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Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations December 18, 2017 Business Research Division | Leeds

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Place cover image here

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations December 18, 2017

Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

  • 10.0
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent Quarterly GDP Annualized GDP 1990-1999 Annualized GDP 2000-2009 Annualized GDP 2010- Present

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and December 2017 Consensus Forecast.

Real GDP Growth

Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP 1990-2017

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Economic Growth

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

  • 30
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Percent Change Year

Fixed Business Investment

Quarterly SAAR Year-over-Year

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 00 01 02 04 05 07 08 09 11 12 14 15 17 Percent Change Year

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Quarterly SAAR Year-over-Year

  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Percent Change Year

Net Exports

Exports Imports

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Percent Change Year

Government Spending

Quarterly SAAR Year-over-Year

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

  • 600
  • 500
  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average

Recession 18 Months Recession 8 Months

National Employment

Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody’s Analytics, and NBER.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

State Employment Growth

Year-over-Year October 2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Underutilization

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

U-6 7.9% U-3 Percentage of Labor Force 4.1% Average U-6 Average U-3

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force Participation Rates

National by Age Cohort 1967-2017

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ LFPR 1987 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

2000 1991 1999 2010 Historical Peak Current: 2017 Age Group

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, September 2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree

Percentage

LFPR Unemployment Rate

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

U.S. Income and Consumption

Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Change

Real Personal Consumption

2.5%

  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Change

Real Disposable Income

2.4%

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Household Wealth

Q1 2000-Q3 2017

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2004 2008 2012 2017

$ Trillions Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Other Assets

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Household Debt Burden

14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

FOR

DSR

Percent of Disposable Income

Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Debt Service Ratio (L)

Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1985=100 Recession 8 months United States Mountain Region

Index of Consumer Confidence

Recession 18 months

Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2017

Retail and Food Services Sales

Annual Percent Change 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Vehicle Sales

Thousands, SAAR

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment

  • 20.0
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Change

Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits

3.9% 4.7%

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

  • 20.0
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Change

Business Fixed Investment

4.5% 4.4%

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

ISM Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

ISM Manufacturing Index

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

FHFA Home Price Index by MSA

1-year Home Price Change, Q3 2017

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Percent Change

Denver-Aurora- Broomfield MSA Greeley MSA Colorado Springs MSA Fort Collins- Loveland MSA Pueblo MSA Grand Junction MSA Boulder MSA

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National FHFA Home Price Growth

Year over Year Q3 2017

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National Housing Starts

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millions 1.3

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Money, Interest Rates, and Prices

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Interest Rates

2000-2018 (Forecast)

Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody’s.

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent 10-Year T-Note 3-Month T-Bill

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Securities Trends

Source: Bloomberg.

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Indexed, 2009=100

NASDAQ Russell 2000 S&P 500 Dow Jones CPI

Trough of Recession in 2009 to December 2017

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National Inflation

  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Year-over-Year Percent Change All items Shelter All items less food and energy

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI), (SA).

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Change in Population

Colorado’s population increases

  • 91,500 in 2017
  • 90,600 in 2018

7th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 88% of growth along Front Range Continued net migration into the state

Source: Colorado Demography Office.

Natural Increase Net Migration

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2000 2006 2012 2018 Thousands Change in Colorado Population 2000-2018

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Employment Growth

Jobs Added

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thousands

56,330 47,100

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

TTU L&H EHS PBS Govt Info Const MFG Mining

2,650 2,660 2,670 2,680 2,690 2,700 2,710

Total jobs gained: 47,100

Employment in Thousands

Colorado Employment Change

2018 Forecast

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).

2017 2018 Finance Other

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

2 4 6 Grand Junction Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Colorado Springs Pueblo Boulder Fort Collins- Loveland Greeley Percentage

Unemployment Rate October 2017

Colorado 2.6%

  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 Grand Junction Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Colorado Springs Pueblo Boulder Fort Collins-Loveland Greeley Percentage

Employment Growth Rate, October 2017 YoY

Colorado 1.4%

Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment

Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Wages

Sector Total Employment YoY Employment Growth Wages YoY Wage Growth

Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises 36.7 0.3% $128,275

  • 9.9%

Mining and Logging 23.7

  • 22.8%

$114,630

  • 0.1%

Utilities 8.2 0.0% $95,715 2.6% Information 71.7 1.4% $95,511 1.4% Professional and Technical Services 210.1 2.7% $90,437 1.8% Finance and Insurance 113.4 2.5% $90,007 2.3% Wholesale Trade 105.1 1.6% $79,510 0.5% Manufacturing 142.5 1.1% $66,329

