ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2018
ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2018 AGENDA Year under review Financial performance Group performance Divisional performance Essential Foods Groceries International
ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2018
TERTIUS CARSTENS
SALIENT FEATURES
pleasing
FINANCIAL REVIEW
1 Adjusted for Phase I B-BBEE share-based payment charge and the related hedge, as well as items of a capital nature and, in 2017 only, once-off M&A costs
Twelve months to 30 September 2018 Volume +4% Revenue +3% to R20.2 billion Adjusted operating profit1 +26% to R1 603 million Operating margin From 6.5% to 8.0% Adjusted HEPS1 +25% to 553 cents Net cash profit from operating activities +25% to R2.1 billion Dividend for the year (Final 260 cents) 365 cents
TOTAL SA FOOD PERFORMANCE
YTD Sep 2018 12MM 6MM 3MM ASK’d Value 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% ASK’d Volume 3.7% 4.4% 5.5%
Muted value gain, volume recovery off very weak base
Source: ASK’d September 2018
Corporate Share1
Value Share by Brand
BRAND PERFORMANCE
1 Measured as weighted average of Pioneer Foods’ share in 18 categories in which it operates and reads. Nielsen Trade Desk, excluding DOB’s (New categories added include defined frozen prepared meals, defined cold sauces).
12MM OCT 2017 – SEP 2018
Value Share Share points change 31.2% 0.3% 25.8% 2.0% 30.7%
21.8%
15.5%
22.1%
27.8%
Bakery
Power Brands
Flour
Category growth 3.4% 12.6%
1.3% 7.8% 4.5% 6.4%
FELIX LOMBARD
GROUP PERFORMANCE
FINANCIAL REVIEW
4%
VOLUME
3%
REVENUE to R20.2 million
26%
ADJUSTED OPERATING PROFIT to R1 603 million
8.0%
OPERATING MARGIN from 6.5%
25%
ADJUSTED HEPS to 553 cents
25%
NET CASH PROFIT FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES to R2 073 million DIVIDEND DECLARED maintained at 365 cents NET DEBT (excl. BEE) Down to R442 million
Year ended September 2018
2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change Volumes (‘000 ton) 2 286 2 197 4 Revenue 20 152 19 575 3 Cost raw materials and packaging 11 420 11 845 4 Naked margin 8 732 7 730 13 Naked margin % 43.3% 39.5%
28.8% 26.3%
7 129 6 453 (10) Adjusted operating profit1 1 603 1 277 26 Adjusted operating margin 8.0% 6.5%
long life juice and export fruit the major volume performers (Acquisitions + 0.5%). Sales price deflation, mainly related to maize commodity deflation (Acquisitions + 1.5%). Margin recovery related to maize performance recovery. Operating cost contained. Per unit sold, inflation of 5%. Energy and distribution challenges (Acquisitions + 2%).
GROUP OPERATIONAL INCOME STATEMENT
1 Adjusted for Phase I B-BBEE share-based payment charge and the related hedge, as well as items of a capital nature and, in 2017 only, once-off M&A costs
2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change Revenue Essential Foods 11 859 12 470 (5) Groceries 5 120 4 403 16 International 3 173 2 702 17 Group 20 152 19 575 3 Adjusted operating profit1 Essential Foods 915 800 14 Groceries 419 357 17 International 285 121 136 Other (16) (1)
1 603 1 277 26
Essential Foods Volume growth and significant deflation. Maize major contributor to improvement in performance, wheaten value chain significantly weaker. Groceries Excellent growth in volumes from major categories. Gross margin maintained. International Major improvement in fruit profitability. Excellent growth in UK cereal volumes. Immediate profit contribution from Lizi’s.
