Americas financial review Americas financial review Darryl Button - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

americas financial review americas financial review
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Americas financial review Americas financial review Darryl Button - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Americas financial review Americas financial review Darryl Button CFO Americas Analyst and Investor Day, New York City, December 2, 2009 1 Key messages o Reporting structure aligned with management changes o Earnings impacted by financial


slide-1
SLIDE 1

1

Americas financial review Americas financial review

Darryl Button

CFO Americas

Analyst and Investor Day, New York City, December 2, 2009

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • Adjusted operating expenses down 10%

Key messages

  • Reporting structure aligned with management changes
  • Earnings impacted by financial crisis – franchises intact and producing

strong underlying earnings growth going forward

  • Institutional spread lending in run off – reduced exposure to credit risk over

time

  • Adjusted operating expenses down 10%
  • US impairment trend improving
  • Significant improvement in unrealized bond losses
  • Additional capital markets de-risking resulting in higher quality, consistent

earnings going forward

Local knowledge. Global power. 2

slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • Financial review

Agenda

  • Business review

Local knowledge. Global power. 3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Operatin earning

rotect on ro ucts e nsurance Savin s and and Asset P i P d R i

Reporting structure - today

Over / (under) performance

  • f fair value

items

Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Pension and Asset Management Institutional Products Life Reinsurance

Life Institutional guaranteed products Accident and health Fixed annuities Variable annuities Retail mutual funds BOLI / COLI

Underlying earnings g s

Life and Individual Savings and Pension and Asset Institutional Life

Operating earnings

Protection g Retirement Management Products Reinsurance

Life Institutional guaranteed products Accident and health Fixed annuities Variable annuities Retail mutual funds BOLI / COLI

  • Gains / losses
  • Impairment charges
  • Other income
  • Income tax
  • Americas net income

Local knowledge. Global power. 4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

U e derlying rnings

Reporting structure – aligned with management changes

Un nderlying ea arnings

US Work Mon AFP SVS

Canada

EU Life site Japan

LTC

TCM

DIA

Argos Mexico

ADMS

TAM

TRS

BOLI

Korea

/COLI

Mong

WFG

TRM

Clark Brazil eral

Individual Employer Life and Alternative Life Savings and Solutions and Protection Markets Reinsurance Retirement Retirement Pensions Pensions

  • Over / (under) performance of fair value items
  • Run-off business
  • Gains / losses
  • Impairment charges
  • Other income
  • Income tax
  • Americas net income

Local knowledge. Global power. 5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Development of underlying earnings before tax per quarter

Pre-crisis Current Post-crisis <2008 Q3 2009 >2010

USD 700 million Earnings impacted by

  • Run-off institutional

spread-based business

  • Equity markets
  • De-risking

USD 430* million Earnings drivers

  • Growth of business
  • Cost savings
  • Redeployment of cash
  • Financial markets

* Excluding exceptional items (USD 30 million)

Local knowledge. Global power. 6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Quarterly run-rate underlying earnings before tax

Pre-Crisis Current (<2008) Change (Q3 09)

(USD million) (USD million) (USD million)

Americas 630 (160) 470 (excluding IGP spread) IGP spread 70 (110) (40) Total Americas 700 (270) 430

Excluding IGP spread (160)

  • (70) lower equity based fees and higher DPAC amortization on variable

annuity, mutual fund and pension businesses

  • (50) investment de-risking (reduced hedge funds, high yield, BBB and

credit derivatives)

  • (40) employee pension plan expenses

IGP spread (110)

  • Spread compression driven by shortening of institutional liabilities

during financial crisis

  • IGP run-off loss follows maturity pattern of internally transferred assets

and amortizes off over next four years

Local knowledge. Global power. 7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Impact of run-off institutional spread-based business

Spread balances (USD billion)

33 24 13 8 3 2 2008 Q3 2009 2010E 2012E 2014E 2016E

  • Institutional cash shortfall due to shortening of liabilities

– 12 month notice putable funding agreements (USD 6 billion) – Municipal GICs (USD 5 billion) – Extendable MTNs (USD 1 billion)

  • Remainder of US businesses cash flow positive through the crisis

Local knowledge. Global power. 8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

exchan e for cash

Impact of run-off institutional spread-based business

Pre-Crisis Current (<2008) Change (Q3 09) (USD million) (USD million) (USD million) IGP spread per quarter 70 (110) (40)

  • USD 10 billion internal asset transfer from institutional to other US portfolios in

exchange for cash g – Transfer pricing basis – what other portfolios priced for – Actual book value of USD 11.4 billion – Unrealized loss before tax of USD (1.4) billion amortized through run-off institutional earnings:

  • 2009 (0.3) billion
  • 2012 (0.2) billion
  • 2010 (0.3) billion
  • 2013 (0.2) billion
  • 2011 (0.3) billion
  • 2014 (0.1) billion
  • Run-off will reduce sensitivity to credit markets going forward and free up USD 0.8

billion of capital by the end of 2010

Local knowledge. Global power. 9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

. . .

