Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank
Q3 2016
S eptember 2016
Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank Q3 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Building a Strong, Innovative and Relationship-Based Bank Q3 2016 S eptember 2016 2 Forward-Looking Statements From t ime t o t ime, we make writ t en or oral forward-looking st at ement s wit hin t he meaning of cert ain securit ies laws,
S eptember 2016
From t ime t o t ime, we make writ t en or oral forward-looking st at ement s wit hin t he meaning of cert ain securit ies laws, including in t his present at ion, in ot her filings wit h Canadian securit ies regulat ors or t he U.S . S ecurit ies and Exchange Commission and in ot her communicat ions. All such st at ement s are made pursuant t o t he “ safe harbour” provisions of, and are int ended t o be forward-looking st at ement s under applicable Canadian and U.S . securit ies legislat ion, including t he U.S . Privat e S ecurit ies Lit igat ion Reform Act of 1995. These st at ement s include, but are not limit ed t o, st at ement s made about our operat ions, business lines, financial condit ion, risk management , priorit ies, t arget s, ongoing obj ect ives, st rat egies and out look for calendar year 2016 and subsequent periods. Forward-looking st at ement s are t ypically ident ified by t he words “ believe” , “ expect ” , “ ant icipat e” , “ int end” , “ est imat e” , “ forecast ” , “ t arget ” , “ obj ect ive” and ot her similar expressions or fut ure or condit ional verbs such as “ will” , “ should” , “ would” and “ could” . By t heir nat ure, t hese st at ement s require us t o make assumpt ions and are subj ect t o inherent risks and uncert aint ies t hat may be general or specific. A variet y of fact ors, many of which are beyond our cont rol, affect our operat ions, performance and result s, and could cause act ual result s t o differ mat erially from t he expect at ions expressed in any of our forward-looking st at ement s. These fact ors include: credit , market , liquidit y, st rat egic, insurance, operat ional, reput at ion and legal, regulat ory and environment al risk; t he effect iveness and adequacy of our risk management and valuat ion models and processes; legislat ive or regulat ory development s in t he j urisdict ions where we operat e, including t he Dodd-Frank Wall S t reet Reform and Consumer Prot ect ion Act and t he regulat ions issued and to be issued t hereunder, t he U.S . Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act and regulat ory reforms in t he Unit ed Kingdom and Europe, t he Basel Commit t ee on Banking S upervision’ s global st andards for capit al and liquidit y reform, and t hose relat ing t o t he payment s syst em in Canada; amendment s t o, and int erpret at ions of, risk-based capit al guidelines and report ing inst ruct ions, and int erest rat e and liquidit y regulat ory guidance; t he resolut ion of legal and regulat ory proceedings and relat ed mat t ers; t he effect of changes t o account ing st andards, rules and int erpret at ions; changes in our est imat es
int ernat ional conflict s and t he war on t error; nat ural disast ers, public healt h emergencies, disrupt ions t o public infrast ruct ure and ot her cat ast rophic event s; reliance
securit y risks which may include t heft of asset s, unaut horized access t o sensit ive informat ion, or operat ional disrupt ion; social media risk; losses incurred as a result of int ernal or ext ernal fraud; ant i-money laundering; t he accuracy and complet eness of informat ion provided t o us concerning client s and count erpart ies; t he failure of t hird part ies t o comply wit h t heir obligat ions t o us and our affiliat es or associat es; int ensifying compet it ion from est ablished compet it ors and new ent rant s in t he financial services indust ry including t hrough int ernet and mobile banking; t echnological change; global capit al market act ivit y; changes in monet ary and economic policy; currency value and int erest rat e fluct uat ions, including as a result of oil price volat ilit y; general business and economic condit ions worldwide, as well as in Canada, t he U.S . and ot her count ries where we have operat ions, including increasing Canadian household debt levels and Europe’ s sovereign debt crisis; our success in developing and int roducing new product s and services, expanding exist ing dist ribut ion channels, developing new dist ribut ion channels and realizing increased revenue from t hese channels; changes in client spending and saving habit s; our abilit y t o at t ract and ret ain key employees and execut ives; our abilit y t o successfully execut e
