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BOND INVESTORS PRESENTATION APRIL 30TH, 2018
BOND INVESTORS PRESENTATION APRIL 30 TH , 2018 C ONFIDENTIAL AND P - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BOND INVESTORS PRESENTATION APRIL 30 TH , 2018 C ONFIDENTIAL AND P ROPRIETARY 1 D ISCLAIMER This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the securities
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BOND INVESTORS PRESENTATION APRIL 30TH, 2018
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DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the securities laws of other jurisdictions. In some cases, these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the words "believes", "estimates", "aims", "targets", "anticipates", "expects", "intends", "plans", "continues", "ongoing", "potential", "product", "projects", "guidance", "seeks", "may", "will", "could", "would", "should" or, in each case, their negative, or other variations or comparable terminology or by discussions of strategies, plans, objectives, targets, goals, future events or intentions. These forward-looking statements include matters that are not historical facts. They appear in a number of places throughout this presentation and include statements regarding our intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, our results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, competition in areas of our business, outlook and growth prospects, strategies and the industry in which we operate. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that our actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which we operate may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and the development of the industry in which we operate are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in subsequent
Annual Report entitled "Risk Factors". Any forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on plans, estimates and projections as they are currently available to
statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or to persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements referred to above and contained elsewhere in this presentation and in our Annual Report.
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2017
1 2 3 4 5
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4 56.3 68.8 34.0 29.3 2016 2017 Cash EBITDA EBITDA
PROFITABLE ORGANIC GROWTH LEADING TO STRONG DELEVERAGING
Total Cash Revenues EBITDA and Cash EBITDA Margins Portfolio Acquisitions and 120m Gross ERC Net Debt on Cash EBITDA (LTM)
83.4 93.2 8.5 18.3 91.9 111.5 2016 2017 Gross Collections Servicing +21% 49 45 2016 2017 Portfolio Acquisitions 4.3x 4.0x 3.2x Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 (1.1)x (€m) 61% (€m) 49% 62% 41% (€m) 12% 25% Servicing % in Net Revenues Corresponding Margins 377 368 120m Gross ERC
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MAINTAINED DISCIPLINED PRICING POLICY IN A GROWING BUT COMPETITIVE FRENCH MARKET
1) Based on management estimate.
Estimated Market Size(1) (€m)
Historical Track Record of Purchasing Discipline
has overall doubled in terms of purchase price since last year
sales transactions, partly incentivised by
purchasing discipline and favoured
consistently did throughout
history
~100 ~200 2016 2017 51 deals 44 deals – 140 280 420 560 700 20 40 60 80 100 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Yearly Investments Cumulative Investments Over €700M Invested since 1997 Cumulative investment in portfolios (€m) Unattractive risk / reward profile pre-crisis Sale of certain portfolios in ’06-’07 Ability to ramp-up portfolio acquisitions when returns are deemed more appealing 33 38 49 45 Avg. 2010-2012 Avg. 2013-2015 2016 2017
Healthy Purchasing Volumes in 2017 (€m)
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ABILITY TO PURCHASE SELECTIVELY AND FOCUS ON HIGHER QUALITY ASSETS
1) Calculated as total number of deals we bid for divided by total number of transactions seen in the market (51 and 44 respectively in 2016 and 2017).
Case Study 1: Acquisition of a Large Mortgage Portfolio Selective Bidding Approach Case Study 2: Acquisition of a Large Paying Portfolio
# Deals Win Ratio By # Deals Win Ratio By Price 2016 Won 22 56% 61% Lost 17 44% 39% Total 39 100% 100% Bid Ratio(1) 76% 2017 Won 14 50% 44% Lost 14 50% 56% Total 28 100% 100% Bid Ratio(1) 64%
prominent French mortgage lender
investments
with mortgage collateral representing 184% of the total purchase price
consumer loans from a specialist credit institution
investments
estimated ERC Strong Focus on Asset Quality and Risk Adjusted Returns
selectively, focusing on:
data sets and models
returns over market share
close to those of last year, whilst protecting our returns
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CONTINUED STRONG INVESTMENT RETURNS AND OUTPERFORMANCE OVER TIME PROVEN DISCIPLINE AND CONSERVATISM AT DUE DILIGENCE
actuals and forecasts
2.8x 2.6x 2.1x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 0.8x 0.6x 0.2x 2.0x 2.1x 2.4x 3.0x 3.0x 2.5x 2.2x 2.3x 2.2x 2.0x 1.7x 1.6x Pre 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Collections to date Total MoM MoM at Due Diligence Gross Money Multiples by Vintage(1)
(x)
Evolution of Gross Money Multiples(1)
1) Based on actual and forecasted collections for spot portfolios as at December 31, 2017.
1.5x 1.3x 1.6x 1.8x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.7x 1.6x
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CONTINUED CASH FLOW CREATION AT STABLE ERC
Cumulative 120m Gross ERC Per Year as at Dec-2017 Cash Flow Creation (€m)(1)
1) For each period: Actual collections in the year and ERC as at year-end vs. respective forecasts as of previous year-end.