Mean reversion – equity return assumptions

7.50% 8.25% 7.50% 8.25% 6 25% 7.25% 7.25% 6.25% 6.00% 5.00% 6.25% 5.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 6.00% 9.00% 10.0 % 15 00% 15.00% 15.00% 11 00% 8.00%

Corridor cap Corridor floor

Negative DAC unlocking above cap

Corridor floor

Positive DAC unlocking below floor

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 '03 '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09

  • Equity return assumptions adjusted quarterly within the corridor
  • Corridor based on current information and management best estimate
  • Over last six years, corridor breached once in Q207 (floor) and then in Q308-Q109

(cap)

  • Underlying earnings impact is approximately USD 60 million per point change

in equity growth rate assumption

Local knowledge. Global power. 10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Proven ability to execute on cost reduction initiatives

Adjusted operating expenses down 10% year to date

Category 9M 2009 9M 2008 Change

Total operating expenses 1,678 1,640 38 Less: employee pension plan costs (90) 76 (166) Less: restructuring charges (40) n/a (40) Adjusted operating expenses 1,548 1,716 (168)

  • Restructuring the organization resulted in charges during 2009; however,

the efficiencies gained will result in reduced costs going forward

  • We are not done – we will continue to aggressively pursue expense savings

initiatives throughout the organization

Local knowledge. Global power. 11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Fair value items

Liabilities Assets Macro Hedge

Local knowledge. Global power.

  • GMWB (USD 14 billion) - delta / rho hedged
  • Segregated funds (USD 3.4 billion) – 92% delta hedged
  • Total return annuities (USD 1.4 billion) – closed blocks
  • Hedge funds (USD 0.7 billion) – reduced by 1.7 billion

reduced by 1.7 billion

  • Hedge funds (USD 0.7 billion)
  • Private equity (USD 0.7 billion) and REAP (USD 0.7 billion)
  • Credit derivatives – super senior program unwound
  • Capital protection – 50% of unhedged retail VA
  • Total return swap (USD 1.3 billion)
  • Put options (USD 0.8 billion)

Balances reflect ending balances as of September 30, 2009

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

Improved US impairment losses

Gross impairments (USD million)

US housing (ABS and RMBS) Corporate Bonds US commercial mortgages (CMBS and CML)

550 516 491

Other

430 370 131 61 40 36

Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

Recoveries (USD million) 49 5 20 18 3 4 38 3 24

Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

Local knowledge. Global power. 13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Reduced unrealized bond losses

Revaluation account (USD billion)

Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

(5) (10) (15) (20) (20) Gross Bond Unrealized Gain (Loss) Net Revaluation Reserve

  • Significant improvement in recent quarters
  • Not a proxy for actual impairments

Local knowledge. Global power. 14

slide-15
SLIDE 15
  • Business review

Agenda

  • Financial review

Local knowledge. Global power. 15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Variable annuities

Diversified mix of business

Americas embedded value (full year 2008)

14%

Life Accident and health

4% 30%

Fixed annuities Variable annuities

9%

Retail mutual funds Pensions and asset management

7%

Institutional guaranteed products

>1% 14%

BOLI / COLI

6%

Life reinsurance

16%

Local knowledge. Global power. 16

slide-17
SLIDE 17
  • yn

e c s

  • Variable life

insurance

Diversified product offering

Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Employer Solutions and Pensions Alternative Markets Life Reinsurance

  • Traditional life
  • Term life
  • Universal life
  • Equity indexed

universal life

  • Variable life
  • Fixed annuities
  • Variable annuities
  • Mutual funds
  • 401(k) plans
  • 403(b) plans
  • Defined benefit
  • Variable annuities
  • Mutual funds

S th ti GIC

  • Canadian life and

segregated funds

  • Latin America life

insurance products

  • Bank and corporate
  • wned life

insurance

  • Term coinsurance
  • Annuities
  • Product consulting

and development

  • Automated

underwriting Local knowledge. Global power. 17

  • Health and

supplemental health

  • Long term care
  • Synthetic GICs
slide-18
SLIDE 18
  • me serv ce

artners

  • Worksite

ecialists

Diversified distribution

Life and Protection Individual Savings and Retirement Employer Solutions and Pensions Alternative Markets Life Reinsurance

  • General agents
  • Registered

representatives

  • Independent

marketing

  • rganizations

H i

  • Banks
  • Wirehouses
  • Broker/dealers
  • Financial planners
  • Institutional

partners

  • Consulting firms
  • Broker/dealers
  • Banks
  • Independent

producers

  • Worksite specialists
  • General agents
  • Company

representatives

  • Consultants
  • Company

representatives (business to business) Local knowledge. Global power. 18

  • Home service

agents

  • Direct marketing

p

  • Agents

sp

  • Employee benefit

brokers and benefit consultants

  • Third-party

administrators

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Life and Protection

Canada WFG ADMS AFP

Mon Life LTC Work site

Sources of earnings Financial model* Risk management

  • Investment spreads (30%)
  • Insurance fee margins (70%)

400 300 200 100 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model 10% of Premium 1% of Reserves

  • Actuarial experience studies
  • External reinsurance
  • Effective ALM strategies
  • Extensive operational controls and processes

Local knowledge. Global power.

