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Americas financial review Americas financial review
Darryl Button
CFO Americas
Analyst and Investor Day, New York City, December 2, 2009
Americas financial review Americas financial review Darryl Button - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Americas financial review Americas financial review Darryl Button CFO Americas Analyst and Investor Day, New York City, December 2, 2009 1 Key messages o Reporting structure aligned with management changes o Earnings impacted by financial
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Analyst and Investor Day, New York City, December 2, 2009
Local knowledge. Global power. 2
Local knowledge. Global power. 3
Operatin earning
rotect on ro ucts e nsurance Savin s and and Asset P i P d R i
Over / (under) performance
items
Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Pension and Asset Management Institutional Products Life Reinsurance
Life Institutional guaranteed products Accident and health Fixed annuities Variable annuities Retail mutual funds BOLI / COLI
Underlying earnings g s
Life and Individual Savings and Pension and Asset Institutional Life
Operating earnings
Protection g Retirement Management Products Reinsurance
Life Institutional guaranteed products Accident and health Fixed annuities Variable annuities Retail mutual funds BOLI / COLI
Local knowledge. Global power. 4
U e derlying rnings
Un nderlying ea arnings
US Work Mon AFP SVS
Canada
EU Life site Japan
LTC
TCM
DIA
Argos Mexico
ADMS
TAM
TRS
BOLI
Korea
/COLI
Mong
WFG
TRM
Clark Brazil eral
Individual Employer Life and Alternative Life Savings and Solutions and Protection Markets Reinsurance Retirement Retirement Pensions Pensions
Local knowledge. Global power. 5
Pre-crisis Current Post-crisis <2008 Q3 2009 >2010
USD 700 million Earnings impacted by
spread-based business
USD 430* million Earnings drivers
* Excluding exceptional items (USD 30 million)
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Pre-Crisis Current (<2008) Change (Q3 09)
(USD million) (USD million) (USD million)
Americas 630 (160) 470 (excluding IGP spread) IGP spread 70 (110) (40) Total Americas 700 (270) 430
Excluding IGP spread (160)
annuity, mutual fund and pension businesses
credit derivatives)
IGP spread (110)
during financial crisis
and amortizes off over next four years
Local knowledge. Global power. 7
Spread balances (USD billion)
33 24 13 8 3 2 2008 Q3 2009 2010E 2012E 2014E 2016E
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exchan e for cash
Pre-Crisis Current (<2008) Change (Q3 09) (USD million) (USD million) (USD million) IGP spread per quarter 70 (110) (40)
exchange for cash g – Transfer pricing basis – what other portfolios priced for – Actual book value of USD 11.4 billion – Unrealized loss before tax of USD (1.4) billion amortized through run-off institutional earnings:
billion of capital by the end of 2010
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. . .
7.50% 8.25% 7.50% 8.25% 6 25% 7.25% 7.25% 6.25% 6.00% 5.00% 6.25% 5.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 6.00% 9.00% 10.0 % 15 00% 15.00% 15.00% 11 00% 8.00%
Corridor cap Corridor floor
Negative DAC unlocking above cap
Corridor floor
Positive DAC unlocking below floor
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 '03 '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09
(cap)
in equity growth rate assumption
Local knowledge. Global power. 10
Category 9M 2009 9M 2008 Change
Total operating expenses 1,678 1,640 38 Less: employee pension plan costs (90) 76 (166) Less: restructuring charges (40) n/a (40) Adjusted operating expenses 1,548 1,716 (168)
Local knowledge. Global power. 11
Liabilities Assets Macro Hedge
Local knowledge. Global power.
Balances reflect ending balances as of September 30, 2009
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Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09
Gross impairments (USD million)
US housing (ABS and RMBS) Corporate Bonds US commercial mortgages (CMBS and CML)
550 516 491
Other
430 370 131 61 40 36
Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09
Recoveries (USD million) 49 5 20 18 3 4 38 3 24
Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09
Local knowledge. Global power. 13
Revaluation account (USD billion)
Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09
(5) (10) (15) (20) (20) Gross Bond Unrealized Gain (Loss) Net Revaluation Reserve
Local knowledge. Global power. 14
Local knowledge. Global power. 15
Variable annuities
14%
Life Accident and health
4% 30%
Fixed annuities Variable annuities
9%
Retail mutual funds Pensions and asset management
7%
Institutional guaranteed products
>1% 14%
BOLI / COLI
6%
Life reinsurance
16%
Local knowledge. Global power. 16
e c s
insurance
Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Employer Solutions and Pensions Alternative Markets Life Reinsurance
universal life
S th ti GIC
segregated funds
insurance products
insurance
and development
underwriting Local knowledge. Global power. 17
supplemental health
artners
ecialists
Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Employer Solutions and Pensions Alternative Markets Life Reinsurance
representatives
marketing
H i
partners
producers
representatives
representatives (business to business) Local knowledge. Global power. 18
agents
p
sp
brokers and benefit consultants
administrators
Canada WFG ADMS AFP
Mon Life LTC Work site
Sources of earnings Financial model* Risk management
400 300 200 100 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model 10% of Premium 1% of Reserves
Local knowledge. Global power.
