BAN 521 : Prescriptive Analytics Mustafa Hayri Tongarlak Objective - - PDF document

1

Objective Approach Content Instructor

BAN 521 : Prescriptive Analytics

Mustafa Hayri Tongarlak tongarlak@sabanciuniv.edu Become better decision makers!

Lose your sleep before your decision, not after it.

1 2

2

Management Science

Modeling tools

• Breakeven analysis
• Optimization analysis

(linear, integer, nonlinear, network)

• Risk analysis/dealing with

uncertainty (Monte Carlo simulation, Discrete Event simulation)

• Forecasting

Microsoft Excel tools

• Data Tables
• Goal Seek
• Solver
• SolverTable
• SimulationSupplement
• @Risk and Precision

Tree or R

About the Course

3 7

3

Administrivia

Office hours: after class or by appointment

• Office: SOM 1039
• Email: tongarlak@sabanciuniv.edu

Assistant Instructor (AI): Sefa Kılıç

• Office Hours: TBA
• Email: sefakilic@sabanciuniv.edu

HW submissions:

• Via SUCourse Assignments
• HW related inquiries shoud be directed to AI (cc. me)

Week 1 Introduction: Modeling in Excel Weeks 2 – 7 Resource Allocation: Optimization Weeks 7 – 13 Risk analysis: Simulation Week 14 Forecasting ?

Lecture Outline

8 9

4

Course Evaluation

Categories: Midterm Exam (30 points) Best 5 In-Class Quizzes (2 points each) and 2 Modelling Challenges (5 points each) Best 3 Individual assignments (5 points each) Best 3 Group assignments (5 points each) Final Project (20 points) Note: At least 9 points on individual assignments required to get credit from group assignments

5 points. Complete solution. 4 points. Complete solution with fairly small mistakes. 3 points. Half complete analysis with small mistakes. 1 point. A valid submission with some issues. Analysis may not be right but effort to solve problems and theoretical information. REJECT (0 points). Submission with no write-up OR write-up with no executive summary/conclusion. Assignments due by 9.40am on Tuesday. No late submission. Assignment grades will be announced by Friday afternoon.

Assignment Grading ~ Please read the honor code in the syllabus.

10 12

5 Work individually first, then meet to discuss. NOT “this week I, next week you,…” Group Formation

• Form groups of THREE by February 27th
• If you are able to form a group, please submit the names of

group members (in a word doc) to SUCourse

• If you need a group, please send a request to my email

address.

• If you want me to put you in a group with a friend, one of

you can email both names to my email address.

• You won’t have a group until you ask for it!
• Form diverse groups: Excel, analytical, communication skills.
• Larger than THREE => less learning, logistics, free rider.
• Smaller than THREE => less diversity, weaker.

Group Work

Topic may be based on:

• Your work experience
• A case from another course
• A magazine article
• Even your own imagination!

Evaluation will be based on:

• Effective use of Excel tools
• Learning goals and insights delivered
• Correctness and clarity of the analysis
• The presentation

Simulation should be used!

Final Project

13 14

6

• You must not obtain solutions to the assignments, cases or

projects from other students in the past or present classes.

• Also, you must not include your name on a group report

if you have not contributed substantially to the group work.

Honor Code

• Microsoft Excel 2010 or newer
• Excel Add-ins: Solver, Simulation Supplement, SolverTable.
• The Palisade Corporation DecisionTools Suite: PrecisionTree,

@RISK, and RiskOptimizer.

• R and RStudio.

A Gentle Note to all Mac Users: The Decision Tools Suite is not compatible with Mac OS.

Required Software

15 16

7 SimulationSupplement add-in is developed in-house.

• It adds functions to generate random numbers from Exponential,

Uniform, Triangular and Poisson Distributions. This will aid in doing Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis in spreadsheets.

• Will be made available at SUCourse later in the semester.

SolverTable add-in is developed by Professor Albright.

• SolverTable is analogous to Excel’s data tables, except that

SolverTable needs a Solver run for each input combination.

• http://www.kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/Free_downloads.htm
• Note that there is an Excel tutorial on the same page.

Downloading Add-ins

Choose File  Options  Add-Ins  Go… in Excel.

Installing Add-Ins in Excel

17 18

8

Add an add-in by checking next to its name if it is listed under Add-ins. Choose Browse if it is not listed and go to the downloaded file.

Installing Add-Ins in Excel

19