not exhaust ive of t he fact ors t hat may affect any of our forward-looking st at ement s. These and ot her fact ors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking st at ement s. Any forward-looking st at ement s cont ained in t his present at ion represent the views of management only as of t he dat e hereof and are present ed for t he purpose of assist ing our shareholders and financial analyst s in underst anding our financial posit ion, obj ect ives and priorit ies and ant icipat ed financial performance as at and for t he periods ended on t he dat es present ed, and may not be appropriat e for ot her purposes. We do not undert ake t o updat e any forward-looking st at ement t hat is cont ained in t his present at ion or in ot her communicat ions except as required by law. Invest or Relat ions cont act s: John Ferren, S enior Vice-President 416 980-2088 Invest or Relat ions Fax Number 416 980-5028 Visit t he Invest or Relat ions sect ion at www.cibc.com 2
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trategy and Performance
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GDP Growth (% )1 2015 Canadian GDP by Industry2 10-Year Average GDP Growth Rate1 Government Net Debt to GDP1
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Canada United St ates France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average 20% 11% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 4% 3% 10% Finance, Insurance & Real Est ate Manufacturing Wholesale & Ret ail Trade Scientific, Technical & Educational Serv. Public Admin & Utilities Mining, O&G Extraction Construction Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing Information & Cultural Industries Other 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 1.4%
0.5% 1.3% 0.8%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada United St ates France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average
FY2016E3 Germany 1.6 U.K. 1.6 U.S . 1.5 France 1.4 Canada 1.2 G6 Avg. 1.2 It aly 0.8 Japan 0.5 2015 It aly 133.1 Japan 128.5 G6 Avg. 91.7 U.S . 88.5 U.K. 80.8 France 75.5 Germany 43.7 Canada 30.8
1) Source: OECD.Stat 2) Source: StatsCan 3) Source of FY2016 Estimates for GDP Growth: Consensus Economics Inc. Forecasts survey August 8, 2016
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Unemployment Rate (% ) 10-Year Average Unemployment Rate (% )
7.1% 7.0% 9.3% 7.7% 9.1% 4.2% 6.7% 7.3% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average
10-Year Average Net Job Growth (% )
1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8%
0.2% 0.6% 0.4% Canada US France Germany Italy Japan UK G6 Average
Net Job Growth (% )
July 31, 2016 U.K. 4.7 U.S . 1.1 It aly 1.9 Japan 0.8 Canada
France N/ A Germany N/ A G6 Avg. N/ A July 31, 2016 It aly 11.4 France 10.3 G6 Avg. 6.8 Canada 6.9 Germany 6.1 U.K. 4.9 U.S . 4.9 Japan 3.0
1) Source: Bloomberg
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7/ 31/ 16 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K. G6 Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7/ 31/ 16 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K. G6 Average
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Bank of Canada Overnight & Prime Rate (% )1 Debt Service Ratio (Interest only)3,4 (% ) Canadian Home Price Index vs. G62 YoY Change in Household Equity (% )4
8.16 8.82 8.72 7.63 7.36 7.29 7.02 6.83 6.67 6.42 6.27 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2/ 16 Interest Only 7.4 5.5 5.7 2.6 4.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3 3.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada US France Germany Italy Japan U.K.