*Model based on old reporting structure

19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Individual Savings and Retirement

TRM TAM TCM

Canada

Sources of earnings

  • Fixed annuities - investment spreads (100%)
  • Variable annuities
  • fees net of hedging (70%)
  • investment spreads (30%)
  • Mutual funds - fees (100%)

Financial model*

Variable Annuities

150 100

Fixed Annuities

100 50 50

  • 50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model Underlying Earnings 2007 Sample Model

Risk management

  • ALM matching for fixed annuities
  • Delta / rho hedging on GMWB
  • Macro hedge for 50% of previously unhedged business
  • New product launched Q3 ‘09

reduced hedge costs, tiered pricing

Local knowledge. Global power.

*Model based on old reporting structure

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

TRS DIA

Employer Solutions and Pensions

SVS Work site Clark TIM

Sources of earnings Financial model* Risk management

  • Separate account and off balance sheet

fees

  • Purchased annuities and general account

spread

  • Worksite voluntary

insurance margins

60 50 40 30 20 10 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying earnings 2007 Sample Model

  • ALM matching for general account
  • Extensive operational controls and processes
  • Actuarial experience studies for voluntary benefits
  • Strict investment mandates for synthetic GICs

Local knowledge. Global power.

*Model based on old reporting structure

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Life Reinsurance

Mexico Japan US

Brazil EU Korea

Sources of earnings

  • Insurance fee margins (55%)*
  • Investment spreads (45%)

60 40 20

Financial model*

  • 20
  • 40

Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 7% Premium 1% of Reserves

Risk management

  • Actuarial experience studies
  • External retrocesssion
  • Delta/rho hedging on variable annuity exposure

* On forward looking basis for new business, insurance and fee margins expected to be 80%

Local knowledge. Global power.

*Model based on old reporting structure

22

slide-23
SLIDE 23
  • Reduced hedge fund
  • Floating rate assets

Reduced capital markets risk Equity Risk

  • VA hedging
  • Common equity

divestment

  • Reduced hedge fund

investment exposure

Interest Rate Risk

  • Effective ALM
  • Cash and forward

starting swaps

  • Floating rate assets

added to fixed annuity portfolio

Improved risk / return profile

Credit Risk

  • Run-off institutional

spread lending

  • Asset de-risking to

mitigate migration

  • Upgraded credit quality

in mortgage tranches

  • ver last 5 years

Local knowledge. Global power. 23

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Conclusion

  • Organizational changes to simplify the business and extract synergies
  • Strong franchises positioned to win
  • Focused on costs to drive competitive advantage
  • Reduced exposure to capital markets risk will result in higher quality,

consistent earnings going forward

Local knowledge. Global power. 24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Q&A

Local knowledge. Global power. 25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Appendix

Local knowledge. Global power. 26

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Divisional restructuring

Previous Reporting Structure New Reporting Structure

Life and Protection

AEGON Direct Marketing Services No change Life and Protection Long Term Care No change Life and Protection Monumental Life No change Life and Protection World Financial Group No change Life and Protection AEGON Financial Partners (including TIIG) No change Life and Protection Transamerica Worksite Marketing Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets

Individual Savings and Retirement

Transamerica Capital Management No change Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Asset Management Transamerica Asset Management No change No change Individual Savings and Retirement Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Retirement Management No change Individual Savings and Retirement Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets

Pensions and Asset Management

Transamerica Investment Management Moved to Global Asset Management Diversified Investment Advisors Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Retirement Services Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Transamerica Canada Moved to Alternative Markets

Institutional Markets

Extraordinary Markets Moved to Alternative Markets Institutional Markets Division spread Moved to Below the line in run-off Institutional Markets Division Stable Value Solutions (synthetic GICs) Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions Clark Consulting Moved to Employer Solutions and Pensions

Life Reinsurance

Transamerica Reinsurance No change Life Reinsurance

Local knowledge. Global power. 27

slide-28
SLIDE 28

variable life

Life & Protection – Earnings Drivers

(A&I Conference – November 2007)

Sources of Earnings: Pricing:

  • Products priced on a holistic basis
  • Technical margins (70%)
  • Investment spreads (30%)

(Total Revenue – Total Expenses)