SEGMENTAL PERFORMANCE
1 Adjusted for Phase I B-BBEE share-based payment charge and the related hedge, as well as items of a capital nature and, in 2017 only, once-off M&A costs
UNDERSTANDING ADJUSTMENTS
2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change Adjusted operating profit 1 603 1 277 26 Once-off merger and acquisition costs
related hedge (30) (103)
73 (57)
1 646 1 099 50 Investment income 28 22 27 Finance costs (198) (196) (1) Share of (loss)/profit of investments accounted for using the equity method
1 476 985 50 Income tax expense (399) (259) (54) Profit for the year 1 077 726 48
Sale of properties, captive listed shares and Heinz Foods SA JV to subsidiary. Heinz Foods SA performance. Pioneer Foods share price
valued while liability is phased
Turnover - PFG share Share of PAT1 2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change 2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change Other 193 179 8 26 20 30 Bokomo Botswana 464 555 (16) 19 18 6 Bokomo Namibia 272 279 (3) 1 8 (88) Heinz Foods SA 180 375 (52) (70) (27) (159) Food Concepts Pioneer Ltd
142 148 (4) 17 17
90 42 114 14 5 180 1 341 1 648 (18) 7 44 (84)
Namibia encountered challenging economic circumstances. Acquired March 2017. Performed well notwithstanding political challenges and liquidation of Nakumatt. Became a subsidiary during 2017. Once-off adjustments of certain items on the Heinz Foods SA balance sheet as well as poor
PERFORMANCE OF JOINT VENTURES AND ASSOCIATES
Very good performance from food coating business driven by strong volume growth. Botswana major overhaul of milling operations. Two months
rate thereafter.
1 Before items of a capital nature
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
2018 Rm 2017 Rm % Change Net cash profit from operating activities 2 073 1 661 25 Change in working capital 281 752 Inventory (38) 178 Debtors (20) 271 Creditors 339 303 Cash effect from hedging activities 2 166 Net cash generated by operations 2 356 2 579 Cash effect B-BBEE share-based payment charge and the related hedge (1) (28) Settlement of forward purchase contract on
Income tax paid (364) (288) Net cash flow from operating activities 1 991 1 770 12
Major contributors:
changed.
by Sunday year-end.
○ Inventory - Investment in S&OP. ○ Accounts payable - Interest rate differentials. Improved operating performance.
Continued strong cash generation
GROUP NET DEBT AND DEBT EQUITY RATIO
Excellent cash conversion:
management
○ Highest in 6 years Increased syndicated debt facilities at very competitive rates
DIVISIONAL PERFORMANCE
RIAAN HEYL
○ Industry capacity and competitive landscape
○ All 6 main categories (Trade Desk)1 ○ Essential Foods lower deflation than category (5 out of 6 including maize and bread)1
○ Significant down-trading observed
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Performance summary
1 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 12MM Sep 2018 2 Source: SAGIS
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Performance summary – 12 months ended 30 September 2018
Rice & maize, but all categories positive Bakeries +1% (Q4: +5%)
VOLUMES
Strong full year maize performance Wheat milling & baking remained under pressure
OPERATING PROFIT
R915M
Balance of Grains lost momentum in H2
OPERATING MARGIN
7.7%
2017: 6.4%
EXTERNAL REVENUE
R11.9BN
Maize deflation 22% Marginal inflation bread and rice only Generated R1.6bn cash from operations
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Maize
○ Raw material, consumer value, capacity
○ Fuel/transport cost impact on consumer ○ Deflation despite raw material inflation2 ○ DOB volume share of Trade Desk: 26% → 34%3
○ White Star value/volume share ratio: 1.11 → 1.253 ○ White Star RSP deflation 11% vs. category 25%3
○ Trade Desk Q4 volume leadership established3 ○ Enhanced overall category performance
1 Source: SAGIS 2 Source: SAFEX WM near month, STATS SA Food Price Monitor 3 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 3MM Sep 2017 vs. Sep 2018
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Maize OUTLOOK
○ Ample raw material and constrained consumer ○ Inflationary pressure across staple categories
○ Manage immediate raw material cost pressure ○ Restore White Star volume relevance ○ Investment in process innovation ○ Uncompromised White Star quality ○ Optimise sales mix ○ Sustain White Star brand support and leverage basket
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Wheat milling and baking
constrained ○ Industry milling capacity in a soft demand cycle ○ Inability to recover cost pressure
○ Some price relief noted in September 2018
○ Import duty, import origins, currency
effectiveness step-changed in H2 → volume traction ○ Production damages all time low ○ Bread quality improved ○ Increased Sasko bread availability and service ○ 6 700 additional outlets served on average daily September 2018 vs. 2017