2015 Germany 123.3 Canada 115.3 U.K. 111.1 U.S . 109.8 Japan 104.7 France 95.7 It aly 80.1
(1) S
(2) S
t at (3) Debt S ervice Rat io = disposable income/ debt service cost (4) S
t at sCan
Aug 2016 BoC Overnight 0.5 Prime 2.7
Indexed to 100 in 2010 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 BoC Overnight rates Prime
Product
Conservative product offerings – generally consist of fixed or variable rate option
Borrowers qualify based on qualifying posted mortgage rate
Underwriting Regulation and Taxation
More exotic offerings (e.g. ARMs, IOs) and a greater proportion of mortgages are variable or adj ustable rate
Borrowers were often qualified using teaser rates
Prepayment penalties are common
Terms usually 5 years or less, renewable at maturity – allows reassessment of credit
Amortization usually 25 years, but can be up to 30 years
Mortgage insurance mandatory if LTV over 80% . Insurance covers full amount
Mortgages can be prepaid without penalty
30 year term most common
Amortizations usually 30 years, but can be up to 50 years
Mortgage insurance often used to cover portion of LTV over 80%
Interest is generally not tax deductible, so there is an incentive to take on less mortgage debt
Lenders have recourse to both the borrower and the property in most provinces
July 2016: BC imposed a 15% tax on foreign buyers of residential property in the Greater Vancouver regional district, effective Aug. 2/ 16. In addition, the BC government amended the Vancouver Charter to allow the city to implement a tax on vacant homes.
Interest is tax deductible, creating an incentive to take on more mortgage debt
Lenders have limited recourse in most j urisdictions
Canada United States
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Average Oil Price – WTI (US$) Average C$/US$ Average Natural Gas Price (US$) US-Canada Trade Balance2 (US$B)
$66.25 $72.36 $99.75 $62.09 $79.61 $95.11 $94.15 $98.05 $92.91 $48.76 $41.06 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16 $6.98 $7.12 $8.90 $4.16 $4.38 $4.03 $2.83 $3.73 $4.26 $2.63 $2.28 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16 $0.88 $0.94 $0.94 $0.88 $0.97 $1.01 $1.00 $0.97 $0.91 $0.78 $0.76 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jun-16
(1) S
(2) Negat ive value reflect great er import s of Canadian goods int o t he US t han export of US goods
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trategy and Performance
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Liquidity Requirements Other Capital Requirements
Risk-Based Capital Ratios
tandardized Approach Credit Risk/ Capital Floors (document out f or consult at ion)
be tied to increase in local property prices (consultation document issued in 2016; final rules in place no later than 2017)
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
Banks with less than US $50B in assets do not have to be LCR compliant Net Stable Funding Ratio (Proposed)
relation to the degree of the institution’ s asset illiquidity, as a way of properly mitigating funding risk in banks.
upervision (BCBS ) rules released October 2014. OS FI consultative document released January 2014.
disclosed via MD&A. Minimum NS FR
≥100%
Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) (Proposed)
tability Board November 2015
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9 ECL requires banks t o swit ch their allowance methodology from an incurred loss model t o an expected credit loss model.
FI requires all large Canadian banks t o apply t his new met hodology one year earlier
9 ECL approach, each credit portfolio is segmented int o t hree st ages, of which each st age represent s a different level of relat ive credit risk and requires different levels of coverage: Stage 1 – Credit qualit y at init ial recognition
▪
This st age includes mainly new and good performing account s – allowance of 12-mont h expect ed credit losses Stage 2 – Account s for which credit risk has increased significantly since init ial recognition
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This st age includes mainly account s whose credit qualit y (e.g., Beacon or risk rating) has deteriorated since origination (e.g., delinquent account s or account s on wat ch list or account s that have experienced a significant drop in the risk rat ing or credit score) - allowance for lifet ime expect ed credit losses (model driven) Stage 3 – Account s for which t here is obj ect ive evidence of impairment
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This st ages includes impaired account s – allowance for lifet ime expect ed credit losses (individual account driven)
and macro-economic fact ors
., banks generally report under U.S . GAAP and will not t ransition t o IFRS
. banks (that report under U.S . GAAP) are expected t o t ransit ion t o a different expected loss model in which all loans are essentially t reated as st age 2 / st age 3 (i.e. life t ime expected losses). However, t he U.S . GAAP t ransition date is expected t o be aft er t he IFRS 9 ECL dat e
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rating as a trigger for migrations between stages
Current Pract ice: IFRS 9: Business & Gov’t portfolios Watchlist Risk Rating at
Impaired Classification Impaired st at us Accounts written-off Stage 1 (No material change in risk rating from
Stage 2 (Significant change in risk rating from
Stage 3 (Obj ective evidence of impairment) Collective Allowance for Non-Impaired Individual Allowance for Impaired
rules for retail loans using delinquency as a trigger for migrations between stages. Note that there are potentially other triggers for migration (e.g. Beacon score)
Current Pract ice: IFRS 9: Retail portfolios Early Stage Delinquent Risk Rating at
Impaired Classification Impaired st at us Accounts written-off Stage 1 (No material change in credit score from
Stage 2 (Significant change in credit score from
Stage 3 (Obj ective evidence of impairment) Collective Allowance for Non-Impaired Collective Allowance for Impaired
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trategy and Performance
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CIBC is a leading Canadian-based financial institution providing a full range of financial products and services in Canada and around the world. We are creating long-term shareholder value by focusing
the future and simplifying our bank.
