[PPT] - Canada Development Canada pour la dfense Canada Defence R&D PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada

Canada

MILITARY IMPACT OF CANADIAN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

By

Evans, J.R., Dickinson, R.G., and Rey, M.

Paper presented to the 23rd International Symposium on Military Operational Research Hampshire, UK 29 August – 1 September 2006

SLIDE 2

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Defence R&D Canada (DRDC) Network of Research Centres

(note that DRDC CORA is spread across Canada in small teams, 80% in Ottawa region)

SLIDE 3

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Where DRDC CORA Fits

Other Research Centres DG DRDC CORA ADM Science & Technology DRDC Vice Chief Defence Staff Canada COMMAND Canada Expeditionary Force COMMAND, Strategic Joint Staff Chief of Land Staff Chief of Maritime Staff Chief of Air Staff Others ADM(Mat), CMP ADM(Pol), Deputy Minister // Chief of Defence Staff Minister of National Defence Foreign Affairs Solicitor General Many other Departments... Prime Minister

SLIDE 4

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Military and Civilian Sponsors

DRDC CORA

Air – 5 Teams (incl) NORAD Maritime - 4 Teams Land 3 teams CORA DG 2 Teams Centre for Security Science 1 Team Chief Military Personnel (5 Teams) Materiel - 1 team Admin Support CDI – 2 teams Operational Commands (4 teams + 1 Kabul) Policy 1 Team Vice Chief of Defence Staff 4 Teams

SLIDE 5

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

DND/CF Core Processes (defining the scope of OR&A work)

Strategy and Policy: A process for developing a roadmap by

which the DND and the CF, as an instrument of government, will meet the defence and security objectives of the Government of Canada.

Force Development: Longer-term planning associated with the

creation and maintenance of military and departmental capabilities tailored to and aligned with the security environment and available resources.

Capability Production: The process of developing capability

implementation options; acquiring equipment, personnel and infrastructure; developing training, doctrine, capability support and supply systems; and integrating them into specific Canadian Forces capabilities.

Force Generation: The process by which forces are trained,

equipped and assembled for potential operations. The process is completed

nce the forces are declared operationally ready and their command is

transferred to the field.

Force Employment: The exercise of authority over assigned

forces in the field. It includes planning, directing, coordinating and controlling these forces in the conduct of operations.

SLIDE 6

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Mission

DRDC CORA’s mission is to provide expert, objective and timely operational research, analytical support, and advice based on the scientific method. The majority of the effort supports:

measuring the impact of force development and resource allocation
ptions;
meeting the analytical requirements of the acquisition process;
contributing to improved operational effectiveness and efficiency of the

CF and DND today and in the future; and

providing scientific and technical intelligence support.
providing research, analysis, and strategic advice to enable the DND/CF

to achieve its policy and human resource goals.

SLIDE 7

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS COMMUNITY

OR&A community (170 Civilian Defence Scientists) falls within

ne of four subgroups:
OR Scientists (61% of total, 100% growth since 1997)
Social Scientists (16% of total, 1300% growth)
Strategic Analysts (15% of total, 400% growth)
Intelligence Analysts (8% of total, 17% growth)

SLIDE 8

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Measures of Military Impact

Cost savings and efficiencies (identified by the application of

OR&A techniques)

Changes in CF/DND program directions or policies

influenced by OR&A

Operational successes attributed to OR&A
Decision complexity reductions using OR&A methods
Operational or programmatic risk reductions or identification
Knowledge gaps filled
Lessons learned
Improved training or mission preparedness achieved
Acquisitions made or deferred (including emerging

technology adopted or rejected)

Consensus achieved or disagreements exposed
Influence on Allied operations

SLIDE 9

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Recent Examples of OR&A Impact

Strategy & Policy

– Historical Operations Database – Personnel Modelling – Support to CF Transformation – Strategic Cost Modelling

Force Development & Capability Production

– Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) – Effectiveness of Technology (HFSWR) – Combat Wargaming – Force Structure & Fleet Mix Analysis – Strategic Lift

Force Generation and Employment

– Optimization of Maritime Air Patrol Plans – Managed Readiness And Sustainment Modelling – Improved Pilot Training – Strategic Analysis Deployed Support to ISAF Kabul – Social Science and Personnel Tempo Survey

SLIDE 10

Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada

Canada

OR&A Support to Strategy & Policy

SLIDE 11

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

HISTORICAL OPERATIONS DATABASE

CF International Operational Commitments 1980 - Q1 2004

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fiscal Year # of CF Personnel Deployed

