BILD Calgary Region City Manager Jeff Fielding Wednesday February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

V05 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary

BILD Calgary Region

City Manager Jeff Fielding Wednesday February 14, 2018

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Coming together is a beginning. Keeping together is progress. Working together is success.

Henry Ford

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OUR VISION Calgary: a great place to make a living,

A great place to make a life.

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2017.

27%

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Operating Savings & Efficiencies 2015-2018

$168M $115M $54M $92M $41M

$ 470 million

Operating Cost Reductions & Efficiencies Cost Containment - Labour One Time Operating Cost Savings Intentional Savings Utility Rate Reductions

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10 Year Infrastructure Gap

* Source: Infrastructure Status Report

2 4 6 8 10 12 2004 2007 2010 2013 2017 $ (BILLIONS) Operating Gap Capital Maintenance Gap Capital Growth Gap Total Infrastructure Gap

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Infrastructure – Assets Physical Condition

80% 76% 78% 95% 88% 14% 17% 16% 3.50% 9.70% 6% 7% 6% 1.50% 2.30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 2007 2010 2013 2017 Good Fair Poor

*Infrastructure Status Report

Per cent of assets

Year

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Total Debt Outlook 2012-2028

71% 68% 66% 57% 56% 65% 67% 68% 58% 56% 56% 58% 62% 65% 60% 53% 50%

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

$ millions

Tax-Supported Self Supported Self Sufficient Tax Supported MSI Green Line Stage 1 (Scenario 3) Council Debt Limit

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Debt Impact Outlook

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Existing debt-pre-Green Line Project Existing debt-pre-Green Line Project Green Line Project Green Line Project Debt Limit 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2025 Debt Balance – Low ($ B) 2025 Debt Balance – High ($ B)

$ billions

Debt impact of projects under consideration

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Building Permit Values 2007-2017

Billion $

Source: The City of Calgary, Corporate Economics

$4.6B

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10-Year Average $4.8B

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Economic Assumptions

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Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018

Action Plan Actual Action Plan Actual Action Plan Current Action Plan Forecast Calgary Region GDP Growth 2.5%

• 3.7%

2.3%

• 1.2%

2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.4% Unemployment 4.5% 6.1% 4.4% 9.0% 4.5% 8.6% 4.5% 6.7% Oil Price (WCS US$/bbl) N.A. $35.70 N.A. $29.50 N.A. $37.60 N.A. $40.50 City of Calgary Population 1,196,000 1,231,00 1,223,00 1,235,00 1,251,000 1,246,000 1,274,000 1,259,000 Housing starts 9,400 10,600 10,000 7,700 12,300 6,300 10,800 4,400 Building permits ($ billions) $6.1 $6.3 $5.6 $4.7 $4.5 $4.6 $4.4 $3.6

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Calgary is a great place to make a living

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each statement using a scale from 1 to 10, where “1” is “completely disagree” and “10” is “completely agree.” Base: Valid respondents (Bases vary) 16% 15% 21% 29% 35% 52% 50% 59% 57% 55% 22% 23% 13% 9% 8%

10% 12% 7% 5% 2 2017 2016 2015

2014 2013

Completely Agree (10) Agree (9, 8 or 7) Neutral (6 or 5) Disagree (4, 3, 2 or 1)

68% 65% 80% 86% 90%

% Agree

68%

Late Fall 2017

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Current Economic Situation (Businesses)

1% 1% 4% 22% 20% 47% 45% 49% 40% 31% 29% 8%

Calgary Alberta Canada

How would you rate the current economic situation in…

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know

Base: All respondents n=320

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Trust and Confidence

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Non-residential market value assessment change

7%

• 4%
• 6%
• 5%
• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

2015 2016 2017 2018

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Non-residential Assessment Values & Municipal Tax Examples

Property 2015 2016 2017 Trend

Downtown AA Office 1,432,050,000 1,294,900,000 1,013,010,000

Assessment: ↓

$15,375,491 $15,738,862 $14,062,504

Taxes: ↓

Downtown A Office 374,440,000 330,730,000 257,310,000

Assessment: ↓

$4,020,250 $4,019,858 $3,571,952

Taxes: ↓

Downtown B Office 65,630,000 54,640,000 37,660,000

Assessment: ↓

$704,650 $664,122 $522,792

Taxes: ↓

Suburban A Strip Mall 19,320,000 19,190,000 20,400,000

Assessment:↑

$207,433 $233,245 $283,191

Taxes: ↑

Suburban B Strip Mall 1,940,000 1,960,000 1,980,000

Assessment:↑

$20,829 $23,823 $27,486

Taxes: ↑

Enclosed Shopping Centre 83,880,000 75,360,000 76,560,000

Assessment: ↕

$900,594 $915,963 $1,062,798

Taxes: ↑

Large Industrial Warehouse 119,520,000 120,600,000 117,450,000

Assessment: ↕

$1,283,250 $1,465,833 $1,630,429

Taxes: ↑

Downtown Suburban

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31% 44% 18% 5% 2%

To what degree do you think that now is a good time or a bad time for The City of Calgary to be investing in new projects like roads, public transportation, and local facilities?