  • 0.2%

Construction 155.1 4.2% $57,344 3.6% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 50.2 3.7% $54,984 3.6% All Industries 2,599.2 2.3% $54,664 0.9% Government 427.3 2.4% $53,556 2.2% Transportation and Warehousing 72.9 1.8% $53,090 2.4% Health Care and Social Assistance 286.9 4.1% $48,801 1.3% Educational Services 39.8 3.4% $39,361 1.2% Administrative and Waste Services 158.5 0.8% $38,771 2.9% Other Services 105.2 2.1% $38,204 1.9% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 52.5 3.3% $36,072 2.0% Retail Trade 268.6 2.1% $30,625 1.8% Accommodation and Food Services 270.8 3.4% $20,996 3.0%

Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Agriculture

Photo courtesy of Luke Gubbels.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income

2008-2018

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $ Millions

Gross Revenue

Net Income Farm Production Expenses $8.0B 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

$ Millions

Net Farm Income

$1.4 B

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Livestock Cash Receipts

2008-2018

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $ Millions $4.7B

  • Beef is the largest share
  • Cattle feeders had a prosperous year
  • Potential NAFTA impact
  • Labor Shortages
  • Dairy herd and milk production are up
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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Indexed Commodity Prices

Wheat and Corn

Sources: Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price, USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Spot Price/Kansas City Missouri). As of November 2017.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 January 2004=100 Corn Wheat

  • High crop yields in corn and wheat
  • Continued low corn and wheat prices
  • Crop farmers are “farming equity”
  • Worldwide market overflowing with grain
  • Chinese government cut wheat purchase

program

  • Strain on water resources concerns

farmers

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Crops Cash Receipts

2008-2018

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $ Millions $2.1B

  • Lack of labor to harvest crops: “If

You Plant It, Who Will Harvest It?”

  • Sectors experiencing growth:

grapes, hemp, greenhouses, and nurseries

  • Price of crops lower than cost of

production

  • NAFTA renegotiations and results

will affect agricultural exports

  • Farm consolidation and loss of

business in rural communities expected in 2018

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Construction

Photo Courtesy Regional Transportation District.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Housing Units 2001-2007 – 119,895 more housing units than households 2008-2016 – 107,409 more households than housing units Households

Colorado New Housing Units and Households

Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Average Rent

Colorado Multi-Family Housing, Q2 2008-Q3 2017

Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA), Statewide Multifamily Housing Vacancy and Rent Survey.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

YoY Rent Growth Average Rent

Q2 2008: $848

Average Rent (Left Axis) Rent Growth (Right Axis)

Q3 2017: $1,346

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

House Price Index

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Grand Junction Boulder Pueblo Fort Collins Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Percent

Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q3 2016 – Q3 2017

  • 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Grand Junction Pueblo Colorado Springs Greeley Fort Collins Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Percent

Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q3 2007 – Q3 2017

Colorado 9.3% Colorado 4%

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

43,400

Residential Building Permits

1996-2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Multifamily Single Family

Permits

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of Construction

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $ Millions $10 B

Residential, 2008-2018

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

  • Permit values exclude land values, upgrades
  • Consumers buying smaller units
  • Population driving strong demand
  • Very low foreclosure rate
  • Low interest rates help affordable
  • Shortage of skilled labor for housing

construction

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

$- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

$19.2 B

Value of Construction

1996-2018

Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics.

Non-Building Residential Non-Residential

Value in Billions

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Change in Residential Assessed Values

2016-2017

Source: Source: Department of Local Affairs, Division of Property Taxation.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Natural Resources and Mining

Photo courtesy of Denver International Airport.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Millions of Barrels

Crude Oil Production

Largest Producers (July 2017) 1. Texas 2. North Dakota 3. California 4. New Mexico 5. Oklahoma 6. Alaska 7. Colorado 8. Wyoming 9. Louisiana

