Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank Q3 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

building a strong innovative and relationship based bank
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Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank Q3 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank Q3 2016 S eptember 2016 2 Forward-Looking Statements From t ime t o t ime, we make writ t en or oral forward-looking st at ement s wit hin t he meaning of cert ain securit ies laws,


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SLIDE 1

Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank

Q3 2016

S eptember 2016

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SLIDE 2

Forward-Looking Statements

From t ime t o t ime, we make writ t en or oral forward-looking st at ement s wit hin t he meaning of cert ain securit ies laws, including in t his present at ion, in ot her filings wit h Canadian securit ies regulat ors or t he U.S . S ecurit ies and Exchange Commission and in ot her communicat ions. All such st at ement s are made pursuant t o t he “ safe harbour” provisions of, and are int ended t o be forward-looking st at ement s under applicable Canadian and U.S . securit ies legislat ion, including t he U.S . Privat e S ecurit ies Lit igat ion Reform Act of 1995. These st at ement s include, but are not limit ed t o, st at ement s made about our operat ions, business lines, financial condit ion, risk management , priorit ies, t arget s, ongoing obj ect ives, st rat egies and out look for calendar year 2016 and subsequent periods. Forward-looking st at ement s are t ypically ident ified by t he words “ believe” , “ expect ” , “ ant icipat e” , “ int end” , “ est imat e” , “ forecast ” , “ t arget ” , “ obj ect ive” and ot her similar expressions or fut ure or condit ional verbs such as “ will” , “ should” , “ would” and “ could” . By t heir nat ure, t hese st at ement s require us t o make assumpt ions and are subj ect t o inherent risks and uncert aint ies t hat may be general or specific. A variet y of fact ors, many of which are beyond our cont rol, affect our operat ions, performance and result s, and could cause act ual result s t o differ mat erially from t he expect at ions expressed in any of our forward-looking st at ement s. These fact ors include: credit , market , liquidit y, st rat egic, insurance, operat ional, reput at ion and legal, regulat ory and environment al risk; t he effect iveness and adequacy of our risk management and valuat ion models and processes; legislat ive or regulat ory development s in t he j urisdict ions where we operat e, including t he Dodd-Frank Wall S t reet Reform and Consumer Prot ect ion Act and t he regulat ions issued and to be issued t hereunder, t he U.S . Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act and regulat ory reforms in t he Unit ed Kingdom and Europe, t he Basel Commit t ee on Banking S upervision’ s global st andards for capit al and liquidit y reform, and t hose relat ing t o t he payment s syst em in Canada; amendment s t o, and int erpret at ions of, risk-based capit al guidelines and report ing inst ruct ions, and int erest rat e and liquidit y regulat ory guidance; t he resolut ion of legal and regulat ory proceedings and relat ed mat t ers; t he effect of changes t o account ing st andards, rules and int erpret at ions; changes in our est imat es

  • f reserves and allowances; changes in t ax laws; changes t o our credit rat ings; polit ical condit ions and development s; the possible effect on our business of

int ernat ional conflict s and t he war on t error; nat ural disast ers, public healt h emergencies, disrupt ions t o public infrast ruct ure and ot her cat ast rophic event s; reliance

  • n t hird part ies t o provide component s of our business infrast ruct ure; pot ent ial disrupt ions t o our informat ion t echnology syst ems and services; increasing cyber

securit y risks which may include t heft of asset s, unaut horized access t o sensit ive informat ion, or operat ional disrupt ion; social media risk; losses incurred as a result of int ernal or ext ernal fraud; ant i-money laundering; t he accuracy and complet eness of informat ion provided t o us concerning client s and count erpart ies; t he failure of t hird part ies t o comply wit h t heir obligat ions t o us and our affiliat es or associat es; int ensifying compet it ion from est ablished compet it ors and new ent rant s in t he financial services indust ry including t hrough int ernet and mobile banking; t echnological change; global capit al market act ivit y; changes in monet ary and economic policy; currency value and int erest rat e fluct uat ions, including as a result of oil price volat ilit y; general business and economic condit ions worldwide, as well as in Canada, t he U.S . and ot her count ries where we have operat ions, including increasing Canadian household debt levels and Europe’ s sovereign debt crisis; our success in developing and int roducing new product s and services, expanding exist ing dist ribut ion channels, developing new dist ribut ion channels and realizing increased revenue from t hese channels; changes in client spending and saving habit s; our abilit y t o at t ract and ret ain key employees and execut ives; our abilit y t o successfully execut e

