Canada An Oasis of Stability First Quarter - 2012 Office 8.0% - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Dec 31, 2022 581 likes •811 views

Canada An Oasis of Stability First Quarter - 2012 Office 8.0% Industrial 5.4% CANADA Office 8.2% Industrial 7.0% Office 19.8% Office 13.3% Office 17.0% Industrial 11.3% Industrial 13.2%

SLIDE 1

CBRE Limited | Page 1

Source: CBRE Limited

Canada ‘An Oasis of Stability’

CANADA USA

Office – 17.0% Industrial – 10.6% Office – 18.9% Industrial – 13.9% Office – 19.8% Industrial – 11.3% Office – 13.3% Industrial – 13.2% Office – 8.0% Industrial – 5.4% Office – 8.2% Industrial – 7.0%

First Quarter - 2012

SLIDE 2

CBRE Limited | Page 2

32 to 34 5 to 6 9 to 10 9 to 10 13 to14 "Natural Rate"

Vacancy Moving Down from Cyclic Highs

42.5 / 2002 Hotels 37.9 6.8 / 2003 5.2 Multifamily 11.3 / 1992 13.2 Retail 11.9 / 2004 13.6 Industrial 19.6 / 1991 16.9 / 2010 Office Previous Peak Year 2011Q4

Vacancy and Availability Rates

Vacancy improving in all sectors except retail

Peak/Year 16.0 14.5 / 2010 13.2 / 2011 7.4 / 2009 44.5 / 2009 Year Back to “Natural Rate” 2012 2011 2017 2015 2014

Sources: CBRE-EA 2011Q4 Outlook Report

SLIDE 3

CBRE Limited | Page 3

Bell Tower

SLIDE 4

CBRE Limited | Page 4

Bell Tower and Oxford Tower

SLIDE 5

CBRE Limited | Page 5

Oxford Tower

SLIDE 6

CBRE Limited | Page 6

1630 Prospect Place

SLIDE 7

CBRE Limited | Page 7

1614 Prospect Place

SLIDE 8

CBRE Limited | Page 8

Northwest Business Park (NWBP)

SLIDE 9

CBRE Limited | Page 9

Moving Towards Undersupplied

Source: CBRE-EA Canada Outlook 4Q 2011

SLIDE 10

CBRE Limited | Page 10

Office Towers In The Pipeline

Source: CBRE Limited

SLIDE 11

CBRE Limited | Page 11

Industrial Space In The Pipeline

Source: CBRE Limited

SLIDE 12

CBRE Limited | Page 12

Calgary

2016: Bow South

400,000 SF

Matthews Development 2014: 8th Ave. Pl. – west tower

841,000 SF

Hines U/C 2014 Completion 2016: Calgary City Centre

820,000 SF

Cadillac Fairview Permitting/ Preleasing 2016 Completion 2017: Herald Site

1,200,000 SF

Brookfield 2015: Eau Claire Tower

600,000 SF

Oxford Permitting/ Preleasing 2016 Completion Permitting/ Preleasing 2015 Completion Permitting/ Preleasing 2017 Completion

NEW DOWNTOWN OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS 2014 - 2016

SLIDE 13

CBRE Limited | Page 13

NEW DOWNTOWN OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS 2014 - 2016

2015: TELUS Gardens 448,000 SF TELUS/Westbank

Under Construction 2015 Completion

2015-2016: Burrard Gateway 204,000 SF Pattison/Reliance

Permitting/Preleasing

2014: MNP Tower 270,000 SF Oxford Properties

Under Construction 2014 Completion

2015-2016: 980 Howe 270,000 SF Manulife

Permitting/Preleasing

2015: 745 Thurlow Street 365,000 SF Bentall Kennedy

Under Construction 2015 Completion

2015: The Exchange 400,000 SF Credit Suisse/Swissreal

Permitting/Preleasing 2015 Completion

Vancouver

SLIDE 14

CBRE Limited | Page 14

Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)

Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada

Market 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Vancouver $3.6 $2.9 $2.9 $3.1 $3.4 Calgary $6.0 $3.8 $1.4 $1.6 $2.5 Edmonton $2.8 $2.2 $1.2 $2.0 $2.4 Toronto $10.9 $7.3 $3.9 $7.6 $9.6 Ottawa $2.1 $0.7 $0.9 $1.0 $0.9 Montreal $4.7 $3.5 $1.9 $3.0 $3.4 Halifax $0.5 $0.2 $0.1 $0.3 $0.5 National $32.1 $21.7 $13.0 $19.5 $23.6

SLIDE 15

CBRE Limited | Page 15

2011 National Investment Sales Approach 2004 Levels

Source: Real Capital Analytics *2011 Unaudited, figures in Billions.

APARTMENT HOTEL INDUSTRIAL OFFICE RETAIL TOTAL %CHANGE

2003 $30.0 $1.2 $14.3 $46.7 $28.8 $120.9

$46.4

$58.1 $35.4 $181.0 2004 $51.4 $16.6 $21.8 $76.1 $50.4 $216.3 78.9% $17.0 $24.3 2005 $92.1 $28.6 $39.7 $109.1 $51.9 $321.3 48.5% 2006 $90.0 $36.5 $45.0 $141.3 $51.3 $364.1 13.3% 2007 $96.6 $62.0 $51.9 $209.2 $65.0 $484.7 33.1% 2008 $39.4 $11.9 $23.5 $57.7 $20.8 $153.3

68.4%

2009 $16.5 $3.3 $10.1 $18.0 $12.2 $60.2

60.8%

2010 $34.2 $12.7 $17.7 $44.8 $19.7 $129.2 114.7% 2011 $46.4 $17.0 $24.3 $58.1 $35.4 $181.0 40.1% 2011 TOTALS

SLIDE 16

CBRE Limited | Page 16

Canadian Cross-Border Capital in the U.S.

Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Properties over $2.5 million tracked since 2007. Updated 2.21.12.

Country Total Props Total Volume Canada 935 $30,788.6

*Volume in Millions of $

Market Total Props Total Volume Manhattan 12 $5,632.0 Boston 26 $3,215.0 Los Angeles 16 $2,795.8 San Diego 13 $1,726.1 Houston 40 $1,681.0 Phoenix 80 $1,054.2 DC 7 $969.5 No NJ 11 $884.6 San Jose 8 $829.2 Other 722 $12,001.2 Total 935 $30,788.6

*Volume in millions of $

SLIDE 17

CBRE Limited | Page 17

Cap Rate Compression Not Going Away

Source: CBRE Limited

Crazy! Sane?

SLIDE 18

CBRE Limited | Page 18

Cap and Interest Rates Linked

Source: CBRE Limited, Bank of Canada

SLIDE 19

CBRE Limited | Page 19

Lack of Interest

Source: Bank of Canada

SLIDE 20

CBRE Limited | Page 20

National Cap Rate vs. 10-yr Bond Yield

Source: CBRE Limited, Bank of Canada

SLIDE 21

CBRE Limited | Page 21

Comparing Institutional Performance

Source: Yahoo! Finance