Blaming Europe? Citizens, Governments and the Media Sara B Hobolt - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE

Blaming Europe?

Citizens, Governments and the Media

Sara B Hobolt

Sutherland Chair in European Institutions London School of Economics and Political Science s.b.hobolt@lse.ac.uk

Blaming Europe?

AFP Photo/Jose Jordan

Questions

1)

How do citizens assign blame to the European Union?

2)

Do the media and governments shift blame to the EU?

3)

Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy

• utcomes?

Attribution and Accountability

“Democracy is the process by which people choose the man who'll get the blame.”

• Bertrand Russell

Policy performance Vote choice Attribution of responsibility

How do citizens assign blame?

 Institutional reality versus individual biases?  Attribution of blame should reflect the division of

responsibility across levels of government

 Especially when information is available

 But citizens also rely on in-group biases (EU attitudes)

 Selective attribution of blame: Europhiles absolve the EU of

blame, whereas Eurosceptics blame the EU for poor performance

How do citizens assign blame?

Who is responsible?

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 2 2 3 4

Health care Economy Immigration Interest rates National Joint EU Nobody

Responsibility for interest rates

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Experts Public

Attribution of responsibility to the EU

Pegged to Eurozone Unpegged Eurozone Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) & Survey of EU experts

Impact of media coverage on the EU

 When do citizens get it right?

• 4
• 3.5
• 3
• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1

Newspaper EU visibility TV EU visibility

Closeness to expert assignment on the economy

High exposure Low exposure

Source: European Election Studies 2009 & European Media Study 2009

Responsibility for the financial crisis (UK)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% think responsible for financial crisis US banks EU British government Source: British Election Study, 2008-2012

Responsibility for the economy (UK)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% think affects the economy the most Just British government Neither EU or both Source: British Election Study, 2004-2012

Blaming the EU for economic problems

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Britain France Spain Germany Poland

% blaming EU for economic problems

2012 2010 2011

Source: PEW survey data 2010, 2011 & 2012

Selective attribution of blame in the crisis

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Britain France Spain Germany Poland

EU blamed for economic problems EU supporter EU opponent

Source: PEW survey data 2011

Selective attribution of blame for the crisis (UK)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% think EU is responsible for financial crisis EU supporter EU opponent Source: British Election Study

Summary:

How do citizens assign blame?

 Citizens’ attribution of responsibility to the EU reflects

the institutional and political context

 More blame of the EU as the euro crisis has unfolded  Newspaper consumption makes citizens betters able to assign

responsibility, and high levels of media coverage reduces biases

 Selective attribution: blame also driven by attitudes

towards the EU

The Blame Game?

 To what extent do national governments and the

national media assign blame to the EU?

Media blame attribution for the economy

10 20 30 40 European Union Other national actors National government

% stories assigning responsibility

Newspapers Television

Source: European Media Study 2009 (N=36,000 stories)

Assignment of responsibility for the economy, 2009

The Crisis: who is credited by governments?

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

UK Germany Ireland

National government EU Other Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012

The Crisis: who is blamed by governments?

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

UK Germany Ireland

Previous government EU Other Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012

Summary: Who do the media and governments blame?

 The media covers the EU, but policy-specific coverage is

less common, and attribution of responsibility to the EU is rare

 Heads of Governments very rarely blame the EU, even

during the crisis. Instead we find:

 Diffusion of responsibility – joint European responsibility

(“we are all in this together”)

 Credit taking – national governments claiming credit for

policy outcomes

Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy outcomes?

 Accountability:

 Punishing or rewarding governments for policy outcomes that

is their responsibility

 Greater performance voting when there is “clarity of

responsibility” ~ identifiable government

Performance evaluation Vote choice Attribution of responsibility Clarity of responsibility

Accountability in a national context

• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Less responsible More responsible Less responsible More responsible Less responsible More responsible

Change in propensity to vote for government parties

Medium clarity systems Low clarity systems High clarity systems

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

The economy moves from bad to good

Accountability in European elections

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Economy moves from bad to good

% change in EPP vote share

EU more responsible EU less responsible

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

Effect on trust in the EU

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Economy moves from bad to good

% change in trust in EU institutions

EU more responsible EU less responsible

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

Summary: Can citizens hold the EU to account?

 There is no evidence that citizens punish or rewards

MEPs for performance that the EU is deemed to be responsible for:

 The EU lacks a clearly identifiable “government party” in the EP

that voters can punish and reward

 No clear link between the European Parliament vote and EU

executive

 However, when citizens blame the EU for poor

performance that leads to lower levels of trust in EU institutions

Implications

 Lack of mechanisms for accountability in the EU  Reduced accountability for national governments  Consequences for the legitimacy of the EU  Aggravated by the crisis

Possible solutions to accountability deficit

 Greater institutional clarity

 Clearer divisions of competences

 Greater government clarity

 Government-Opposition politics in the European Parliament  Stronger link between parliamentary majority and the Commission or a

directly elected Commission President

 Greater transparency to make it more difficult for national

politicians to diffuse blame/claim credit

“A fundamental deepening of the EMU must go hand in hand with greater democratic legitimacy. Wherever new competences are created at European level or closer coordination of national policies is established, full democratic control has to be ensured.”

Future of Europe Group (EU Foreign Ministers), 17 Sep 2012