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All numbers and 0 charts contain dummy numbers 0 . Forward Looking Statements 1 A number of statements we make in our presentation, and in the accompanying slides, will not be based on historical fact but will be forward looking
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A number of statements we make in our presentation, and in the accompanying slides, will not be based on historical fact but will be “forward‐ looking” statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and technology change. permanent tsb Group Holdings plc undertakes no obligation to update the forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation. Forward‐looking statements made in this presentation relate only to events as at the date on which they are made.
Forward Looking Statements
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Agenda
Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – H1 2014 Highlights Glen Lucken, Group CFO – Financial Performance Shane O’Sullivan, Managing Director of AMU Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – Recap and Priorities Questions & Answers
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permanent tsb in H1 2014
IMPROVED PERFORMANCE MARKET RELEVANCE INDEPENDENCE
BETTER Bottom Line BETTER Arrears Management ACHIEVING Funding Stability GROWING Market Share
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333 437 430 149 1,107 454 500
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014
Impairment Charge (€m)
H2 H1
Sharply Improving Performance (1)
Sharply Improving Bottom Line
- Underlying performance improved €278m
- n H1 13
Sharply Improving Impairment Profile
- Impairments fell by €281m
Sharply Improving Arrears Profile
- Early and late arrears in ROI mortgages
decreasing
- Total number of cases in arrears down 14%
in H1 14
359 457 449 171 1,109 523 528
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014
Losses (€m)
H2 H1
977 980 930 891 1,468 1,440
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- Re-establishing market position; a competitive third retail
banking force
- Well positioned as economic outlook continues to improve
and foreign owned banks retrench
- Growing customer base driven by expanding customer
proposition
- Focused OME launch planned for H2
Sharply Improving Performance (2)
Improved Performance … Meaning
- n-plan to
deliver sustainable profitability
- Economic environment continues to support business
- Arrears have peaked in 2013 and are falling
- Impairments are reducing significantly
- Non-Core deleveraging planned in H2
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…Building a Best in Class Retail Bank in Ireland
Attracting New Customers and Deposits
- Deposit balances have increased to €14.5bn
(incl. Current Accounts)
- Market share of 13%
- Current Account balances have increased by
c.€250m
- 15,524 new payroll accounts in H1
Increasing New Lending
- Mortgage drawdowns have increased to
€180m, an increase of 362% from H1 2013
- Market share of approvals of 13% from a
low of 3% in Q4 2012
- Term Lending payouts up 14% yoy to €21m
Broadening Customer Proposition
- Insurance Sales up 70% yoy in H1
- OME launch in H2
13.5 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.5
12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.7% 13.0%
11.8% 12.0% 12.2% 12.4% 12.6% 12.8% 13.0% 13.2% 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Deposit Volumes (€bn) and Market Share (%)
Deposit Volumes Market Share
39 42 39 170 180
38 29 69 221 264
3% 4% 5% 9% 13%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 50 100 150 200 250 300 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Mortgages Approvals/Drawdowns (€m) and Market Share (%)
PTSB Drawdowns (€m) PTSB Approvals (€m) Share of Market Approvals (%)
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Group: Key Financial Highlights
Improving Operating Performance
- Operating Loss reduced by 61.9%
- NIM improved by 6bps; ptsb SBU NIM at
140bps
- Impairment Charges reduced by 65.3%
- ptsb SBU records Operating Profit of €3m
Strengthening the Balance Sheet
- Arrears over 90 days fallen by 14% since
Dec 13
- Customer Deposits increased to 60% of
mix
- ECB Funding reduced further by 15.9%;
halved from peak levels in 2011
