AFRICA: PALEO-PERSPECTIVES ON WATER AND LAND COVER WITH EMPHASIS ON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AFRICA: PALEO-PERSPECTIVES ON WATER AND LAND COVER WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AFRICA

• Dr. Daniel O. Olago

Department of Geology University of Nairobi Nairobi, Kenya

Email: Dolago@uonbi.ac.ke

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Role and Significance of Palaeo-research in Africa

Palaeo-environmental and palaeoclimatic research in Africa is of great importance for several reasons.

It provides a historical perspective on past variability due to natural and human

causes, and thus provides a baseline for efficient long-term management of natural resources

Meteorological records and written observations are limited to the very recent past

(often only the past few decades); thus data on longer term cyclical fluctuations is very limited, as is our understanding of how these impact on regional environments and human societies, or how these various components interact.

It is noted, for example, that during the late Holocene when natural forcings and

boundary conditions were similar to today, climate variability often exceeded anything that is seen in modern instrumental records (Oldfield and Alverson 2003). Knowledge

• f long-term climate change, therefore, is necessary in order to assess the significance
• f historically documented, and modern-day climate change.

Palaeo-research also enables us to estimate better the range or 'envelope' of natural

climate variability under boundary conditions similar to the present, and also to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic perturbations of the climate system.

It enables us to recognise locally and regionally significant human impacts, and is

critical in the development and testing of models which can then be used to simulate future climate change and trends.

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Palaeo-proxies in Africa

Instrumental climate records (very short), Documentary (scarce), Marine sediments, Lake sediments, Peat, Groundwater, Corals, Speleothems, Tree rings, ice (glaciers) Proxies include pollen, diatoms, foraminifera, dinoflagellates, geochemistry, stable isotopes, alkenones etc. Information derived includes: precipitation, temperature, ecosystem dynamics, palaeoproductivity, SST, LST, salinity, ventilation, sediment provenance, dust deposition, etc.

From Verschuren and Eggermont

tree rings varved lake sedim ents speleothem s corals ice cores tree rings varved lake sedim ents speleothem s corals ice cores docum entary tree rings ice cores corals speleothem s lakes docum entary tree rings ice cores corals speleothem s lakes

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Lake Basin Initiation from 8 to 0 Ma

From Tiercelin and Lezzar, 2002

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Gasse, 2005; Cerling, 1992; Cerling and Hay, 1988 Trauth et al., 2005

Water and land cover from 3 to 0 Ma

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Orbital Forcing of Climate Over the Past 3 Ma: Examples

Chemeron Formation, Central Kenya Rift – diatomite/fluvial cycles, reflect precession (ca. 2.66-2.55 Ma) (Deino et al. 2006) Palaeohydrological studies of Lake Naivasha show that high lake levels at 135,000, 110,000, 90,000 and 66,000 yr BP precisely matich spring insolation at the equator without any significant lag (Trauth et al., 2001) Freshwater diatom species in equatorial Atlantic core (Prell, 1984) and stable carbon isotope variation in an equatorial maar lake (Olago et al., 2000) show that the precession cycle and its higher order harmonics influence winds and precipitation cycles Eccentricity and precessional cycles also seen in granulometric analysis of sediments of the Tswaing impact crater lake in the northern part of south Africa (Partridge et al., 1997); Sedimentation rates off the coast of SW Africa (Gorgas and Wilkens, 2002).

(Trauth et al., 2001)

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The Last Glacial Maximum

Climatic conditions were generally colder, drier and windier than present Many lake basins experienced drastically reduced water levels and/or desiccation and deflation Present Sahelian area and extensive dune building reached 300-400km south of the present Sahara-Sahel boundary; 60% less precipitation than today over the Kalahari region Expansion of C4 grasses at the expense of montane forests as a consequence of lower temperatures, low glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and reduced precipitation In the lowlands, tropical forest cover appears to have been reduced and/or replaced by tropical seasonal forest; miombo forest and mangrove areas were considerably reduced

Petit-Maire, 1995 Hastenrath, 1991

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Palaeoclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum in Africa

From: Odada and Olago, 2005

Tropical precipitation at the LGM (relative to present). Area % Rainfall Source Ziway-Shala Basin, Ethiopia (7° to 8°30’N)

• 9 to -32

Street, 1979 Southern Africa +150 to +200 Lancaster, 1979; Shaw, 1986 East and Central Africa (between 4°S to 12°N and 28°E to 42°E)

• 30

Bonnefille et al., 1990 Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania

• 15

Vincens et al., 1993 Tropical temperature lowering at the LGM (relative to present). Area Temperature Source (°C) Proxy Eastern Colombian Andes, South America

• 6 to -7

Pollen Van Der Hammen, 1974 Wonderkrater, South Africa

• 5 to -6

Pollen Scott, 1990 Sacred Lake, Mount Kenya

• 5 to -8

Pollen Coetzee, 1967 New Guinea

• 7 to -11

Pollen Flenley, 1979a Muchoya Swamp, Uganda

• 5 to -8

Pollen Morrison, 1968 Lake Tanganyika, north basin, Tanzania

• 5 to -6

Pollen Vincens, 1989a East and Central Africa (between 4°S to 12°N and 28°E to 42°E)

