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Alberta s Energy Industry s Energy Industry Alberta will the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alberta s Energy Industry s Energy Industry Alberta will the growth continue? will the growth continue? Marcel Coutu Marcel Coutu President, Chief Executive Officer President, Chief Executive Officer Canadian Oil Sands


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Alberta Alberta’ ’s Energy Industry s Energy Industry – – will the growth continue? will the growth continue?

Marcel Coutu Marcel Coutu

President, Chief Executive Officer President, Chief Executive Officer Canadian Oil Sands Limited, Canadian Oil Sands Limited, Manager of Canadian Oil Sands Trust Manager of Canadian Oil Sands Trust

O C T O B E R 2 4 , 2 0 0 7

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Certain statements and graphs throughout this presentation conta Certain statements and graphs throughout this presentation contain in “ “forward forward-

  • looking statements

looking statements” ”. Forward . Forward-

  • looking

looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements and graphs (collectively statements and graphs (collectively “ “statements statements” ”) with ) with respect to: 2007 expected payments to the Alberta government roy respect to: 2007 expected payments to the Alberta government royalties; the amount of oil and gas investment in alties; the amount of oil and gas investment in 2007 and beyond; levels and sources of Canadian oil production i 2007 and beyond; levels and sources of Canadian oil production in the future; the expectation as to Canada n the future; the expectation as to Canada’ ’s s placement relative to the rest of the world for crude oil produc placement relative to the rest of the world for crude oil production and reserves; the forecast relating to future tion and reserves; the forecast relating to future sustaining capital and operating cost; the forecast regarding co sustaining capital and operating cost; the forecast regarding combined expenditures; future royalties, provincial and mbined expenditures; future royalties, provincial and federal corporate taxes and specifics regarding housing and work federal corporate taxes and specifics regarding housing and workforce demand particularly in the Wood Buffalo force demand particularly in the Wood Buffalo region. region. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-

  • looking statements, as there can be no assurance that the

looking statements, as there can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or expectations upon which they are based will plans, intentions or expectations upon which they are based will occur. By their nature, forward

  • ccur. By their nature, forward-
  • looking statements

looking statements involve numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks and uncert involve numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, that contribute ainties, both general and specific, that contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, projections to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward and other forward-

  • looking statements will not occur.

looking statements will not occur. Although the Trust believes that the expectations represented by Although the Trust believes that the expectations represented by such forward such forward-

  • looking statements are reasonable,

looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to b there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Some of the risks and other factors which e correct. Some of the risks and other factors which could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward the forward-

  • looking statements contained in this

looking statements contained in this presentation include, but are not limited to: presentation include, but are not limited to: labour labour productivity issues; the difficulties and risks involved in sta productivity issues; the difficulties and risks involved in starting up rting up new projects and use of new technology; the general complexity i new projects and use of new technology; the general complexity in operating a large oil sands mining or SAGD and n operating a large oil sands mining or SAGD and refinery operations; product supply and demand for crude oil and refinery operations; product supply and demand for crude oil and its impact on projects being implemented or as its impact on projects being implemented or as expected; pipeline capacity; general economic conditions that im expected; pipeline capacity; general economic conditions that impact the supply of labor and natural gas in the Fort pact the supply of labor and natural gas in the Fort McMurray area; technological changes and improvements; the impre McMurray area; technological changes and improvements; the imprecision in estimating reserves and resources; cision in estimating reserves and resources; imprecision in estimating future productive capacity and operati imprecision in estimating future productive capacity and operating costs; changes in regulations, especially in the area ng costs; changes in regulations, especially in the area

  • f environmental matters.
  • f environmental matters.

You are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors i You are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward s not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward-

  • looking

looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the dat statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date of this presentation, and we do not undertake any e of this presentation, and we do not undertake any

  • bligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included f
  • bligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward
  • rward-
  • looking statements, whether as a result of new

looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward information, future events or otherwise. The forward-

  • looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly

looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. qualified by this cautionary statement. All comments with regard to future crude oil prices are my perso All comments with regard to future crude oil prices are my personal opinion and not that of Canadian Oil Sands Trust. nal opinion and not that of Canadian Oil Sands Trust.