1 Source: STATS SA Food Price Monitor
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Wheat milling and baking OUTLOOK
○ Bread growth ○ Supply chain efficiencies ○ Flour category participation
○ Availability and quality
ESSENTIAL FOODS
Pasta, rice, dried vegetables
○ H2 impacted by growth of imports and category deflation
○ Spekko market share restored post H1 supply chain disruptions
OUTLOOK
○ Recognised quality platform ○ Supply chain capabilities
DIVISIONAL PERFORMANCE
MARTIN NEETHLING
GROCERIES
categories
inflation vs. 2017
Heinz, John West, HP Sauce, Lea & Perrins
1 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 12MM Sep 2018 volume
Performance summary
GROCERIES
Performance summary – 12 months ended 30 September 2018
Driven by cereals, LLFJ and Wellington’s Cereals +22% LLFJ +28%
VOLUMES
EXTERNAL REVENUE
R5.1BN
Wellington’s adds 4%, Organic growth of 12% Portfolio inflation of 1.3% Moderate inflation
OPERATING MARGIN
8.2%
2017: 8.1% Strong cereals and LLFJ performance
OPERATING PROFIT
R419M
Snacks, dilutables and Lipton regress, Wellington’s dilutes profitability Wellington’s contributes to 0.6pp margin dilution
GROCERIES
Cereals
and Pronutro achieves 3 year market share high
close management of relative shelf pricing
major retailer past 3 months
1 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 6MM March 2018 2 Morgan Stanley report, 30 October 2018
GROCERIES
value market share growth1. Ceres and Fruitree also gain share
assisted to “restore the core”
volumes recovered in H2
1 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 12MM Sep 2018 2 Morgan Stanley report, 30 October 2018
Beverages
GROCERIES
basket growing 14.4%1
Heinz basket growing 26%1
service levels
1 Source: Nielsen Trade Desk 3MM Sep 2018
Pioneer Foods Wellington’s (previously Heinz Foods SA)
GROCERIES
Balance of Portfolio
mix
category
full year effect enjoyed
market share
GROCERIES
Outlook
planned
DIVISIONAL PERFORMANCE
THUSHEN GOVENDER
INTERNATIONAL
Performance summary – 12 months ended 30 September 2018
Fruit and beverage exports delivered Lizi’s (UK) acquisition contributed
VOLUMES
EXTERNAL REVENUE R3.2BN
Continued traction in Nigeria Vine fruit USD export prices at all time high
OPERATING MARGIN 9%
OPERATING PROFIT R285M
Nigeria and UK contribution increasing Fruit availability, Mozambican recovery Strong performance across portfolio Weaker rand delivers margin enhancement 2017: 4.5%
INTERNATIONAL
Consumer Exports
route to market models
beverage team within the WEA JV
remain an issue
delivery
Increasing focus on brand development
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
Fruit Exports
quality
○ Vine fruit quality ○ Short US crop ○ Short Greece currant crop
particular apricots
local surplus of peaches and pears
INTERNATIONAL
United Kingdom
○ Brand architecture updated to appeal to a broader target market ○ Price/margin focus reduces volume however enhances profitability
decline
○ Adjacent category entry, breakfast drinks ○ Relaunch of kids product offering
ahead of inflation
INTERNATIONAL
Nigeria
category
the Yum Yum brand
distribution hubs and vehicles
business platform
INTERNATIONAL
Outlook
○ Branded contribution in the UK enabled by inorganic growth ○ Incremental low risk entry into Nigeria on track - new bakery to be commissioned in H2 ○ Establishment of a regional hub via the WEA acquisition ○ Commenced work on new market entry in Africa with an international JV partner
○ Market development work continues
efficiencies remain key
TERTIUS CARSTENS
SUSTAINABILITY
○ School Breakfast Nutrition Programme ○ 6 provinces, 29 schools, 26 000 learners
○ 4 x Majority black-owned commercial farms ○ 7 x Independent Distribution Contractors, with R21m in loans advanced and 191 jobs created
○ 55 bursary students, community and youth projects
○ Water conservation success across the business Flagship projects
TERTIUS CARSTENS
STRATEGIC FOCUS
Profitable growth
○ Alternative routes to market - local and export ○ Innovation - highly selective approach ○ Smaller categories to contribute
○ Operating cost discipline ○ Process efficiency fixation ○ Logistics network enhanced ○ SAP ERP refresh and future readiness
○ M&A work in progress, price expectations pose a barrier
○ Baking capacity in Lagos, Nigeria ○ Exploring similar approaches elsewhere in Africa
EXPECTATIONS
efficiency Facing the challenges
This document contains forward looking statements that, unless otherwise indicated, reflect the company’s expectations as at 19 November
estimates or assumptions prove to be inaccurate. The company cannot guarantee that any forward looking statement will materialise and, accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. The company disclaims any intention and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statement even if new information becomes available as a result of future events