Alberta Energy and Capacity Presentation to AESO Adequacy and Demand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Alberta Energy and Capacity Presentation to AESO Adequacy and Demand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alberta Energy and Capacity Presentation to AESO Adequacy and Demand Curve Working Group August 9, 2017 By Richard Penn IPCAA De Definiti tions Alberta Internal Load (AIL) - The total electricity consumption within the province of


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Alberta Energy and Capacity

Presentation to AESO Adequacy and Demand Curve Working Group August 9, 2017 By Richard Penn IPCAA

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De Definiti tions

  • Alberta Internal Load (AIL) - The total electricity consumption within

the province of Alberta, including behind-the-fence (BTF) load, the City of Medicine Hat and losses (transmission and distribution).

  • Demand Transmission Service (DTS) - means the total, in an hour, of

all metered demands under Rate DTS

  • System load - means the total, in an hour, of all metered demands

under Rate DTS, Rate FTS and Rate DOS of the ISO tariff plus transmission system losses.

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Al Albe berta Historical Monthl hly y Ene Energy gy and nd De Deman and f from J July ly 2 2011 th through June June 2017

  • Extracted from AESO Monthly Reports and the DTS data from the

AESO’s Operating Reserve Supplement

https://www.aeso.ca/rules-standards-and-tariff/tariff/operating-reserve-charge-supplement-2/

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6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Monthly Peak Demand in MW Month

Monthly Peak = AIL vs DTS from July 2011 to June 2017

AIL Peak Demand DTS Peak Demand

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4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Monthly Energy in GWh

MONTH

Monthly Energy - AIL vs DTS from July 2011 to June 2017

DTS AIL

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AE AESO O Dema Demand Forec ecast t Co Comp mparisons

  • Extracted from the AESO Long-Term Outlook Reports
  • 2012 to 2017 AIL forecast error is 1570 MW
  • 2012 to 2017 System Load forecast error is 1700 MW
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7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Peak Demand in MW YEAR

TOTAL AIL PEAK LOAD Actuals from 2001 to 2016 and Forecasts in LTO

Actual 2007 2008 2009 2012 LTO 2014 LTO 2016 LTO 2017 LTO Linear (Actual)

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6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Annual Peak Demand in MW Year

DTS / SYSTEM PEAK LOAD Actuals 2007 to 2016 and LTO Forecast Comparison

Actual 2007 2008 2009 2012 LTO 2014 LTO 2016 LTO 2017 LTO Linear (Actual)

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AE AESO O Ene Energy gy Forecast Co Compa pariso sons ns

  • Extracted from previous AESO Long-term outlooks
  • Latest 2017 LTO is following slope of historical actuals
  • 2012 to 2016 AIL forecast error is 9,887 GWh (12.4 % error)
  • 2012 to 2016 System Load forecast error is 10,438 GWh (16.8 % error)
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50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Annual Energy in GWh

AIL Actual Annual Energy versus forecast from 2006 through 2017 LTO

Actual Forecast 2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2012 Forecast 2014 LTO 2016 LTO 2017

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50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Annual Energy in GWh

YEAR

System Load Annual Energy versus forecast from 2006 through 2017 LTO

Actual Forecast 2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2012 System Load 2014 System Load 2016 System Load 2017 Linear (Actual)