*Model based on old reporting structure
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TRM TAM TCM
Canada
Sources of earnings
Financial model*
Variable Annuities
150 100
Fixed Annuities
100 50 50
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model
Risk management
reduced hedge costs, tiered pricing
Local knowledge. Global power.
*Model based on old reporting structure
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TRS DIA
SVS Work site Clark TIM
Sources of earnings Financial model* Risk management
fees
spread
insurance margins
60 50 40 30 20 10 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying earnings 2007 Sample Model
Local knowledge. Global power.
*Model based on old reporting structure
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Mexico Japan US
Brazil EU Korea
Sources of earnings
60 40 20
Financial model*
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 7% Premium 1% of Reserves
Risk management
* On forward looking basis for new business, insurance and fee margins expected to be 80%
Local knowledge. Global power.
*Model based on old reporting structure
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divestment
investment exposure
starting swaps
added to fixed annuity portfolio
spread lending
mitigate migration
in mortgage tranches
Local knowledge. Global power. 23
Local knowledge. Global power. 24
Local knowledge. Global power. 25
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Previous Reporting Structure New Reporting Structure
Life and Protection
AEGON Direct Marketing Services No change Life and Protection Long Term Care No change Life and Protection Monumental Life No change Life and Protection World Financial Group No change Life and Protection AEGON Financial Partners (including TIIG) No change Life and Protection Transamerica Worksite Marketing Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets
Individual Savings and Retirement
Transamerica Capital Management No change Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Asset Management Transamerica Asset Management No change No change Individual Savings and Retirement Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Retirement Management No change Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets
Pensions and Asset Management
Transamerica Investment Management Moved to Global Asset Management Diversified Investment Advisors Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Retirement Services Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets
Institutional Markets
Extraordinary Markets Moved to Alternative Markets Institutional Markets Division spread Moved to Below the line in run-off Institutional Markets Division Stable Value Solutions (synthetic GICs) Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Clark Consulting Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions
Life Reinsurance
Transamerica Reinsurance No change Life Reinsurance
Local knowledge. Global power. 27
variable life
(A&I Conference – November 2007)
Sources of Earnings: Pricing:
(Total Revenue – Total Expenses)
Total Capital*
*unlevered, after-tax
investment income (account fees for variable life)
(in USD mln) 400
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 10% of Premium 1% of Reserves
) Sample Model:
1% of reserves + 10% of premium*
*Includes Return on Surplus for insurance risks Typical spread for general account investment risks Varies by product, typically in the 5-15% range
(A&I Conference – November 2007)
(in USD mln) 150 100 50 100 75 50 25
Fixed Annuities
Sources of Earnings:
Sample Model: 1% of account balance
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model (in USD mln)
Variable Annuities
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model
Sources of Earnings:
Sample Model: 60 bps of account balance (margin expansion since 2006)
Mutual Funds: Fee based earnings (100%); break-even scale reached in 2007; higher earnings going forward Local knowledge. Global power. 29
(A&I Conference – November 2007)
60 50 40 30 20 10 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07
Underlying earnings Sample Model
Local knowledge. Global power.
Sources of Earnings:
10 bps => large case off balance sheet 401(k) service contract 100 bps => purchased annuities and general account fixed option of retirement plans
Sample earnings model: 25 bps of account balance
30
n m n
investment income and account
(A&I Conference – November 2007)
Sources of Earnings: Pricing:
to return minimum return on capital
(Total Revenue – Total Expenses)
Total Capital*
*unlevered, after-tax
investment income, and account
(i USD l )
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20 40 60 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 7% Premium 1% of Reserves
, fees Sample earnings model:
1% of reserves + 7% of premium*
Typical spread for general account investment risks Varies by product, typically in the 5-15% range *Includes Return on Surplus for insurance risks (in USD mln)
Forward-looking statements The statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The following are words that identify such forward-looking statements: aim, believe, estimate, target, intend, may, expect, anticipate, predict, project, counting on, plan, continue, want, forecast, goal, should, would, is confident, will, and similar expressions as they relate to our company. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. We undertake no obligation to publicly update
expectations at the time of writing. Actual results may differ materially from expectations conveyed in forward-looking statements due to changes caused by various risks and uncertainties. Such risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the following:
debt securities we hold;
interest rate levels and continuing low or rapidly changing interest rate levels;
Further details of potential risks and uncertainties affecting the company are described in the company’s filings with Euronext Amsterdam and the US Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 20-F. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Except as required by any applicable law or regulation, the company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the company’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
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