• 4±2

Pollen Bonnefille et al., 1990 Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania

• 4.2 ±3.6

Pollen Vincens et al., 1993 Mount Elgon, Kenya

• 3.5

ELA Hamilton and Perrott, 1979 High Semyen, Ethiopia

• 7

ELA Hurni, 1981 Mount Kenya, Kenya

• 5

ELA Osmaston, 1975 Ehiopian Mountains

• 7

ELA Hurni, 1981 South America

• 7 to -9

ELA Weingarten et al., 1991 Cascade Ranges, North America

• 4

ELA Porter et al., 1986 Global average (glaciers)

• 4.2 to -

6.5 ELA Broecker and Denton, 1990

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Deglaciation and the Younger Dryas

Considerable amplification of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

• ccurred between 15,000 and 6,000 yr B.P. due to changes in both perihelion and

axial tilt.

Step-wise changes (lakes) towards wetter conditions in response to both

insolation forcing and feedback processes with changes in oceanic circulation and sea surface conditions in Western Africa

The abrupt and spectacular lake level rise in intertropical Africa at about 15ka

BP is though to have been triggered by insolation changes, reaching 4.2% above modern values that produced a non-linear hydrological response

In southern Africa, geomorphological, pollen and stable isotope studies

suggest a rapid increase of temperature towards present day values from about 18-17.5ka BP – thus the deglacial warming in the southernmost part of Africa begun about 3000 years earlier than in the northern hemisphere

Rapid retreat of tropical mountain glaciers at a rate of about 200m per 1000

years from about 15,000 yr BP

Gradual resurgence of vegetation to conditions existing today A dry interlude corresponding to the Younger Dryas event is evident in some

lakes at about 11.5ka BP and was associated with a temperature drop of 2°C in Lake Malawi

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The Early Holocene

Seasonal contrasts (radiation) between 11 and 10 Ka BP were about 7% greater during the summer and 7% less during the winter as compared to today across the low and middle latitudes of both hemispheres, and increased heating of the land surface Nearly all lakes from equatorial region to Sahara/Sahel were high: 9,000 and 4,500 yr B.P, saw the advent of the Green Sahara Rapid expansion and reconstitution of lowland forest and rise of treeline in montane areas

These changes coincided with the acceleration in global warming, and reflected increased

atmospheric water vapour and precipitation due to higher SSTs and evaporation over land and sea Southern hemisphere of Africa was dry compared to the rest of Africa: wetter at ca.5000 yr BP.

Tropical precipitation during the Holocene (relative to present) (modified from Odada and Olago, 2005). Area Time Period (yr BP) Rainfall Source mm/yr % Ziway-Shala Basin, Ethiopia 9,400 to 8,000

• +25

Street, 1979; Gillespie et al., 1983 Turkana basin 10,000 to 7,000 +80 to +140 +10 to +19 Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1983 Lake Turkana, Kenya 10,000 to 4,000 +200 +27 Vincens, 1989 Nakuru-Elmenteita basin 10,000 to 8,000 +260 to +300 +29 to +33 Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1983 Nakuru-Elmenteita basin 10,000 to 8,000 +260 to +300 +45# Dühnforth et al., 2006 Naivasha basin 9,200 to 5,650 +90 to +155 +10 to +17 Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1983 Naivasha basin 9,000

• +11 to +16*

Bergner et al., 2003 #The authors propose a significant subsurface flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru- Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. *If the adaptation and migration of vegetation and subsequent higher transpiration were introduced into the model, the hydroclimatic conditions in the catchment would be characterized by a 28–32% increase in mean annual precipitation.

Maximum temperatures were at least about 2º C higher than present

• ver

Lake Malawi, consistent with temperatures of + 1 to above + 2º C derived from pollen data for the East Africa region.

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The Holocene

Several post-glacial short-term anomalies occur during a state of apparent stability of external boundary conditions ⇒ tropical climate is very sensitive to subtle changes in/of its forcing mechanisms, e.g.

SSTs, cross-equatorial heat transport by ocean surface currents

that affect monsoonal climate domains.

Abrupt dry periods in the Holocene also coincide with the broad

period of enhanced seasonal contrasts and weak El Nino conditions. Reasons for the abrupt desiccation event between 8-7Ka are not well understood, and this is the general case for other Holocene events. It coincides with:

a cooling and salinity lowering event in the north Atlantic strong interhemispheric contrasts in Atlantic SSTs related to less

efficient export of heat from the south to the north Drier conditions were established ca.5,000 yr BP. This dry phase in the tropics has been partly related to

• rbital variations as the solar radiation peak at 9,000 yr BP

returned to near modern values by 5,000 yr BP

a low salinity event in the northeast Atlantic changes in Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature regime, and the

establishment of El Nino conditions at this time

ENSO connections with tropical Atlantic SST Above coupling with large changes in Africa’s land surface

conditions (e.g. vegetation cover)

