Briefing on Market Performance Mark Rothleder Director, Market - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Briefing on Market Performance Mark Rothleder Director, Market - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 13, 2023 173 likes •297 views

Briefing on Market Performance Mark Rothleder Director, Market Analysis and Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session November 1-2, 2010 Markets continue to perform well. Key observations: Prices remain competitive and

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Briefing on Market Performance

Mark Rothleder Director, Market Analysis and Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session November 1-2, 2010

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  • Key observations:
  • Prices remain competitive and consistent with market conditions
  • Price convergence improves as seasonal flexibility increases
  • Exceptional dispatches remain at low levels
  • Congestion revenue rights (CRR) revenue adequacy continues to

improve

  • Price corrections decreased
  • Areas of focus:
  • Improve market convergence
  • Improve forecasting
  • Provide for dispatch flexibility

Markets continue to perform well.

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0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2010 Percent of real-time intervals $250 to $500 $500 to $750 $750 to $1000 $1000 to LMP

Frequency and magnitude of 5-minute price volatility decreased as seasonal online ramping capability increased.

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  • Price volatility reduced in summer as

more flexible resources committed.

  • Price volatility in July and August

due to fires affecting transmission

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Intermittency of wind production contributes to real-time price volatility

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Wind forecast gap resulting in 250MW-300MW loss of supply

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Price convergence between markets improved in last quarter.

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Average Hourly PGAE LAP Prices

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2010 Day-ahead Hour-ahead Real-time

Increased online resource flexibility during summer improved convergence

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SLIDE 6

Day ahead exceptional dispatch volumes continue to decrease as more operational constraints are incorporated into the market.

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  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1-Jul 17-Jul 2-Aug 18-Aug 3-Sep 19-Sep 5-Oct 21-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 8-Dec 24-Dec 9-Jan 25-Jan 10-Feb 26-Feb 14-Mar 30-Mar 15-Apr 1-May 17-May 2-Jun 18-Jun 4-Jul 20-Jul 5-Aug 21-Aug 6-Sep 22-Sep

Thousands of MWh Per Day

Day-Ahead Real-Time INC Real-Time DEC

  • Approx. 1% of total daily energy
  • Approx. 3% of total daily energy

Implemented additional minimum

  • nline constraint.

Implemented additional outage-based Minimum online commitment constraints.

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SLIDE 7

Monthly congestion revenue rights revenue adequacy stabilized.

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Note: Net balancing account includes auction revenues

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Frequency of price corrections continues to decrease.

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SLIDE 9

Publishing day-ahead market on time every day for last two months.

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11:50 12:10 12:30 12:50 13:10 13:30 13:50 14:10 14:30 14:50 15:10 15:30 15:50

Time Date

2010 DA Publish Time

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SLIDE 10

Real-time market success rate reduced slightly.

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Hour Ahead Scheduling Process (HASP) Real Time Unit Commitment Process (RTUC) . Small increase in failures due to: 1) software infeasible solutions 2) database related issues

95.00% 95.50% 96.00% 96.50% 97.00% 97.50% 98.00% 98.50% 99.00% 99.50% 100.00%

Percentage of Successful Completions

Hour-Ahead and Real-Time Unit Comimttment Success Rate

Hour Ahead Scheduling Process Real Time Unit Commitment

% SuccessFa % Success

January

99.06% 97.09%

February

98.81% 97.12%

March

99.33% 96.91%

April

99.58% 98.66%

May

100.00% 99.42%

June

99.58% 99.03%

July

99.06% 98.88%

August

99.87% 99.42%

September

99.17% 98.94%

October(thru 10/23)

99.60% 99.78%

Monthly Performance

HASP RTUC

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SLIDE 11

Real-time market completions

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Real Time 5 Min Dispatch Intervals .

  • Real-time dispatch successful completion

declined due to some database timeouts.

  • Database was split in October to address

98.40% 98.60% 98.80% 99.00% 99.20% 99.40% 99.60% 99.80% 100.00% January February March April May June July August September October

Percentage of Successful Completions

Real Time Dispatch Success Rate

Real Time Dispatch

% Success

January

99.40%

February

99.75%

March

99.66%

April

99.36%

May

99.42%

June

99.00%

July

98.97%

August

99.06%

September

98.96%

October(thru 10/23)

99.70%

Real-Time

Monthly Performance

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Areas of focus going forward:

  • Increase robustness of system
  • Increase the flexibility of the market to respond to changes

in conditions

  • Improve load forecasting capabilities

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