- Loans to Deposit ratio down 10ppts to
141%
- Capital position remains strong at 12.7%
Key Metrics Income Statement H1 ‘14 H1 ‘13 Change Operating Loss Before Exceptional Items (171) (449) 61.9% NIM (Before ELG Fees) 88bps 82bps 6bps Impairment Charges (149) (430) 65.3% Balance Sheet Jun ’14 Dec ’13 Change System Funding €5.8bn €6.9bn 15.9% Loans to Deposit Ratio 141% 151% 10ppts CET 1 Ratio 12.7% 13.4% 0.7ppts Customer Accounts 20,545 19,511 5.3% ROI Arrears > 90 Days (#) 22,559 26,357 14.4%
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Agenda
Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – H1 2014 Highlights Glen Lucken, Group CFO – Financial Performance Shane O’Sullivan, Managing Director of AMU Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – Recap and Priorities Questions & Answers
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H1 2014 €m H1 2013 €m Change €m Change % Net Interest Income 158 156 2 1.3% Other Income 33 26 7 26.9% ELG Fees (32) (63) 31 49.2% Total Operating Income 159 119 40 33.6% Operating Expenses (181) (138) (43) (31.2%) Operating Loss Pre‐Impairment (22) (19) (3) (15.7%) Impairment Charges (149) (430) 281 65.3% Loss Before Exceptional Items (171) (449) 278 61.9% Exceptional Items (Net) ‐ 318 (318) (100.0%) Loss Before Tax (171) (131) (40) (30.5%)
- Avg. Int. Earning Assets
36,079 38,049 (1,970) (5.2%) Net Interest Margin 88bps 82bps 6bps 7.3%
Group Income Statement
- Net Interest Income increased marginally by
1.3%, despite a 5.2% reduction in Interest Earning Assets
- Steady NIM improvement of 6bps in falling
rate environment driven by lower cost of funds
- Other Income increase of 26.9% mainly
driven by one‐off gains
- ELG Fees reduced by 49.2% as result of
reduction in covered liabilities
- Operating Expenses increased by 31.2% as
a result of increased regulatory costs and
- ne‐off legacy legal and compliance costs
- Impairment Charges reduced by 65.3%
mainly driven by reduced new default flow and provision releases as restructured loans are labelled as ‘cured’
- Underlying Loss improvement of 61.9%
- Excluding one‐off items in Income and
Expenses, the Group recorded a Pre‐ Provision Profit
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Income Statement (€m) Core Bank Non‐Core Group* PTSB AMU H1 2014 H1 2013 H1 2014 H1 2013 H1 2014 H1 2013 H1 2014 H1 2013 Underlying Operating Profit/(Loss) Before Impairments and Non‐Recurring Items 62 (26) (49) (22) (18) 6 4 (33) Non‐Recurring Items ‐ 14 (25) ‐ (1) ‐ (26) 14 Impairment Charges (59) (27) (42) (307) (48) (96) (149) (430) Profit/(Loss) 3 (39) (116) (329) (67) (90) (171) (449) Balance Sheet (€bn) Jun 14 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 13 Total Assets 20.8 21.8 6.5 6.4 9.2 9.3 36.9 37.6 Gross Loans 14.1 14.6 8.8 8.7 10.2 10.1 33.1 33.5
*Group includes unallocated adjustments which have not been attributed to the segments
Group: Segmental Performance
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Group: Net Interest Income and NIM
0.88% 0.82% 0.19% 0.20% 0.12% 0.07%
0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20%
NIM June 2013 Asset Pricing Deposit Funding Costs ECB Funding Costs Wholesale Funding NIM June 2014
Components of NIM
Cost of Funds decreasing at a faster rate than Asset Yields
NII and NIM
- Group NIM shows a steady
improvement of 6bps
- ptsb SBU NIM is at 140bps
- Driven mainly by reduction in overall
cost of funds
- Continuous ECB rate cuts over the last
few years driving lower asset yields Future NIM expansion will primarily reflect:
- Decreasing Cost of Funds
- Increasing new lending with higher
margins
- Refinancing the back book in
improving economic environment
- Maturity of CoCo (in June 2016)
76bp 88bp 72bp 82bp 82bp
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Cost of Funds Asset Yields
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Staff Costs
- Staff Costs reduced by €3m or 4%
compared to June 2013 due to changes in pension entitlements and
- ther staff benefits, and savings
achieved from VSS Other Costs
- Other Costs increased due higher cost
- f regulation and one‐off provisions
relating to legacy legal and compliance liabilities Bank Levy
- c€30m due for recognition and
payment in H2 2014
Group: Operating Expenses
€69m €66m €69m €115m
