By: John McLaughlin June 2014 - Post Elect McLaughlin & - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Virginia ’ s 7 th Congressional District Republican Primary Survey Analysis By: John McLaughlin June 2014 - Post Elect McLaughlin & Associates www.mclaughlinonline.com

Presentation Outline 1. Methodology 2. Primary Ballot Analysis 3. General Election Analysis 4. Issue Analysis 5. Media Analysis 6. Voter Profile VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 2 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

Methodology This post-election survey of political attitudes was conducted among 400 Republican Primary election voters between June 14 th and 15 th , 2014 in Virginia ’ s 7 th Congressional District. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in a district- wide primary election. 25% of all interviews were conducted via cell phone. The accuracy of the sample of 400 likely Republican Primary Election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 3 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

GOP Primary Ballot: Cantor vs. Brat 5/29/14 6/15/14 CANTOR 61.8 44.0 BRAT 27.5 56.0 FIRM UNDECIDED 10.8 -- NET 34.3 -12.0 60 56 50 44 40 30 20 10 0 Cantor Brat VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 4 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. Obama – Approve TOTAL 44 56 20 80 Single 39 61 Obama – Disapprove North 61 39 50 50 Married 42 58 Gen. Ballot – DEM South 41 59 22 78 Protestant 49 52 Richmond MM 42 58 Gen. Ballot - GOP 49 51 Catholic 31 69 Born Again – Yes Washington D.C. MM 58 42 Gen. Ballot - UND 51 49 49 51 Vote – Brat Born Again – No Big Three Counties 42 58 45 55 46 54 Vote – Trammell Rest of District 48 52 25 75 White 46 54 Vote – UND Voted Cantor 100 0 61 39 Non-White 35 65 FNC – Reg. Voted Brat 0 100 55 45 Under 55 27 73 FNC – Not Reg. Decide Vote > 2 weeks 44 56 26 74 Over 55 53 47 Cons. Radio – Reg. Decide Vote < 2weeks 38 62 40 60 Men 40 60 Cons. Radio – Not Reg. Norm. Vote GOP Prime 52 48 46 54 Women 48 52 Tea Party – Member Norm. Vote DEM Prime 16 84 44 56 Always/Usually Cell 40 60 Tea Party – Agree 1 st Time Vote Primary 39 61 48 53 Equal Cell/Landline 34 66 Tea Party – Disagree Economic 41 60 35 65 Always/Usually Landline 55 45 Social 46 54 Pro-Life 49 52 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 52 48 Republican 55 46 Pro-Choice 40 60 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 56 44 Non-Republican 31 69 Voted Any Dem. Primary 30 70 Democrat 14 86 Never Voted Primary 42 59 Independent 38 62 Lib./Mod. 35 65 Conservative 51 50 Smwt. Cons. 52 48 Very Cons. 50 51 VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 5 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

As you are aware, very few people actually vote in primary elections. Do you normally vote in primaries? If, so do you normally vote in the Republican Primary of the Democratic Primary? If this was the first time you voted in a primary just say so. 70 64 60 50 40 30 20 14 11 11 10 0 Normally Republican Normally Democratic 1st Time Voting in DK/Ref Primary Primary Primary VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 6 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

1 st 1 st 1 st GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM Obama – Approve TOTAL 64 11 11 22 42 16 Single 60 15 20 Obama – Disapprove North 73 12 12 78 2 8 Married 64 10 12 Gen. Ballot – DEM South 63 11 11 14 47 17 Protestant 69 10 11 Richmond MM 63 11 11 Gen. Ballot - GOP 80 1 9 Catholic 55 14 16 Born Again – Yes Washington D.C. MM 69 13 12 Gen. Ballot - UND 52 7 9 71 11 9 Vote – Brat Born Again – No Big Three Counties 61 12 11 77 3 9 65 8 14 Vote – Trammell Rest of District 72 10 9 17 43 14 White 66 9 11 Vote – UND Voted Cantor 76 4 9 57 10 13 Non-White 54 28 11 FNC – Reg. Voted Brat 55 17 12 76 5 8 Under 55 58 15 12 FNC – Not Reg. Decide Vote > 2 weeks 66 10 10 44 21 16 Over 55 68 9 14 Cons. Radio – Reg. Decide Vote < 2weeks 54 16 15 82 4 5 Men 67 10 14 Cons. Radio – Not Reg. Norm. Vote GOP Prime 100 0 0 57 14 13 Women 62 12 15 Tea Party – Member Norm. Vote DEM Prime 0 100 0 87 3 5 Always/Usually Cell 61 12 14 Tea Party – Agree 1 st Time Vote Primary 0 0 100 76 2 10 Equal Cell/Landline 63 15 12 Tea Party – Disagree Economic 66 10 8 35 31 14 Always/Usually Landline 68 8 14 Social 61 15 11 Pro-Life 73 6 9 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 78 5 12 Republican 87 1 8 Pro-Choice 55 18 12 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 82 3 11 Non-Republican 38 23 14 Voted Any Dem. Primary 44 23 24 Democrat 8 65 13 Never Voted Primary 58 8 14 Independent 49 6 14 Lib./Mod. 40 23 14 Conservative 78 3 10 Smwt. Cons. 75 3 14 Very Cons. 81 3 7 VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com 7

