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1 ANDES progress Meeting WP2: Uncertainties and covariances of nuclear data Task 2.4: Covariances for activation, decay and fission yields O. Cabellos Universidad Politcnica de Madrid (UPM) 19th November, 2010 NEA Data Bank,

SLIDE 1

ANDES progress Meeting

WP2: Uncertainties and covariances of nuclear data

Task 2.4: Covariances for activation, decay and fission yields

O. Cabellos

Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) 19th November, 2010 NEA Data Bank, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France

SLIDE 2

PART I. Participation in Meetings/Workshops

I.1. “Specific Applications on Research Reactors: Provision of Nuclear Data”, IAEA- Oct 09 I.2. “Neutron Cross-Section Covariances: Users’ perspectives”, IAEA-Sep 10 I.3. 2nd DAE- BRNS Workshop on "Covariance Error Matrix and its Applications in Reactor Fuel Cycle and Technology”, Nov 10

PART II. Identifying subtasks PART III. Technical progress

III.1 Fission pulse decay heat calculations III.2 Decay heat/Radiotoxicity: EFIT 150 GWd/TMU

PART IV. Report of first results

IV.1 ND2010- Apr 10 IV.2 MC2011- May 11

PART V. On going work – next 6 months

SLIDE 3

An extensive work on nuclear data needs is being performed (e.g. innovative power reactors and fuel cycles, fusion applications, …)

Expert group of OECD/NEA:

M. Salvatores et al., “OECD/NEA WPEC Subgroup 26 Final Report: Uncertainty and Target Accuracy Assessment for Innovative

Systems Using Recent Covariance Data Evaluations” 2008.

Work package of the NUDATRA domain IP-EUROTRANS

J. Sanz et al., Report of the numerical results from the evaluation of the nuclear data sensitivities, priority list and table of required

accuracies for nuclear data, Deliverable D5.11, Domain DM5 NUDATRA, Workpackage 5.1 (Feb, 2009).

“Accurate Nuclear Data for Nuclear Energy Sustainability” (ANDES), within Euratom Call FP7- Fission-2009:

1) Improve differential measurements for advanced reactor systems 2) Uncertainty and covariance of nuclear data: evaluators+users “In order to improve codes to handle the complete set of uncertainty/covariance data (i.e. those of nuclear reactions, radioactive decay and fission yield data) to illustrate the potential benefit of generalizing the assessment

f simulation results with full uncertainties propagation”

3) Integral experiments for validation of ND and constraints on uncertainties

Highest-priority isotopes/reactions (e.g. fast systems and waste minimization technologies)

OECD-NEA High Priority Data Request List INDC(NDS)-0574, Proceedings of the IAEA Technical Meeting in collaboration with NEA on Specific Applications of Research Reactors: Provision of Nuclear Data

And more…

PART I. Particip. in Meetings/Workshops

SLIDE 4

Conclusions/Recommendations:

1. …

…

7. “Encourage experimental and evaluation efforts on establishment and/or improvement of covariance matrices

relevant to reaction x-sections, propagation of associated uncertainties (reaction rates and decay data) in particular in material depletion/transmutation calculations”

PART I. Particip. in Meetings/Workshops

SLIDE 5

PART II. Identifying subtasks (32)

Proyecto ANDES

Milestone 2.2 Title

Report on the usability of Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation in fuel cycle codes, and comparison with conventional approach

1) Generación de 1000 librerías + librería unificada con TALYS, para la prueba de principio (pocos isótopos, caso simplificado) 2) Procesamiento de las 1000 librerías de activación de tarea (1) a formato EAF para ACAB 2bis) Mejora del programa PROCLIB (+ NJOY updates + processing isomeric states) 3) Definición del caso simplificado 4) Cálculos con ACAB del caso simplificado con las 1000 librerías 5) Evaluación estadística de la influencia del número de librerías (si 1000, si 500, si más ...) 6) Procesamiento de la librería unificada con covarianzas (formato ENDF-MF33) y búsqueda de una estructura optimizada de multigrupos (15, 44, ...) 7) Análisis de esas matrices de covarianzas en multigrupos (visualización, test de sus propiedades con programas ANGELO, LAMBDA) 8) Cálculos con ACAB del caso simplificado con la librería unificada 9) Comparación y análisis de resultados de tareas 4 y 8: Assess wheter Total Monte Carlo is possible 10) Generación de 1000 librerías + librería unificada con TALYS para actínidos+FP para cálculos realistas de diferentes “advanced reactor systems”: ESFR, RED-IMPACT, … 11) Calculos realistas con ACAB para diferentes “advanced reactor systems” con las 1000 librerías 12) Calculos realistas con ACAB para diferentes “advanced reactor systems” con la librería unificada 13) Comparación y análisis de resultados de tareas 11 y 12: Assess wheter Total Monte Carlo is possible 14) Resultados con la EAF2010 y comparación con resultados de tareas 11 y 12) 15) Resultados con otras librerías con cross-reactions: SCALE6.0, ... y comparación con resultados de tareas 11 y 12) 16) Other activities: Study Total Monte Carlo directly from ENDF-MF33, …

