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June 2013 Benjamin Tal
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CIBC Employment Quality Index
Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations.
80 85 90 95 100 105 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Index Jan 1988=100 12-mos moving avg
Canadian Labour Market Benjamin Tal June 2013 CIBC Employment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Canadian Labour Market Benjamin Tal June 2013 CIBC Employment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Mismatch in the Canadian Labour Market Benjamin Tal June 2013 CIBC Employment Quality Index Index Jan 1988=100 105 12-mos moving avg 100 95 90 85 80 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Source: CIBC calculations based on
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Slow Growth in Number of Full-Time High-Paying Jobs
Note: Low-paying (below 85% of median wage), Mid-paying (between 85%-115% of median wage), High-paying (over 115% of median wage) Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations.
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Low-paying industries Mid-paying industries High-paying industries Employment index 1988=100
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Wage Gains
Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations.
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Low-paying industries Mid-paying industries High-paying industries Wage index Dec 1992=100 3-mos moving avg Not Much Difference During the 1990s Jobless Recovery and the Early 2000
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 05 07 09 11 13 Low-paying industries Mid-paying industries High-paying industries Wage index 2005=100 3-mos moving avg High-paying Industries Led the Way in Recent Years
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Stable Unemployment Masks Rising Vacancies
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Vacancies to Unemployment Ratio 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 % Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 11 12 %
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Skill Shortage
Distribution of Employment (2012) Others Occupations facing skilled shortage
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC calculations
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Surplus Labour
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Unemployment Rate 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 10 11 12 % excluding occupations with surplus labour
Total Unemployment Others Surplus labour
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The Inflow Rate (L); Long-Term Unemployment (R )
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Unemployed 1-13 Weeks as a share of Labour Force 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 %, 6-mo moving avg avg Unemployed 27 Weeks+ as a share of Labour Force 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 %, 6-mo moving avg avg
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