BOOM ROGER S CONRAD CAPITALIST TIMES DC AAII, JANUARY 2015 OUR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BIG GAINS AND HIGH YIELDS FROM THE GREAT AMERICAN ENERGY BOOM

ROGER S CONRAD CAPITALIST TIMES DC AAII, JANUARY 2015

OUR ADVISORIES: COMPREHENSIVE AND CONCISE

CAPITALIST TIMES—GROWTH AND INCOME ADVICE ACROSS THE INVESTMENT SPECTRUM. CONRAD’S UTILITY INVESTOR—COVERAGE 212 ESSENTIAL SERVICE COMPANIES, PORTFOLIOS FOR CONSERVATIVE, AGGRESSIVE, DRIPS ENERGY AND INCOME ADVISOR—FOCUSED ADVICE ON ENERGY UPSTREAM, MIDSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM, FROM MLPS AND SUPER OILS TO CANADIAN/AUSTRALIAN ENERGY

WHAT WE’LL COVER

• WHY AMERICA’S ENERGY BOOM ISN’T OVER
• HOW TO LIVE WITH AND PROFIT FROM LOW

ENERGY PRICES NOW

• BEST AND WORST BETS IN UPSTREAM,

MIDSTREAM, UTILITIES AND RENEWABLE ENERGY

GAS: NO GLOBAL MARKET, YET

THE OTHER ENERGY CRASH

NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY ECONOMICS 101

• ALL BUSINESS IS LOCAL
• PRICE SPREADS DRIVE PROFITS
• PRICE DROP STRESSES SECTOR
• SUB-$50/BARREL OIL MAY LAST A WHILE
• GUIDANCE CALLS INDICATE COMPANIES STILL

BETTING ON $65-$70 OIL

• MUST DIFFERENTIATE UPSTREAM, MIDSTREAM,

DOWNSTREAM

• SCALE IS CRITICAL
• AVERAGE DOESN’T CUT IT: BUY STOCKS

ENERGY: THE LONG RUN

NATURAL GAS: A GROWTH INDUSTRY

AMERICAN ENERGY INDEPENDENCE: BACK TO THE FUTURE

BASIN ECONOMICS

THE WEAKEST LINKS

2015 OUTLOOK: CYCLE BASICS

SUB $50 OIL: WHO WINS?

WINNERS

• LOW COST PRODUCERS
• INDUSTRY COMES TO US
• PETROCHEMICALS AND

REFINING

• DISTRIBUTORS: PROPANE
• AIRLINES AND TRANSPORT
• REGULATED ELECTRIC AND

NATURAL GAS UTILITIES

• BIG PRODUCERS, BIG

MIDSTREAM LOSERS

• HIGH COST PRODUCERS
• SMALL AND LEVERAGED

PRODUCERS

• MIDSTREAM DEPENDENT

ON SMALL AND LEVERAGED PRODUCERS

• MAJOR PROJECTS

DEPENDENT ON $100 OIL

• GOVERNMENTS

DEPENDING ON $100 OIL

ENERGY AND INCOME ADVISOR

• NOT PERMA BULLS ON ENERGY PRICES
• LONG AND NEAR-TERM FOCUS
• PREPARING FOR PRICE DECLINE SINCE DEC 2013
• COVERAGE UNIVERSE 300+ NAMES: UPSTREAM,