Forward Forward-

  • looking information

looking information

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Agenda Agenda

  • Who are Syncrude and Canadian Oil Sands

Who are Syncrude and Canadian Oil Sands Trust? Trust?

  • Significance of the energy industry to our

Significance of the energy industry to our economy economy

  • The role of the oil sands sector

The role of the oil sands sector

  • Implications for employment, population

Implications for employment, population growth and housing growth and housing

  • Crude oil outlook

Crude oil outlook

  • Key challenges

Key challenges

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Peace River Peace River Athabasca Athabasca Cold Cold Lake Lake

Edmonton Calgary

  • Ft. McMurray

The Syncrude project The Syncrude project

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Syncrude joint venture ownership Syncrude joint venture ownership

COS.UN only pure play on Syncrude COS.UN only pure play on Syncrude

Petro Petro-

  • Canada

Canada

Canadian Oil Canadian Oil Sands Sands

Imperial Imperial Mocal Mocal Nexen Nexen Conoco/Phillips Conoco/Phillips Murphy Oil Murphy Oil

36.74% 36.74%

25% 25% 12% 12% 9.03% 9.03% 7.23% 7.23% 5% 5% 5% 5%

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The Syncrude project The Syncrude project

Mildred Lake upgrading facility Mildred Lake upgrading facility

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An oil sands mining operation An oil sands mining operation

The Syncrude project The Syncrude project

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Syncrude Syncrude’ ’s s economic contribution economic contribution

  • $50 billion spent on capital and operating expenditures

$50 billion spent on capital and operating expenditures – – directly into the economies of Alberta and the rest of directly into the economies of Alberta and the rest of Canada Canada --

  • - between 1979 and 2006

between 1979 and 2006

  • $4.2 billion in total economic contribution in 2006 with

$4.2 billion in total economic contribution in 2006 with about $3.7 billion benefiting the Alberta economy alone about $3.7 billion benefiting the Alberta economy alone

  • $1.1 billion in Crown royalties estimated to be paid to

$1.1 billion in Crown royalties estimated to be paid to Alberta government in 2007 Alberta government in 2007

  • Syncrude employs about 4,530 people in Alberta and

Syncrude employs about 4,530 people in Alberta and provides jobs for thousands of additional contractors provides jobs for thousands of additional contractors

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Importance of Oil and Natural Gas Importance of Oil and Natural Gas Industry to Canadian Economy Industry to Canadian Economy

  • Industry expected to pay $26 billion to governments in 2007

Industry expected to pay $26 billion to governments in 2007

  • Oil and Gas now accounts for

Oil and Gas now accounts for

  • 25% of private sector investment in Canada

25% of private sector investment in Canada

  • 30% of value on the Toronto Stock Exchange

30% of value on the Toronto Stock Exchange

  • Projected to invest $45 billion in Canada in 2007

Projected to invest $45 billion in Canada in 2007

  • Largest single private sector investor in Canada

Largest single private sector investor in Canada

  • Oil and gas trade accounts for 81% of Canada

Oil and gas trade accounts for 81% of Canada’ ’s trade s trade surplus and 14% of total exports surplus and 14% of total exports

  • Employment near 500,000 in Canada

Employment near 500,000 in Canada

Source: CAPP

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Global Crude Oil Reserves Global Crude Oil Reserves

Source: CAPP and Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2005

22 36 41 60 80 92 99 115 136 179 260

50 100 150 200 250 300

Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Venezuela Russia Libya N igeria United States

billion barrels Includes 174 billion barrels

  • f oil sands reserves

Canada, with 174 billion barrels in oil sands reserves, ranks 2nd only to Saudi Arabia in global oil reserves

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Canadian Oil Production Canadian Oil Production

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 thousand barrels per day

Source: CAPP

Western Canadian Conventional Oil Oil Sands Offshore

Actual Forecast Oil Sands Production: 2006 = 1.1 million b/d 2015 = 3.0-3.4 mm b/d 2020 = 3.8-4.4 mm b/d

Moderate Growth Case

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Top 10 World Crude Oil Producers in 2006 Top 10 World Crude Oil Producers in 2006

2 4 6 8 10

Norway Venezuela UAE Canada 2006 Mexico China Iran USA Saudi Arabia Russia

Million Barrels per Day

Source: EIA & CAPP

Oil sands growth is projected to move Canada from #7 to #4 in the world by 2015

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  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 $ million Cdn Sustaining Capital Operating Costs

Sustaining Capital & Operating Costs Sustaining Capital & Operating Costs Forecast Forecast

2007 Forecast: all Alberta oil sands related projects – including mines, insitu, upgraders, pipeline and co-gen plants. 100% all announced case.

Actual Forecast

Operating Costs Sustaining Capital Sustaining Capital: Year 2007 - $2.0B Year 2017 - $5.0 B Operating Costs: Year 2007 – $9.0 B Year 2017 - $22.6 B Source: Athabasca Regional Issues Working Group (RIWG) and Nichols Applied Management

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  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 $ million Cdn Sustaining Capital Operating Costs Construction Capital Expenditure

Combined Expenditures Forecast Combined Expenditures Forecast

Source: CAPP, Nichols Applied Management Construction Capital Sustaining Capital Operating Costs

Actual Forecast

2007 Forecast: All Alberta oil sands related projects – including mines, insitu, upgraders, pipeline and co-gen plants. 100% all announced case.

2007 2007 2017 2017 Construction Construction Capital Capital $15.8B $15.8B $7.3B $7.3B Operating Operating Costs Costs $9.0B $9.0B $22.6B $22.6B Sustaining Sustaining Capital Capital $2.0B $2.0B $5.0B $5.0B TOTAL TOTAL $26.8B $26.8B $34.9B $34.9B

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  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $ million Cdn Oil Sands Royalties Corporate Tax Payments Alberta Corporate Tax Payments Federal

Royalties, Provincial & Federal Royalties, Provincial & Federal Corporate Taxes Corporate Taxes

2007 Forecast: Based on oil price of WTI US$60/bbl. 100% all announced case.

Actual Forecast Royalties AB Corporate Tax Federal Corporate Tax

Source: Nichols Applied Management; Input assumes $0.87 exchange rate

Year 2017: AB Corp. Tax - $2.4B

  • Fed. Corp. Tax - $3.7B

Royalties - $4.4B Year 2007: AB Corp. Tax - $794M

  • Fed. Corp. Tax - $887M

Royalties - $1.8B

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Construction Workforce Outlook Construction Workforce Outlook

Source: CAPP and Construction Owners Association of Alberta (COAA) Oct 2006 CNRL – Horizon Phases 1 &2 IOL – Mackenzie Gas Project OPTI Canada/ Nexen Upgrader IOL Cold Lake Suncor Firebag & Voyageur Albian Sands – Jackpine & Upgrader Expansion PC/UTS Fort Hill Conoco Surmont Petro Canada Synenco Northern Lights Phases 1 & 2 Joslyn Syncrude UE1 & SERP Northwest Syncrude North American

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7

Cumulative New Operations Jobs

Oil Sands Permanent Operations Jobs Oil Sands Permanent Operations Jobs

Source: Nichols Applied Management

2007 Forecast: Cumulative permanent operations jobs for oil sands projects located in the Wood Buffalo Region (does not include construction jobs)

Actual Forecast 1998 ~ 6,600 people directly employed by oil sands 2007 ~ Over 5,000 new jobs ~ nearly double 1998 jobs 2017 ~ 18,500 new jobs ~ nearly triple 1998 jobs

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7

Population Census-Fort McMurray/Saprae Cr. Discounted Case Total Development Case Actual Forecast

Wood Buffalo Urban Population Wood Buffalo Urban Population Forecast Forecast

2007 Forecast – Urban Population – Fort McMurray Urban Service Area/Saprae Creek. Does not include over 20,000 workers currently in work camps and hotels/motels 67,067

Average annual population increase of 9% over past 7 years and expected average through to 2010

Source: RMWB Census & Nichols Applied Management

RIWG’s population forecast process has been approved by a third party audit performed by Deloitte Touche

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

# Housing Units Required

Total Built Total Demand

Wood Buffalo Urban Housing Demand Wood Buffalo Urban Housing Demand Forecast Forecast