€0m €40m €80m €120m €160m €200m
H1 2013 H1 2014
Group Operating Expenses
Staff Costs Other Costs
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Impairment Charges
434 449 429 498 148
100 200 300 400 500 600
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Impairment Charges (€m)
Group Impairments
- Impairment Charges decreased by
€281m (65.3%) since H1 2013, driven by the fall in both early and late arrears across all portfolios
- ROI HL charge reduced by 45.8% from
H1 2013, mainly due to low levels of new defaults
- ROI BTL recorded a write‐back of
provisions of €14m as restructured loans are cured
- Consumer Finance book recorded a
write‐back of provisions of €3m due to enhanced collections performance
65%
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Deleveraging
36,402 35,042 33,995 33,769 33,089 680
30,000 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 35,000 36,000 37,000
H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H1 2014 Post HFS Sale
Deleveraging* (€m)
Assets reduced by €2.6bn since 2011
Deleveraging
- Continued natural net reduction of loan
assets
- Gross Loans have reduced by over
€2.6bn since 2011
- Small tranche of CRE sold in H1
- €680m of loans are formally ‘Held for
Sale’ (Springboard and a small tranche
- f CHL loans), with further asset sales
planned over time (CRE)
Held for Sale
Note: * Gross Loans at constant exchange rate
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Funding
227% 157% 151% 141% LDR%
- Continuing focus on optimising the funding
mix:
- System Funding reduced by €1.1bn or
16%; reduced to 17% of mix and more than two thirds down from peak
- €1bn growth in deposits across Retail and
Corporate channels at an improved rate (60% of mix)
- Reliance on Short‐Term Debt remains
static at 6%
- Fastnet 9 launched in December 2013 with a
yield of Euribor + 165bps%, which has since fallen to Euribor + 110bps%
- €0.8bn repaid under the LTRO programme in
2014
- LDR improved due to a combination of
deposit growth and loan book run‐down
- Continuing reduction in Cost of Funds into
2014
14.4 19.2 19.5 20.5
14.0 7.8 6.9 5.8 8.7 7.8 7.9 7.5 1.89% 1.76% 1.65%
0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 H2 2011 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Group Funding Mix
Customer Deposits System Funding Wholesale Funding Cost of Funds €bn
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13.4% 12.7% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0% Dec‐13 Jun‐14
CET1 Ratio %
- Common Equity Tier 1
ratio under Basel III transitional basis is 12.7%; well above the regulatory minimum of 8%
- RWA – down €0.9bn
due both to reduction in loans and advances, and improvement in default probabilities as the economy recovers
Capital
16,953 16,070 15,600 16,000 16,400 16,800 17,200 Dec‐13 Jun‐14
RWA Level
€m
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€3.9bn €17.7bn 53% 19% 6% 21% 1%
Gross Loans
ROI HL ROI BTL CRE CHL Consumer
55% 25% 16% 3% 1%
NPLs
ROI HL ROI BTL CRE CHL Consumer
Group: Asset Quality
ROI HL ROI BTL CRE CHL Consumer Total Gross Loans €bn 17.1 6.4 2.1 7.0 0.3 32.9 Performing % 69% 65% 29% 95% 67% 71% NPLs* % 27% 33% 69% 3% 24% 26% Provisions €bn 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 4.1 PCR % 38% 60% 65% 36% 97% 48%
*Non‐Performing Loans are defined as loans which are greater than 90 days in arrears or impaired
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Group: Asset Quality ‐ ROI Home Loans
ROI HL: €17.1bn* H1 2014 H2 2013 Change Early Arrears (<90 days) 6,041 7,063 14.4% Late Arrears (90+ days) 19,009 22,452 15.3% Late Arrears % of Total Cases 13.7% 15.8% 2.1 ppts NPLs (€m) 4,681 4,526 3.4% Provision Stock (€m) 1,758 1,661 5.8% Coverage Ratio 38% 37% 1 ppt
130 154 236 201 128 50 100 150 200 250 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 Impairment Charges (€m) ROI HL
Portfolio
- 73% of ROI residential mortgages are HLs
- 57% are Trackers
Economic Environment
- CSO property price index shows a nationwide increase
in residential property prices of 12.5% in the year to 30 June 2014. Overall the national index is 43% lower than the peak in 2007. Provisioning assumptions continue to be conservative at 55% PTT
- Unemployment levels continue to decline
Performance
