Alberta Energy and Capacity Presentation to AESO Adequacy and Demand Curve Working Group August 9, 2017 By Richard Penn IPCAA
De Definiti tions • Alberta Internal Load (AIL) - The total electricity consumption within the province of Alberta, including behind-the-fence (BTF) load, the City of Medicine Hat and losses (transmission and distribution). • Demand Transmission Service (DTS ) - means the total, in an hour, of all metered demands under Rate DTS • System load - means the total, in an hour, of all metered demands under Rate DTS, Rate FTS and Rate DOS of the ISO tariff plus transmission system losses.
Al Albe berta Historical Monthl hly y Ene Energy gy and nd De Deman and f from J July ly 2 2011 th through June June 2017 • Extracted from AESO Monthly Reports and the DTS data from the AESO’s Operating Reserve Supplement https://www.aeso.ca/rules-standards-and-tariff/tariff/operating-reserve-charge-supplement-2/
Monthly Peak Demand in MW 10000 11000 12000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Jul-11 Monthly Peak = AIL vs DTS from July 2011 to June Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 AIL Peak Demand Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 2017 Month Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 DTS Peak Demand Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17
Monthly Energy in GWh 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 Jul-11 Monthly Energy - AIL vs DTS from July 2011 to June Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 DTS 2017 Jan-14 Apr-14 MONTH Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 AIL Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17
AE AESO O Dema Demand Forec ecast t Co Comp mparisons • Extracted from the AESO Long-Term Outlook Reports • 2012 to 2017 AIL forecast error is 1570 MW • 2012 to 2017 System Load forecast error is 1700 MW
TOTAL AIL PEAK LOAD Actuals from 2001 to 2016 and Forecasts in LTO 19000 17000 Peak Demand in MW 15000 13000 11000 Actual 2007 2008 2009 9000 2012 LTO 2014 LTO 2016 LTO 2017 LTO Linear (Actual) 7000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 YEAR
DTS / SYSTEM PEAK LOAD Actuals 2007 to 2016 and LTO Forecast Comparison 18000 Actual 2007 16000 2008 2009 2012 LTO 2014 LTO Annual Peak Demand in MW 2016 LTO 2017 LTO 14000 Linear (Actual) 12000 10000 8000 6000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 Year
AE AESO O Ene Energy gy Forecast Co Compa pariso sons ns • Extracted from previous AESO Long-term outlooks • Latest 2017 LTO is following slope of historical actuals • 2012 to 2016 AIL forecast error is 9,887 GWh (12.4 % error) • 2012 to 2016 System Load forecast error is 10,438 GWh (16.8 % error)
AIL Actual Annual Energy versus forecast from 2006 through 2017 LTO 150000 140000 Actual Forecast 2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 130000 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2012 120000 Forecast 2014 LTO 2016 110000 LTO 2017 Annual Energy in GWh 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
System Load Annual Energy versus forecast from 2006 through 2017 LTO 130,000 Actual Forecast 2006 120,000 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 110,000 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2012 Annual Energy in GWh 100,000 System Load 2014 System Load 2016 System Load 2017 90,000 Linear (Actual) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 YEAR
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