03/27/2013 Cambodia mbodia Voter er Regist istry y Aud udit 2013 Phnom Penh, 21 March 2013 Supported by: Presentation entation Out utline ne Introduction Methodology & Design of the Audit VRA Management & Process Election Data Analysis: Overview of the 2012 Voter Registry & List of the Polling Stations Field Audit findings on the quality of the voter registry: 1. Comprehensiveness : registration gap, does the voter registry contain all eligible voters? 2. Accuracy : the completeness of the information of voter particulars and the existence of duplicate records 3. Currency (Validity) : is the information in the voter registry up-to-date and does it contain valid records? Voter behavior & opinion which may influence the registry Conclusions & Recommendations 1
03/27/2013 Introduction The imp mpor orta tanc nce e of vot oter er registr istrat ation ion Voter registration is a fundamental part of the election process – voter registry is the key to franchise – and thus should be checked for accuracy and validity. The maintenance and upkeep of a voter registry can be particularly challenging in countries with insufficient records, transient populations or weak infrastructure. Voter registries are susceptible to manipulation for electoral advantage. Inaccurate voter registries have led to numerous post-election conflicts in elections held around the world and have disenfranchised many eligible voters. 2
03/27/2013 Remember ember Voter registration is not perfect. Every voter registration exercise will result in some eligible voters still being disenfranchised. However, voter registration provides important and necessary safeguards to ensure that eligible voters will be able to vote. Purpos urpose e of the aud udit To address concerns raised in regard to the quality of the voter registry through the undertaking of an independent audit To ascertain the quality improvements made to the registry by the recently concluded voter update and clean up exercise To build public confidence in the electoral process 3
03/27/2013 What t is a Vot oter er Registr istry Aud udit (VRA)? )? A scientific, systematic, and independent assessment of the voter registry using a specific statistical methodology VRA is scientific and emphasizes facts, and NOT about perceptions/ opinions. A VRA is a method that is used by independent election observers around the world and has been proven reliable and accurate internationally A VRA cannot… Register voters Speculate about causes or opinions. VRA is scientific and emphasizes facts. Verify whether citizen identification documents were handed out correctly Analyze the quality of elections on election day 4
03/27/2013 Methodology & Design of Audit What is the 2013 13 Vot oter Registr stry y Audit it (VRA) met ethodo odology ogy? Electoral Data Analysis (Partial Computer Audit): 1. to assess how current or updated the registry was, a demographic a) comparison was made between the voter registry and current census population projection figures obtained from NEC & the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) to make general analysis on the 2012 voter registry and the list of polling b) stations which will be used in 2013 general elections Statistically rigorous two-way field test: 2. List to People to ensure that every name on the voter registry is that a. of an actual person who is eligible to vote and that his/ her information is correct, as well as deletion list to people test to check whether the deletions records were valid. People to List to determine if there are people who are eligible to b. vote and/ or who appear to have attempted to register to vote, but whose names are absent from the voter registry and to ensure their particulars are correct. 5
03/27/2013 Three e main criteria a for evalua aluatin ing g the vot oter er registr stry: y: Comprehensiveness/Completeness: assess what 1. proportion of eligible voters is included on the voter registry (People to List test) Currency (Validity): evaluate whether the information in 2. the voter registry is updated in timely fashion (List to People test – by checking the validity of the names on the registry) Accuracy: measure the rate of error in the data entered for 3. individual voters (Both tests) Sampling process… Sample Sampling frame Population of interest Inference 6
03/27/2013 Sur urvey y Design gn Sampling: a statistically representative random sample (nationwide, urban-rural, gender) Total observers: more than 450 observers were trained and deployed to do face-to-face interviews Data collection: February 5-8, 2013 and February 16-19, 2013 using structured tracking questionnaires Coverage area: 24 provinces, 176 districts, 414 communes, 830 villages and reached both urban and rural areas People to List List to People Population Voting age population in Cambodia a) Registered voters in the 2012 voter registry (for the 2013 elections) b) People in the 2012 deletion list Respondents 2,472 individuals of eligible voting 1,656 voters from the 2012 voter registry + 765 age voters from the deletion list Margin of ± 2.0% margin of error and 95% ± 2.5% margin of error and 95% level of Error level of confidence confidence , ± 3.5% margin of error for deletion list Samplin pling g Al Allocat ocation ion of Communes mmunes 7
03/27/2013 Respon sponde dent nt selec lection on List to People ple A computer program A computer program The trained selected randomly: selected randomly one observer went 415 communes & a. 4 voters from polling station in each to the location Villages selected the list of PS village & the deletion list using a statistically b. 2 people from associated with the selected representative the deletion list location sample Successfully verified, met and interviewed the respondents Can’t met the respondent in person - Talked & received information Observer met with the Observer would on the respondent’s village chief to confirm Confirm the respondent’s attempt to find & whereabouts from relatives, the location whereabouts meet the selected neighbor or village chief respondents If the selected respondent refused to be interviewed, we randomly identified a replacement Respon sponde dent nt selec lection on Peopl ple to List The trained Observer met with the observer went Observer selected the village chief to confirm to the location sampling start point In the selected 415 the location of village communes, 415 additional villages selected using a statistically representative sample Interview the Select randomly a Select four Two quota respondents respondent households respondent within each • Disabled eligible voters Interval - Every 10th household using a “lucky • 18 years old or turning house in rural areas and draw” 18 before election day every 20th house in • Recently moved to the urban areas village; • Recently died Check to the registry 8
03/27/2013 Limita tations ions of aud udit Voter registry including the deletion list used for this audit is the 2012 National Voter Registry and the 2012 Deletion List made available for us as of December 31, 2012. Therefore, any changes to the register made after this date are not taken into account by this audit report. The NIS figure of the eligible voting age population used to assess how current or up to date the voter registry is a projection made by the NIS, taking into consideration migration, mortality rate, etc., which means that the figure also contains a margin of error which is yet to be established. Because we don’t have access to the whole voter registry in an analyzable format : The registration status was checked only in the location we found the respondents and the location information given by the respondents We can’t do analysis on the duplication rate since we only can check whether the respondents are still registered in the previous address and not the whole registry VRA Managemen nagement t & Proces ocess 9
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