  • ur st rat egies and complet e and int egrat e acquisit ions and j oint vent ures; and our abilit y t o ant icipat e and manage t he risks associat ed wit h t hese fact ors. This list is

not exhaust ive of t he fact ors t hat may affect any of our forward-looking st at ement s. These and ot her fact ors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking st at ement s. Any forward-looking st at ement s cont ained in t his present at ion represent the views of management only as of t he dat e hereof and are present ed for t he purpose of assist ing our shareholders and financial analyst s in underst anding our financial posit ion, obj ect ives and priorit ies and ant icipat ed financial performance as at and for t he periods ended on t he dat es present ed, and may not be appropriat e for ot her purposes. We do not undert ake t o updat e any forward-looking st at ement t hat is cont ained in t his present at ion or in ot her communicat ions except as required by law. Invest or Relat ions cont act s: John Ferren, S enior Vice-President 416 980-2088 Invest or Relat ions Fax Number 416 980-5028 Visit t he Invest or Relat ions sect ion at www.cibc.com 2

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SLIDE 3

Contents

3

 Macroeconomic Overview  Regulatory Environment  CIBC S

trategy and Performance

3

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SLIDE 4

Canadian Economy vs. G6 Countries

4

4

GDP Growth (% )1 2015 Canadian GDP by Industry2 10-Year Average GDP Growth Rate1 Government Net Debt to GDP1

  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Canada United St ates France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average 20% 11% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 4% 3% 10% Finance, Insurance & Real Est ate Manufacturing Wholesale & Ret ail Trade Scientific, Technical & Educational Serv. Public Admin & Utilities Mining, O&G Extraction Construction Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing Information & Cultural Industries Other 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 1.4%

  • 0.5%

0.5% 1.3% 0.8%

  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada United St ates France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average

FY2016E3 Germany 1.6 U.K. 1.6 U.S . 1.5 France 1.4 Canada 1.2 G6 Avg. 1.2 It aly 0.8 Japan 0.5 2015 It aly 133.1 Japan 128.5 G6 Avg. 91.7 U.S . 88.5 U.K. 80.8 France 75.5 Germany 43.7 Canada 30.8

1) Source: OECD.Stat 2) Source: StatsCan 3) Source of FY2016 Estimates for GDP Growth: Consensus Economics Inc. Forecasts survey August 8, 2016

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SLIDE 5

Canadian Labour Market vs. G6 Countries1

5

5

Unemployment Rate (% ) 10-Year Average Unemployment Rate (% )

7.1% 7.0% 9.3% 7.7% 9.1% 4.2% 6.7% 7.3% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average

10-Year Average Net Job Growth (% )

1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8%

  • 0.6%

0.2% 0.6% 0.4% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average

Net Job Growth (% )

July 31, 2016 U.K. 4.7 U.S . 1.1 It aly 1.9 Japan 0.8 Canada

  • 0.3

France N/ A Germany N/ A G6 Avg. N/ A July 31, 2016 It aly 11.4 France 10.3 G6 Avg. 6.8 Canada 6.9 Germany 6.1 U.K. 4.9 U.S . 4.9 Japan 3.0

1) Source: Bloomberg

  • 8.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7/ 31/ 16 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K. G6 Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7/ 31/ 16 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K. G6 Average

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SLIDE 6

Canadian Housing Market and Consumer Debt

6

6

Bank of Canada Overnight & Prime Rate (% )1 Debt Service Ratio (Interest only)3,4 (% ) Canadian Home Price Index vs. G62 YoY Change in Household Equity (% )4

8.16 8.82 8.72 7.63 7.36 7.29 7.02 6.83 6.67 6.42 6.27 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2/ 16 Interest Only 7.4 5.5 5.7 2.6 4.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3 3.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K.

