Canadian Provinces By Motassem Al-Arydah Jan M. Zielinski What is - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CMS and MMEI 2019 On the Efficiency of Radon Mitigation Program in Canadian Provinces By Mo’tassem Al-Arydah

Jan M. Zielinski

What is Radon? • Radon is a radioactive gas results from normal decay uranium, thorium, and radium in rocks and soil. • Invisible, odorless, tasteless

Radon Mitigation: Does it worth to spend avg=1500$?

High levels ls lea eads to o lung can ancer

Rela elativ ive Ris Risk Definition: A measure of the strength of association based on prospective studies (cohort studies).

Attributable Risk Definition: The amount of disease that can be attributed to a certain exposure. • Useful in determining how much disease can be prevented

Attri tributable le Ris Risk for or an an Ex Expo posed Grou oup

Comp Co mput uting Pop opul ulation Attrib tributable Ri Risk for r Ra Rado don Expo Exposure        R ( ) p ( ) d R (0) m 0 PAR      R ( ) p ( ) d m 0        { RR ( ) 1} p ( ) d m 0      RR ( ) p ( ) d m 0  R ( )   RR ( ) R ( ) 0

Method: Life-table Analysis   110 i 1   h ( 1 e ) i i      R ( ) h e S ( , , 1 i e ) [ 1 q exp( h e )] exp( h e ).  i i i i k k * h   i i i i 1 k 1 the probability of surviving year i for an individual with exposure given that the individual survived up to year i-1  i 1  h   * all causes mortality rate S ( , , 1 i e ) q ( e ) i k k i  h  k 1 lung cancer mortality rate    * i q e ( ) exp[ ( h h e )] i i i

Ex Exce cess Rela elativ ive Risk Risk: BEIR EIR VI VI Mod odels ls          * e ( ) i ( ) i ( ) w K i wl

Duration model Concentration model

Par aram ameter valu alues

Canada: Observed Radon Data for the period 2010-2011

Rad adon on Distrib ibutio ion – Lo Lognormal l App pproxim imatio ion Mean Radon Concentrations in Canadian Homes by Province / Teritorry (2010 - 2011 Survey) First Floor, Rn Originally Monitored Participants Rn Concentrations (Bq/m ) Province / Teritorries N AM ASD GM GSD Mdn Max Newfoundland and Labrador 460 60.1 134.1 25.0 3.2 21 1548 Prince Edward Island 83 40.2 61.4 20.6 2.9 18 352 Nova Scotia 385 66.1 146.9 27.3 3.3 23 1376 New Brunswick 469 157.4 332.0 64.1 3.9 72 5590 Quebec 690 78.6 172.3 33.1 3.4 30 2923 Ontario 2464 74.6 156.4 38.8 3.0 36 5657 Manitoba 757 132.5 160.4 74.8 3.1 87 1583 Saskatchewan 793 119.3 144.8 80.3 2.5 88 2165 Alberta 676 86.0 96.7 58.1 2.5 65 1391 British Columbia 1119 63.6 151.6 25.7 3.4 21 2941 Yukon 136 130.1 236.0 71.2 2.9 79 2357 Northwest Territories 132 56.4 75.1 31.1 2.9 30 528 Nunavut 67 10.6 6.9 9.5 1.5 8 41 Total 8231 87.3 168.1 5657 41.6 3.3 38

Moti tivatio ion: Co Comparin ing LC C in n MN an and PE PE pr provinces (CA (CA) LC mortality rate PE LC mortality rate MN 7.00E-03 7.00E-03 6.00E-03 6.00E-03 5.00E-03 5.00E-03 Rate of LC death Rate of LC death 4.00E-03 4.00E-03 3.00E-03 Males 3.00E-03 Males Females 2.00E-03 Females 2.00E-03 1.00E-03 1.00E-03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Attained age (years) Attained age (years)