0-12 Months 13-24 Months 25-36 Months 37-48 Months 49-60 Months 61-72 Months 73-84 Months 85-96 Months 97-108 Months 109-120 Months 120m Gross ERC 22 28 2016 2017 (€m)
in 2016
which more than offset acquisitions made broadly in line with replacement rate
by strong cash flow visibility over the coming 10 years and significant value “in the tail”
portion of paying / secured portfolios
position and ability to capture future market opportunities
Gross 120m ERC
377 368 2016 2017 120 months Gross ERC 49 45 Portfolio Acquisitions (€m)
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DIFFERENTIATED POSITIONING AS INDEPENDENT SERVICER TO PROVIDE COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE IN PORTFOLIO PURCHASING AND DRIVE FURTHER REVENUE GROWTH
Key Benefits of the CIF Contract AUM (€bn) and Number of Accounts (k) Growing Contribution to Group Revenues
before and after debt or receivables become overdue
portfolio servicer
started in 2017, making MCS the clear market leader in the servicing of performing loans in France
revenues, re-aligning revenue mix with large-scale European players
Servicing Revenues (€m) 8.5 18.3 2016 2017
12% 25%
Loan Servicing Revenue as % of Total Net Revenue
Landmark transaction in the French market that serves as a major credential and operational foundation for future opportunities
Key 17-year contract providing a quantum leap in performing loan servicing revenue and diversification
Significant value creation with limited up-front investment c.€1m per month in servicing revenue since contract went into effect on April 1, 2017
0.5 4.2 2016 2017
12% 62 7
Number of Accounts
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ONGOING INVESTMENT IN OUR PEOPLE, DIVERSITY AND EXCELLENCE
performance and protects our reputation as a highly compliant partner for financial institution
develop and engage the best talents
35% Increase in staff between 2016 and 2017 75% Of employees with a master degree or above 60% Of female employees 36 Average age
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AN ADDITIONAL YEAR OF PROFITABLE GROWTH
Highlights
between 2016 and 2017
start of the CIF contract and the ramp-up of other existing contracts
decreased as a percentage of revenues by 1.2 pp to 10%
increase of €2m in line with our business growth
Key Financials
Variation €m 2016 2017 € % Gross Collections 83.4 93.2 9.8 11.7 % Attributable Gross collection 78.4 89.5 11.1 14.2 % Non Attributable Gross Collection 5.0 3.7 (1.3) (26.6)% Servicing Revenues 8.5 18.3 9.8 115.3 % Total Cash Revenues 91.9 111.5 19.6 21.3 % Portfolio Amortisation & Revaluations (22.3) (39.5) (17.3) 78% Total Net Revenues 69.6 72.0 2.3 3.4 % Professional fees and services (9.1) (9.1) 0.0 (0.5)% Personnel costs (16.4) (21.1) (4.7) 28.6 % General and administrative expenses (10.1) (12.5) (2.4) 23.5 % Total costs (35.7) (42.7) (7.0) 19.7 % EBITDA 34.0 29.3 (4.7) (13.8)% Non attributable distribution (4.0) (1.4) 2.7 (65.9)% Portfolio Co-Invest Amort. & Reval. 3.4 0.5 (2.9) (85.3)% Attributable EBITDA 33.4 28.4 (4.9) (14.8)% Cash EBITDA 56.3 68.8 12.6 22.3 % Attributable Cash EBITDA 52.2 67.4 15.2 29.2 %
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Highlights
2017, our financing structure has improved materially:
rapidly brought back down to 3.2x at year end on the back of:
revenues and collection outperformance on debt purchase
despite healthy purchasing levels at replacement rate
to €52m from €37m, providing firepower and flexibility for future purchases
bought back during the last quarter of 2017, increasing our interests in this SPV from 67% to 93%
and we intend to maintain a leverage in the 2.5x to 3.5x range
Strong Deleveraging
€m 30-06-2017 31-12-2017 Gross Debt 270 270 LTM Cash EBITDA 54 69 Net Debt (IFRS) 230 218 Leverage on LTM Cash EBITDA 4.3 3.2 84m Gross ERC 309 311 Leverage on 84m ERC (LTV) 74% 70%
More Attractive Capital Structure
€m Before Oct-17 Since Oct-17 Maturity profile 5 years 7 years Maturity year 2021 2024 Cost E+5.75% 4.25% Size of RCF €25m €40m Cost of RCF E+3.25-3.50% E+3.00-3.25%
IMPROVED AND MORE ATTRACTIVE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
STRONG CASH FLOW GENERATION ENABLING QUICK DELEVERAGING
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KEY MESSAGES AND OUTLOOK
Confirmed leadership in a growing French market
Robust financial performance and optimised capital structure improving financial flexibility
Disciplined approach to portfolio acquisitions driving attractive risk-adjusted returns
Solid and increasingly secured backbook providing highly predictable cash flows
Investment in servicing already bringing outstanding outcomes – New medium target set at 30% of loan servicing revenue contribution
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