2015 Germany 123.3 Canada 115.3 U.K. 111.1 U.S . 109.8 Japan 104.7 France 95.7 It aly 80.1

(1) S

  • urce: Bloomberg

(2) S

  • urce: OECD.S

t at (3) Debt S ervice Rat io = disposable income/ debt service cost (4) S

  • urce: S

t at sCan

Aug 2016 BoC Overnight 0.5 Prime 2.7

Indexed to 100 in 2010 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 BoC Overnight rates Prime

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SLIDE 7

Canadian vs. US Mortgage Market

Product 

Conservative product offerings – generally consist of fixed or variable rate option

Borrowers qualify based on qualifying posted mortgage rate

Underwriting Regulation and Taxation 

More exotic offerings (e.g. ARMs, IOs) and a greater proportion of mortgages are variable or adj ustable rate

Borrowers were often qualified using teaser rates

Prepayment penalties are common

Terms usually 5 years or less, renewable at maturity – allows reassessment of credit

Amortization usually 25 years, but can be up to 30 years

Mortgage insurance mandatory if LTV over 80% . Insurance covers full amount

Mortgages can be prepaid without penalty

30 year term most common

Amortizations usually 30 years, but can be up to 50 years

Mortgage insurance often used to cover portion of LTV over 80%

Interest is generally not tax deductible, so there is an incentive to take on less mortgage debt

Lenders have recourse to both the borrower and the property in most provinces

July 2016: BC imposed a 15% tax on foreign buyers of residential property in the Greater Vancouver regional district, effective Aug. 2/ 16. In addition, the BC government amended the Vancouver Charter to allow the city to implement a tax on vacant homes.

Interest is tax deductible, creating an incentive to take on more mortgage debt

Lenders have limited recourse in most j urisdictions

Canada United States

7

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SLIDE 8

Energy Prices and Canadian Dollar1

8

8

Average Oil Price – WTI (US$) Average C$/US$ Average Natural Gas Price (US$) US-Canada Trade Balance2 (US$B)

$66.25 $72.36 $99.75 $62.09 $79.61 $95.11 $94.15 $98.05 $92.91 $48.76 $41.06 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16 $6.98 $7.12 $8.90 $4.16 $4.38 $4.03 $2.83 $3.73 $4.26 $2.63 $2.28 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16 $0.88 $0.94 $0.94 $0.88 $0.97 $1.01 $1.00 $0.97 $0.91 $0.78 $0.76 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16

  • 71.8
  • 68.2
  • 78.3
  • 21.6
  • 28.4
  • 34.0
  • 31.6
  • 31.7
  • 36.5
  • 15.5
  • 3.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jun-16

(1) S

  • urce: Bloomberg

(2) Negat ive value reflect great er import s of Canadian goods int o t he US t han export of US goods

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SLIDE 9

Contents

9

 Macroeconomic Overview  Regulatory Environment  CIBC S

trategy and Performance

9

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SLIDE 10

Pending and Proposed Regulatory Changes

1 0

10

Liquidity Requirements Other Capital Requirements

Risk-Based Capital Ratios

  • Revisions for S

tandardized Approach Credit Risk/ Capital Floors (document out f or consult at ion)

  • Proposed risk-sensitive floor for loss-given-default that will

be tied to increase in local property prices (consultation document issued in 2016; final rules in place no later than 2017)

  • Interest Rate Risk Banking Book (Pillar 2) Jan 2018

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)

  • Canadian banks became LCR compliant January 2015
  • US

Banks with less than US $50B in assets do not have to be LCR compliant Net Stable Funding Ratio (Proposed)

  • Intent is to ensure an appropriate funding structure in

relation to the degree of the institution’ s asset illiquidity, as a way of properly mitigating funding risk in banks.

  • Final Basel Committee on Banking S

upervision (BCBS ) rules released October 2014. OS FI consultative document released January 2014.

  • Effective January 2018 –

disclosed via MD&A. Minimum NS FR

≥100%

Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) (Proposed)

  • Canadian Bail-in proposal 2015; Legislation expected in 2017
  • Financial S

tability Board November 2015

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SLIDE 11

IFRS 9 – Expected Credit Losses (ECL)

1 1

11

  • IFRS

9 ECL requires banks t o swit ch their allowance methodology from an incurred loss model t o an expected credit loss model.

