Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations December 18, 2017 Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP 1990-2017 Percent 10.0 Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP 8.0 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010- Present 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 Quarterly GDP -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and December 2017 Consensus Forecast. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Economic Growth Percent Change Percent Change Government Spending Personal Consumption Expenditures 8 10 8 6 6 Year-over-Year Year-over-Year 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 Quarterly SAAR -4 Quarterly SAAR -2 -6 -4 -8 -6 -10 00 01 02 04 05 07 08 09 11 12 14 15 17 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Year Year Percent Change Percent Change Fixed Business Investment Net Exports 25 20 20 15 Year-over-Year 15 Exports 10 10 5 5 0 0 Imports -5 -5 Quarterly SAAR -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -30 -25 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Year Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 Recession 18 Months -300 Recession 8 Months -400 -500 -600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody’s Analytics, and NBER. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
State Employment Growth Year-over-Year October 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 Average U-6 U-6 10.0 8.0 7.9% Average U-3 6.0 U-3 4.0 4.1% 2.0 0.0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort 1967-2017 LFPR 90.0 2000 1991 1999 Historical Peak 1987 80.0 Current: 2017 70.0 2010 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 2016 20.0 10.0 0.0 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, September 2017 Percentage 80 70 60 50 LFPR 40 30 20 Unemployment 10 Rate 0 Less than a high High school Some college, Associate Bachelor's Advanced school diploma graduates no degree degree degree degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Percent Real Disposable Income Real Personal Consumption Change Change 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.5% 2.4% 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household Wealth Q1 2000-Q3 2017 $ Trillions 120 100 Other Assets 80 60 Mutual Funds 40 Corporate Equities 20 Real Estate 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR FOR 13.5 18.4 13.0 Debt Service Ratio (L) 17.9 12.5 17.4 12.0 11.5 16.9 11.0 16.4 Financial Obligations Ratio (R) 10.5 15.9 10.0 15.4 9.5 9.0 14.9 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Index of Consumer Confidence Recession Recession 1985=100 8 months 18 months 160 Mountain Region 140 120 100 United States 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Thousands, SAAR Annual Percent Change 25,000 15.0 10.0 20,000 5.0 15,000 0.0 10,000 -5.0 5,000 -10.0 -15.0 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2017 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics , U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Percent Nominal Pre-Tax Business Fixed Change Change Corporate Profits Investment 30.0 10.0 25.0 4.5% 4.4% 5.0 20.0 15.0 0.0 10.0 3.9 % 4.7% 5.0 -5.0 0.0 -10.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -15.0 -20.0 -20.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
FHFA Home Price Index by MSA 1-year Home Price Change, Q3 2017 15% Denver-Aurora- Broomfield MSA Fort Collins- Loveland MSA Boulder MSA 10% 5% 0% Greeley MSA Colorado Pueblo Grand Junction Springs MSA -5% MSA MSA -10% Percent Change Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q3 2017 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Housing Starts Millions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Money, Interest Rates, and Prices Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Interest Rates 2000-2018 (Forecast) Percent 7.0 6.0 10-Year T-Note 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 3-Month T-Bill 1.0 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody’s. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Securities Trends Trough of Recession in 2009 to December 2017 Indexed, 2009=100 450 400 NASDAQ 350 Russell 2000 S&P 500 300 Dow Jones 250 200 150 CPI 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bloomberg. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.0 5.0 Shelter All items less food 4.0 and energy 3.0 2.0 1.0 All items 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI), (SA). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Change in Population Change in Colorado Population 2000-2018 Thousands 140,000 Colorado’s population increases 120,000 91,500 in 2017 • Net Migration 90,600 in 2018 • 100,000 7th-fastest state for percentage growth 80,000 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 60,000 Natural Increase 40,000 88% of growth along Front Range 20,000 Continued net migration into the state 0 2000 2006 2012 2018 Source: Colorado Demography Office. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
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