Building Auckland A presentation to Auckland BIDs Presented by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building Auckland

A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Presented by David Norman

Chief Economist, Auckland Council 19 August 2019

Visit www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz – Chief Economist Unit

• Headline drivers
• Housing
• Non-residential construction
• Infrastructure

What I’m covering

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• 290,000 more people (2

Taurangas) in 10 years

• Construction
• Professional services
• Tourism

We’re a fast-growing city

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Everything else to

service these people

• Central city
• But also huge

growth in the south

We’re a fast-growing city

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Auckland likely still

adding 26,000 plus people a year

• Total pop’n now over

1.7 million

• But internal emigration

stronger

Migration – poor data but strong message

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Peaked at 11% during

house price growth

• Currently 4%

Retail

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Spending up big = jobs

• Growth more

uncertain, especially domestic and China

Tourism

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

And maybe flattening elsewhere

Housing hysteria

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Affordability v the retail boost

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

“Scary” numbers

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Household debt to income ratio

A brief history of Australasian house prices

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

234% 180% 204% 194% 191% 183% Peak growth Decline

• 1.1%
• 15.4%
• 9.6%
• 0.9%
• 10.7%
• 0.2%

Australasian population growth

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Resident demand has

2 components:

• Changes in preferences
• New residents added

Housing supply response

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Auckland has consented

too few new dwellings for arrivals, let alone preference changes

Aussie building for non-residents, growth & preferences Too few new dwellings

Supply is responding but there’s a lot to do

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Multi-units are complex

• Multi-unit

developments take longer to get consented

• Took off from Jan 2018
• Up 197% since

December 2017

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Supply by area – 13 months ago

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Supply by area – today

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Regular updates are available

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• For more on these topics, see here.
• Google:

“Chief Economist Auckland Council”

• Or email

david.norman@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz

Recent growth in non-res consenting

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• Where are we housing

the new 160,000 workers?

• Floor areas up 95% in

2 years

• Excludes Commercial

Bay

Transport

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• $28 billion ATAP
• RFT – imperfect but it’s a start

FULSS

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

• $21 billion over 30 years

(not fully funded)

• Plus schools, hospitals

and other central govt services worth billions

Hmmm, we might want to stage some

• f these costs

Structure Plans – Drury and Pukekohe

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Drury

Where are these people going to work? $2+ billion funding gap

Structure Plans

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

What about brownfields?

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Dwellings consented, brown v greenfield, 12-month rolling average

Source: Chief Economist Unit, Auckland Council; Statistics New Zealand

• Latent capacity
• How long is a piece of

string?

How are we going to skill this?

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Any questions?

Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs