Assessment Agency: National institute for strategic policy analysis - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency:

• National institute for strategic

policy analysis

• Environment, nature,

spatial planning

• Independent, policy oriented,

scientifically sound

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 1

• Policy cycle
• Stages determine data needs
• Use of earth observation data in

policy development

• Examples: land subsidence and

the Global Land Outlook

• Portals
• Missing links
• What would we like to know?

Outline

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 2 Permission via UNCCD Secretariat, Global Land Outlook 1

Policy cycle

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 3

Rijksoverheid webportaal Communicatie

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 4

PBL

• Deforestation and REDD
• Air quality
• Climate and climate change
• Land use and land use change
• Crop yield predictions
• Early warning and emergency

responses

Uses in policy

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 5 Permission via UNCCD Secretariat, Global Land Outlook 1

Land subsidence

Steps:

• Satellite data
• Processing and combining
• Causes, effects, consequences
• Scenarios/extrapolation (future

problem) – models

• Goals, ambitions (political)
• Response inventory
• Response evaluation
• Costs action/inaction
• Policy decisions on measures
• Implementation
• Evaluation and monitoring

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 6

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 7

• PBL: outlook component
• Wageningen University,

Utrecht University, EC Joint Research Centre

Global Land Outlook

• Where (in the world) is land

condition changing?

• By how much?
• Is management or climate

driving that change?

• What are future impacts?
• What options do we have?
• How effective are they?

Global Land Outlook

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 8

21-02-2019 Stefan van der Esch | PBL 9

JRC; Global Land Outlook; World Atlas of Desertification

21-02-2019 Stefan van der Esch | PBL 10

Schut et al., 2015

Soil organic carbon

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 11

Situation in 2010 Projected change to 2050 Historic loss: most losses in agricultural production areas

• > also most potential for

restoration?

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 12

…and others

Portals

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 13

Takeaways:

• Use for policy is most often not direct
• Demands (speed, resolution,

repetition, accuracy) change dependent on phase in policy cycle

• Attribution (determining causes of
• bserved change) is where it often

gets difficult. But necessary to identify effective response options.

• Talk to science-policy organizations.

Missing links?

• Land management
• Soils, land degradation, forest

degradation

• Livestock, yields
• Water quality, rivers?
• People, economics, distribution

(e.g. land tenure)

• Ocean floor

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 14

Stefan van der Esch | PBL 15