- Early and Late arrears continue to reduce significantly
- PCR has increased to 37.6% and remains robust
- NPLs increased due to treatments trial periods; if
assume all trials convert, NPLs/>90 Days Cases reduced by 15.3%
- Impairment Charges reduced by 36.3% since H2 2013
*Gross Loans before Impairments
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Group: Asset Quality ‐ ROI Buy‐To‐Lets
ROI BTL: €6.4bn* H1 2014 H2 2013 Change Early Arrears (<90 days) 981 1,013 3.2% Late Arrears (90+ days) 3,550 3,905 9.1% Late Arrears % of Total Cases 15.5% 16.9% 1.4ppts NPLs (€m) 2,094 2,229 6.1% Provision Stock (€m) 1,255 1,289 2.6% Coverage Ratio 60% 58% 2 ppts
124 100 102 188 ‐14 ‐50 50 100 150 200 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 Impairment Charges (€m) ROI BTL
Portfolio
- 27% of ROI residential mortgages are BTLs
- 85% are Trackers
Economic Environment
- CSO property price index shows a nationwide increase
in residential property prices of 12.5% in the year to 30 June 2014. Overall the national index is 43% lower than the peak in 2007. Provisioning assumptions continue to be conservative at 55% PTT
- Unemployment levels continue to decline
- Private rental market continued to grow in 2014
Performance
- Early and Late arrears continue to reduce significantly
- PCR has increased to 59.9% and remains robust
- Post‐Trials NPLs/>90 Days Cases reduced by 9.1%
- Write Back of €14m in H1 2014
*Gross Loans before Impairments
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Agenda
Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – H1 2014 Highlights Glen Lucken, Group CFO – Financial Performance Shane O’Sullivan, Managing Director of AMU Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – Recap and Priorities Questions & Answers
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The Asset Management Unit
- Reduce the flow of new arrears cases
- focus on early engagement and cash collection
- Engage with customers in late arrears
- agree a treatment (repayment plan) that is sustainable and affordable
- Manage the legal, property management and recoveries process
- use if no affordable and sustainable solution can be found
AMU Role
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The Asset Management Unit
Key Achievements 1. Engagement delivering real benefits
- > 80% of customers engaging
- 88% of Home Loan customers who engage are offered sustainable and affordable
treatments to retain ownership 2. Dramatic increase in restructuring deals offered
- 24,000 restructure offers made by the end of June (cumulative across HL and BTL)
3. Exceeded all Central Bank MART targets
- Offering sustainable solutions to customers in late arrears
4. Significant progress in reducing arrears levels
- Number of arrears cases down 14% during H1 2014; 17% down from the peak
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Engagement Delivers Real Benefits
Stage 1 Engagement Through SFS Stage 2 Objective SFS Assessment Stage 3 Realistic Mortgage Restructure Options Stage 4 Post-Restructure Payment
- 26,000 SFSs
completed
- On average we agree
a sustainable solution with customers within 10 working days
- For 88% of Home
Loan accounts the Bank identifies a payment arrangement that can see the customer retaining ownership
- The equivalent
figure for BTL accounts is 79%
- Where customers
work with the Bank, the vast majority receive affordable and sustainable solutions; 80% of customers accept their restructure
- ffer
- 92% of stage 3
customers successfully meeting their new mortgage payment
The Group’s focus on sustainable and affordable treatments has resulted in industry leading Arrears Management Metrics
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Sustainable Solutions
Short Term Treatments Other Options
- Term Extension
- Arrears Repayment Plan
- Part Capital and Interest with Bullet
- Split Mortgage with Bullet
- Voluntary Sale (with upfront agreement on shortfall)
- Voluntary Surrender
- Mortgage To Rent
- Insolvency
- Interest Only
- > Interest Only
Long Term Treatments
Repossessions are considered only after alternative treatments have been considered/offered or where the Borrower refuses to engage with the Bank. The Bank will continue to explore treatments that may result in a customer being removed from the Legal process.