MIDSTREAM, DOWNSTREAM

• 3 MODEL PORTFOLIOS FOR CONSERVATIVE AND

AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS

• EACH BI-WEEKLY ISSUE A FULL REPORT
• MONTHLY CHATS THAT LAST AS LONG AS THERE ARE

QUESTIONS

• ALERTS, WEBINARS AND WEEKLY UPDATES

THEY’RE STOCKS, NOT BONDS

Year S5TELS DJUA BBREIT ALERIAN MLP TNX 2014 3.0 30.7 29.1 4.8

• 28.2

2013 11.5 12.7 2.4 27.6 72.3 2012 18.3 1.6 18.6 4.4

• 6.1

2011 6.6 19.7 8.1 13.9

• 43.4

2010 19.0 6.5 29.5 35.6

• 14.0

2009 8.9 12.5 29.2 75.7 71.3 2008

• 30.5
• 27.8
• 37.9
• 37.1
• 44.4

2007 11.9 20.1

• 17.9

12.5

• 14.3

2006 35.9 16.6 33.9 25.9 7.2 2005

• 5.6

25.1 11.6 6.3 4.3 2004 19.8 30.2 32.2 16.7

• 1.0

2003 6.8 29.3 36.7 44.5 11.5 2002

• 34.1
• 23.4

1.4

• 3.4
• 24.1

EPICENTER OF A BOOM

CANADA’S SHALE PLAYS

PRODUCERS: EASY DOES IT

• DEEP DECLINES BUT 2015 PROJECTIONS STILL

BASED ON $60-$70 OIL AND HIGHER

• MORE DIVIDEND CUTS LIKELY: DANGER

GREATEST WITH PREVIOUS CUTTERS

• TAKE UNDERS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGH

PREMIUM TAKEOVERS

• OPPORTUNITIES FOR COMPANIES WITH

SCALE, BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH

• BE PREPARED FOR DECLINES IF YOU BUY

PRODUCERS: BONDS ARE BETTER

Company Best Security Cusip Number Price (% of Par)* Yield to Maturity Vol ($ mil) Call Provisions Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK) 6.5% Senior Notes of 8/15/2017 165167BS5 106.000 4.0 660.4 make whole at 50 pt premium Energen Corp (NYSE: EGN) 4.625% Senior Notes of 9/1/2021 29265NAS7 90.250 6.5 400.0 make whole at 30 pt premium Legacy Reserves (NSDQ: LGCY) 8% Senior Notes

• f 12/1/2020

52471TAB3 85.375 11.5 300.0 make whole at 50 pt premium Linn Energy (NSDQ: LINE) 6.25% Senior Notes of 11/1/2019 536022AJ5 83.750 10.7 1800.0 make whole at 50 pt premium Memorial Prod Partners (NSDQ: MEMP) 7.625% Senior Notes of 5/1/2021 586049AB4 83.280 11.5 700.0 make whole at 50 pt premium Vanguard Natural Res (NYSE: VNR) 7.875% Senior Notes of 4/1/2020 92205CAA1 89.494 10.5 550.0 make whole at 50 pt premium

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEY)—STABLE LNG

YIELD = 9.3% 12-MO DIVIDEND GROWTH = 33.7% PAYOUT RATIO = 77.2% DEBT ASSETS = 15.8% LNG CONTRACTS SHIELD FROM OIL PRICE CRASH CAPEX MANAGEABLE @$1.4 BIL/YR, NO OUTSIDE CAPITAL NEEDS CATALYSTS: 1. AUSTRALIA LNG STARTUPS 2. #2.75 BIL ACQUISITION OF APACHE STAKES IN WHEATSTONE, KITIMATT LNG 3. INDIA MOU FOR LNG FACILITIES MOODY’S AFFIRMS STABLE OUTLOOK AFTER MAJOR DEALS, SHELVING OF FLNG PLANS AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR A HEADWIND NEXT EARNINGS FEB 18 (CONFIRMED)

MIDSTREAM: TIME TO BUY?

• ALERIAN MLP INFRA: -21.3% SINCE 8/29/14
• LITTLE DIRECT COMMODITY EXPOSURE
• DANGER IS TO VOLUMES, NEW PROJECT

DEVELOPMENT, CONTRACTS

• G&P ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
• WIDE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS = DEMAND FOR

CAPACITY LONG-TERM STILL THERE

• SIZE, INDISPENSABLE ASSETS, LOW COST BASINS

ETP: MULTIPLE BASINS

ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS (NYSE: ETP)— STRONG MIDSTREAM

YIELD = 6.6% 12-MO DIST GROWTH = 7.7% RATE ACCELERATES TO 2 CENTS/QTR IN AUGUST, MAINTAINS IN NOV Q3 COVERAGE RATIO = 1.1-TO-1 DEBT/ASSETS = 39.1% ENT VAL/CASH FLOW 17% DISC AMZI BUSINESS SEGMENTS: INTRASTATE TRANSP/STGE (11.1%), INTERSTATE T&S (23%), MIDSTREAM (12%), LIQUIDS T&S (12%). SUNOCO (21%), RETAIL MARKETING (12%) GROWTH BASINS: EAGLE FORD, MARCELLUS, BAKKEN, PERMIAN 3-YEAR REVENUE GRTH = 675.4% ETE DROPDOWNS AND ACQUISITIONS SPUR GROWTH NEXT EARNINGS FEB 19 (EXPECTED)