  • The mandat ory date is fiscal 2019, but OS

FI requires all large Canadian banks t o apply t his new met hodology one year earlier

  • In the IFRS

9 ECL approach, each credit portfolio is segmented int o t hree st ages, of which each st age represent s a different level of relat ive credit risk and requires different levels of coverage: Stage 1 – Credit qualit y at init ial recognition

This st age includes mainly new and good performing account s – allowance of 12-mont h expect ed credit losses Stage 2 – Account s for which credit risk has increased significantly since init ial recognition

This st age includes mainly account s whose credit qualit y (e.g., Beacon or risk rating) has deteriorated since origination (e.g., delinquent account s or account s on wat ch list or account s that have experienced a significant drop in the risk rat ing or credit score) - allowance for lifet ime expect ed credit losses (model driven) Stage 3 – Account s for which t here is obj ect ive evidence of impairment

This st ages includes impaired account s – allowance for lifet ime expect ed credit losses (individual account driven)

  • In the allowance calculation for each of the stages above, banks are required t o incorporate forward looking informat ion

and macro-economic fact ors

  • In t he U.S

., banks generally report under U.S . GAAP and will not t ransition t o IFRS

  • 9. Inst ead, t he U.S

. banks (that report under U.S . GAAP) are expected t o t ransit ion t o a different expected loss model in which all loans are essentially t reated as st age 2 / st age 3 (i.e. life t ime expected losses). However, t he U.S . GAAP t ransition date is expected t o be aft er t he IFRS 9 ECL dat e

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SLIDE 12

IFRS 9 ECL – Stage Migrations (Subject to Determination of Final Migration Criteria)

1 2

12

  • The chart below shows the difference between the two IFRS rules for business and government loans using risk

rating as a trigger for migrations between stages

Current Pract ice: IFRS 9: Business & Gov’t portfolios Watchlist Risk Rating at

  • rigination

Impaired Classification Impaired st at us Accounts written-off Stage 1 (No material change in risk rating from

  • rigination)

Stage 2 (Significant change in risk rating from

  • rigination)

Stage 3 (Obj ective evidence of impairment) Collective Allowance for Non-Impaired Individual Allowance for Impaired

  • The chart below shows the difference between the two IFRS

rules for retail loans using delinquency as a trigger for migrations between stages. Note that there are potentially other triggers for migration (e.g. Beacon score)

Current Pract ice: IFRS 9: Retail portfolios Early Stage Delinquent Risk Rating at

  • rigination

Impaired Classification Impaired st at us Accounts written-off Stage 1 (No material change in credit score from

  • rigination)

Stage 2 (Significant change in credit score from

  • rigination)

Stage 3 (Obj ective evidence of impairment) Collective Allowance for Non-Impaired Collective Allowance for Impaired

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SLIDE 13

Contents

1 3

 Macroeconomic Overview  Regulatory Environment  CIBC S

trategy and Performance

13

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SLIDE 14

CIBC Overview(1)

CIBC is a leading Canadian-based financial institution providing a full range of financial products and services in Canada and around the world. We are creating long-term shareholder value by focusing

  • n our clients, innovating for

the future and simplifying our bank.

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Canadian banking centres 1,115 Employees ~44,000 Clients ~11 MM Market capitalization ~$39 B Assets $494 B Assets under Administration (AUA) $1,994 B Assets under Management (AUM) $180 B Adjusted Net income after taxes (NIAT) $4,014MM (LTM) Adjusted return on common shareholders’ equity 18.9% (LTM) Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 10.9%

1 Dat a as of July 31, 2016

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SLIDE 15

Our Strategy - Driving Continued Profitable Growth

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Building a Strong Innovative Relationship-Oriented Bank

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SLIDE 16

Focusing on Our Clients

16

#1

in client satisfaction

Bank-wide priority

Not a new area of focus:

  • Closed the gap

significantly

  • Outpaced Cdn

competitors – last 3 yrs Increasing Urgency and Intensity Our Goal:

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SLIDE 17

Bank Wide Innovation – 3 Horizons

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Core Banking Adjacent Opportunities Ground- Breaking Ideas