When did you decide how you were going to vote in the Primary Election for Congress? Was it…? 70 63 60 50 40 30 20 13 8 6 10 5 5 0 Before 2 Weeks Ago The Week The Weekend On Primary DK/Ref Memorial Day before the before the Day Primary Primary VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 8 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of Obama – Approve TOTAL 63 13 8 5 5 61 14 10 6 4 Obama – Disapprove North 64 20 6 1 8 64 13 7 4 6 Gen. Ballot – DEM South 63 12 8 5 5 61 15 10 7 3 Richmond MM 63 13 8 5 5 Gen. Ballot - GOP 65 13 7 4 6 Washington D.C. MM 66 19 5 2 8 Gen. Ballot - UND 58 10 6 6 4 Vote – Brat Big Three Counties 65 10 9 5 5 63 15 7 4 7 Vote – Trammell Rest of District 59 21 5 4 7 63 13 11 8 2 Vote – UND Voted Cantor 65 11 6 4 5 65 7 8 4 1 FNC – Reg. Voted Brat 61 15 8 5 6 66 11 7 6 6 FNC – Not Reg. Decide Vote > 2 weeks 83 17 0 0 0 58 17 8 4 4 Cons. Radio – Reg. Decide Vote < 2weeks 0 0 43 26 31 68 11 7 6 6 Cons. Radio – Not Reg. Norm. Vote GOP Prime 66 14 6 3 6 61 14 8 5 5 Tea Party – Member Norm. Vote DEM Prime 53 19 14 9 2 71 8 8 6 6 Tea Party – Agree 1 st Time Vote Primary 61 8 7 7 10 62 13 8 7 7 Tea Party – Disagree Economic 64 13 10 6 5 61 16 8 3 3 Social 61 14 6 4 5 Pro-Life 67 13 8 6 6 Republican 65 14 8 4 5 Pro-Choice 61 14 6 5 5 Non-Republican 60 13 8 6 7 Democrat 59 16 9 8 5 Independent 61 12 7 5 7 Lib./Mod. 64 13 8 7 3 Conservative 64 13 7 3 7 Smwt. Cons. 64 16 3 4 5 Very Cons. 64 11 10 2 8 VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com 9

MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of Single 48 21 6 11 11 Married 66 11 7 5 5 Protestant 65 14 6 6 6 Catholic 66 13 7 6 6 Born Again – Yes 65 16 5 5 5 Born Again – No 62 14 7 7 7 White 66 13 6 5 5 Non-White 44 19 15 5 5 Under 55 60 14 8 6 8 Over 55 65 14 7 4 4 Men 64 12 9 5 6 Women 62 15 6 5 5 Always/Usually Cell 594 14 10 4 7 Equal Cell/Landline 66 14 6 5 4 Always/Usually Landline 66 13 6 4 5 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 66 14 6 3 5 Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 64 13 6 3 7 Voted Any Dem. Primary 60 13 8 5 5 Never Voted Primary 60 12 8 6 7 VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com 10

Which one of the following issues is most important to you when deciding your vote for Congress? Non- Lib. Smwt. Very Wo- Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Men GOP /Mod. Cons. Cons. Men ECONOMIC 51 47 55 52 63 49 56 56 49 49 59 44 Economy/Jobs 29 28 30 30 33 26 35 43 21 21 32 27 Gov’t Spending/Debt 17 14 20 16 25 18 17 9 22 22 22 13 Taxes 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 6 5 6 4 SOCIAL 35 36 34 34 30 34 35 37 31 35 31 38 Healthcare 13 9 16 10 18 10 15 18 8 11 13 13 Immigration 8 9 7 9 4 10 4 3 11 10 7 8 Education 5 5 5 5 4 2 8 12 1 0 5 5 Soc. Sec./Medicare 5 7 3 6 0 6 4 3 7 4 6 4 Abortion 3 4 2 2 4 4 2 1 1 6 1 5 Gay Marriage 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 0 2 4 1 4 NAT’L SEC./TERROR 7 9 5 8 3 9 5 1 13 10 6 8 SOMETHING ELSE 4 5 3 4 2 5 1 4 2 5 2 5 DK/Refused 3 2 4 3 2 3 2 3 5 2 2 4 VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 11 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? 76 80 67 70 60 50 40 30 22 20 13 10 9 10 1 0 APPROVE Strongly Smwt. DISAPPROVE Smwt. Strongly DK/REF. VA 7th C.D. GOP Primary McLaughlin & Associates 12 June 2014 - Post Elect www.mclaughlinonline.com