Autonomous Vehicles Aaron DePass, Elena Cavallero, Anthony Haddad, Yemi Kolawole, Jordan Burstion, Blaire Zhang, Farzeen Najam
Overview 1. INTRODUCTION 2. PATENT 3. VALUE INFLECTION POINT AND FINANCING 4. MARKET 5. COMPETITION 6. CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION 7. VALUE PROPOSITION 8. REGULATION 9. CONCLUSION
What is an autonomous car? k n o w n a s s e l f d r i v i n g c a r i s a v e h i c l e t h a t i s c a p a b l e o f d e t e c t i n g i t s e n v i r o n m e n t u s i n g m a c h i n e ● l e a r n i n g a l g o r i t h m s a n d w i t h o u t a n y h u m a n i n p u t M a i n p a r t s o f a n a u t o n o m o u s v e h i c l e : ●
IP Protection Patents have been used to protect several hardwares and softwares in autonomous vehicles. ● Several patents have been filed by companies to secure the inventions of different ways autonomous ● vehicles operate. Cologne Institute for Economic Research identified and analyzed 5,839 patents related to autonomous driving! Examples: autonomous vehicle with fuel cell and autonomous flushing system, autonomous vehicle ● using laser detection, cars with a different modified algorithm. Patents are important since they provide protection from other companies in terms of securing inventions. It restricts competitors, giving companies revenue stream by dominating the market.
Value inflection points Past : Ideation of 1. partial automation Prototype 2. development Future: Enter the real 3. market Scale and 4. establishment
Funding and Partnerships www.consultancy.uk
High-Level Assessment Scale production Product + Production Establishment of the + product + Testing Go-to-Market Develop connectivity Strategy Sell first product + Collect consumers evaluation + Implementation of the technology
Market Opportunity
Market Attractiveness The Global Self-Driving Car Market is expected to reach around $20 ● billion by 2024 with the projected growth of 25.7% from 2016 to 2024. Transportation will always be an issue for everyone on earth ● Technology is transferable to other industries ● Good for the environment ● Things to Consider: ● Increase in funding for public transportation has increased (i.e. ○ lightrails) Cost of fuel increasing ○
Market Size 7.6 million cars and trucks at a net revenue of ~ 77.25 billion dollars in 2016. ● There are currently about 16 companies working on self-driving cars ranging in ● expected launch from 2018 to 2025 . With almost all companies working on average of two cars Comparing to the virality of Tesla and the electric car industry - who sold 80,000 ● car in 2017 If the each of the current companies sold half as much as Tesla ● (77.25 billion / 7.6 million) X 40,000 cars sold X 16 companies = ● $2.8 billion
Factors Affecting Pricing Technology ● The technology itself to make a car self driving cars can cost up to $250,000 ○ Willingness to pay ● Costs of self operated cars should decrease ○ Cost of autonomous vehicle will be expensive ○ Safety ● Hacking ○ Lack of Control ○ Competition ● Between other self-driving cars ○
Competitive Analysis
“Navigant Research assessed all the self-driving-car players and released a leadership grid in April [of 2017] showing who is most poised to bring Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4 self-driving cars to market in the next decade.” Muoio, Danielle. “RANKED: The 18 Companies Most Likely to Get Self-Driving Cars on the Road First.” Business Insider , Business Insider, 27 Sept. 2017, www.businessinsider.com/the-companies-most-likely-to “Navigant Research Leaderboard: Automated Driving Vehicles.” Navigant Research , 29 Jan. 2018, get-driverless-cars-on-the-road-first-2017-4. www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-automated-driving-vehicles.
Leadership Grid Context Relative strength / Market share Navigant has judged The Leadership Grid based on the following 10 criteria. A score of 100 is optimal. Vision ● Go-to market strategy ● Partners ● Production strategy ● Technology ● Sales ● Marketing and distribution ● Product capability ● Product quality and reliability ● Product portfolio ● Staying power ● “Navigant Research Leaderboard: Automated Driving Vehicles.” Navigant Research , 29 Jan. 2018, www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-automated-driving-vehicles.
