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Assessing Risk of Death in People with Problematic Drug Use Dr Emma Fletcher , Jerusha Vithiyanandan, Dr Phyllis Easton, Dr Fiona Cowden, Dr Vered Hopkins, Superintendent John Wyllie, Professor Nick Fyfe Drug-related deaths in Scotland, 3- and


  1. Assessing Risk of Death in People with Problematic Drug Use Dr Emma Fletcher , Jerusha Vithiyanandan, Dr Phyllis Easton, Dr Fiona Cowden, Dr Vered Hopkins, Superintendent John Wyllie, Professor Nick Fyfe

  2. Drug-related deaths in Scotland, 3- and 5-year moving averages 1996-2018 Source: National Records of Scotland. Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2018

  3. Key findings in Tayside • Mean age 40.2 years • 60% deaths – people living in most deprived areas • 80% recorded as having experienced at least one adverse event in life • 46% had been in prison or on remand at least once

  4. Mental health co-morbidity 38 (49%) - mental health condition at time of death Further 19 (24%) - prior mental health condition Most commonly: • Depression – 30 (39%) • Anxiety – 15 (19%)

  5. Drugs referred to in death certificate 60 2016 2017 2018 50 40 Number 30 20 10 0 Morphine / Etizolam Methadone Pregabalin Diazepam Gabapentin Alprazolam Cocaine Alcohol Heroin 2016 38 21 31 12 17 13 1 1 5 2017 52 35 34 24 21 17 12 8 5 2018 48 49 38 32 22 18 10 16 11 2016 68% 38% 55% 21% 30% 23% 1.8% 1.8% 9% 2017 71% 48% 47% 33% 29% 23% 16% 11% 7% 2018 61% 63% 49% 41% 28% 23% 13% 20% 14%

  6. Risk factors identified to date…. • Male gender • Concurrent depression and or anxiety • Opioid use • (Barbituate use) • Co-morbid health conditions • Benzodiazepine prescription (1993-2004) • Shorter duration of methadone use / no OST • Prison liberation

  7. Our study… • Retrospective cohort study • Using the anonymised information from persons known to specialist substance misuse services in Tayside on 1 st Jan 2014 • Follow-up 5 years

  8. Data variables include… • Engagement with substance misuse services • Living circumstances • Employment • Co-morbidities • Significant life events • Police contact – y/n and date • Vulnerable persons database – y/n

  9. Progress to date • First proposed to ADPs and NHS Tayside in Spring 2018 • SIPR application • Confirmed funding – SIPR and ADPs x 3 • Post arrangements – University (2 schools), honorary NHS • Ethics application • NHS Tayside Research and Development . . .

  10. Purpose Produce recommendations that assist the police and partners to align prevention and intervention activities to achieve real world impact in reducing adverse outcomes of substance misuse, specifically rates of drug deaths.

  11. With many thanks to… • Jerusha Vithiyanandan • Dr Phyllis Easton • Dr Fiona Cowden • Dr Vered Hopkins, • Superintendent John Wyllie • Professor Nick Fyfe

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