Canada's Latest Food Manufacturing and Food Services Industry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

conferenceboard.ca

Canada's Latest Food Manufacturing and Food Services Industry Outlook

Jean-Charles Le Vallée, PhD

Associate Director, Centre for Food & Food Horizons Network The Conference Board of Canada May 4, 2017 – SIAL Toronto @CBoC_Food

2

• Introduction to the Centre for Food

–plus Canada’s Food Performance

• Canadian Consumers
• Trade Indicators
• Food Manufacturing
• Food Services
• 6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit

–Calgary, December 5-6, TELUS Convention Centre

Outline.

3

The Centre for Food.

4

• International and

domestic comparisons.

• Food industry

performance.

• Benchmarking.
• Third-party

monitoring.

• Food policy

analysis.

Advanced Food Performance Monitoring and Reporting Expertise.

5

The Canadian Food Strategy.

• Launched March 2014.
• 20+ Research Reports.
• 3 Summits (1500 participants).
• Nation-wide Consultations with

Industry, Government & Canadians (2000 responses).

• 2 National Surveys with Industry

and consumers (2200 responses).

• 5 themes, 8 goals, 62 desired
• utcomes.

6

Guided by Five Strategic Food Themes.

7

25+ Research Reports.

8

Global Report Card on Food Performance.

• 17 OECD countries.
• For Canada:
• Food Safety: A
• Health & Diets: B
• Food Security: B
• Industry Prosperity: B-
• Environmental

Sustainability: C+

9

• Evaluates and ranks common

elements among global food safety systems.

• 17 OECD countries.
• 10 performance indicators.
• 3 food safety risk governance

domains: assessment, management, and communication.

2014 World Ranking of Food Safety Performance.

10

11

12

2017 Provincial Food Report Card.

13

2017 Provincial Food Report Card.

14

• Centre for Food
• Canadian Consumers
• Trade Indicators
• Food Manufacturing
• Food Services
• 6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit

–Calgary, December 5-6, TELUS Convention Centre

Presentation Outline.

15 Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Consumer Attitudes Vary Widely by Province.

Index of Consumer Confidence, year-over-year per cent change, 2016

• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 Alberta Ontario Canada Saskatchewan-Manitoba British Columbia Quebec Atlantic Provinces

16 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada

Food Inflation Has Been Strong.

Consumer prices for select products, year-over-year per cent change, 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dairy products Fish Bakery and cereal products Food purchased from restaurants All Food Fruit, fruit preparations and nuts Vegetables Meat

17 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

Food Sales Remain Steady.

Retail sales index Jan. 2010=100 90 100 110 120 130 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16

All Retail Food and Beverage Stores

18

Annual Canadian Household Expenditures.

19

Average Annual Food & Beverage Expenditures.

20 Source: Statistics Canada.

Debt Burdens Are a Concern.

share of disposable income used to service debt, per cent 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

21 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. f = forecast

Growth in Real Spending on Food and Beverages Softening.

real spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages, per cent change

• 0,5

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

22 Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

Consumer Tastes Can Change.

per capita meat consumption, kg/year 10 20 30 40 50 60 1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Chicken Pork Beef

23

Drop in Liquid Refreshment Beverage Consumption.

24

• Centre for Food
• Canadian Consumers
• Trade Indicators
• Food Manufacturing
• Food Services
• 6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit

–Calgary, December 5-6, TELUS Convention Centre

Outline.

25 Source: UN population database.

Population Growth Will be Strongest in Emerging Markets.

increase in population 2014-2024, millions More developed regions; 27 Less developed regions; 537 Least developed regions; 237

26 Source: OECD-FAO.

Proteins Are the Key Area for Demand Growth.

average annual growth in per capita demand, 2014-2024, per cent

• 5

5 10 Cereals Sugar Other Meat Dairy Fish Vegetable oils Developed countries Other developing countries Least developed countries

27 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada.

Exports Account for Significant Share of Industry Sales.

share of 2015 sales, per cent

69 23 2 2 5 31

Domestic United States China Japan Other

Exports

28

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Exports Imports

Real Exports of Food Products Continue to Climb, While Imports Have Stagnated.

exports and imports of food products, $ billions 2007

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Industry Canada.

29 Sources: Industry Canada; The Conference Board of Canada

Export-Intensive Segments Should Benefit Most From a Weaker Currency.

share of 2015 manufacturing shipments exported, per cent 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dairy Products Animal Food Meat Products Bakeries and Tortilla Food Manufacturing Grain and Oilseed Sugar and Confectionery Manufacturing Seafood Products Fruit and Vegetable

30

• Centre for Food
• Canadian Consumers
• Trade Indicators
• Food Manufacturing
• Food Services
• 6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit

–Calgary, December 5-6, TELUS Convention Centre

Outline.

31

About the Canadian Food Manufacturing Industry.

32

Breakdown by Food Manufacturing Subsector.

33

Food Manufacturing Distribution by Province.

34 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Food Manufacturing by Segment.

share of GDP, 2015 Meat Products; 25 Dairy Products; 13 Bakeries and Tortilla; 12 Grain and Oilseed; 11 Fruit and Vegetable ; 9 Animal Food, 6 Seafood Products; 5 Sugar and Confectionery; 5 Other Food; 15

35 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Seafood Product Manufacturing Expected to Remain Industry Growth Leader Near Term.

GDP, per cent change

• 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 Fruit and vegetable Meat Dairy Animal food Food Manufacturing Average Sugar and confectionary Grain and oilseed Bakeries and tortilla Other food Seafood 2013–15 2015–17f

36

• Canadian economy is entering a new trade era characterized by:

– lower commodity prices – a weaker Canadian dollar – strengthening demand from south of the border.

• Food manufacturing among the very few manufacturing industries that

are poised for success in upcoming trade era.

• Geographic advantage and a strong food safety record.

Entering Canada’s Next Trade Era.

37

Food Manufacturing Exports to EU.

38

Food Processed Imports from EU.

39

• Centre for Food
• Canadian Consumers
• Trade Indicators
• Food Manufacturing
• Food Services
• 6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit

–Calgary, December 5-6, TELUS Convention Centre

Outline.

40

About the Canadian Food Services Industry.

41

Food Service Industry Distribution by Province.

42

Food Service Industry Breakdown by Segment.

43

Food Service Industry Profit Margins.

44

Restaurant Prices.

45

• Canadian consumer will be hard pressed to increase their current pace
• f spending.
• Food manufacturing industry less sensitive to economic conditions than
• ther industries.
• Food service industry sensitive to elevated consumer debt and aging

population who may dine more at home and spend less eating out.

• Weak growth in domestic consumer spending on food means that

exports will be a key source of growth.

• The U.S. recovery, weakness of the Canadian dollar, and trade

agreements offer opportunities for industry.

Summary.

46

• December 5-6, Calgary TELUS Convention Centre
• 200+ delegates, high profile speakers
• Explore the future of Canada’s food sector, and leverage

new opportunities to enhance the food sector’s performance—both provincially and globally

• Sponsorships, panel speakers, exhibits available
• Current food industry topics; healthy food and diets; food

safety; sustainability; and food security

• conferenceboard.ca/conf/foodsummit/

6th Annual Canadian Food & Drink Summit.

conferenceboard.ca