
• National level action for regional benefit
• Engagement with the regional energy-efficiency centres
• Participate in the dialogue, plan and establish programmes designed to

support energy-efficient market transformation, including:

• harmonised product performance regulations;
• green bulk procurements;
• communications and outreach;
• policy recommendations and much more.

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• 4. Green Procurement Specification – Buy Efficient
• Regional action (potentially led by EACREEE and SACREEE)
• Develop energy-efficient / environmentally sound procurement specifications

for the public sector

• Publish the spec and encourage Ministries, Parliament, Municipalities and
• ther public entities to purchase products that meet those criteria – from

street lights to office refrigerators

• Encourage private sector participation – stimulate innovation; offering tax

incentives, etc.

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• 5. ESCO Funding Scheme - finance and incentives
• National / Regional action
• Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) unleash the power of the private sector to

deliver energy savings

• ESCOs serve as project developers, bringing

together technology, financing, installation/retrofit, and operational commissioning

• The building owner (end-user) takes no risk –

instead the ESCO finances the equipment, installs it and recovers investment over time – a ‘pay as you save’ approach.

• A low/zero interest fund which they can use

enables them to do more projects - lighting, HVAC, appliances, equipment, building envelope and other solutions.

• ESCOs (and funding) can specialise in commercial buildings, industries (e.g.,

mining, processes), or other market niche.

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• 6. Electric Utility Engagement – Raise Awareness, DSM
• National action.
• Electric utilities are pivotal, interfacing directly between the end-

user and their energy-supply

• Utility regulatory language can require or incentivize customer-side

DSM initiative – can be any product…lighting, appliances, equipment

• DSM programmes promote efficient products and provide energy

savings; soft-start to market transformation

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• 7. Efficient Business Development
• National / Regional action
• Establish a business incubator that

encourages and finances existing or start-up green-technology companies

• ‘Green-tech’ defined as products that are

more efficient than the standard products on the market

• Build local expertise and employment
• Companies could become market leaders for

that product or technology.

• Examples: LED luminaire manufacturing,

micro-solar home systems, ceiling fans, service-based industries, etc.

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• 8. Quality and Performance Regulations
• Regional action, adopted nationally
• Mandatory product regulations on

appliances, lighting and equipment

• Regional harmonization – lowers trade

barriers and costs, improves choice, policy-makers can share resources

• Regulations need to be monitored,

evaluated, updated, reviewed and revised

• Suggest lighting – a first step both on-

grid and off-grid to get familiar with the process

• Once established, other products can be

regulated through the same process

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• 9. Market Surveillance – Enforce the Regulations
• Regional and National Action.
• Product regulations need to a functional system of

monitoring, verification and enforcement

• Ensures product compliance with regulations; protects the

market from ‘gaming’ – maintain a level playing field

• Government market surveillance will independently monitor,

inspect, test and accept/reject products

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EELA Product #1 - Start with a Lighting Regulation

• Domestic lighting

⎻ High energy use, good efficacy range (“efficacy” = lumens per watt) ⎻ Define in a technology-neutral way, to cover all technologies ⎻ Consider quality requirements – light quality and colour, lifetime, flicker, power quality, etc. ⎻ On-grid and off-grid lighting systems

• Professional lighting

⎻ High energy use, fluorescent and HID to LED ⎻ Outdoor – street lights and flood lighting ⎻ Indoor – luminaires and retrofit lamps ⎻ Opportunity for business innovation – energy service companies (ESCOs) and lighting as a service (pay-per-lux)

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Thank you. Any questions?

Michael Scholand Senior Advisor Policy & Analysis Team CLASP | Europe T: +44-7931-701-568 S: mscholand E: mscholand@clasp.ngo For more information visit www.clasp.ngo or contact:

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Which Product Next? Delegate Discussion…

Governments are invited to discuss which product should follow lighting….some suggestions from Australia, EU and USA experience: ⎻ Air-Conditioning ⎻ Refrigerators, Freezers and Refrigerator-Freezers ⎻ Televisions and Computer Monitors ⎻ Washing Machines ⎻ Tumble Dryers ⎻ Electric Motors ⎻ Distribution Transformers