An upgraded ACAB code, which now will deal with

Procesamiento de otras librerías con cross-reactions: ZZ-COV, SCALE6.0, NNDC, …y comparación con librería unificada Resultados del problema simplicado con otras librerías con cross-reactions (ZZ-COV, SCALE6.0, NNDC, …) y comparación con resultados de tarea 8) Calculos realistas para diferentes “advanced reactor systems”: ESFR, RED-IMPACT, …con incertidumbres en todos los datos nucleares

SLIDE 6

PART II. Identifying subtasks ( cont.)

Generación de 1000 librerías + librería unificada con TALYS para actínidos+FP para cálculos realistas de diferentes “advanced reactor systems”: ESFR, RED-IMPACT, … Calculos realistas con ACAB para diferentes “advanced reactor systems” con las 1000 librerías Calculos realistas con ACAB para diferentes “advanced reactor systems” con la librería unificada Other activities: Study Total Monte Carlo directly from ENDF-MF33, … Milestone 2.3

An upgraded ACAB code, which now will deal with cross-channel and cross-nuclide correlations

17) Modificaciones en COLLAPS para tener en cuenta cross-channel y cross-nuclide correlations: generación de la matriz de covarianzas global 18) Modificaciones en la metodología de sensibilidad de ACAB 19) Modificaciones en la metodología de Monte Carlo de ACAB: descomposición de Cholesky 20) Implementación de previas metodologías en sistema ACAB que esté actualizando Paco 21) Procesamiento de otras librerías con cross-reactions: ZZ-COV, SCALE6.0, NNDC, …y comparación con librería unificada 22) Resultados del problema simplicado con otras librerías con cross-reactions (ZZ-COV, SCALE6.0, NNDC, …) y comparación con resultados de tarea 8) Milestone 2.4

New computational method for the use of covariance information

f reaction, decay and fission yield data in an inventory calculation

23) Justificación/Análisis del beneficio potencial de considerar incertidumbres en todos los datos nucleares 24) Modificar COLLAPS para fission yield collapsing sin incertidumbres 25) Metodología para tratar incertidumbres en fission yields: varianzas/covarianzas (si NNL da covarianzas) 26) Metodología para tratar incertidumbres en datos de decay: varianzas/covarianzas (si NNL da covarianzas) 27) Implementación de previas metodologías en sistema ACAB que esté actualizando Paco 28) Calculos realistas para diferentes “advanced reactor systems”: ESFR, RED-IMPACT, …con incertidumbres en todos los datos nucleares (coordinación con CIEMAT para conseguir datos necesarios para ACAB. Estos serían también de aplicación en las tareas 11 y 12) 29) Assess the target accuracies required/need for transmutation calculations 30) Cross-section optimization process: Only variances/default correlation matrix 31) Define a High-priority list of reactions, decays and fission yields, to be included in HighPriorityList / NEA 32) Others: Assessment of the impact of other parameters: irradiation time, initial composition, power, ...

SLIDE 7

PART III. Technical progress

III.1 Fission pulse decay heat calculations

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 1.0E+05

Cooling time (s) Heat rate per fission x time (Mev/s /fission·s)

Mean value Mean value unc. known

Ref. value without unc.

Tobias (1989) Pu239 Thermal neutrons

SLIDE 8

0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 1.0E+05

Cooling time (s) C/E

0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2

Error C/E

"C/E JEFF-3.1.1" "Mean Value C/E JEFF-3.1.1" Tobias 1989 Error FY/Decay/Energy Error FY Error Energy Error Decay

III.1 Fission pulse DH

Pu239 Thermal neutrons

For rapid reactor transients, the

prediction of DH is important in the range of seconds to minutes

Identical C/E results reported in

JEFF report 20 with FISPIN code

Tobias (1989) reviewed the status
f DH exp. using 45 sets of exp.

measurements

Differences between: “C/E” and

“Mean Value C/E”

It is shown the experimentally

derived uncertainties 1 STD (green line)

Uncertainties in calculated values

are shown: Decay/Energy/FY and Total

SLIDE 9

PART III. Technical progress

III.2 EFIT 150 GWd/TMU

1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 1.0E+05 1.0E+06 1.0E+07 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06

Cooling time (years) Decay Heat (W)

2 4 6 8 10

Relative error (%).