Source: Nichols Applied Management; 1 – Fort McMurray, Edmonton, Calgary Real Estate Boards July 07, 2 – CMHC – Spring 07

2007 Cumulative housing demand forecast for Fort McMurray

Current Avg. SF House Price1 Fort McMurray $605,495 Edmonton $417,150 Calgary $505,920 Current Avg. Rent – 2 bdrm2 Fort McMurray $1,680 Edmonton $ 877 Calgary $1,037

  • Supply / Demand Gap indicated

by high and rising housing costs

  • Timely land release plays a critical

role in the solution

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Job and population growth outlook for Job and population growth outlook for Alberta Alberta

  • Population

Population

  • In 2006, Alberta

In 2006, Alberta’ ’s population grew at a nation s population grew at a nation-

  • leading

leading 3.0% 3.0% -

  • triple the Canadian growth rate

triple the Canadian growth rate

  • Employment

Employment

  • In 2006, Alberta had the highest

In 2006, Alberta had the highest labour labour force force participation rate among the provinces at 73.4%, 6.2% participation rate among the provinces at 73.4%, 6.2% higher than the national average. At the same time, higher than the national average. At the same time, Alberta also had the highest employment rate among the Alberta also had the highest employment rate among the provinces at 70.8% and the lowest unemployment rate provinces at 70.8% and the lowest unemployment rate at 3.4% at 3.4%

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$634 $102 $53 $96 Alberta Ontario Other Canada Foreign

GDP Activity Distribution

($885 Billion)

Source: CAPP and CERI – Economic Impacts of Alberta’s Oil Sands, Oct 2005

Economic Benefits from Oil Sands Economic Benefits from Oil Sands 2000 2000 – – 2020 Study Period 2020 Study Period

16% 11% 17% 56% Alberta Ontario Other Canada Foreign

Employment Impact Distribution

(6.6 Million person-years)

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$ Billions

Canadian Governments Revenue from Canadian Governments Revenue from Oil Sands (2000 Oil Sands (2000 – – 2020) 2020)

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140

Municipalities Municipalities Other Provinces Other Provinces Alberta Alberta Govt Govt Federal Federal Govt Govt

9% 36 % 41 % 14%

Personal Income Tax 25% Royalty 22% Indirect Tax 15% Corporate Tax 20% Property Tax 18%

By Jurisdiction By Source

$123 Billion

Source: CERI – Economic Impacts of Alberta’s Oil Sands, Oct 2005

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Historical crude oil prices Historical crude oil prices

Historical Monthly Average WTI - April 1998 to September 2007 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90

A p r

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WTI

US$WTI C$WTI

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Crude oil prices in the future? Crude oil prices in the future?

  • Expect prices to remain strong because

Expect prices to remain strong because… …

  • Economies can sustain oil prices of US$50/bbl +

Economies can sustain oil prices of US$50/bbl +

  • Transportation fuel demand is robust

Transportation fuel demand is robust

  • Global spare capacity less than 1 MM bpd (1%)

Global spare capacity less than 1 MM bpd (1%)

  • Supply disruption vulnerability is extreme

Supply disruption vulnerability is extreme

  • New prospect availability/access is scarce

New prospect availability/access is scarce

  • Crude oil reservoirs on average decline at 5

Crude oil reservoirs on average decline at 5-

  • 15%

15% annually annually

  • OPEC can only protect price downside

OPEC can only protect price downside

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Key challenges Key challenges

  • Trust taxation

Trust taxation

  • New environmental measures

New environmental measures (CO (CO2

2 emissions)

emissions)

  • Crown royalties review

Crown royalties review

  • Other changes to fiscal regime

Other changes to fiscal regime (accelerated capital cost allowance already (accelerated capital cost allowance already gone gone… …) )

  • Tight supply of skilled

Tight supply of skilled labour labour

  • Pressures on regional infrastructure

Pressures on regional infrastructure

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Conclusion Conclusion

  • Oil sands are a key driver of the economy

Oil sands are a key driver of the economy

  • Growth is expected to continue

Growth is expected to continue

  • Outlook for crude oil prices remains positive

Outlook for crude oil prices remains positive

  • But

But… …we need a supportive royalty and fiscal we need a supportive royalty and fiscal regime regime