Moti otivation on: Co Comp mparing ng Sm Smok oking in n MN N and and PE PE Ever Smoking PE (2009) Ever Smoking MN (2009) 70 70 60 60 50 50 Percentages % Percentage % 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 50 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Age (years) Age (years) Ever smoking (males) Ever smoking (females) Ever smoking (male) Ever smoking (female)

Mot otiv ivation and and Res esearch Qu Questions • Estimate the lung cancer risks from residential radon exposures in Canada and its provinces. • Differences in PAR estimations between miners’ models and Residential model • Sensitivity of PAR to the choice relative risk model and radon distribution. How big is the range of variability in PAR results? • Possible probability density distribution for radon • How sensitive is PAR to Radon action and target levels?

Mor ore Data a ar are e ne needed • All Cases Mortality Rates 2006-2009 different data for different gender • LC Mortality Rates 2006-2009: different data for different gender • Smoking Data: 2009 different data for different gender Conclusion!! ------Grouping results by Gender and Smoking Status

function 𝒒 𝒏 (𝒙) Es Estim timatin ting:Probability De Density funct

Canada: Result 1 Model Gender CA CA(smoothed) CA CA(smoothed) Ever Smokers Never Smokers BEIR VI models 1) Exposure Age Concentration(original radon data) male 0.160 0.174 0.318 0.340 1) Exposure Age Concentration(original radon data) female 0.170 0.184 0.330 0.353 2) Exposure Age Duration (original radon data) male 0.119 0.127 0.247 0.261 2) Exposure Age Duration (original radon data) female 0.126 0.134 0.256 0.271 3) 2003 EPA Scaled Concentration model (smoothed_phi) A) original radon data male 0.135 0.146 0.274 0.294 A) original radon data female 0.143 0.155 0.285 0.305 B) lognormal (as in Jing, 2012) male 0.144 0.156 0.294 0.314 B) lognormal (as in Jing, 2012) female 0.153 0.165 0.306 0.306 4) Monte Carlo for EPA scaled concentration model (smoothed_phi) 0.284 0.292 A) original radon data male mu 0.134 0.146 0.008 0.008 A) original radon data sigma 0.004 0.005 A) original radon data fem mu 0.142 0.154 0.007 0.008 A) original radon data sigma 0.004 0.005 B) lognormal male mu 0.144 0.156 0.294 0.314 B) lognormal sigma 0.006 0.006 0.011 0.011 B) lognormal fem mu 0.153 0.165 0.305 0.325 B) lognormal sigma 0.006 0.007 0.011 0.011

Res esult lts 1 - Cana anada Model Gender CA CA(smoothed) CA CA(smoothed) Ever Smokers Never Smokers 5) Etiologic Fraction (EPA 2003) A) original radon data male 0.175 0.193 0.378 0.416 A) original radon data female 0.184 0.203 0.401 0.440 B) lognormal male 0.194 0.213 0.418 0.460 B) lognormal female 0.204 0.224 0.443 0.487 6) CRR (miners) or BEIRVI (beta=0.0117) A) original radon data No smoking correction male 0.176 0.172 0.196 0.192 No smoking correction female 0.179 0.175 0.195 0.190 smoking correction male 0.162 0.158 0.327 0.321 smoking correction female 0.165 0.161 0.325 0.318 B) lognormal No smoking correction male 0.186 0.182 0.212 0.207 No smoking correction female 0.212 0.207 0.211 0.205 smoking correction male 0.172 0.168 0.348 0.342 smoking correction female 0.175 0.171 0.346 0.339 7) CRR (potency from Meta Analysis of all studies) A) original radon data beta=0.01 male 0.155 0.152 0.173 0.169 beta=0.01 female 0.158 0.154 0.171 0.167 B) lognormal beta=0.01 male 0.165 0.162 0.187 0.183 beta=0.01 female 0.187 0.183 0.186 0.181 c) Gaussian Kernel estimation beta=0.01 male 0.167 0.163 0.186 0.181 beta=0.01 female 0.170 0.166 0.184 0.180