Decay Heat (W) RE (%) total RE (%) XS RE (%) decay RE (%) FY

SLIDE 10

PART IV. Report of first results

IV.1 ND2010- Apr 10

In this paper, we assess the impact of ND uncertainties on the isotopic prediction for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) for a discharge burnup of 150 GWd/tHM. Calculations for discharge burn-up: 150 GWd/tHM (778 irradiation days), corresponding to an equilibrium cycle.

1,E-09 1,E-08 1,E-07 1,E-06 1,E-05 1,E-04 1,E-03 1,E-06 1,E-05 1,E-04 1,E-03 1,E-02 1,E-01 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 Eneutron (MeV) Normalized Neutron Flux Initial 400 days Initial total flux intensity = 2.84E+15 n cm-2s-1 400 days total flux intensity = 3.12E+15 n cm-2s-1

Neutron flux spectrum

Uncertainty data for cross sections (EAF2007/UN, SCALE6.0/COVA-44G), radioactive decay and fission yield data (JEFF-3.1.1) are processed and used in ACAB code

PROPAGATION OF NUCLEAR DATA UNCERTAINTIES IN TRANSMUTATION CALCULATIONS USING ACAB CODE

O. Cabellos et al.

SLIDE 11

Uncertainty (%) due to: Nuclide Ni (#atoms) Nf-Ni (#atoms) s XS EAF XS SCALE

232U

4.37E+20

5.2 9.8 1.0

233U

1.57E+21

0.1 12.6 14.9

234U

7.67E+25 6.79E+25 0.0 4.6 1.9

235U

1.84E+25 1.83E+25 0.0 13.2 3.0

236U

2.54E+25 2.46E+25 0.0 1.8 2.3

237U

2.33E+18 4.07E+22 0.1 7.9 3.5

238U

1.30E+23 1.27E+23 0.0 1.3 2.2

237Np

2.25E+26 1.39E+26 0.0 6.1 1.4

238Np

6.07E+18 2.40E+23 0.1 7.8 1.8

239Np

2.75E+20 5.67E+20 0.2 16.3 15.9

238Pu

4.26E+26 3.99E+26 0.0 4.3 2.5

239Pu

5.21E+26 3.50E+26 0.0 4.8 1.3

240Pu

1.73E+27 1.44E+27 0.0 1.9 0.3

241Pu

3.13E+26 3.01E+26 0.0 8.3 0.9

242Pu

7.50E+26 6.77E+26 0.0 2.2 0.7

244Pu

1.55E+23 1.83E+23 0.0 4.0 2.2 Uncertainty (%) due to: Nuclide Ni (#atoms) Nf-Ni (#atoms) s XS EAF XS SCALE

241Am

3.50E+26 2.25E+26 0.0 7.0 2.0

242Am

3.81E+20 1.31E+23 0.2 8.6 2.6

242mAm

2.96E+25 1.81E+25 0.0 12.8 6.4

243Am

3.14E+26 2.78E+26 0.0 6.1 1.4

242Cm

3.17E+23 2.64E+25 0.1 10.4 3.4

243Cm

3.10E+24 3.64E+24 0.2 23.4 11.7

244Cm

2.67E+26 2.92E+26 0.0 6.2 3.1

245Cm

7.82E+25 7.57E+25 0.0 13.2 9.7

246Cm

5.20E+25 5.19E+25 0.0 7.3 3.5

247Cm

1.12E+25 1.11E+25 0.0 15.7 11.0

248Cm

8.33E+24 8.79E+24 0.0 6.6 4.3

249Bk

3.28E+23

1.0 20.2 17.3

249Cf

2.72E+23

1.1 20.4 17.9

250Cf

8.42E+22

0.4 30.6 24.2

251Cf

5.03E+21

0.3 44.0 30.3

252Cf

1.03E+20

0.3 56.4 35.6

U Pu Np Np

M M n n 232 236 236 ) 2 , ( 237 T1/2( 236MNp)=1.3%, and branching error=8%)

