Anglo American Platinum Limited
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s 12th annual Sun city conference March 2011
Anglo American Platinum Limited Bank of America Merrill Lynchs 12 th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Anglo American Platinum Limited Bank of America Merrill Lynchs 12 th annual Sun city conference March 2011 DISCLAIMER: CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain statements made in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s 12th annual Sun city conference March 2011
DISCLAIMER: CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements made in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as 'believes', 'expects', 'may', 'will', 'could', 'should', 'intends', 'estimates', 'plans', 'assumes' or 'anticipates' or the negative thereof or
events, or strategy that involve risks and uncertainties. Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company's control and all of which are based on the Company's current beliefs and expectations about future events. Such statements are based on current expectations and, by their nature, are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, expressed
achieved; actual events or results may differ materially as a result of risks and uncertainties facing the Company and its subsidiaries. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation and the Company undertakes no duty to, and will not necessarily, update any of them in light of new information or future events, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation.
PLATINUM
– Analysis of recent changes in realised basket price – Global platinum demand update - autocatalyst – Global platinum demand update – jewellery – Global platinum demand update - ETFs – Snapshot of platinum demand and supply – Snapshot of palladium demand and supply
– Strategy – Anglo Platinum at a glance – Safety performance profile – Cost management initiatives – Summary of FY10 performance – Capex analysis – 2011 outlook
PLATINUM
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Realised basket price continuing to strengthen
Source: Johnson Matthey and Anglo Platinum * YTD prices refer to prices up to 23 March 2011
Spot platinum price Anglo Platinum’s realised basket price
700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 US$/oz Platinum spot FY09 average platinum spot FY10 average platinum spot FY10 YTD FY11 YTD
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Rand basket price ZAR basket price FY09 average basket price FY10 average basket price 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Rand basket price ZAR basket price FY09 average basket price FY10 average basket price
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18% 18% 17% 15% 15% 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW 18% 18% 17% 15% 15% 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW
Autocatalyst demand recovering: Net demand for platinum up 39% in 2010
units in 2010, c.14% higher year on year
million in 2009 to c.73 million units in 2010
2010, driven by increased fleet purchases
days in 2010
increase from 73 million units in 2010 to 96 million in 2015, CAGR of 6% between 2011 and 2015 Global light duty vehicle production forecast Regional diesel share of light duty vehicle production
10 20 30 40 50 60 Europe Japan China North America Rest of World Diesel market share (%) 2010 2013
40 60 80 100 120 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Total vehicle production (m)
10 15 20 25 Diesel vehicle production (m) Total Light Duty Vehicle Production Total Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Production
Source: Global Insight and Johnson Matthey
Split of gross autocataytic platinum demand by region
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14% 12% 26% 26% 27% 68% 74% 51% 51% 48% 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW 14% 12% 26% 26% 27% 68% 74% 51% 51% 48% 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW
demand in 2010
despite c.21% decline in 2010 due to higher metal price
demand remained largely flat in 2010
world economic conditions. Jewellery development program in India is starting to yield results
Platinum jewellery demand remain resilient
Source: SGE, Johnson Matthey
Shanghai Pt Retail Price and Margins (monthly average)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
RMB per gram
Average Shanghai Price RMB/gram Average JM Base Price RMB/gram
Split of gross platinum jewellery demand by region
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 Kg Monthly average volume
SGE average daily trade
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– Palladium holdings declined by 5% over the same period Palladium ETF positions Platinum ETF positions
Stronger investment demand reflects positively on the outlook
Source: ZBK, ETF Securities, Julius Baer and Renaissance BJM
250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 Platinum ETF ounces 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 ETC ZKB US ETC JB US$/oz 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Palladium ETF ounces 200 400 600 800 1,000 ETC ZKB US ETC JB US$/oz
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33% 25% 41% 48% 47% 29% 42% 22% 22% 25%
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Autocatalyst Jewellery Chemical Other industrial Investment 33% 25% 41% 48% 47% 29% 42% 22% 22% 25%
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Autocatalyst Jewellery Chemical Other industrial Investment 15% 15% 22% 16% 17% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW 15% 15% 22% 16% 17% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW
78% 77% 76% 77% 76% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz South Africa Russia NA Zimbabwe Others 78% 77% 76% 77% 76% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz South Africa Russia NA Zimbabwe Others
continued strength from autocatalyst and industrial demand, resilient jewellery markets and continued investor interest
improved recovery in Western markets and continued strong growth from BRIC countries
penetration in China and India (in the longer term)
strong increases in demand from the electronics and glass manufacturing sectors
Snapshot of platinum demand and supply
Source: Johnson Matthey
Global platinum demand by region Global platinum supply by region Global platinum demand by application
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16% 17% 20% 19% 20% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW 16% 17% 20% 19% 20% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Europe Japan NA China ROW 54% 49% 50% 52% 49% 8% 11% 13% 10% 15% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Autocatalyst Jewellery Electrical Other industrial Investment 54% 49% 50% 52% 49% 8% 11% 13% 10% 15% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz Autocatalyst Jewellery Electrical Other industrial Investment
2011 due to continued strength in autocatalyst and industrial demand and resilient investor interest
palladium due robust vehicle demand in gasoline dominated BRIC countries and a continued recovery in the US market
autocatalysts remains an underpin
demand from other industrial sectors due to its price advantage
Snapshot of palladium demand and supply
Source: SGE, Johnson Matthey
Global palladium demand by region Global palladium supply by region Global palladium demand by application
52% 51% 50% 53% 49% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz South Africa Russia NA Zimbabwe Others 52% 51% 50% 53% 49% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 koz South Africa Russia NA Zimbabwe Others
PLATINUM
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Our strategy is to maximise value by understanding and developing the market for platinum group metals, to expand our production into that
cost-effectively and competitively Safe, Profitable Platinum
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Anglo platinum at a glance – Assets
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Anglo platinum at a glance – Unique competitive advantages
Unique competitive advantages
project level Extensive high quality ore reserves and resources
171m oz (4E) – Implied life of mines: c.39 years
620m oz (4E) – Implied life of mines: c.142 years
+100 years
Platinum miners' resources and reserves (Moz of 4E) Angloplat Impala* Northam Lonmin Resources 619.5 397 128.95 181.1 Attributable reserves (Moz of 4E) Merensky 22.5 17.6 3.5
13.4
UG2 87.6 25.3 4.7
32.5
Platreef 55.3
5.9 20.6
171.3 63.5 8.1 45.9
Source: Company reports and Anglo Platinum. *Impala reports 3E resource
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Anglo platinum at a glance – Key challenges and opportunities
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to 1.17 in FY10
2.03 1.74 1.37 1.16 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2007 2008 2009 2010
Safety – Zero harm is achievable
Lost-time injury frequency rate: down 42% since 2007
1.17 25 18 14 8
10 15 20 25 30 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of fatalities: down 68% since 2007
– Dishaba mine: > 4 million fatality free shifts – Tumela mine: > 4 million fatality free shifts – Khomanani Mine: 3.6 million fatality free shifts – Khuseleka Mine: 2.9 million fatality free shifts – Mogalakwena: 1 million fatality free shifts – PMR: 2 million LTI free hours
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Cost management – Unit cost inflation well contained
– Reduced our employee complement by 20% or 19,000 people since 2008 – Improving labour productivity from 7.06m2 in 2010 to 7.3m2 in 2011 – Reducing overhead and allocated costs – Improving efficiency of infrastructure
Cash operating cost per equivalent refined Pt oz
efficiency improvements – Chairlifts: New installs and upgrades – Conveyor belt upgrades and automation – Horizontal people transportation: train carriages to transport people – Loco replacements: Replaced 5t locos with 10t locos; and reduced labour and the number of locos by 77
Cash on-mine cost per tonne milled
11,096 11,236 11,730 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2008 2009 2010 R/oz 11,096 11,236 11,730 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2008 2009 2010 R/oz 475 453 472 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 R/t 475 453 472 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 R/t
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Unit cost management initiatives proving effective
10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 11,236 479 337
275 11,730 4.3% 3.0%
2.4% 4.4% 2009 Actual Inflation Production Labour cost Operating cost (excl. labour) 2010 Actual Rand per equivalent refined platinum ounce
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Cost management – Improving the efficiency of our infrastructure
and design of new mining areas – Example: transition from manual to hybrid mining at Union
capacity and maximise low cost
– Example 2: Increase UG2 production close to existing shafts whilst reducing Merensky mining at a distance
– Example: Closure of Thembelani 1 shaft to route all activity through Thembelani 2 shaft, once completed
refurbishment strategies – Example 1: Salvage and reuse of mining equipment – Example 2: In-sourcing of equipment repair and maintenance
Surface outcrop decline shaft access First generation vertical shaft Second and third generation shafts Merensky reef 4-6 g/t, narrow width ‘Short’ distance between reefs 40 – 100m UG2 reef 3-5 g/t, wide, high Chrome Anglo Platinum ‘typical’ Impala Platinum ‘typical’ Brownfields project Co-extraction Average Depth 0 – 1200m mined out reef
