Briefing on Market Performance Mark Rothleder Director, Market Analysis and Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session November 1-2, 2010
Markets continue to perform well. Key observations: Prices remain competitive and consistent with market conditions Price convergence improves as seasonal flexibility increases Exceptional dispatches remain at low levels Congestion revenue rights (CRR) revenue adequacy continues to improve Price corrections decreased Areas of focus: Improve market convergence Improve forecasting Provide for dispatch flexibility Slide 2
Frequency and magnitude of 5-minute price volatility decreased as seasonal online ramping capability increased. • Price volatility reduced in summer as more flexible resources committed. 3.0% • Price volatility in July and August due to fires affecting transmission 2.5% Percent of real-time intervals 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2010 $250 to $500 $500 to $750 $750 to $1000 $1000 to LMP Slide 3
Intermittency of wind production contributes to real-time price volatility Wind forecast gap resulting in 250MW-300MW loss of supply Slide 4
Price convergence between markets improved in last quarter. Average Hourly PGAE LAP Prices Increased online resource flexibility during summer improved convergence $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Day-ahead Hour-ahead Real-time 2010 Slide 5
Day ahead exceptional dispatch volumes continue to decrease as more operational constraints are incorporated into the market. 35 30 Approx. 3% of total daily energy 25 Thousands of MWh Per Day 20 15 Approx. 1% of total daily energy 10 5 0 -5 Implemented additional minimum Implemented additional outage-based -10 online constraint. Minimum online commitment constraints. -15 1-Jul 17-Jul 2-Aug 18-Aug 3-Sep 19-Sep 5-Oct 21-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 8-Dec 24-Dec 9-Jan 25-Jan 10-Feb 26-Feb 14-Mar 30-Mar 15-Apr 1-May 17-May 2-Jun 18-Jun 4-Jul 20-Jul 5-Aug 21-Aug 6-Sep 22-Sep Day-Ahead Real-Time INC Real-Time DEC Slide 6
Monthly congestion revenue rights revenue adequacy stabilized. Note: Net balancing account includes auction revenues Slide 7
Frequency of price corrections continues to decrease. Slide 8
Publishing day-ahead market on time every day for last two months. 2010 DA Publish Time 15:50 15:30 15:10 14:50 14:30 Time 14:10 13:50 13:30 13:10 12:50 12:30 12:10 11:50 Date Slide 9
Real-time market success rate reduced slightly. Hour-Ahead and Real-Time Unit Comimttment Success Rate 100.00% 99.50% Small increase in failures due to: 99.00% 1) software infeasible solutions Percentage of Successful Completions 2) database related issues 98.50% 98.00% 97.50% 97.00% 96.50% 96.00% . 95.50% HASP RTUC Monthly 95.00% Performance % Success Fa % Success January 99.06% 97.09% Hour Ahead Scheduling Process Real Time Unit Commitment February 98.81% 97.12% Hour Ahead March 99.33% 96.91% Scheduling Process (HASP) April 99.58% 98.66% Real Time Unit May 100.00% 99.42% Commitment Process (RTUC) June 99.58% 99.03% July 99.06% 98.88% August 99.87% 99.42% September 99.17% 98.94% October(thru 10/23) 99.60% 99.78% Slide 10
Real-time market completions Real Time Dispatch Success Rate 100.00% 99.80% • Real-time dispatch successful completion declined due to some database timeouts. 99.60% Percentage of Successful Completions • Database was split in October to address 99.40% 99.20% 99.00% 98.80% . 98.60% Real-Time Monthly 98.40% Performance % Success January February March April May June July August September October January 99.40% Real Time Dispatch February 99.75% March 99.66% Real Time 5 Min Dispatch April Intervals 99.36% May 99.42% June 99.00% July 98.97% August 99.06% September 98.96% October(thru 10/23) 99.70% Slide 11
Areas of focus going forward: Increase robustness of system Increase the flexibility of the market to respond to changes in conditions Improve load forecasting capabilities Slide 12
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