Uncertainty for relevant actinides

SLIDE 12

Uncertainty in % due to Nuclide Ni (#atoms) Nf-Ni (#atoms) s s XS EAF XS SCALE

79Se

2.25E+23

0.00 5.9 4.3 1.6

93M Nb

1.81E+19

6.19 2.9 3.5 1.3

94Nb

1.39E+20

0.03 5.9 17.6 4.6

93Mo

1.45E+18

0.01 2.7 82.6 1.2

103Rh

1.01E+25 4.51E+25 0.00 3.7 5.2 1.7

107Pd

6.57E+24 2.86E+25 0.01 4.0 4.9 2.3

109Ag

3.56E+24 1.74E+25 0.02 3.9 5.4 2.7

126Sn

2.02E+24

0.00 7.2 4.8 2.1

126Sb

2.90E+21 5.21 9.2 9.0 3.3

126M Sb

4.43E+18

1.05 7.5 16.4

1. 9

129I

1.06E+25

0.07 4.1 4.7 2.1

149Sm

2.41E+24 7.27E+24 0.00 3.6

6. 8

4.5

150Sm

1.59E+23 4.41E+24 0.01 3.0 11.0 7.7

151Sm

1.47E+24 3.64E+24 0.05 4.2 10.9 6.7

152Sm

1.38E+24 7.56E+24 0.01 3.1 6.6 4.0

151Eu

3.74E+22

6.66 3.8 9.8 6.5

153Eu

8.97E+23 2.75E+24 0.01 4.4 14.6 5.2

155Gd

2.87E+23

0.26 7.1 7.8 3.8

Uncertainty for FPs

This Table shows nuclides with a global uncertainty value above 6%

) var( ) var( ) var( ) var( N N N N

We assume that , and are not correlated: Isotopes with total relative error > 10%

Due to XS

94Nb, 126Sb , 126MSb, 150Sm, 151Sm, 151Eu,

153Eu, 155Gd

93Mo (← 95Mo(n,3n) with EAF rel.err 68%)

Due to yields

126Sb

Due to decay data

151Eu (← 151Sm with rel.err in T1/2=6.7%)

SLIDE 13

PART IV. Report of first results

IV.2 MC2011- May 11

PROPAGATION OF NUCLEAR DATA UNCERTAINTIES USING MONTE-CARLO TECHNIQUE IN DEPLETION AND COOLING TIME ISOTOPIC PREDICTIONS C.J. Díez, O. Cabellos, J.S. Martínez

ABSTRACT Nowadays, the knowledge of uncertainty propagation in depletion calculations is a critical issue because of safety and economical performance of fuel cycles. Response magnitudes such as decay heat, radiotoxicity and isotopic inventory and their uncertainties should be known to handle spent fuel in present fuel cycles (e.g. high burnup fuel programme) and furthermore in new fuel cycles designs (e.g. fast breeder reactors and ADS). To deal with this task, there are different error propagation techniques, deterministic (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis) and stochastic (Monte-Carlo technique) to evaluate the error in response magnitudes due to nuclear data uncertainties. In previous works, only cross-section uncertainties were propagated using a Monte-Carlo technique. In this paper, following the previous technique, decay data and fission yields uncertainties are taking into account and the response magnitude uncertainties are assessed during cooling time. To evaluate this Monte-Carlo technique, two different applications were performed. First, a fission pulse decay calculation is carried on to check the Monte-Carlo technique, using decay data and fission yields uncertainties. Then, the results, experimental data and other calculations (JEFF Report20) are compared. Second, we assess the impact of basic nuclear data (activation cross-section, decay data and fission yields) uncertainties on relevant fuel cycle parameters (decay heat and radiotoxicity) for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) fuel cycle. After identifying which time steps have higher uncertainties, an assessment of which uncertainties have more relevance is performed. All these calculations propagate all uncertainties in nuclear data: radioactive decay and fission yields data from JEFF-3.1.1 and activation cross-section data from EAF-2007/UN.

SLIDE 14

PART V. On going work – next 6 months

Objective: “To assess whether Total Monte Carlo is possible for isotopic/inventory calculations, and in particular regarding the applicability of ACAB code to help address this topic”. A) System of reference: industrial-scale transmutation facility EFIT B) Calculations: Isotopic inventory at 150 GWd/tHM and 500 GWd/tHM discharge burn-up C) Procedure: Use the Total Monte Carlo method to compute uncertainties in the inventory calculations due to activation cross section uncertainties. And, further comparison with the results obtained with the unified uncertainty activation library, in order to assess performance of the correlation between different isotopes. TMC Activation libraries to be used in ACAB code:

ENDF to be processed with NJOY
PENDF to be collapsed with GROUPR/NJOY
GENDF directly used by ACAB code

ENDF activation libraries are needed to study the importance of different number energy- group structures in the propagation of cross section uncertainties to the final nuclear responses.