among Asia and across the Pacific Ocean Keynote Address at the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Era of Linkages among Asia and across the Pacific Ocean

Keynote Address at the Conference on Asian banking and Finance

“Challenges in Global Finance: The Role of Asia”

held by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Masaaki Shirakawa

Governor of the Bank of Japan June 11, 2012

(Chart 1)

Ａ Ｓｐａｎｉｓｈ gａｌｌｅｏｎ.

Early Days of Trans-Pacific Linkages

(Chart 2)

Boeing 747 “Jumbo Jet” in 1970s

Automobile Production in Japan and U.S.

Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., FRB.

(Chart 3)

• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Japan U.S.

y/y % chg.

Great East Japan Earthquake

2011

Decline in Japan’s Exports of Automobile Parts After the Great East Japan Earthquake

(Chart 4)

iPhone Production Costs

Note: The costs and prices are for the iPhone4S (16GB) in 2011. The retail price is SIM-free and without contracts. Sources: iSuppli; Nikkei Electronics.

Japanese-firms Non-Japanese firms NAND Flash Memory Toshiba Samsung (Korea), Hynix (Korea) 19.2 DRAM Elpida Samsung (Korea) 9.1 Display Toshiba, Sharp LG (Korea), Chimei (Taiwan) 23.0 Application Processor Samsung (Korea) 15.0 Camera Module Sony 17.6 Bluetooth/WLAN and

• ther communication equipment

Murata Qualcomm (U.S.), Avago (U.S.), Broadcom (U.S.), TriQuint (U.S.) 30.0 Battery Sony, TDK Samsung (Korea), LG (Korea) 5.9 Mechanical/Electro-Mechanical Ibiden 33.0 35.1 187.9 8.0 453.1 649.0 Gross profit margin Retail price Components Major suppliers Amount of money per unit (U.S. dollars) Cost of other components Total cost of all components Manufacturing cost

(Chart 5)

The World Economic Outlook Projections

• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Asia Euro area and U.K. Latin America （y/y percent chg）

projection

1

Note1：Japan, China, India, NIEs and ASEAN5. Source: IMF

(Chart 6)

Nominal GDP Share (2011)

Source: IMF

U.S. 22% Euro Area and U.K. 22% Japan 8% China 11% India 2% NIEs・ ASEAN5 6% Latin America 7% Other 22%

(Chart 7)

Amount of Trade across Pan-Pacific

（Note）Asia includes Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. NAFTA includes United States, Canada, Mexico. MERCOSUR includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. （Source）RIET-TID 2011

(Chart 8)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Asia → NAFTA and MERCOSUR NAFTA and MERCOSUR → Asia

（Billion dollars）

Increase in the Share of Asia-Pacific Trade

Share of bilateral and regional amount of trade accounting for the total amount of trade among the six poles (%)

（Source）White Paper on International Economy and Trade (2011)

（１９９０） （２０００） （２００８）

Rank Country/Region Share Rank Country/Region Share Rank Country/Region Share

1 NAFTA-EU 29.3 1 NAFTA-EU 27.0 1 NAFTA-EU 20.7 2 NAFTA-Japan 19.6 2 NAFTA-Japan 14.0 2 NAFTA-China 13.2 3 EU-Japan 12.6 3 NAFTA-ASEAN 8.5 3 EU-China 13.2 4 Japan-ASEAN 7.9 4 NAFTA-China 8.2 4 Japan-China 7.5 5 NAFTA-ASEAN 6.5 5 EU-Japan 7.8 5 NAFTA-Japan 6.8 6 EU-ASEAN 5.8 6 Japan-ASEAN 7.3 6 China-ASEAN 5.8 7

NAFTA-MERCOSUR

3.9 7 EU-ASEAN 6.1 7 EU-ASEAN 5.7 8 EU-MERCOSUR 3.5 8 Japan-China 5.5 8 NAFTA-ASEAN 5.6 9 NAFTA-China 3.3 9 EU-China 5.5 9 Japan-ASEAN 5.5 10 EU-China 3.0 10

NAFTA-MERCOSUR

4.0 10 EU-Japan 5.1 11 Japan-China 2.5 11 EU-MERCOSUR 2.8 11

NAFTA-MERCOSUR

4.2 12 China-ASEAN 0.9 12 China-ASEAN 2.3 12 EU-MERCOSUR 3.6 13

Japan-MERCOSUR

0.8 13

Japan-MERCOSUR

0.5 13 China-MERCOSUR 2.1 14

MERCOSUR-ASEAN

0.3 14

China-MERCOSUR

0.3 14

MERCOSUR-ASEAN

0.5 15

China-MERCOSUR

0.1 15

MERCOSUR-ASEAN

0.2 15

Japan-MERCOSUR

0.5 (Chart 9)

（Source）White Paper on international Economy and Trade (2011)

Japan China ASEAN NAFTA MERCOSUR EU

(1990) (2008)

29.3 19.6 12.6

Japan China NAFTA EU ASEAN MERCOSUR

6.8 20.7 5.1

Below 5%

7.9 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 7.5 13.2 13.2

Increase in the Share of Asia-Pacific Trade

Trade among six poles

(Note) Share of bilateral and regional amount of trade accounting for the total amount of trade among the six poles

(Chart 10)

Asian Contribution to Global GDP Growth

Note1：Japan, China, India, NIEs and ASEAN5. Source: IMF

• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Other Asia World （y/y percent chg）

(Chart 11)

Loans in Asia Made by Japanese “Megabanks”

20 25 30 5 10 15

• Mar. 2010
• Sep. 2010
• Mar. 2011
• Sep. 2011
• Mar. 2012

Outstanding amount of loans in Asia (left) Proportion of loans in Asia to total overseas loans (right) （trillion yen） （％） Note: Japanese megabanks comprise the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Company, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Mizuho Bank, Mizuho Corporate Bank and Mizuho Trust and Banking Company. Source: Financial reports of Japanese megabanks

(Chart 12)

Outstanding amount of loans in Asia (left) Proportion of loans in Asia to total overseas loans (right)

Share of European and Japanese Banks in Terms of Syndicated Loan Arrangement

10 20 30 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 European Banks Japanese 3 megabanks （％）

Note 1: The share is based on the amount of arrangement in global markets. Note 2: The figure of 2012 is based on the available data figure on June 7, 2012. Source: Thomson Reuters

(Chart 13)

Japan’s External Direct Investment

2005 2010CY China 2.9 5.4 Asia (excl. China) 7.5 11.9 North America 18.3 21.4 ＥＵ 10.8 14.9 Other 6.1 14.1 Total 45.6 67.7

（tril.JPY）

5 10 15 20 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11CY （％）

China North America ＥＵ Asia(excl. China) World

（Note 1）Figures of 2011 are annualized figure of the first half of 2011 (Note 2) At the end of the year （Source）Bank of Japan

（１）Rate of Return on Direct Investment1

（２）Amount Outstanding of Japan’s

External Direct Investment2 (Chart 14)

(Chart 15)

Volume of Foreign Exchange Transactions

（１）Total （２）Currencies of Advanced Economies （３）Currencies of Emerging Economies

（Note）Aggregate Transaction Volume divided by 2 （Source） BIS “Triennial Central Bank Survey” 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2001 2004 2007 2010CY

Non-Available for CLS Available for CLS

（Bil.USD）

n.a.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2001 2004 2007 2010CY

Non-Available for CLS Available for CLS

（Bil.USD）

n.a.

(Chart 16)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2001 2004 2007 2010CY

Currencies of Emerging Economies Currencies of Advanced Economies (excl. Asian NIEs)

(Bil. USD)

Thank you for your attention