Very good time Somewhat good time Somewhat bad time Very bad time Don't know

Good time: 75%

Base: All respondents n=320

Sentiment about Timing for The City to Invest in New Projects (Businesses)

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The City’s Capital Investment (2015-2017)

198,782 323,624 520,319 673,051 813,712 947,053 1,103,285 1,256,828 1,403,272 1,742,414 118,589 189,367 283,041 391,323 487,703 579,496 724,494 798,745 907,087 1,210,979 176,411 254,140 376,353 514,087 629,458 761,236 961,291 1,067,295 1,254,228 1,547,765

• 0.20

0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Capital Investment (Actual Spend) in Billions ($) 2017 Actual Spend 2015 Actual Spend 2016 Actual Spend

Annual 5 year Average 2010-2015 ($1.2 B)

*Information based on Executive Management Report 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary

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Select Fall 2017 Housing Starts Forecasts for Calgary (2018-2022)

4,400 4,100 5,900 8,000 9,600 8,160 8,560 8,960 9,520 9,747 10,166 10,354 10,564 8,391 8,391 8,391 8,391

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Corporate Economics (City of Calgary) CMHC (Low) CMHC (High) Conference Board of Canada Altus Group (Best Scenario)

Note 1: Conference Board and CMHC forecasts are published at the CMA level. They are multiplied by 0.8 to reflect Calgary's historical 80% share of CMA housing starts. Note 2: Altus Group data comes from a housing forecast commissioned by The City. Altus data reflects "change in occupied dwellings“, and is based on a 5 year total that has been annualized.

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“Calgary’s housing market is Goldilocks’ dream – not too hot, not too cold, just comfortably right in between.”

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Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income

39.6 31.0 37.7 43.0 72.0 79.7 43.1 33.2 42.3 42.4 85.8 111.8 25.6 20.0 28.4 34.3 38.6 44.4 20 40 60 80 100 120 Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Montreal Toronto Vancouver

Aggregate of all categories Single-family detached Condominium

Per cent of income

Source: RBC Economics. Housing Trends & Affordability, June 2017 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary

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Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income

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Consistency and Predictability for Approvals

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51% 78% 96% 30% 54% 74% 63% 74% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017

Timeline Commitments Met

Initial Team Review Detailed Team Review Decision

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Development Facilitation

2017 performance & metrics

Initial Team Review

3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 2016/2017 Change

Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary

42% 72% 97% 97%

Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites

54% 69% 95% 95%

Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only

75% 86% 100% 100%

Subdivision by Instrument

42% 85% 98% 98%

Subdivision by Tentative Plan

41% 76% 89% 89%

Detailed Team Review Performance

3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 2016/2017 Change

Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary

34% 62% 91% 91%

Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites

15% 37% 70% 70%

Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only

50% 79% 94% 94%

Subdivision by Instrument

22% 44% 78% 78%

Subdivision by Tentative Plan

27% 49% 68% 68%

Decisions Performance

3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 2016/2017 Change

Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary

59% 71% 75% 75%

Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites

52% 56% 63% 63%

Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only

66% 90% 97% 97%

Subdivision by Instrument

64% 92% 91% 91%

Subdivision by Tentative Plan

56% 58% 67% 67%

Development Permit: Technical

83% 85% 90% 90%

Development Permit: Infills

61% 69% 77% 77%

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Ongoing Investments

• Mix of funded and unfunded
• 27 actively developing new communities with land use

Future Investment Areas

• Unfunded
• 9 Area Structure Plans
• 13-15 future new communities (11 business cases) at this time

Current and Future New Communities

Future new community with significant non- residential component Area Structure Plan boundary

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As of early 2018, there are 27 actively developing communities with land use approved:

• 8 communities have recently been initiated, or are expected within 1 year
• 10 communities will complete single residential build out within 3 years

Developing Communities

New Community Current Supply (vacant, serviced lots) New Community Demand (2018-2022 forecast) Difference between supply and forecasted demand

Single Residential 14,500 16,700 (2,200) Multi Residential 31,150 8,050 23,100 Total 45,650 24,750 20,900

February 14, 2018

2019-2022 budget deliberations will inform supply

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Economic Development Investment Fund Guiding Principles

and catalytic investments

Strategic

and deal closing mechanisms

Deal making

nimble, responsive and rigorous processes

Fast

partnerships and expertise

Leverage funding

where appropriate

Utilize third-party

• bjective validation

(ROI) and material impact

Generate return

• n investment

and accountability

Transparency

made based on solid non-political risk/reward and cost/benefit analysis

Decisions Not business as usual

and innovative to compete

Calgary must be bold

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Green Line and Winter Olympics

Key date: March 31

• Solidify Venue info / Negotiations
• Deadline for Cities to enter Candidature Process by joining Dialogue Stage

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Project Timeline

Green Line Stage 1

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Coming together is a beginning. Keeping together is progress. Working together is success.

Henry Ford

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Thank You

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