  • 10. Kansas

2008-2018

Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

115

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Billions of Cubic Feet

Natural Gas Production

2008-2018

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

1,670

  • Fifth-largest producing state
  • Projected price higher due to colder

temperatures

  • Prices in Colorado in 2017 were the

11th lowest in the country

  • Total production flat due to low prices
  • Value of production to increase

slightly

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Coal Production

2008-2018

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Short Tons (Millions) 15.0

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

  • Lowest production levels since the

mid-1970s

  • State ranking slipped to 13th in 2017
  • Government mandates for

renewables limiting production

  • Short-term production expected to

increase slightly

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of Natural Resources

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Millions Crude Oil

2008-2018

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Natural Gas CO2 Minerals Coal

$14 B

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Renewables

  • One of the most ambitious

renewable energy portfolios

  • Includes wind, solar, hydro,

geothermal, and biomass

  • 21.5% of net generation in 2016
  • Colorado ranks 10th nationally for

wind capacity

  • Colorado ranks 11th nationally for

solar capacity

Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Ranking Among Other States

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/17), U.S. Census Bureau (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2017), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q2 2017), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth 14 7 3 6 Employment Growth 20 11 6 4 Population Growth 7 4 4 3 Personal Income Growth 7 16 2 5 PCPI Growth 36 19 2 33 PCPI 15 14 21 13 Average Annual Pay % Growth 35 26 25 26 Average Annual Pay 10 13 12 10 Unemployment Rate 3 13 28 16 Labor Force % Growth 1 4 4 4 FHFA Home Price Index Growth 6 1 3 2

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Potential Headwinds

  • Interest rates
  • Global growth
  • Commodity prices
  • Value of the dollar
  • Drought and weather
  • Policy
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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Mesa County

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

  • 12%
  • 8%
  • 4%

0% 4% 8% 12%

  • $6,000
  • $4,000
  • $2,000

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percentage Change Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars

Real Gross Domestic Product

Grand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

45 50 55 60 65 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands 97 Months . . . +2,600 jobs, +4.5%

Non-Ag Employment

Grand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year-over-Year Percent Change

Non-Ag Employment

Grand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

Expected CDLE Revisions

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Grand Junction MSA Employment Change

October 2017

Month over Month 1-Year 3-Year (CAGR) 5-Year (CAGR) 10-Year (CAGR) Total

  • 0.2%
  • 0.6%
  • 0.5%

0.5%

  • 0.4%

Mining, Logging, and Construction 0.0% 0.0%

  • 7.1%
  • 2.6%
  • 4.8%

Manufacturing 0.0% 3.4% 2.3% 2.1%

  • 0.9%

Wholesale 0.0% 0.0%

  • 5.2%

0.0% 0.0% Retail 1.2% 1.2% 2.5% 1.7%

  • 0.3%

Transportation and Utilities 0.0%

  • 4.2%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.2%
  • 1.9%

Information 0.0% 0.0%

  • 5.0%
  • 5.6%
  • 5.0%

Financial Activities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%

  • 0.9%

Professional and Business Services 0.0%

  • 1.8%
  • 2.4%
  • 0.4%
  • 0.4%

Education and Health Services

  • 1.0%

0.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% Leisure and Hospitality

  • 1.3%
  • 2.6%

0.9% 1.4% 0.3% Other 0.0% 0.0%

  • 1.4%

0.0% 0.0% Government 0.0%

  • 1.9%

0.6% 0.6% 1.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Excludes expected revisions from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Mesa County Personal Income

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Thousands

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Millions

Mesa County Wages

Annual Rate (4Q Rolling)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

  • 49 M
  • 1.9%
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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Mesa County Average Wages

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Millions

4Q Rolling Average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

2016 Average Annual Wages

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Dollars

Colorado Statewide - $54,664

Western Slope Colorado

$40,872

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000

Percent Change Deposits, Millions Percent Change (R-axis) Deposits (L-axis)

Grand Junction Bank Deposits

1995-2017

Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Single Family v. Multifamily Permits

Grand Junction MSA

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Permits

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

2016 YTD 2017 YTD

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Residential Permits and Valuation

Grand Junction MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2016 YTD 2017 YTD Value ($, thousands) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Permits

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Permits Weld and Garfield = 77.9% Western Slope = 16.6% Mesa County = 6%

Drilling Permits by County

2017 YTD

Source: COGCC.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 YTD Permits

Western Slope Drilling Permits

1988-2017 YTD

Source: COGCC.

Western Slope Rest of Colorado Western Slope % Share

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Grand Junction Regional Airport (GJT)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Passengers (Thousands)

Passenger Traffic

Source: Grand Junction Regional Airport.

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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

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