  • 11%*

Total Capital*

*unlevered, after-tax

  • Spread on reserves
  • Return on surplus
  • Revenue sources are premiums and

investment income (account fees for variable life)

(in USD mln) 400

Local knowledge. Global power. 28

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 10% of Premium 1% of Reserves

) Sample Model:

1% of reserves + 10% of premium*

*Includes Return on Surplus for insurance risks Typical spread for general account investment risks Varies by product, typically in the 5-15% range

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Individual Savings & Retirement – Earnings Drivers

(A&I Conference – November 2007)

(in USD mln) 150 100 50 100 75 50 25

Fixed Annuities

Sources of Earnings:

  • Investment spread (100%)
  • Spread on account balance
  • Return on surplus

Sample Model: 1% of account balance

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model (in USD mln)

Variable Annuities

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model

Sources of Earnings:

  • Fees (70%)
  • Investment spread (30%)
  • Spread on fixed investment option
  • Return on surplus

Sample Model: 60 bps of account balance (margin expansion since 2006)

Mutual Funds: Fee based earnings (100%); break-even scale reached in 2007; higher earnings going forward Local knowledge. Global power. 29

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Pension & Asset Management – Earnings Drivers

(A&I Conference – November 2007)

60 50 40 30 20 10 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07

Underlying earnings Sample Model

Local knowledge. Global power.

Sources of Earnings:

  • Fees (40%)
  • Investment spread (60%)
  • Spread on account balance
  • Return on surplus

Margins vary significantly by product based on capital allocation – range from 10 to 100 bps

10 bps => large case off balance sheet 401(k) service contract 100 bps => purchased annuities and general account fixed option of retirement plans

Sample earnings model: 25 bps of account balance

30

slide-31
SLIDE 31

n m n

investment income and account

Life Reinsurance – Earnings Drivers

(A&I Conference – November 2007)

  • Products priced on a holistic basis

Sources of Earnings: Pricing:

  • Technical Margins (45%)

to return minimum return on capital

  • Investment Spreads (45%)

(Total Revenue – Total Expenses)

  • Spread on reserves
  • 11%*

Total Capital*

*unlevered, after-tax

  • Return on surplus
  • Fees (10%)
  • Revenue sources are premiums,

investment income, and account

(i USD l )

Local knowledge. Global power. 31

20 40 60 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Underlying Earnings Sample Model 7% Premium 1% of Reserves

, fees Sample earnings model:

1% of reserves + 7% of premium*

Typical spread for general account investment risks Varies by product, typically in the 5-15% range *Includes Return on Surplus for insurance risks (in USD mln)

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Disclaimer

Forward-looking statements The statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The following are words that identify such forward-looking statements: aim, believe, estimate, target, intend, may, expect, anticipate, predict, project, counting on, plan, continue, want, forecast, goal, should, would, is confident, will, and similar expressions as they relate to our company. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. We undertake no obligation to publicly update

  • r revise any forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which merely reflect company

expectations at the time of writing. Actual results may differ materially from expectations conveyed in forward-looking statements due to changes caused by various risks and uncertainties. Such risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the following:

  • Changes in general economic conditions, particularly in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom;
  • Changes in the performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, such as with regard to:
  • The frequency and severity of defaults by issuers in our fixed income investment portfolios; and
  • The effects of corporate bankruptcies and/or accounting restatements on the financial markets and the resulting decline in the value of equity and

debt securities we hold;

  • The frequency and severity of insured loss events;
  • Changes affecting mortality, morbidity and other factors that may impact the profitability of our insurance products;
  • Changes affecting interest rate levels and continuing low or rapidly changing interest rate levels;

interest rate levels and continuing low or rapidly changing interest rate levels;

  • Changes affecting
  • Changes affecting currency exchange rates, in particular the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP exchange rates;
  • Increasing levels of competition in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and emerging markets;
  • Changes in laws and regulations, particularly those affecting our operations, the products we sell, and the attractiveness of certain products to our consumers;
  • Regulatory changes relating to the insurance industry in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
  • Acts of God, acts of terrorism, acts of war and pandemics;
  • Effects of deliberations of the European Commission regarding the aid we received from the Dutch State in December 2008;
  • Changes in the policies of central banks and/or governments;
  • Litigation or regulatory action that could require us to pay significant damages or change the way we do business;
  • Customer responsiveness to both new products and distribution channels;
  • Competitive, legal, regulatory, or tax changes that affect the distribution cost of or demand for our products;
  • Our failure to achieve anticipated levels of earnings or operational efficiencies as well as other cost saving initiatives; and
  • The impact our adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards may have on our reported financial results and financial condition.

Further details of potential risks and uncertainties affecting the company are described in the company’s filings with Euronext Amsterdam and the US Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 20-F. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Except as required by any applicable law or regulation, the company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the company’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Local knowledge. Global power. 32