Agenda Introduction Evolution of containerization Canadian - - PDF document

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The Changing Face of Containerization

James Frost, MA, MBA, CMC October 7, 2015

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Agenda

• Introduction
• Evolution of containerization
• Canadian context
• The Future
• Conclusions

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Personal background

• Started career in 1980
• Containerization was 20 years
• ld but still evolving
• Have seen 35 years of

development

• Travelled globally at young age

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Background cont’d

• Experienced and saw early

stages of globalization in Asian Tigers

• Has fascinated me as both a

historian, a participant and consultant in shipping industry

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Containerisation

• “invented” by Malcolm MacLean, a

US trucker, in 1956

– “Ideal X” between NY and Houston – A converted tanker

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But…

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The concept

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The concept…

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The concept

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Early development

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1970s

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1970s

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1980s

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1980s

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Intermodalism

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Intermodalism cont’d

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APL Linertrain

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1990s

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1990s

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1990s

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1990s

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1990s

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1990s

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Global networks

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2000-2015

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Vessel Size

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Evolution of ships

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RANK PORT COUNTRY TEUS 1 Shanghai China 33,617,000 2 Singapore Singapore 32,578,700 3 Shenzhen China 23,278,000 4 Hong Kong China 22,352,000 5 Busan South Korea 17,611,882 6 Ningbo China 17,326,800 7 Qingdao China 15,520,000 8 Guangzhou China 15,309,200 9 Dubai Ports United Arab Emirates 13,600,000 10 Tianjin China 12,996,510 11 Rotterdam Netherlands 11,664,195 12 Port Kelang Malasyia 10,350,410 13 Kaohsiung Taiwan 9,978,857 14 Dalian China 9,912,000 15 Hamburg Germany 9,257,358 16 Antwerp Belgium 8,578,269 17 Xiamen China 8,007,900 18 Los Angeles United States 7,868,572 19 Tanjung Pelepas Malasyia 7,416,518 20 Long Beach United States 6,730,573 21 Laem Chabang Thailand 6,041,476 22 Bremen/Bremerhaven Germany 5,830,711 23 Lianyungang China 5,488,000 24 New York / New Jersey United States 5,467,345 25 Tanjung Priok Indonesia 5,466,048 26 Yingkou China 5,301,000 27 Saigon Port Co. LTD Viet Nam 5,112,319 28 Tokyo Japan 4,885,271 29 Jeddah Saudi Arabia 4,561,364 30 Valencia Spain 4,327,838 TEUs - Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units

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Canada

• Montreal - Manchester Liners -

1968

• Halifax – Halterm - 1969
• Saint John – Brunterm - 1971
• Vancouver – Centerm &

Vanterm – 1971 & 1975

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Canadian container volumes 1970-2014

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Canadian ports - 2014

• Total market

5.6M TEUs

• Vancouver

3M

• Montreal

1.4M

• Prince Rupert

600k

• Halifax

400k

• Saint John

100k

• St. John’s

100k

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The Future

• Expansions at:

– Vancouver – Prince Rupert – Montreal – Saint John – Extension completed at Halifax – New terminals?

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The Future

• Gradual shift of mfg westward

– Growth of Vietnam, ISC – Africa?

• Growing importance of intra-

Asia

– Now top 3 trade

• Near-shoring?
• Back to Mexico and Central

America / Caribbean

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The Future

• Shift from west to east coast

(mostly US)

– Asia Suez had larger share as of late 2014 – Fewer but bigger ships

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The Future

• Impact of Expanded Panama

Canal

– Ships increase from 5,000-13,000 TEUs – a “non-event” or significant?

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Panama Expansion

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Impact on Montreal

• New expansion underway

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Saint John

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Big Ships

• Impact of larger vessels

– When do they arrive on west coast – When do they arrive on east coast?

• Largest now 10,000 TEU
• EC Canada – 8,700 TEU

– Service rotations?

• Pendulums?

– Impact on ports esp in US

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Channel Depths - Rodrigue

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Big Ships - Pendulum

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CETA

• Not ratified
• Commodities

– Seafood – Beef – Pork – Cheese – Auto parts

• shipping aspects

– Feeder – Montreal-Halifax

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TPP

• Overall increase in trade with

12 countries

• Details in next few days?

– Dairy – Auto parts

• Given changing trade patterns

will impact west and east coast ports

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Summary

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Thank-you! James Frost defrost@marinova.com 902-429-3121