Bosnia Gulf War

Iraq

War on Terror

Including Afghanistan & The Arabian Sea

Haiti Kosovo Eritrea East Timor Africa Rwanda Somalia Cambodia Middle East Missions Cyprus The Americas War in Kosovo Haiti

SLIDE 12

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

PERSONEL MODELLING IN SUPPORT OF RECRUITING, RETENTION AND GROWTH STRATEGY

SLIDE 13

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

SUPPORT TO CDS TRANSFORMATION, AND CAPABILITY-BASED PLANNING / COSTING

Step 6 Step 5 Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1

Capability Based Planning The Process

SCENARIOS

…

TASKS CAPABILITIES TASKS CAPABILITIES TASKS CAPABILITIES TASKS CAPABILITIES

N O . P O S S IB L E T A S K S C T F M S T F R 0-1 M S T F R 2+ N e ver C o n d u ct o p p o se d a irb o rn e in se rtio n 3 3

C on duc t airbo rne a ss au lt of enem y te rritor y ag ains t d efend ed

airhe ad C o n d u ct la n d in g o f fo rce s a sh o re fro m th e se a in u n o p p o se d e n viro n m e n t 3 4

T ran sp ort T F land forc es as hor e
Pr ov ided b y air/s ea pla tfor m s (ie : helo /la ndin g cr aft)

C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se ize & h o ld se le c te d vita l p o in ts in u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 5

C ap tu re v ita l p oints in u rban env ironm ent: p ublic b uildin gs,

com m unic ations infras truc tu re, cu ltu ral lan dm ark s , tr ans po rtation no des , C 2 nod es , pub lic infra struc ture C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se ize & h o ld se le c te d vita l p o in ts in n o n -u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t 3 6

C ap tu re v ita l p oints in n on-u rba n env iron m en t: dom ina nt

natur al te rra in fe ature s, c r itic al tr ans por tation nod es , c ritic a l in fras truc ture C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se ize & h o ld la rg e a re a s in u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t 3 7

C ap tu re lar ge ar eas in a den se u rban env iron m en t: s ev er al

city blo ck s in m ajo r urb an c entre

D efen d are as fro m c ou ntera ttac k un til re liev ed

N O . P O S S IB L E T A S K S C T F M S T F R 0 -1 M S T F R 2+ N ever C o n d u c t o p p o se d a irb o rn e in se rtio n 3 3

C ond uc t air bor ne as s ault of en em y ter ritory aga inst de fe nde d

air hea d C o n d u c t la n d in g o f fo rce s a s h o re fro m th e se a in u n o p p o se d e n viro n m e n t 3 4

T r ans po rt T F lan d fo rc es as h ore
P ro vide d by a ir/s ea platform s (ie: h elo/lan ding c raft)

C o n d u c t o p e ra tio n s to s e ize & h o ld se le cte d vita l p o in ts in u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 5

C aptur e vital po ints in urb an en viro nm e nt: pub lic bu ild ings ,

c om m u nica tio ns infr astru ctur e, c ultur al landm ark s, tra ns por ta tio n node s, C 2 n odes , p ublic in fr as tr uc tu re C o n d u c t o p e ra tio n s to s e ize & h o ld se le cte d vita l p o in ts in n o n -u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 6

C aptur e vital po ints in non -ur ban e nvir onm ent: d om inan t

na tu ral ter rain featu res , c ritica l tran sp ortatio n n ode s, c r itic al infra s tr uctu re C o n d u c t o p e ra tio n s to s e ize & h o ld la rg e a re a s in u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 7

C aptur e larg e are as in a d ens e urb an en vir onm e nt: s ev eral

c ity bloc ks in m ajor u rba n ce ntre

D efend a rea s from c oun te rattac k until relie ved

N O . P O S S IB L E T A S K S C T F M ST F R 0-1 M ST F R 2 + N e ver C o n d u ct o p p o se d a irb o rn e in se rtio n 3 3

C o nduc t airb orn e as sa ult of ene m y terr ito ry a gain st defen ded

airh ead C o n d u ct la n d in g o f fo rce s a sh o re fro m th e se a in u n o p p o se d e n viro n m e n t 3 4

T ran s port T F land for ces as hor e
P rov ided b y air /s ea p latfo rm s ( ie: he lo/land ing cr aft)

C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se iz e & h o ld s e le cte d v ita l p o in ts in u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 5