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SLIDE 18

Simplifying Our Bank - Program Clarity

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Digitization

Improving client experience and efficiency

Data

Harnessing data as an enterprise-wide asset

Process Simplification

Making it easier to get things done

Workforce

Evolving how and where we work

Suppliers

Generating more value from

  • ur partners

Demand Management

Providing the right support for

  • ur business

1 2 3 4 5 6

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SLIDE 19

Retail & Business Banking Key Initiatives

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Key Strategic Initiatives

  • S

implify banking centre structure

  • Transform our network
  • Leverage digital channels
  • Build partnerships and

drive innovation

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SLIDE 20

Key Strategic Initiatives

Capital Markets Key Initiatives

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  • S

trengthen & expand leadership positions in Canada

  • Build a North American

platform & expand coverage in key sectors globally

  • Deliver innovation to

clients across CIBC

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SLIDE 21

Wealth Management Key Initiatives

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Key Strategic Initiatives

  • Enhance client experience
  • Drive asset growth
  • S

implify and optimize business platform

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SLIDE 22

A History of Strong Financials and Returns to Shareholders(1)

(1)

Present ed under IFRS

  • basis. Adj ust ed result s are considered Non-GAAP measures which exclude it ems of not e as referenced in our Q3/ 16 Report t o S
  • hareholders. 2016

(LTM)- For last t welve mont hs ending July 31, 2016.

(2)

Peer Average includes RBC, TD, BNS , BMO and NA.

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Dividend / Share (C$)

3.51 3.64 3.80 3.94 4.30 4.66 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM

Adjusted Earnings / Share (C$) Adjusted Return on Equity(2) (% ) Dividend Payout Ratio (% )

7.57 7.98 8.65 8.94 9.45 9.98 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 46.3 45.6 43.9 44.0 45.5 46.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016 22.8 22.9 20.9 19.9 19.8 18.5 17.2 16.9 15.7 15.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average

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SLIDE 23

Improving Credit Performance & Strong Capital Position

Gross Impaired Loans Ratio (bps)

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Loan Loss Ratio (bps) Basel III CET 1 Ratio (% ) Total Capital Ratio (% )

44 38 27 32 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016 60 53 53 55 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016

(1)

Peer Average includes RBC, TD, BNS , BMO and NA.

9.4 10.3 10.8 10.9 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.3 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average 14.6 15.5 15.0 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.3 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average

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SLIDE 24

Disciplined Capital Deployment

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(1) Last t welve mont hs as of July 31, 2016

Adjusted Earnings $4.0B LTM

(1)

Organic Growth

  • High priority
  • Focused on operational

investment

  • Deeper client relationships

Acquisitions

  • S

elective acquisitions to support strategic priorities

  • Consistent with defined risk

appetite

  • Moving to higher end of 40-

50% dividend payout ratio

  • S

hare repurchase program in place (up to 2%

  • f
  • utstanding)

Strong Capital Generation  flexibility Return to S hareholders

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SLIDE 25

PrivateBancorp Acquisition

PrivateBancorp Consideration

  • June 29, 2016, CIBC announced that it had entered into definitive agreement to

acquire PrivateBancorp, Inc. (NAS DAQ: PVTB) and its subsidiary, The PrivateBank

  • PrivateBancorp is a high-quality, Chicago-based middle market commercial bank with

private banking and wealth management capabilities

  • CIBC will pay US

$18.80 in cash and 0.3657 of a CIBC common share for each share of PrivateBancorp common stock

  • Based on the June 28, 2016 closing price of CIBC’ s common shares on the NYS

E of US $77.11, the total transaction value is approximately US $3.8 billion or C$4.9 billion

Announced

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Closing

  • Expected in the first calendar quarter of 2017, subj ect to customary closing

conditions, regulatory approvals, and approvals of PrivateBancorp’ s common shareholders

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SLIDE 26

CIBC Contacts

JOHN FERREN, SENIOR VICE-PRESIDENT Email: John.Ferren@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-861-5743

SELL-SIDE ANALYSTS, CONTACT:

JASON PATCHETT, SENIOR DIRECTOR Email: Jason.Patchett@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-980-8691

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, CONTACT:

ALICE DUNNING, SENIOR DIRECTOR Email: Alice.Dunning@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-861-8870

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