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Canadian banking centres 1,115 Employees ~44,000 Clients ~11 MM Market capitalization ~$39 B Assets $494 B Assets under Administration (AUA) $1,994 B Assets under Management (AUM) $180 B Adjusted Net income after taxes (NIAT) $4,014MM (LTM) Adjusted return on common shareholders’ equity 18.9% (LTM) Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 10.9%
1 Dat a as of July 31, 2016
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Building a Strong Innovative Relationship-Oriented Bank
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Bank-wide priority
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Improving client experience and efficiency
Harnessing data as an enterprise-wide asset
Making it easier to get things done
Evolving how and where we work
Generating more value from
Providing the right support for
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Key Strategic Initiatives
implify banking centre structure
drive innovation
Key Strategic Initiatives
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trengthen & expand leadership positions in Canada
platform & expand coverage in key sectors globally
clients across CIBC
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Key Strategic Initiatives
implify and optimize business platform
(1)
Present ed under IFRS
(LTM)- For last t welve mont hs ending July 31, 2016.
(2)
Peer Average includes RBC, TD, BNS , BMO and NA.
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Dividend / Share (C$)
3.51 3.64 3.80 3.94 4.30 4.66 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
Adjusted Earnings / Share (C$) Adjusted Return on Equity(2) (% ) Dividend Payout Ratio (% )
7.57 7.98 8.65 8.94 9.45 9.98 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 46.3 45.6 43.9 44.0 45.5 46.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016 22.8 22.9 20.9 19.9 19.8 18.5 17.2 16.9 15.7 15.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average
Gross Impaired Loans Ratio (bps)
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Loan Loss Ratio (bps) Basel III CET 1 Ratio (% ) Total Capital Ratio (% )
44 38 27 32 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016 60 53 53 55 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016
(1)
Peer Average includes RBC, TD, BNS , BMO and NA.
9.4 10.3 10.8 10.9 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.3 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average 14.6 15.5 15.0 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.3 2013 2014 2015 Q3/ 16 CM Peer Average
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(1) Last t welve mont hs as of July 31, 2016
(1)
Organic Growth
investment
Acquisitions
elective acquisitions to support strategic priorities
appetite
50% dividend payout ratio
hare repurchase program in place (up to 2%
Strong Capital Generation flexibility Return to S hareholders
PrivateBancorp Consideration
acquire PrivateBancorp, Inc. (NAS DAQ: PVTB) and its subsidiary, The PrivateBank
private banking and wealth management capabilities
$18.80 in cash and 0.3657 of a CIBC common share for each share of PrivateBancorp common stock
E of US $77.11, the total transaction value is approximately US $3.8 billion or C$4.9 billion
Announced
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Closing
conditions, regulatory approvals, and approvals of PrivateBancorp’ s common shareholders
JOHN FERREN, SENIOR VICE-PRESIDENT Email: John.Ferren@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-861-5743
SELL-SIDE ANALYSTS, CONTACT:
JASON PATCHETT, SENIOR DIRECTOR Email: Jason.Patchett@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-980-8691
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, CONTACT:
ALICE DUNNING, SENIOR DIRECTOR Email: Alice.Dunning@cibc.com Phone: +1 416-861-8870
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