NUSTAR GP HOLDINGS LLC (NYSE: NSH): GP RETURNING TO GROWTH

YIELD = 6.9% LAST DISTRIBUTION INCREASE = NOVEMBER 2012 REVENUE BASE = 50% PIPELINES, 46% GLOBAL STORAGE, 4% RELATED MARKETING, RUN BY NUSTAR ENERGY OIL PRICE SENSITIVITY = MINIMAL STORAGE CONTRACTS RENEWING IDR STRUCTURE = NOW AT MAXIMUM 25% OF NUSTAR ENERGY CASH FLOW OVER $.60 PER QUARTER OWNS 12.9% COMMON UNITS OF NS 0% 12-M0 GRTH OUTSTANDING UNITS LP DEBT/ASSETS = 53.6% NO NUSTAR ENERGY DEBT MATURITIES BEFORE APRIL 2018 LP Q3 DISTRIBUTION COVERAGE = 1.032- TO-1. TWO QUARTERS CONSECUTIVE BETTER THAN 1-TO-1. FITCH AFFIRMS CREDIT OUTLOOK STABLE TAKEOVER POSSIBILITIES NEXT EARNINGS JAN 30 (CONFIRMED)

A WELL DIVERSIFIED COMPANY

BEYOND KEYSTONE XL

TRANSCANADA CORP (NYSE: TRP)—MORE THAN KEYSTONE XL

YIELD = 3.8% 12-MO DIVIDEND GROWTH = 4.4% PAYOUT RATIO = 80% DEBT/ASSETS = 47.8% ANALYSTS COOL BUT WARMING UP: 8 BUY, 5 HOLD, 3 SELL INSIDERS NET BUYERS LAST 6 MONTHS $46 BIL COMMERCIALLY SECURED PROJECTS UNDERWAY, 100% CONTRACTED OR COST OF SERVICE $38 BIL NOT KEYSTONE, $13 BIL SMALL AND NON-CONTROVERSIAL $15 BIL 3-YEAR CAPEX EXPECTED CAGR CASH FLOW 8- 10%/YEAR NEXT THREE YEARS ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES AS RIVALS WEAKEN NEXT EARNINGS FEB 20 (EXPECTED)

UTILITIES: LOW RISK, HIGH VALUATIONS

• CLASS OF 2002: DEBT/RISK AVERSE
• WHOLESALE RETREAT: DUK, PPL, NOW AEP
• REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT POSITIVE
• PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES TO INVEST IN

INFRASTRUCTURE

• LOW ENERGY PRICES HELP
• SOLAR POWER: OPPORTUNITIES TRUMP THREATS
• REGULATED CAPEX DRIVES GROWTH
• DJUA: P/E HIGHEST SINCE 2000, YIELD 3.2%

CONRAD’S UTILITY INVESTOR

• NOT PERMABULLS: 6 SELLS IN 2014, AVERAGE

PROFIT 50% IN 11 MONTHS

• 212 DIVIDEND-PAYING, ESSENTIAL SERVICE

COMPANIES: ALWAYS SOMETHING TO BUY

• CONSERVATIVE, AGGRESSIVE, DIVIDEND

REINVESTMENT MODEL PORTFOLIOS

• ENDANGERED DIVIDENDS LIST
• 2 BEST BUYS EVERY MONTH
• 29 YEARS EXPERIENCE/KNOWLEDGE OF SECTOR

• UTILITIES: THE LONG PLAY IN SOLAR

COMPARING YIELDS

2 4 6 8 10 12 DJUA ALERIAN S&P TEL BBREIT Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-15