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Source: PTSB Internal Data, CBI Data Note: *rounded to the nearest hundred
Delivering Arrears Management Performance (1)
PTSB Buy To Let: Trend significantly outperforming industry Early Arrears down to 4.2% from 6.4% in June 2012, Late Arrears down to 15.1% from 21% at peak
Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Industry 6.6% 6.5% 6.8% 6.2% PTSB 6.4% 5.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% % of Accounts in 1‐90 Days in Arrears
Early Arrears – BTL
Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Industry 16.1% 18.5% 20.7% 22.0% PTSB 19.3% 21.0% 18.8% 16.5% 15.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% % of Accounts in >90 days in Arrears
Late Arrears – BTL
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PTSB Home Loan: Trend outperforming industry Early Arrears down to 4.1% from 6.2% in June 2012, Late Arrears down to 12.5% from 15.1% at peak
Delivering Arrears Management Performance (2)
Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Industry 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.3% PTSB 6.2% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% % of Accounts in 1‐90 Days in Arrears
Early Arrears – Home Loan
Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Industry 10.1% 11.5% 11.1% 11.0% PTSB 12.4% 13.7% 15.1% 14.9% 12.5% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% % of Accounts in >90 days in Arrears
Late Arrears – Home Loan
Source: PTSB Internal Data, CBI Data Note: *rounded to the nearest hundred
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- More than 60% of “Non-
Performing” HL customers pay more than 50% of their mortgage each month
- More than 50% of “Non-
Performing” BTL customers pay more than 50% of their mortgage each month
Customers are continuing to pay what they can … … and balances in negative equity have fallen by 8% since December 2013
Improving Economics
2.5 2.3 1.5 1.4
‐ 1 2 3 4 5
Dec 13 Jun 14
Balances in Negative Equity
BTL HL
€4.0bn €3.7bn
€bn
8%
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Agenda
Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – H1 2014 Highlights Glen Lucken, Group CFO – Financial Performance Shane O’Sullivan, Managing Director of AMU Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – Recap and Priorities Questions & Answers
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On the Road to Profitability…
437 454 430 499 149 100 200 300 400 500 600 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Impairment Charges (€m)
6.5 7.0 7.5 8.6 8.5 14.1% 15.6% 16.1% 15.9% 13.9% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% ‐ 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
Total NPLs (€bn) and ROI Residential Mortgages in Arrears > 90 days (% of total cases)
Total NPLs ROI residential mortgages in arrears > 90days ‐457 ‐520 ‐449 ‐528 ‐171 ‐600 ‐500 ‐400 ‐300 ‐200 ‐100
Underlying losses before exceptional items (€m)
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 0.76% 0.72% 0.82% 0.82% 0.88% 0.50% 0.55% 0.60% 0.65% 0.70% 0.75% 0.80% 0.85% 0.90% H1 12 H2 12 H1 13 H2 13 H1 14
Net Interest Margin Trajectory %
NIM H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014
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…Whilst Recognising and Managing the Constraints
Performance and outlook have improved dramatically; however, we are balanced about the challenges ahead…
Returning to Sustainable Economic Profitability Managing Legacy Issues Demonstrating ‘Focus’ is a form of Sustainable Advantage
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- Re-establish market position as competitive third retail banking
force
- Increase market share in lending and deposits
- Expand customer proposition and launch into SME
- Return to sustainable economic profitability
- Continue to deliver
Summary
Recap Priorities
- Losses abating for the first time since 2008
- Impairment charges reducing; arrears have peaked and are now
falling
- Strong funding position; deposit base expanding and cost of funds
falling
- Higher new lending volumes
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Agenda
Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – H1 2014 Highlights Glen Lucken, Group CFO – Financial Performance Shane O’Sullivan, Managing Director of AMU Jeremy Masding, Group CEO – Recap and Priorities Questions & Answers
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Appendix
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1 70 617 523 225 270 203 141 1,177 1,084
‐ 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Dec 13 Jun 14
Buy‐to‐Let NPLs
>90 Days Arrears/Legal Closures Technically Held Long Term Treated Splits (Treated But Impaired)
153 1,005 979 809 219 224 501 437 2,344 1,880
‐ 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Dec 13 Jun 14
Home Loans NPLs
>90 Days Arrears/Legal Closures Technically Held Long Term Treated Splits (Treated But Impaired)
NPL Analysis
- >90 Day arrears are falling….
- …but Treated Assets are making up an increasing proportion of total NPL stock which will
cause NPL stock to remain elevated.
€4,231m €4,355m €2,234m €2,088m
€m €m
€2,880m €1,351m €2,317m €2,038m €1,391m €843m €1,224m €863m
Note:
- “Technically Held” relate to assets which have not breached the standard delinquency triggers, but are classified as default, typically, through association with other defaulted assets.
- Numbers do not include Springboard Portfolio