ARC 2010: 01 Enrolment Presentation October 7 , 2 0 1 0 SCDSB - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ARC 2010: 01 Enrolment Presentation October 7 , 2 0 1 0 SCDSB Property and Planning Dept. 1 Geographic Information System (GIS) Central database Computer Mapping Application of Data Compiling And Analysis by School Student and School
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October 7 , 2 0 1 0 SCDSB Property and Planning Dept.
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Geographic Information System (GIS)
Computer Mapping Application of Data Compiling And Analysis by School
Student and School Location/Data (address/program etc) Development Unit Data School Attendance Areas Infrastructure Data (ie: road/density)
Central database
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School Enrolment Capacity
Primary Class Ministry Rated On The Ground (OTG) Apply Ministry Rating Audit each room by Each School Apply Ministry Loading Revise Ministry Rated Update SFIS Web Capacity
Effective OTG Capacity
Apply Ministry Rating
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Enrolment Projections
Existing Community New Community Historic 5 Year Retention by Grade By School Current Enrolment Total Enrolment Core Enrolment Interim Enrolment Special Program Enrolment
Existing Community Projection By School
Historic 5 Year Retention by Grade by School Calculate New Pupil Yield Calculate New Pupil By School Identify Development By School Incorporate New Pupils Phased in by School
New Community Projection by School Base 20 Year Projection By School
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JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE Total FTE 2005 35 27 36 35 38 40 41 47 39 41 16 391.5 360.5 2006 26
1.357
48
1.241
34
1.169
42
1.043
36
0.907
34
0.813
33
0.852
35
1.032
48
0.974
38 14 385.5 348.8 2007 33
1.250
33
1.147
55
1.075
36
1.120
47
1.153
42
1.000
34
1.031
34
1.232
43
1.042
50 24 428.0 395.3 2008 30
1.030
34
0.908
30
0.991
54
0.931
34
0.935
44
0.807
34
0.985
34
1.075
36
1.000
43 26 395.5 363.5 2009 32
1.100
33
1.029
35
1.169
35
0.991
54
0.896
30
0.977
43
1.060
36
1.104
37
1.139
41 17 390.5 358.0 2010 31
1.000
32
1.000
33
0.914
32
1.014
35
0.953
51
0.767
23
1.059
45
0.986
35
1.027
38 21 376.0 344.5
1.043 1.015 0.993 0.995 0.923 0.989 1.035 1.049 1.036
2011 31
1.043
32
1.015
32
0.993
33
0.983
31
0.927
32
0.989
50
1.051
24
1.054
47
1.049
37 21 372.2 340.5 2012 31
1.043
32
1.015
33
0.973
32
0.983
32
0.927
29
0.985
32
1.048
53
1.054
25
1.050
50 21 370.2 338.5 2013 31
1.046
32
1.015
33
0.973
32
0.993
31
0.925
30
0.985
29
1.045
33
1.049
55
1.060
27 21 354.9 323.1 2014 31
1.035
32
1.012
33
0.969
32
0.994
32
0.931
29
0.987
29
1.048
30
1.038
35
1.045
58 21 361.7 330.1 2015 31
1.042
32
1.014
33
0.980
32
0.989
31
0.926
29
0.987
29
1.047
31
1.049
32
1.048
36 21 337.3 305.7 2016 31
1.042
32
1.014
33
0.978
32
0.988
32
0.927
29
0.986
29
1.046
30
1.049
32
1.050
33 21 334.4 302.7 2017 31
1.042
32
1.014
33
0.975
32
0.989
31
0.927
29
0.986
29
1.047
30
1.048
32
1.051
34 21 334.6 302.9 2018 31
1.042
32
1.014
33
0.975
32
0.991
32
0.927
29
0.986
29
1.047
30
1.047
32
1.051
33 21 333.9 302.3 2019 31
1.041
32
1.013
33
0.975
32
0.990
32
0.928
29
0.986
29
1.047
30
1.046
32
1.049
33 21 333.9 302.3 2020 31
1.042
32
1.014
33
0.977
32
0.990
32
0.927
29
0.986
29
1.047
30
1.048
32
1.050
33 21 333.9 302.3 Flat line JK enrolm ent Retention rate for m
ent of Flat line SE students from grade to grade Enrolment Discounted retention rate due to Retention rate average Total bodies and abnomoly
Full Time Equilivant Existing grade enrolm ent tim es 5 year retention average results in projected grade enrolment for next year
Enrolment Methodology
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Byng PS: 2010 Enrolment by Grade
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade Students
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year Students
Byng PS Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected
Note: Enrolment based on Full Day Kindergarten
Ministry Capacity: 291
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Byng PS
OTG: 291
Status Quo
2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020
Option
104% Utilization 100% Utilization 100% Utilization 83% Utilization 80% Utilization 80% Utilization 100% Utilization 83% Utilization
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade Students
Clearview Meadows ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade
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C learv iew M eadow s ES: H istory, Actual, Projected
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
Year Students
Status Quo Option
Ministry Capacity: 201
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Clearview Meadows ES Accommodation
OTG: 201
Status Quo
2005 2010 2020 2011 2015 2020
Option
Transfer of 7 students from Duntroon Central PS to Clearview Meadows ES in September 2011 132% Utilization 126% Utilization 135% Utilization 135% Utilization 123% Utilization 132% Utilization 95% Utilization 119% Utilization
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade S tudents Duntroon Central PS: 2010 Enrolment by Grade
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year Students Duntroon Central PS Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected
Ministry Capacity: 121
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Duntroon Central PS Accommodation OTG: 121 Status Quo
2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2011 Transfer of 7 students from Duntroon Central PS to Clearview Meadows ES
Option
in September 2011 Transfer of 40 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawasag Creemore ES in September 2011 Transfer of 36 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawa ES in September 2011 64% Utilization 93% Utilization 80% Utilization 64% Utilization 80% Utilization
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade Students Nottawa ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade
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Nottawa ES: History, Actual, Projeced
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 2 2 2 5
Students Year
Status Quo Option
Ministry Capacity: 210
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Nottawa PS Accommodation OTG: 210 Status Quo
2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020
Option
Transfer of 36 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawa ES in September 2011 110% Utilization 96% Utilization 129% Utilization 119% Utilization 114% Utilization 94% Utilization 79% Utilization 130% Utilization
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade S tudents Nottawasaga Creemore ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade
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Nottawasaga Creemore ES: History, Actual, Projected
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
Year S tude nts
Status Quo Option
Ministry Capacity: 279
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Nottawasaga Creemore ES Accommodation OTG: 279 Status Quo
2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020
Option
Transfer of 42 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawasaga Creemore ES in September 2011 97% Utilization 84% Utilization 80% Utilization 99% Utilization 88% Utilization 82% Utilization 69% Utilization 65% Utilization
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50 100 150 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade S tu d e n ts ARC 2010 Enrolment by Grade
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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year S tu d e n ts Total ARC Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected
Ministry Capacity: 1102 Ministry Capacity: 981
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ARC 2010:01 Accommodation OTG: 1102 Status Quo
2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020
Option
( Less Duntroon Central PS) in September 2011 OTG reduced from 1102 to 981 110% Utilization 100% Utilization 93% Utilization 88% Utilization 83% Utilization 110% Utilization 100% Utilization 97% Utilization