Assessment of Abenomics: Its Achievements and Remaining Agenda - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessment of Abenomics:

Its Achievements and Remaining Agenda

March 20, 2018 International Christian University Tokyo, Japan Jun Saito

Short-Term Interest Rate and Monetary Base

• 50

50 150 250 350 450 550

• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jul-85 Jul-86 Jul-87 Jul-88 Jul-89 Jul-90 Jul-91 Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 (Percent)

Monetary base (right scale) Call rate (overnight uncollateralized)

(Trillion yen) (Data Source) Bank of Japan

Budget Appropriation for Public Works

3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 p2018

Supplementary Budget Initial Budget

Abenomics

(Data source) Ministry of Finance (Fiscal year) (Trillion yen)

Real GDP Growth Rate

• 3
• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Exports PublicDemand PrivateDemand GDP(Expenditure Approach)

(Rate of change of seasonally adjusted series, in percent)

(Data Source) Economic and Social Research Institute of Cabinet Office

Abenomics

Output Gap

• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(Ratio to GDP, in percent) (Data Source) Cabinet Office

Abenomics

Labor Market Indicators

0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unemployment rate Job offers to applicants ratio (right scale)

(Data source) Statistics Bureau of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (Percent)

Abenomics

Consumer Price Index

• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CPI (Headline) CPI (excluding fresh foods) CPI (excluding fresh foods and energy)

(Data source) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Note) All series are adjusted for the consumption tax rate-hike. (Year-on-year rate, in percent)

Abenomics

OECD: General Government Fiscal Financial Balance

• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Estimates for 2017

(Percent of GDP)

(Data Source) OECD, Economic Outlook (November 2017)

OECD：General Government Gross Financial Liabilities

50 100 150 200 250

Estimates for 2017

(Percent of GDP) (Data Source) OECD, Economic Outlook (November 2017)

Regular and Non-Regular Employees

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non-regular employee Regular employee

(Ten thousands)

Abenomics

(Data Source) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (Note) Figures between 1984 and 2001 are for February, while the figures for 2002 and thereafter are for averages of the January-March quarter.

Population Projection

11 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 (2017) (2021) (2025) (2029) (2033) (2037) (2041) (2045) (2049) (2053) (2057) (2061) (2065) <2069> <2073> <2077> <2081> <2085> <2089> <2093> <2097> <2101> <2105> <2109> <2113>

Total population

Projection Auxiliary projection

2008: 128,083 (Peak) 2065: 88,077 (69.3%) 2115: 50,555 (39.8%)

（Thousands)

（Data Source) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Population Projection for Japan, April 2017. 2015: 127,095 (100%)

Potential Growth Rate

• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ Ⅱ Ⅰ Ⅳ Ⅲ 198081 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Labour Input Capital Input Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Potential GDP Growth Rate

(Data Source) Cabinet Office (Percent)

Inward FDI Stocks

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

(At end of 2016)

(Percent of GDP)

Labor Force Participation Rate

14

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

（Percent)

Male Female

（2016）

(Data source) Statistics Bureau of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Total Fertility Rate

15 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

Number of births (right scale) Total fertility rate

(Data Source) Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.

Foreign Workers

• Japan

1.9 percent (2017）

• Germany

9.4 percent（2009）

• France

5.8 percent（2009）

• UK

9.6 percent（2015）

• USA

16.2 percent（2009）

• Korea

2.1 percent（2015）

• Singapore

38.2 percent（2015）

16

(Ratio to total labor force)

(Data Source) Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training, and Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.

Thank you for your attention!

International Christian University Tokyo, Japan Jun Saito