[A] Stager et al. 2003 [B] Gasse 2003; [C] Moy et al. 2002

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The Past 2000 Years

The palaeoclimate records of north and east Africa, and the Americas, indicate with high confidence that droughts lasting decades or longer were a recurrent feature of climate over the last two millennia, and that under gradual climate forcings (e.g. orbital), the climate system can change abruptly Decadal scale droughts and intervening wet periods in Lake Naivasha are attributed to high and low phases of solar radiation, respectively (Verschuren et al., 2000). A similar record has been documented at Loboi Plain (between Lakes Baringo and Bogoria), where abrupt wetland formation is related to a climate shift from drier conditions associated with the mid-Holocene and Medieval Warm Period (~ AD 800–1270), to wetter conditions associated with the Little Ice Age (~ AD 1270–1850) (Driese et al., 2004). Further northeast in Ethiopia, similar conditions prevailed (Lamb et al., 2007). Contrasting (out-of-phase) data from western Uganda during this period highlights the strongly regional nature of century scale climate dynamics on the African continent (Russell et al., 2007).

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Recent Times: Hydrology

High levels: in Lakes Turkana and Naivasha in the 1890s; in Lakes Victoria, Turkana, Naivasha, Elementeita, Nakuru, Edward, Albert, and Lake Tanganyika in the early 1960s Lake Naivasha level decline in intervening period was attributed to a decreasing rainfall trend averaging about 5 mm yr-1 over the basin (1920-49) and increasing human consumption from river influents and borehole pumping While there are indications that the Indian monsoon rainfall has been decreasing over the past century and that its variation over the past century is not outside of the range of the past 800 years (Burns et al., 2002), strong correlations are observed between the Coral Dipole Index (CDI) for the Indian Ocean and Niño 3.4 index between 1860 and 1895, and after 1960 (Charles et al., 2003), coinciding with the high lake levels periods in east Africa. This suggests that the observed decadal scale rainfall variability both spatially and in terms of amount in the east Africa region may be related to variations in the strengths and to the degree and phase of interaction between ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, deep westerly airstreams from the Atlantic, and the Congo air mass. To a lesser and more subdued extent, the large water bodies (e.g. Lake Victoria), sharp topographic divides and land cover changes may modulate the signal interaction of these climate modes and systems, and contribute to mean trends over long (centennial to millennial) timescales.

Charles et al., 2003 Grove et al., 1996

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Recent Times: Land Cover

Anthropogenic land cover changes are proceeding at a rate unprecedented in the past Most of the impacts of land cover change are archived in coastal and marine sediments The examples from Lake Victoria (below) and Indian Ocean sediments off the coast of Malindi, Kenya, indicate that these impacts begun to be felt from about 1900 AD The earth’s land cover and soil characteristics are now in a constant state of erosive dynamic flux. What does this mean for the delicately balanced climate system??

Fleitmann et al. 2007 Verschuren et al., 2000

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Thresholds and Tipping Points

From: Olago et al., 2007

In central and eastern Africa, the end of the Holocene humid phase occurred at about 5,500 cal yr BP when gradually declining boreal summer insolation crossed a threshold value of 4.2%

greater than present, a similar insolation threshold that coincided with abrupt tropical lake level

rises during the early deglacial warming In the mid-Holocene, maximum temperatures were at least about 2º C higher than present

• ver Lake Malawi at about 5,000 yr BP; consistent with temperatures of + 1 to above + 2º C derived

from pollen data for the East Africa region. The general aridification trend for the northern hemisphere of Africa is attributed to strongly non-

linear sea surface temperatures, vegetation, and albedo feedbacks in relation to the

gradually declining insolation trend (e.g. Claussen et al. 1999; Umer et al. 2004). In southern Africa, the southward spreading of the summer-rain moisture related to the

I TCZ during the middle and late Holocene was characterized by strong centennial scale variability over different regions of the interior (Scott and Lee-Thorpe 2004).

Apparently small changes in precipitation, if persistent in a positive or negative mode, can

result in large hydrological responses, affecting environment and human civilisations

Accelerated, anthropogenically driven land cover changes may significantly alter the

dynamic balance of the climate feedback factors and thereby also induce non-linear and

surprising climate system changes

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Conclusion: Palaeoperspectives on Future Change in Africa

More high-resolution proxy records with wide spatial coverage are required in order to differentiate between local and regional impacts, and between human-induced and natural change, and to better understand the decadal and longer timescales of climate behaviour in order to be better prepared for future climate change (Olago and Odada 2004). There is strong circumstantial link between climate change and human migration/evolution over long timescales that needs to be better constrained and explained Climate change/human society link is a pertinent today, given the huge and rapid anthropogenic impacts on water land cover plus feedback effects Need to explore more the issues of thresholds/tipping points to help constrain the range of ‘surprise’ climate scenarios The sustainable development and protection of food security will require agricultural management strategies adjusted to major long-term variation in water-resource availability (and land cover), irrespective of any future effects of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrological cycle (cf. Verschuren et al. 2000). Palaeo-data needed for generation of more robust predictive (regional) models that can be used for analysis and formulation of long-term sustainable development options in areas such as food security and land management (Olago and Odada 2004).