C a pture v ital points in u rba n env iron m ent: p ublic buildin gs ,

co m m unic ations infras truc ture , c ultura l la ndm a rks , tr ans po rtation no des , C 2 no des , pu blic infra stru ctur e C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se iz e & h o ld s e le cte d v ita l p o in ts in n o n -u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 6

C a pture v ital points in n on- urb an env iro nm en t: dom in ant

natur al terr ain fe atur es, cr itic al trans po rtation no des , c ritica l infras truc ture C o n d u ct o p e ra tio n s to se iz e & h o ld la rg e a re a s in u rb a n e n viro n m e n t 3 7

C a pture la rge a rea s in a de nse urba n env iron m en t: se ver al

city b lock s in m a jor ur ban c entr e

D e fe nd ar eas fr om co unter atta ck u ntil r eliev ed

95+ TASKS

TASKS CAPABILITIES

A b i l i t y t

c
m

m a n d a n d c

n

t r

l o

w n f

r

c e s A b i l i t y t

c
m

m a n d a n d c

n

t r

l f

r i e n d l y / a l l i e d f

r

c e s A b i l i t y t

c
m

m u n i c a t e w i t h

w

n f

r

c e s A b i l i t y t

c
m

m u n i c a t e w i t h f r i e n d l y / a l l i e d f

r

c e s

r

a g e n c i e s A b i l i t y t

p

r

v

i d e i n t e l l i g e n c e s u p p

r

t t

w

n f o r c e s A b i l i t y t

p

r

v

i d e i n t e l l i g e n c e s u p p

r

t t

f

r i e n d l y / a l l i e d f

r

c e s A b i l i t y t

c
n

d u c t c

u

n t e r i n t e l l i g e n c e a c t i v i t y a b i l i t y t

c
n

d u c t p e r s i s t e n t m a r i t i m e s u r f a c e s u r v e i l l a n c e a b i l i t y t

c
n

d u c t p e r s i s t e n t u n d e r w a t e r s u r v e i l l a n c e a b i l i t y t

c
n

d u c t p e r s i s t e n t s u r v e i l l a n c e

f

l a n d a r e a s G r

u

n d B a s e d P r e c i s i

n

A p p r

a

c h R a d a r s y s t e m s L i g h t I n f a n t r y C

y

M e d i u m W e i g h t I n f C

y

M e c h a n i z e d I n f a n t r y C

y

A r t i l l e r y ( I n d i r e c t A r e a F i r e s ) P r e c i s i

n

A r t i l l e r y ( I n d i r e c t P r e c i s i

n

F i r e s ) A r m

u

r e d S q n ( D i r e c t P r e c i s i

n

( H e a v y ) F i r e s S q n ) M G S , M M E V , T U A S y s t e m ( D i r e c t P r e c i s i

n

( M e d i u m ) F i r e s S q n ) E n g r F d S q n ( i n c l u d i n g E O D ) E n g r S p S q n S i g s S q n A D A T S S y s ( P

i n

t A D B t y ) A D A T S B t y ( A r e a A D B t y )

65+ CAPABILITIES 85+ OPTIONS TASK VS CAPABILITY

Frequency
Consequence

CAPABILITY OPTIONS

CAPABILITY VS OPTIONS

Opportunity
Effectiveness

CAPABILITY OPTIONS CAPABILITY OPTIONS CAPABILITY OPTIONS CAPABILITIES OPTIONS

Frequency
Consequence

TASK WEIGHTING

SCTF
MSTF

CAPABILITY GOALS

TASKS/CAPS

G a p / A f f l u e n c e I d e n t i f i c a t i

n

G a p / A f f l u e n c e v a l i d a t i

n

MISSION ANALYSIS CF contributions

SLIDE 14

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

STRATEGIC COST MODEL – ATTRIBUTING COSTS TO CAPABILITIES OVER A THIRTY- YEAR WINDOW

Consolidated Data

Pan-CF all source data pull

Attribution Tables

Indirect Costs

30 Yr Model Rollup

Profiles Demands Rolled Up into Effects then compared to Supply

Attribution Master Excel File Capability Cost Profiles

Direct-Indirect Cost Rollup

Consolidated Data

Pan-CF all source data pull

Attribution Tables

Indirect Costs

30 Yr Model Rollup

Profiles Demands Rolled Up into Effects then compared to Supply

Attribution Master Excel File Capability Cost Profiles

Direct-Indirect Cost Rollup

SLIDE 15

Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada

Canada

OR&A Support to Force Development & Capability Production

SLIDE 16

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

ISR DECISION SUPPORT – UNMANNED AIR VEHICLES VERSUS MANNED AIRCRAFT

SLIDE 17

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

MARITIME SURFACE TRAFFIC DENSITY SIMULATION MODEL MATRICS

SLIDE 18

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TECHNOLOGY – THE HIGH FREQUENCY SURFACE WAVE RADAR

SLIDE 19

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

COMBAT WARGAMING

87 147 184 164 29 33 27 31 85 29 28 37 39 31 1 8 40 80 120 160 200 240 Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4