Developments Ford “ Ford will have a fully autonomous vehicle in operation by 2021” ● “Committed to expanding its research in advanced algorithms, 3-D mapping, ● radar technology and camera sensors.” “Announced four key investments and collaborations” ● Velodyne, SAIPS, Nirenberg Neuroscience LLC and Civil Maps ○ Announced they would be collaborating with Lyft ● a fully autonomous vehicle in operation by 2021 “Looking Further.” Ford Corporate, corporate.ford.com/innovation/autonomous-2021.html. Hawkins, Andrew J. “Ford and Lyft Will Work Together to Deploy Autonomous Cars.” The Verge, The Verge, 27 Sept. 2017, www.theverge.com/2017/9/27/16373574/ford-lyft-self-driving-car-partnership-gm.
Customer Identification
Consumer approach Tech savvy early adopters ● Income ○ Area ○ Commuters ● Income ○ Number of children ○ Area ○ Commute time ○ People physically unable to drive ● Age ○ Income ○ Ability ○
Business approach Taxi / Ride hailing companies ● Driver Salary ○ Area ○ Bankroll ○ Trucking companies ● Route ○ Driver Salary ○ Bankroll ○ US Department of Transportation ●
Taxi / Ride Hailing Companies Services one of the 22 states where regulation allows AV ● Bankroll: >100k per car so at least 1m to front 10 cars ● (Cost of AV) / (Vehicle lifetime) < 3 (driver yearly salary) == 10k < 3(salary) ●
Value Proposition + Market Research
Value Proposition Benefits of self driving: Improved safety ● Reduced traffjc ● Enhanced mobility/increased productivity en route ● Bonus points: Data analytics for utilization of generated data ● Laying a foundation for ● creating personalized trip experiences ○ high quality in-vehicle products & services ○ Safety Mobility Effjciency Comfort
Market Research Initial Questions to Consider: 1. What are their pains and concerns? 2. What are the pains and concerns of their customers 3. What are their expectations of an optimized self driving solution? 4. How much are they willing to pay? 5. Given full autonomy of the car, what types of services are they wishing to supply to passengers? 6. What are existing partnerships and how well do they serve the passengers?
Regulatory Bodies Development | Launch | Marketing
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards
https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/fmvss-quickrefguide-hs811439.pdf
ENACTED LEGISLATION AR Regulates the testing of vehicles with autonomous technology, relates to vehicles equipped with driver-assistive truck platooning systems. CA Extends the repeal date of provisions authorizing the Department of Transportation to conduct testing of technologies that enable drivers to safely operate motor vehicles with less than 100 feet between each vehicle or combination of vehicles. CA Authorizes the Livermore Amador Valley Transit Authority to conduct a shared autonomous vehicle demonstration project for the testing of autonomous vehicles that do not have a driver seat in the driver's seat and are not equipped with a steering wheel, a brake pedal, or an accelerator. GA Relates to motor vehicles, exempts persons operating an automated motor vehicle with the automated driving system engaged from the requirement to hold a driver's license, provides for satisfaction of requirement to notify law enforcement in certain instances of collisions by automated motor vehicles, provides for certain equipment and insurance requirements, provides for registration requirements, provides for exclusive jurisdiction governing such vehicles. ND Relates to the operation and regulation of autonomous vehicles, requires authorization to operate an automated driving system equipped vehicle on a highway in this state, regulates the integration and testing of automated driving system equipped vehicles on the public highway system.
Marketing... Tie Art of the Deal(ership) Manufacturers heavily rely on car dealerships: 1. Building isn’t selling 2. Affordability 3. Guaranteed earnings 4. Market penetration 5. Local service centers Regulation will apply to both: Large campaigns sponsored by manufacturers and more localized advertising conducted by dealerships.
Regulatory Hurdles & Value Impact 1. So who’s driving? a. Google requested an interpretation of NHTSA Mobility-as-as service ● b. Google’s system “could be” legally the same as a Network effects for ● human driver affordability 2. How is the system recognized as a legal Data and logistics ● driver? 3. Who develops the test? 4. What should the test include? 5. If the AV needs a license, can states then set restrictions? 6. Liability 7. Data
Conclusion Partnerships + Lobbying + “S-Curves”
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