AES CORP (NYSE: AES)— UTILITY LAGGARD TO LEADER

FROM LEADER IN 2013 (37.3%) TO LAGGARD IN 2O14 (-3.8%): FOREIGN EXPOSURE YIELD = 3.1% 12-MO DIVIDEND GROWTH= 100% PROJECTED 5-YR GROWTH = 10%/YR Q3 PAYOUT RATIO = 31.2% DEBT/ASSETS = 52.1% PRICE/SALES = 0.6 OIL PRICE SENSITIVITY = MINIMAL CAISSE BUYS 15% OF REGULATED INDIANA UTILITY TO FUND CAPEX 2015 GUIDANCE = $1.30-$1.40/SH 5-YEAR CASH FLOW GRTH = 10-15%/YR % EARNINGS: US (23%), ANDES (20%), BRAZIL (14%), MCAC (21%), EMEA (20%) NEW PROJECT CAPEX PRIMARY DRIVER ASSET SALES LARGELY COMPLETED MOODY’S AFFIRMS STABLE OUTLOOK TAKEOVER POSSIBILITIES NEXT EARNINGS FEB 26 (EXPECTED)

WHOLESALE POWER ECONOMICS

• LOW NATURAL GAS PRICES MEAN SOFT

WHOLESALE POWER PRICES IN 2015

• ENERGY EFFICIENCY, DISTRIBUTED

GENERATION REDUCE GRID DEMAND GROWTH

• CAPACITY RETIREMENTS TIGHTEN SUPPLIES

OVER NEXT 3-5 YEARS

• SIZE, FLEXIBILITY, CONTRACTS ARE CRITICAL
• CONTRACTED RENEWABLES BEST

OIL AND POWER DON’T MIX MUCH

THE DUCK CHART

ABENGOA YIELD (NYSE: ABY)—GLOBAL HIGH GROWTH YIELDCO

YIELD = 3.39% PRICE/BOOK = 1.24 PROJECTED DIV 2015 = $1.60/SH, YIELD 5.7% AT RECENT PRICE 2016DCF GROWTH 20-25% NO DEBT MATURITIES UNTIL NOV 2019 CURRENT ASSETS: 1. 710 MW RENEWABLES 2. 1,018 MILES POWER LINES 3. 300 MW CONVENTIONAL PWR PARENT ABENGOA (SPAIN: NASDAQ: ABGB) OWNS 51% OF COMPANY AND IS COMMITTED TO LONG-TERM PLAN OF DROP DOWNS AS DEVELOPS NEW EIG GLOBAL VENTURE TO INVEST $9.5 BIL IN POWER PROJECTS PROJECTS FULLY CONTRACTED, AVERAGE LIFE 25 YEARS RAISED 2015 GUIDANCE NOV 14 NEXT EARNINGS JAN 20 (CONFIRMED)

ABENGOA YIELD INITIAL ASSETS

NRG ENERGY (NYSE: NRG): MISUNDERSTOOD AND VERY CHEAP AGAIN

YIELD: 2.10% 12-MO DIVIDEND GROWTH: 16.7% PRICE/BOOK VALUE: 0.91 PRICE/SALES: 0.6 NRG YIELD : 2.8% YIELD, 16.7% DIVIDEND GROWTH, 1.4 P/BV Q3 CASH FLOW GROWTH: +1.4% 1. WHOLESALE: -10.4% (59.3%) 2. RETAIL: +8.9% (18.5%) 3. NRG YIELD: +35.9% (13.9%) 4. RENEWABLES: +120% (8.3%) NRG YIELD SPINOFF GROWTH WITH ACQUISITIONS/DROP DOWNS UTILITY AND DISTRIBUTED SOLAR $1 BIL CO2 CAPTURE PROJECT 52 MW BASELOAD POWER NATIONWIDE PROTECTS AGAINST POTENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY BUBBLE NEXT EARNINGS: FEB 27 (EXPECTED)

CONTACT US

• SERVICE@CAPITALISTTIMES.COM
• CALL SHERRY 1-877-302-0749, 9-5 EST, M-F
• WWW.CAPITALISTTIMES.COM ($79/YEAR)
• WWW.CONRADSUTILITYINVESTOR.COM ($99/YR)
• WWW.ENERGYANDINCOMEADVISOR.COM ($649)

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