Missions - All Scenarios

Full Success Partial Success Delayed Success Failed

SLIDE 20

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

FORCE STRUCTURE AND FLEET MIX ANALYSES

SLIDE 21

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

RISK COMPARISON BETWEEN NOTIONAL FLEETS

Risk Comparison Between Notional Fleets

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Minor Measurable Significant Critical Severe

Scenario Impact Categories Cumulative Risk

Fleet A Fleet B

Risk Threshold

SLIDE 22

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

STRATEGIC LIFT

SLIDE 23

Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada

Canada

OR&A Support to Force Generation and Employment

SLIDE 24

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

FORCE GENERATION AND FORCE EMPLOYMENT

Minimum Standoff Distance Attacking Unit Patrol Boat Inner Security Zone Barrier Detect Outer Perimeter Mounted .50 Cal HMG Sentry Armed with C7 Warn Classify Engage

Jetty

Minimum Standoff Distance Attacking Unit Patrol Boat Inner Security Zone Barrier Detect Outer Perimeter Mounted .50 Cal HMG Sentry Armed with C7 Warn Classify Engage

Jetty

SLIDE 25

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

OPTIMIZATION OF MARITIME AIR PATROL PLANS

SLIDE 26

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

MANAGED READINESS AND SUSTAINMENT MODELLING

Personnel Resources Demand Attrition Retirements Recruitment

Collective Training

Equipment

Field Force Rest of CF

CFBs, Schools, LFA HQs, CLS

Int’l Ops Support Tasks

IRU, DART TFs, Bde HQ, NEO, SCTF, TAVs, JATF

Domestic Ops

Instructors, T&E, Range staff, OPFORs HR Units Individual Training

IA

MRS

Bde HQs, Sig Sqns, Bn HQs, Coys NDHQ, Navy, Air Force Units, Personnel

A u g m e n t e e s MRP Students

Reserves

LOB Readiness Cycle Personnel Resources Demand Attrition Retirements Attrition Retirements Recruitment Recruitment

Collective Training

Equipment Equipment

Field Force Rest of CF

CFBs, Schools, LFA HQs, CLS

Int’l Ops Support Tasks

IRU, DART TFs, Bde HQ, NEO, SCTF, TAVs, JATF

Domestic Ops

Instructors, T&E, Range staff, OPFORs HR Units Individual Training

IA

MRS

Bde HQs, Sig Sqns, Bn HQs, Coys NDHQ, Navy, Air Force Units, Personnel

A u g m e n t e e s MRP Students

Reserves

LOB LOB Readiness Cycle

SLIDE 27

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

IMPROVED PILOT TRAINING

I_0 I num_yr_I IP_0 tot_lost_IP alpha_IP tot_lost_S alpha_S from_S IP tot_lost_E alpha_E S_0 pulse_yr_IP from_IP num_yr_IP E_0 num_yr_S to_S to_IP flow_control E from_OTU trn_flow S pulse_yr_S

SLIDE 28

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

SOCIAL SCIENCE AND PERSONNEL TEMPO SURVEY

SLIDE 29

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS DEPLOYED SUPPORT TO ISAF KABUL

Kabul Herat Farah Kandahar Kabul Herat Farah Kandahar

SLIDE 30

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

CONCLUSIONS

DRDC CORA supports DND/CF Core Processes
Provided examples of recent high-impact projects
Military impact is hard to assess quantitatively, but recent

growth a good measure of success. Growth attributed to: – Increased complexity of CF decision making in a decade of transition and budget restraint – Increased demand for rigour in decision making – Utility of OR&A approaches

Room for improvement. Management is currently developing

strategy on issues such as: (1) the balance of analysis support between clients and core processes, (2) the scientific areas for growth, and (3) contracting certain types of analysis to create a surge capacity.

SLIDE 31