and Outlook Presentation to: Committee for Dulles Kelley Coyner, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Committee for Dulles Kelley Coyner, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University Sept. 22, 2016 1 Whats

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  • Sept. 22, 2016

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Kelley Coyner, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

Presentation to: Committee for Dulles

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  • What’s new?
  • Economic Trends ?
  • Regional Implications?
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5.2 % Real median household income 2.4 M More workers 1.2 % Decrease in poverty rate 3.5 M Fewer in poverty

U.S. Census Bureau Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015 Current Population Reports Issued September 2016, P60-256

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SLIDE 4

GDP Trends since 2001

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90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2001 GDP*=100 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA United States

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, *2009 Chained Dollars

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SLIDE 5

New Numbers

GDP

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Courtesy of Washington Business Journal
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Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2

% Change in GDP*

Quarters After Trough

*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2

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15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jul 2015 – Jul 2016

50 100 150 200 250

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2016

  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60

2002 2005 2008 (000s)

Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9

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4 9 21 30 86 43 68 73

  • 5
  • 7
  • 10
  • 12
  • 10
  • 8
  • 49
  • 34
  • 23
  • 24
  • 100
  • 75
  • 50
  • 25
  • Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total -181 Total 335

Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-May 2016

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  • 8000
  • 6000
  • 4000
  • 2000

2000 4000

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US

Month-Over-Year

(000s)

Jun = +2.5M

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11

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Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

2002 2005 2008 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May (000s)

Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

May-16 Total: 739.2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12

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90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year 2000=100

Index of Population and Employment Growth in the Washington Region

Population Employment

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Population and employment trends in the Washington Metro Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13

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47,989 47,150 46,096 36,871 43,070 47,495 4,495 (24,741) (27,907) (40,000) (20,000)

  • 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Natural Increase

Source: Census Bureau

Washington Metro Area Population Components of Change

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Long commutes diminish quality of life

5.6% 5.9% 7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.0% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.7% 12.7% 13.5% 14.0% 15.3% 17.3% 20.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Phoenix Minneapolis Detroit Dallas United States Miami Philadelphia Houston Seattle Los Angeles Atlanta Boston Chicago SF-Oakland Washington New York

Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

Source: US Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, Table S0802

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100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA

$399.3K Aug 2016

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (000s)

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  • Job Growth continues
  • Less federal dependency
  • Strength in small business development
  • Key opportunities
  • Sci-Tech services
  • Bio-tech & health services
  • Higher Education
  • Advocacy
  • Tourism
  • Global
  • Attractive to talent
  • New transportation investments

economic and transportation benefit

  • Vulnerable to Federal sequestration,

BRAC

  • Small firms bought by out-of-area

companies and moved

  • Diverse education requirements
  • Retaining talent challenging
  • High costs for housing, childcare
  • Opportunities elsewhere
  • Long Commutes
  • Metrorail Unreliable

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What’s Next for the Regional Economy?

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SLIDE 17

Comments?

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