Southern African Bushveld Platinum mining
At Rustenburg, c.70% of employees are more than 2.5 km away from infrastructure, vs. c.30% at Impala’s Lease Area
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Asset Optimisation:
US$583 million in 2010, vs. target of US$577 million
million in 2011
Asset Optimisation: Main contributing projects
Supply Chain:
in 2010, vs. target of US$195 million
US$280 million in 2011
Supply Chain: Main contributing projects
Achieving sustainable cost savings through asset optimisation and supply chain
*Including joint ventures, intercompany transactions and working capital
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4.3 4.4 4.4 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.64 2.62 2.6 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F g/t Head grade (4E) Reserve grade 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.64 2.62 2.6 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F g/t Head grade (4E) Reserve grade 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 g/t 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % of UG2 Head grade (4E) UG2 mined to total output 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 g/t 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % of UG2 Head grade (4E) UG2 mined to total output
Cost management – Delivering sustainable improvement in grades and recoveries
2009: 3.23 g/t milled on higher UG2 mining and increased processing of surface stockpiles
and UG2 output: 2004: 48% to 2010: 71%
development Group head grade vs UG2 mining profile
exacerbated by following
– Processing of lower grade surface stockpiles at Tumela (following shaft barrel and haulage failures) and Union (following geological issues at Richard shaft and new cluster mining at the Declines – Planned move from Zwartfontein to North pit at Mogalakwena resulted in the processing of low grade stockpiles – Head grade is expected to improve in 2011 due to an increase in the processing of underground ore Mogalakwena’s reserve grade vs head grade
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Summary of FY10 performance – Financials R million FY 2010 FY 2009 Change Basket price per Pt oz ($) 2,491 1,715 45% p Basket price per Pt oz (R) 18,159 14,115
29%
p Net sales revenue 46,025 36,687 25% p EBITDA
11,271 4,936 128%
p Operating profit 7,253 921 688% p Headline earnings 4,931 710
595%
p Headline earnings per share (cents) 1,935 289 570% p Ordinary dividends
1,787 –
p Ordinary dividends per share (cents) 6.83
–
p Operating free cash flow
7,783 1,778 338%
p Capital expenditure (excl. interest capitalised) 7,244 9,732
26%
q Net debt
4,111 19,261 79%
q
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Summary of FY10 performance – Update on operational challenges experienced during FY10
changeover to owner maintenance of equipment at Decline section
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Capex analysis – A shift towards smarter spending Total Capex spend reduced in recent years...
2009 2006 2007 2008
9.7 13.1 10.4 6.4
2010
7.2 Waste stripping Projects Stay in business
...due to:
Optimisation
non-critical path items …with no compromise on near term projects
Mogalakwena, Thembelani 2 shaft
expansion
incorporated into ounce profile
Rbn
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Capex analysis – A premium project pipeline supports our operational strategy and flexibility
CONCEPT PRE-FEASIBILITY FEASIBILITY IMPLEMENTATION STEADY STATE
Plant
Shafts Phase 2*
Upgrade
Merensky Shaft*
Replacement
1*
Mine
*Joint venture
Mill Floatation Upgrade
Phase2
Expansion Phase 2
Concentrator
Decline 37L+
24 Level
Ext 28-30 Level
To UG2 Conversion
Phase 3*
Decline Ext 34L+
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2011 outlook is positive
–Projects: R4.0 billion; SIB: R3.5 billion, Waste-stripping R0.5 billion
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Zimbabwean indigenisation – our view
– Agreement was negotiated within the context of the indigenisation regulations as it was drafted at the time when the Zimbabwean government was drafting these regulations – The gist of our agreement is that we surrendered two properties (Kironde and Bugai) and were awarded 30% empowerment credit –And therefore, we only need to do an equity deal of 21% in order to comply with these regulations
we have a number of options which we can exploit in order to protect our rights as negotiated in the Special Mining Lease suite of agreements with the Zimbabwean government.
highlighting that if the Zimbabwean government honour our agreement we will be prepared to invest more in capital in Zimbabwe
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Our story
– Strategic industrial metals – Strong demand recovery – restocking, industrial and autocat demand returning, Chinese jewellery to remain a healthy market – Geological concentration and scarcity of PGMs – Stable industry structure – well established fabricators and users – concentrated supply
– Commitment to optimising value from diverse portfolio of assets – Additional output from lower cost operations can be flexed to meet production targets – Disciplined capital allocation – Rigorous cost management, including supply chain and asset optimisation initiatives, increased productivity and efficient use of infrastructure
– Largest suite of mining, smelting and refining assets in industry – c.40% of primary global platinum market; c.21% share of primary global palladium market
– Largest resources and reserves of any PGM player – Unrivalled PGM optionality through portfolio of assets and presence on all four Southern African reefs
PLATINUM